Mr. Armchair's 2014 Super Bowl Prop Bet Preview

So every year I always lay down some coin on the novelty Super Bowl Prop bets.  It's a good way to make the game more entertaining, while potentially making some cash.  I normally only put a buck or two down on some of the fun ones; nothing too costly.  I don't like risking too much on what color Gatorade will be dumped on the head coach (will get to that one in a minute).

So now here is the Mr. Armchair Prop Bet Preview -


1.  Super Bowl MVP -

Wes Welker, WR Denver  28/1 - $1.00 to win $28.00
Doug Baldwin, WR Seattle  40/1 - $1.00 to win $40.00

QB's are always the favorite to win Super Bowl MVP, that is why the odds are always so bad.  It's not worth even putting down the dollar.  We all know that if Denver wins Peyton will be a garuanteed lock to win the Super Bowl MVP, and the same can most likely be said for Russell Wilson if Seattle wins.  So why not shoot for the moon here and possibly score huge?

2.  Who will the Super Bowl MVP mention first in his speech?

Teammates 1/1 - $1.00 to win $1.00
God 3/1 - $1.00 to win $3.00

This one I had to do two bets to cover each team.  I'm assuming here that either Manning or Wilson will win the MVP Award if their team's win.  If Manning wins, he will most likely thank his teammates first.  Last time Manning won the Super Bowl and the MVP Award, he thanked his teammates first in his speech (YouTube verified).  If Wilson wins, he is a noted Christian and loves God, thanks him all the time.  He will most surely thank God first in his speech.

3.  What color will the Gatorade be that is dumped on the Head Coach of the winning Super Bowl team?

Orange 5/4 - $1.00 to win $1.25
Blue 8/1 - $1.00 to win $8.00

I normally side with what are the team colors or jersey colors.  In this case, I really like the Blue bet here because if Denver wins, orange and blue are both in the teams color scheme, and Seattle will be dawning their road blue jersey.  Denver is also in their home orange jerseys, hence the hedging of orange and blue.

4.  Will Richard Sherman receive a pass interference penalty in the game?

Yes +150 - $1.00 to win $1.50

Seattle plays a ton of bump and run man coverage, and their DB's are big and physical.  It's what makes them a great defense, but it also makes them accessible to drawing a lot of PI penalties.  Sherman himself is good for at least one PI penalty called on him.

5.  Will any member of the Red Hot Chilli Peppers be shirtless during their performance?

Yes -250 - $1.00 to win $0.40

This is a terrible bet odds wise, but I just couldn't pass it up.  I don't think Flea even owns a shirt.

6.  Will the announcers refer to Russell Wilson being drafted in the MLB?

Yes even - $1.00 to win $1.00

Is Jerome Bettis from Detroit?

7.  How many times will Peyton Manning say "Omaha" during the game?

Over on 27 1/2 -150 - $1.00 to win $0.67

I actually think 271/2 is a bit low.  If Peyton is going to donate to charity again for each time he says "Omaha," he'll definitely run up this tally.

8.  How many times will "Beast Mode" be said during the game?

Over on 2 +110 - $1.00 to win $1.10

Marshawn will be force-fed the ball all game.  He runs hard and will definitely get loose for a couple solid runs.  Joe Buck won't be able to contain himself.

9.  If Renee Fleming wears gloves when she starts singing the US National Anthem, what color will they be?

White +275 - $1.00 to win $2.75

I was originally going to pick black; neutral color that matches with any color dress or accessory.  But the odds were terrible and I thought I could potentially get out to a good start here with the white odds.

10.  Will Knowshon Moreno cry during the singing of the National Anthem?

Yes +135 - $1.00 to win $1.35

If this guy cries during the National Anthem before a regular season Denver v. Tennessee game....

11.  How long will it take Renee Fleming to sing the official US National Anthem?

Over on 2 minutes and 25 seconds +150 - $2.00 to win $3.00

I love this bet!!!  Make it every year and always, ALWAYS, take the over.  This is center stage for any professional singer and with the world watching them.  Plus, Ms. Fleming is an opera singer who may or may not have an orchestra or symphony accompanying her.  This Anthem may last 7 minutes and 15 seconds.

12.  Player to record the 1st Denver Reception in the game?

Julius Thomas, TE 5/1 - $1.00 to win $5.00

Peyton loves his TE's and Thomas was huge for him this season, my yours truly's fantasy team.  He'll want to get him involved early in the game.

13.  Player to record the 1st Seattle Reception in the game?

Zach Miller, TE 6/1 - $1.00 to win $6.00

Same logic for Manning goes for Wilson.

14.  Player to score the first Denver TD in the game?

Knowshon Moreno, RB 5/1 - $1.00 to win $5.00

I'm basing this on attempts.  Denver/Manning hand the ball off a ton when down deep in the Red Zone.  I think Moreno has a good shot of getting into the endzone.

15.  Coin Toss?

Tails -105 - $2.00 to win $1.90

Odds are the same for Heads and Tails, so I go by the rule of "tails never fails."

16.  Longest successful FG in the game?  

Over on 44 1/2 -115 - $1.00 to win $0.87

Denver's Matt Prater and Seattle's Steve Hauchska are money from beyond 45 yards.  One of them will hit one.

17.  Will there be an onside kick attempt in the game?

Yes +225 - $1.00 to win $2.25

I just like the odds on this bet and I think there is a decent chance an onside kick situation could happen.

18.  Distance of the first punt in the game?

Over on 41 1/2 yards - $1.00 to win $0.87

I'm guessing that the first possession for either team will result in a three and out, leaving plenty of field for a long punt attempt.

19.  Will the Halftime show break the record for most watched ever (record Madonna 114 million viewers)

Yes +200 - $1.00 to win $2.00

Fox brought out the heavy-hitters in Bruno Mars and the Red Hot Chilli Peppers.  They got a pretty good shot at breaking the record.

20.  What will happen with the Dow Jones the day after the Super Bowl?

Market up -150, $1.00 to win $0.67

With all of the new commercials and advertising during the Super Bowl, everyone will be trade happy.

21.  Which region will have the higher local TV rating?

Seattle +110, $1.00 to win $1.10

If Seattle and the 12th Man want to prove that they are truly the best fans in the NFL......

22.  Who will be seen first on TV after kickoff?

Pam Oliver, Even, $1.00 to win $1.00

My choices were Pam Oliver or Erin Andrews.  While we all love ourselves some Erin Andrews, Oliver is Fox's lead sideline reporter and will most likely be on Denver's sideline.  They will always be going to her first for sideline reports.


Mr. Armchair Speaking!!!

Mr. Armchair’s 2014 Super Bowl Preview –

Christmas comes in early February for most football fans; the Super Bowl is finally here.  While most of us are disappointed that our favorite team isn’t playing on Sunday, we will still gather around the television with excitement and anticipation as opening kickoff is promptly scheduled for Sunday, February 2^nd, 2014, at 6:25 p.m. EST.

This year’s Super Bowl features both #1 seeds from their respective conference, the Denver Broncos representing the AFC, and the Seattle Seahawks representing the NFC.  It’s a classic matchup of offense v. defense.  On one side, you have one of the greatest QB’s to ever play the game in Peyton Manning running what is probably the most efficient and high-powered offense to ever take the field.  And on the other side you have a dominating defense that ranks #1 or near the top of almost ever defensive category this season.  For those making predictions on who will win this game, it basically comes down to your philosophy on the game of football and what you value most.  If you are an offensive-minded guy, Denver is your pick.  If you fall under the old adage of “defense wins championships,” then you are going with Seattle.  But there is no denying that these two teams are about as evenly matched as you can get. 

Let’s take a quick look at some of those matchups.

1.      Peyton Manning v. Richard Sherman – First, this won’t be much of a matchup, but I’m forced to talk about it.  If Manning is smart, and we all know he is, he won’t be throwing much toward Sherman’s way.  If he does throw his way, it will be short come-back routes or quick hitches, routes that are nearly impossible for CBs to cover.  But all these media pundits making a big deal about whether or not Manning will test Sherman and throw his way is all fodder in order to drive up mouse clicks on their articles.  Manning wants to win, and win badly; and that means not throwing to Sherman’s side of the field.  And then the second guessing will come in that Manning should have thrown at Sherman because he has something to prove to him for the “throws ducks” comment.  Please, Manning is the last player on that field who should feel he has to prove something to Sherman.

2.      Wes Welker v. Seahawks slot DB – With Sherman probably facing off against Demaryius Thomas or whoever lines up on that side of the field, the matchup to exploit for the Broncos will be whoever is covering Welker out of the slot, which will most likely be Seahawks CB Jeremy Lane.  Lane is a good special teamer but an average to below-average CB.  I expect Welker to run routes all game around Lane, whether it’s crossing routes over the middle to get loose or seam routes down the field to get open.  Welker should have a big game on Sunday, provided that he catches the ball (I know, low blow).

3.      Pot Roast v. Interior of the Seahawks O-line – Pot Roast, otherwise known as DT Terrance Knighton (man that has to be the coolest nickname in the NFL), singled-handedly shut down the New England Patriots running attack, clogging up those A and B gaps in the interior and getting good push up the middle.  I know Marshawn Lynch is a completely different RB than LeGarrette Blount, Shane Vereen, or Stevan Ridley, but running lanes are running lanes and if they aren’t open, Lynch will have nowhere to go.  C Max Unger and OG’s James Carpenter and J.R. Sweezy will have their hands full with Pot Roast (delete mental image) eating them up all game long. 

4.      Russell Wilson v. the Broncos DB’s – Wilson hasn’t thrown for more than 220 passing yards since the first weekend of December, 2013.  And in these last six games Wilson has only thrown for one TD in each of those games.  If the Seahawks are going to win this game, they will need Wilson to be more involved.  He needs to be able to move the ball through the passing game.  He’ll have a relatively healthy Percy Harvin at his disposal, but if I’m Wilson, I start utilizing my TE’s early and often in this game.  Getting them involved in the passing game early will not only get Wilson into a rhythm, it will draw the Broncos’ safeties up in coverage and start to open things up for the WR’s down the field.  TE’s Zach Miller and Luke Wilson should be Wilson’s best friends on Sunday.

5.      LDE’s Michael Bennett and Cliff Avril v. LT Chris Clark – The Seahawks’ defense rely heavily on their D-line getting tremendous pressure on the QB; and they are very good at it, generating 44 sacks as a defense this season.  Two of the best pass-rushers this defense has are Bennett and Avril, together combining for 16.5 sacks this season (Bennett 8.5, Avril 8.0).  Clark has been assigned the duty of protecting Manning’s blindside, probably the most important job in the NFL.  After taking over for LT Ryan Clady who suffered a season-ending injury, Clark has done a tremendous job holding down the left side of the O-line and protecting Manning.  But what also makes his job easier is that Manning has the best mental clock in his head and feel for pressure in the pocket.  His quick release, along with his timing and feel, makes Manning one of the toughest QB’s to sack in the NFL.  The Seahawks will have to get creative in their coverages and blitzes in order to throw Manning’s timing off and hope by doing so will generate some sacks.      

Final Prediction:  Denver 34 – Seattle 27

Super Bowl MVP:  Peyton Manning

Reasoning:  All of the metrics say that the Seahawks are going to win this game, but the money and public are going with the Broncos.  Usually in these cases, the public is generally wrong, but I’m not going to be the one who bets against Peyton Manning in the Super Bowl.  Yeah I know he already lost one, but there are just some players in sports who you never bet against, and Manning is one of those.  Given that he has had two weeks to study and work on a game plan to beat this dominating Seahawks defense, I like my chances in picking the Broncos.  I also think that the Broncos defense is getting a little unsold here in this matchup and they will be able to contain Lynch on the ground and will make Wilson try to beat them.  I just don’t see that happening.  Manning will cement his legacy with his second Super Bowl victory. 

 

Mr. Armchair Speaking!!!                 

Richard Sherman, I'm not mad bro. Just disappointed.

So I've decided to make my triumphant return to the Mr. Armchair blog this 2014.  I took some time off to re-energize the batteries and to figure out how I wanted to approach the Armchair.  I will continue to reverse my baseball content strictly for Baseball Hot Corner (www.baseballhotcorner.com) and I'm very excited to be a part of that community and the future that it's heading in.  So the Armchair will be for all other sports takes and opinions:  football, basketball, college sports, and anything else that interests me.  Think of this much like what Keith Law does for ESPN, writing baseball articles for them but still having his personal website for his music and movie reviews, and of course his Top Chef recaps.

So I wanted to start this year and the first post with my take on the events that occurred after a great NFC Championship game, namely with one, Richard Sherman.  First, I will acknowledge that Sherman is an elite talent and probably the best CB in the NFL.  I will also acknowledge that I am a die-hard 49ers fan, and can be times a little homerish when it comes to defend my team and its players.  I also will not call, nor do I consider Richard Sherman a thug or punk, as some are describing him.  Classless, we will get to that.  So I wanted to preface that right from the beginning.

As a 49er fan and human being, I did not appreciate what Richard Sherman did during his postgame interview with Fox's Erin Andrews, calling out Michael Crabtree and saying that he is a "sorry, mediocre WR."  However, I take more offense with Sherman making a choke sign toward Colin Kaepernick, which drew a 15-yard penalty for unsportsmanlike conduct.  I also take umbrage with Sherman going up to Crabtree after the great play he made, slapping him on the butt, and trying to shake his hand.  I think Crabtree had every right to put his hand in Sherman's face and push him away.  There is a time and place for that, and at that time, it was not.  But this isn't a which side are you on argument, and I'm not here to defend Crabtree.  This is strictly about Sherman's actions.

So let's dissect this by each event.  First the postgame interview with Ms. Andrews.  I think Sherman showed zero class in his postgame interview.  I get that he is an emotional player and him and Crabtree have "beef" toward each other, but what his actions showed was that he is incapable of taking the highroad.  There are better, classier wise of proving your point without going on a roid rage.  But what I also don't like about his antics is that he chose to take his great play and the great play of his team and turn it into a "look at me" moment, which in turns deflects the attention on what was otherwise a great game and a great play.  People aren't talking about the great play that he, Sherman, made to cause the INT, and people aren't talking about the great play LB Malcolm Smith made to hustle down the field to make the INT.  Instead, we are talking about Richard Sherman.  That was his agenda.  I get that's his brand, but if he wants his brand to be that of a glorified WWE character, that is something that I can't get behind.

The choke sign toward Kaepernick made by Sherman was completely uncalled for.  Kaepernick, to my knowledge, has never said anything directed toward Sherman that would constitute trash-talking.  For Sherman to deliberately make that gesture to Kaep was bush league.  Act like you've been there, my man.  And the same goes toward going up to Crabtree after the play and slapping him on the butt and trying to shake his hand.  We all know that he wasn't doing that in good faith, he was doing it to show up Crabtree.  If he really meant to go up to Crabtree and congratulate him on a good game, then do it after the game when all the rest of the players meet at midfield to shake hands.

I know he has since come out and written an article for Peter King's Monday Morning Quarterback explaining his actions, but he has also taken to twitter to apologize for his antics, which makes me think that at least he recognizes what he did was wrong.  He's an intelligent guy, Stanford educated, so I was confident that it would eventually sink in to him that he owed everyone an apology.  But he says in his article that he doesn't want to be portrayed as a villain because he's not a villainous person, and I'm here to tell you that you can't have it both wise, Richard Sherman.  You can't tell people to think of you as a good person and then pull the type of antics you did.  If you want to change the narrative, than you have to change your persona.

So Richard Sherman, I'm not mad bro.  Just disappointed.    


Mr. Armchair Speaking!!!

Mr. Armchair’s 2013 NFL Preview –

So I’m going to keep this intro short, as I know you all are eagerly anticipating the 2013 NFL Preview.  I worked to get this out a little earlier than normal, as I’m about to take a week hiatus from the sports world (well, as much as I can – still might find time to take in a game or two of baseball and catch NFL Opening Night) as I will be in beautiful, scenic Maui, Hawaii.  By the way, if you are into college football, my preview can be found here College Football Preview.  If you are into baseball, I baseball content can be found on www.baseballhotcorner.com, under Marc Keller.

In looking at the NFL as a whole this season, I found that one thing was very clear: the NFC is loaded with really, really good teams.  Obviously the cream will rise to the top, as teams like the Giants, Falcons, Seahawks, Saints, Packers, and 49ers will still be really good.  But they’ll have to work to get there, as I think even some of the middle-tier teams like the Panthers, Vikings, Redskins, Bears, Bucs, and Rams will be really competitive and make it tough on the top tier teams. 

The AFC on the other hand, there is a clear divide amongst the top and the bottom teams.  The teams that are good, like the Texans, Patriots, Broncos, Bengals, are good.  The teams that are bad, like the Jets, Jaguars, Chargers, Titans, Bills, and Raiders, are really, really bad.  I think the top half of the 2014 NFL Draft will be clearly dominated by AFC teams.   

So with that, I’ll keep the opening paragraph short since this is a lengthy post and I’ll get you to Mr. Armchair’s 2013 NFL Preview. 

NFC East –

New York Giants – 10-6 (Playoff – Division Winner)

Analysis:  It’s not always the prettiest, but Eli Manning wins you ball games; and I can’t see the Giants not making the playoffs two years in a row.  I like the way their offense sets up now with RB David Wilson finally getting the bulk of the carries in the background.  He is a very dynamic runner who if he can get to the edge, he can hit another gear and take off on you.  Their defense will need to improve from last year’s performance in order for the Giants to make the playoffs.  I think they will.   

Washington Redskins – 9-7

Analysis:  I hate picking teams where I’m relying too much on their key players being healthy.  I like Robert Griffin III as a player and think he’ll remain healthy for the majority of the season, but if he has to miss even a couple games because of injuries, that could really throw a wrench into their playoff picture, especially in a tough NFC East division and an even tougher non-divisional schedule.  Their non-divisional schedule includes games against the Packers, Lions, Bears, Broncos, Vikings, 49ers, Chiefs, and Falcons.        

Dallas Cowboys – 8-8

Analysis:  This is a generous 8-8 record I have here for the Cowboys.  It wouldn’t surprise me one bit if they collapsed and went 6-10 or 5-11 this season.  Their defense will be good and Dez Bryant is a star in the making at WR, but for some reason they keep putting their faith in the arm of QB Tony Romo.  Why, I don’t know.  The guy can’t win big football games.  And furthermore, their O-line is terrible.  They can surround Romo with all the weapons he wants, but if he can’t stay upright, what’s the use. 

Philadelphia Eagles – 6-10

Analysis:  After a horrendous 4-12 record last season, the Eagles brought in a new shine toy in the form of a new offense.  New Head Coach Chip Kelly comes over from Oregon and he’s bringing with him his high-speed offense.  All things considered (bad record last season, new head coach, WR Jeremy Maclin got for the season, question marks at QB), a 6-10 record would be a welcomed sight for Philly fans.  Of course, they would admit it, and I am sure anything less than a playoff appearance is a disappointing season, with calling for Kelly to be fired.           

 

NFC North –

Green Bay Packers – 12-4 (Playoff – Division Winner)

Analysis:  The Packers are still one of the most prolific offenses in the NFL and Aaron Rodgers is arguably the best QB in all of football.  Their division may have gotten a little tougher in terms of competition, but they should still be able to rule over them.  The challenge for the Packers will be how they overcome the injuries they sustained during this preseason.  They lose LT Bryan Bulaga, Rodgers’ blind slide protector, for the year, and WR Jordy Nelson is questionable to start the season.  Still, the Packers are too talented not to run away with this division.

         

Chicago Bears – 8-8

Analysis:  All reports out of Bears camp is new Head Coach Marc Trestman’s the real deal.  The offensive guru was hired out of the Canadian Football League to take over for old Head Coach Lovie Smith.  Under Smith, the defense was always stellar, but the offense unimaginative.  The hope is that Trestman can come in and bring some creativity to an offense that features such weapons as QB Jay Cutler, WR Brandon Marshall, and RB Matt Forte, yet still keep the defense intact.  Problem is how do you do that when it lost its heart and soul, ILB Brian Urlacher?   

Detroit Lions – 7-9

Analysis:  This is a make or break year for Head Coach Jim Schwartz.  After finishing last season 4-12, he has to produce a good season in order for him to keep his job.  The players will fight hard for him, but I think in the end, a 7-9 record just won’t save him.  The offense will be much improved with the addition of RB Reggie Bush, although it wasn’t really that bad to begin with.  Everyone criticized QB Matthew Stafford’s low TD numbers from last season (20), but 8 times WR Calvin Johnson was tackled inside the 5-yard line, and 5 times inside the 1.         

Minnesota Vikings – 7-9

Analysis:  The Vikings shocked the football world, finishing last season with a 10-6 record and making the playoffs, all on the knee of RB Adrian Peterson.  Peterson is a true freak of nature, coming back less than a year removed from having ACL knee surgery, lead the NFL in rushing yards, and win the NFL MVP Award.  He’ll likely regress a bit this season, which puts the responsibility to make up that ground in the hands of QB Christian Ponder.  Again, QB Christian Ponder.  So with that regression, I think we’ll see a regression in wins this season.           

NFC South –

New Orleans Saints – 12-4 (Playoff – Division Winner)

Analysis:  Man what a difference a head coach makes.  Head Coach Sean Payton is back from servicing his yearlong suspension due to Bountygate, and he will pick up right where he left off.  The offense will be stellar again, with QB Drew Brees feeling very comfortable and right at home.  Him and Payton can speak to each other in their little own language, using their euphoniums and slang.  It’s quite cute actually.  The defense will surely be a mess, but all new Defensive Coordinator Rex Ryan will ask them to do is get one stop on defense.               

Atlanta Falcons – 11-5 (Playoff – Wild Card)

Analysis:  The band is back together again, and ready to make another run at the Super Bowl.  They were even smart enough to add a lead guitarist to the group in the form of RB Steven Jackson.  Jackson is a huge upgrade over last season’s RB Michael Turner.  Jackson is much quicker and is a better pass-catcher out of the backfield, an element of offense the Falcons weren’t able to utilize with Turner.  And for bonus, they were able to talk the old drummer, TE Tony Gonzalez, to come back for one more tour.  Ok, that’s it for the band references.       

Carolina Panthers – 9-7

Analysis:  I really like the Panthers.  I really want to pick them to make the playoffs, and if they were in any division in the AFC, I would have them in no questions asked.  Their defense is very good, led by NFC Defensive ROY ILB Luke Kuechly and the addition of DT Star Lotulelei, who many thought would be the #1 in this past NLF Draft until a heart condition scared off teams.  But I look at their offense, and while I think QB Cam Newton is special, he'll still unproven, and the weapons around him, as well as his Head Coach Ron Rivera, are inferior.      

Tampa Bay Buccaneers – 7-9

Analysis:  The Bucs beefed up their defense with the additions of CB Darrell Revis and FS Dashon Goldson.  But this team will only go as far as their QB, Josh Freeman, will take them.  And unfortunately, I don't think it's as far as Bucs fans will hope.  He has no shortage of weapons around him however to succeed, as they find their RB for the next 10 seasons in Doug Martin.  Plus, having to play the Saints twice, Falcons twice, Panthers twice, 49ers, Seahawks, and Patriots doesn't exactly make for an easy road to the playoffs.              

NFC West –

San Francisco 49ers – 13-3 (Playoff – Division Winner)

Analysis:  WARNING!!!  WARNING!!! HOMER ANALYSIS COMING!!! HOMER ANALYSIS COMING!!!  You are going to think I'm crazy, but I actually feel like I'm short-changing the 49ers here by picking them to ONLY have a record of 13-3.  This team is going to be awesome!  I really had to search hard for potential losses on their schedule in conjunction with the caliber of team I think the 49ers are.  QB Colin Kaepernick will light up the NFL now that he is finally coming into the season as the starter and getting starters reps.  CANT......WAIT!       

Seattle Seahawks – 12-4 (Playoff – Wild Card)

Analysis:  Not going to lie to you, I hate Seattle.  This is a residual feeling I have from two incidents: one being last December when I went up to Seattle for the Seahawks / 49ers games and their stupid, annoying fans thinking they're something, and two being Chris Hansen, Steve Ballmer, the Norstrom Family, and the city of Seattle trying to steal my Sacramento Kings away from my city.  Thankfully, the city of Seattle lost in their bid of thievery for the Kings, and I hope the Seahawks find themselves in the same fate.  Rant over; team is good; that is all.      

St. Louis Rams – 8-8

Analysis:  Is this finally going to be the year that QB Sam Bradford starts living up to the hype and #1 pick status?  I actually think it is; and I actually think the Rams will be good, pretty, pretty good.  I like what they have on offense at WR with rookie Tavon Austin and second year players Chris Givens and Brian Quick.  And like any Head Coach Jeff Fisher team, you know the defense will be good as well.  Remember, the Rams still have all those draft picks they're getting from the Redskins in the RG3 trade, so they are going to be here to stay.     

Arizona Cardinals – 4-12

Analysis:  A lot of Cardinals fans want to blame the stink of last season solely on the play of the QB, but I think it goes beyond that, and nothing was solved this offseason.  Their O-line is still dreadful, the RB position is still unsettled, and I still have questions about the QB situation.  Rookie OG Jonathan Cooper is a start to fixing the O-line, but he can't play the other 4 positions all at once, RB Rashard Mendenhall coming over from the Steelers is on his last leg, and QB Carson Palmer is well...Carson Palmer.           

AFC East –

New England – 10-6 (Playoff – Division Winner)

Analysis:  Ok, I know QB Tom Brady is Tom Brady and Head Coach Bill Bellichick is Bill Bellichick, but I think the Patriots will have somewhat of a down season.  Yeah they’ll go 10-6 and make the playoffs, but it’s because they play in a weak division where you get to play the Dolphins, Bills, and Jets each twice.  Throw in winnable games against the Bucs, Steelers, Panthers, Browns, and Ravens, and I think you can find 10 wins in their schedule because, Brady is still Brady and Bellichick is still Bellichick.  But let’s be honest, I’m just rooting for Tebow.         

Buffalo Bills – 5-11

Analysis:  I’ve learned my lesson last season when I picked the Bills to finish with a winning record and make the playoffs.  Not making that same mistake this time.  For as much as I like RB C.J Spiller, they are way too young to make a run at it this year.  I like the potential they have though in LT Cordy Glenn, WR T.J. Graham, DT Marcell Dareus, CB Stephon Gilmore, and even QB E.J. Manuel.  I have a feel that in about 2-3 years, we’ll be having the same conversation we were last season about the Bill being a potential playoff team.      

Miami Dolphins – 5-11

Analysis:  This is a “pick-to-click” team for people this year, but not for me.  I think if everything goes right for them, they can put together a good season.  I’m just not a believer in QB Ryan Tannehill yet.  I think he needs another season under center before I can buy into him being a playoff caliber QB in the NFL.  But at least you can’t fault the Dolphins for trying.  They went out this offseason and spent big money on free agent WR Mike Wallace in order to move along the maturation progress of Tannehill.  Problem is, I don’t think Wallace helps all that much.         

New York Jets – 3-13

Analysis:  The Jets are a complete mess, sideshow, freak show, circus, whatever adjective you want to use to describe the type of team they are going to be this season.  And most of their drama is going to stem from two places: Head Coach Rex Ryan, and QB Mark Sanchez.  I think Ryan is fired by week 11 of the NFL season and rookie QB Geno Smith will displace Sanchez by week 5 of the season.  And there is a 3-1 odds bet that by week 3 of the season, we’ll see another repeat of the “butt fumble”.       

AFC North –

Cincinnati Bengals – 11-5 (Playoff – Division Winner)

Analysis:  Say what you may, but I’ve been watching HBO’s Hard Knock this season, and I’ve become a believer in the Bengals.  There is a whole lot to like about them.  They were already a playoff team last season, so it’s not like I’m making a bold call here.  But my bold call is that I think they take that next step and win a playoff game or two.  I think the combo of QB Andy Dalton and WR A.J. Green will be that much better, I like the addition of rookie RB Giovani Bernard into the backfield mix, and rookie TE Tyler Eifert is another goal-line option.

Pittsburgh Steelers – 9-7

Analysis:  As much as I agree that there is probably no other coach in the NFL that gets more out of his players than Steelers Head Coach Mike Tomlin, I don’t think this is the year he gets THAT much out of them.  I worry about how effect QB Ben Rothlishberger will be without WR Mike Wallace (left via free agency), and rookie RB Le’Von Bell (injury).  Their only saving grace could be that their schedule is relatively soft, with games against the Titans, Bears, Vikings, Jets, Raiders, Bills, Lions, Dolphins, and division rivals, Browns and Ravens.       

Cleveland Browns – 7-9

Analysis:  If the Panthers are my NFC team I like, the Browns are my AFC team.  I think the Browns can come up and bite teams if they aren’t playing much attention to them.  I know a lot is riding on the arm of QB Brandon Weeden, and it’s a lot to ask of him to carry the Browns to at least 7 wins and possibly beyond.  But there is a lot to like about the Browns.  Their defense is good, the O-line is better than average, led by a couple of Cal Bears Alex Mack and Mitchell Schwarts, and they can really open up some holes for RB Trent Richardson.       

Baltimore Ravens – 6-10

Analysis:  So everyone been pooping on QB Joe Flacco for years, saying he’s overrated and a hack QB, and then all of a sudden he has a great three-game stretch, lucks into a Super Bowl victory (yeah, I just said that), and now is the greatest, and highest paid, QB in the NFL?  Please!  Additionally, they lost their heart-and-soul in ILB Ray Lewis, and to a lesser extent, FS Ed Reed.  They also traded away WR Anquan Boldin (Flacco’s security blanket), lost TE Dennis Pitta to a season-ending injury, and let other pieces of their defense leave via free agency.    

AFC South –

Indianapolis Colts – 11-5 (Playoff – Division Winner)

Analysis:  For being such a Cal Football homer, I really like what QB Andrew Luck brings to the table.  I still believe that he will be the greatest college QB of my generation, like John Elway was to the generation before me.  But it’s not just Luck for my reasoning of having the Colts back in the playoffs and as division winners over the Texans.  I think the O-line is much better this season with the addition of RT Gosder Cherilus, and the defense is much improved with the additions of DL Ricky Jean Francois, LB Erik Walden, DB’s Greg Toler and LaRon Landry.        

Houston Texans – 10-6 (Playoff – Wild Card)

Analysis:  I know I’m in the minority by not having the Texans with at least 11 wins and winning the division.  But their schedule is relatively tough, having to play the 49ers, Seahawks, Rams, Chiefs, Broncos, Patriots, Ravens, plus the Colts twice.  And frankly, I don’t think QB Matt Schaub will ever take them where they want to god; and with every year they wait for him, that’s other year off the NFL life span of WR Andre Johnson and RB Arian Foster.  If Schaub and Head Coach Gary Kubiak can’t get it done, I expect changes to be made next offseaon.

Tennessee Titans – 5-11

Analysis:  I’m not sure, but is the ABP still out for a RB by the name of Chris Johnson, also known as or may go by the alias of CJ2K?  I’m just checking.  Can someone report back to me if they find him?  Ok, I kid.  But in today’s NFL, 1200 yards and 6 TD’s is hardly a great season, especially with as much hype and smack talk that follows Johnson.  The O-line will be improved somewhat with rookie OG Chance Warmack, so that may boost Johnson’s stat line.  But I don’t think Johnson will ever live down his CJ2K comment.            

Jacksonville Jaguars – 3-13

Analysis:  You can generally tie a team’s success around the play of their QB, and playing QB this year for the Jaguars will either be Blaine Gabbert or Chad Henne.  I think that says it all.  New Head Coach Gus Bradley really has a challenge on his hands trying to turn this team around.  Not only are the Jaguars in full rebuild mode, but also their future in Jacksonville is also up in the air as it’s becoming more and more likely we will see an NFL team back in Los Angeles in the near future.  At least they’ll have the NFL Red Zone Channel playing on their big screen scoreboard. 

AFC West –

Denver Broncos – 13-3 (Playoff – Division Winner)

Analysis:  It seems like the rich get richer when it comes to the Broncos.  We all know about the big free agent addition of WR Wes Welker from the Patriots, but they also needed other key pieces such as CB Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie and also drafting two potential starters in DT Sylvester Williams and RB Montee Ball.  Even despite the loss of OLB Von Miller for the first 6 games, all 6 are very winnable without him.  They play the Ravens, Giants, Raiders, Eagles, Cowboys, and Jaguars.  They can very easily go 6-0 or 5-1 during that stretch.         

Kansas City Chiefs – 10-6 (Playoff – Wild Card)

Analysis:  How can a team with the worst record in the NFL last season turn it around and make the playoffs so quickly?  Well, get yourself the #1 draft pick, which they did and used it wisely on OT Eric Fisher.  Get yourself a proven, winning head coach, which they did in Andy Reid.  And go out and get yourself a proven, winning QB, which they did in Alex Smith.  Better blocking will lead to more time to pass and more holes to run through, couple that with better play-calling, and it’s a recipe for scoring more points, which leads to more wins.  It’s that simple.

San Diego Chargers – 3-13

Analysis:  I think this season spells the end of the QB Phillip Rivers era in San Diego.  For the last couple of seasons now we have witness an overall decline in the play of the Chargers, starting with Rivers, moving on down to RB Ryan Matthews, no WR to throw the ball too, Antonio Gates is about a year or two away from calling it quits, and the defense is poorest at best.  After this season, the Chargers will be is full-blown rebuild mode and if the draft pick is high enough, which it should be, they can start by maybe drafting a franchise QB in next year’s draft. 

Oakland Raiders – 2-14

Analysis:  I can’t even begin to describe to you how bad the Raiders are going to be this season.  I have the Raiders going 2-14, and I think I’m being generous with this prediction.  If they don’t win their week 2 game against the Jaguars, their week 14 matchup against the Jets in NY, or one of the two games against the Chargers, they could quiet possibly challenge the Lions record of finishing a season 0-16.  There is a saying, “Rome wasn’t built in a day.”  I think right now Raiders fans will settle for Modesto, CA (no offense to those from Modesto, CA).    

Awards

MVP – Peyton Manning, QB Denver Broncos

Offensive Player of the Year – Colin Kaepernick, QB San Francisco 49ers

Defensive Player of the Year – Jerod Mayo, LB New England Patriots

Offensive Rookie of the Year – Eddie Lacy, RB Green Bay Packers

Defensive Rookie of the Year – Star Lotulelei, DT Carolina Panthers

Head Coach of the Year – Andy Reid, Kansas City Chiefs

Playoff Teams

NFC – Giants, Packers, Saints, Falcons (wild card), 49ers, Seahawks (wild card)

AFC – Patriots, Bengals, Colts, Texans (wild card), Broncos, Chiefs (wild card)

Championship Games

NFC – 49ers over Falcons

AFC – Broncos over Bengals

Super Bowl

49ers over Broncos

Mr. Armchair’s 20123 College Football Preview –

The dog days of summer are just about over, and all that is right in the world will soon start to take shape.  The 2013 College Football season will soon be upon us. 

Don’t get me wrong, I love, love baseball and love writing about it.  If you have missed me writing about baseball, you can find it here at www.baseballhotcorner.com.  I have reserved my baseball content strictly for this Web Site, so please go check it out.  There are other great writers on the Site as well who produce great content on the game of baseball.  But with the Giants in the midst of a disappointing 2013 season, the months of June, July, and August get a little long.  I’m ready for some football. 

Before I get to my Top 15 rankings, I want to give a quick preview of my University of California Golden Bears football team.  I’ll be entering my 8^th season as a Cal football season ticket holder, and not since the junior season of stud WR DeSean Jackson have I been more excited for a Cal football season than I am for this one.  This season begins a new era for Cal Football, as new head coach Sonny Dykes ushers in his high octane, spread offense – one that led the nation last season when he was the head coach at Louisiana Tech. 

While there are many question marks in terms of position battles, one battle that many had their eyes on was just declared over and a victor was announced.  That battle was at the QB position and coach Dykes just announced last week that true freshman Jared Goff will start at QB for the Bears, beating out redshirt freshman and highly-touted recruit, Zach Kline.  Goff beating out Kline comes as a huge surprise, as many felt that Kline had the inside track coming into the offseason and should have been named the starter just on reputation alone.  But Dykes opened up the competition and in the end, he’ll start his era of Cal football with a true freshman at the helm.     

Other names to look at for are junior RB Brendan Bigelow, who made a name for himself when he broke off two 70-plus yard runs on national television last season when the Bears were in Columbus, OH, and nearly beat THE Ohio State University.  Also, the trio of sophomore WR’s: Bryce Treggs, Chris Harper, and Darius Powe, will all see plenty of balls thrown their way in the new spread offense.  It will be extremely fun to watch.    

On defense, Cal will be young and inexperienced, but there is no lack of talent on this side of the ball.  Cal has recruited well the past couple of season, especially on the defensive side of the ball.  Guys like junior LB’s Nick Forbes, Brennan Scarlett, and Chris McCain should shine this season.  DB’s like sophomore Stefan McClure and junior Avery Sebastian should finally get a full season of starts under their belts and Sebastian especially could be the breakout player on defense.  And finally, I don’t think there is no other position where Cal is more talented and deep than on the DL.  They are loaded with highly recruited talents like sophomore Todd Barr, juniors Viliami “Tiny” Moala and Gabe King, and of course this unit is anchored down by senior DL and likely first-round pick in next year’s NFL Draft, DeAndre Coleman. 

In Sonny’s first season as head coach, I’m not expecting a lot of wins.  To be honest, if you were to offer me a 6-6 season with an appearance in the Kraft Fight Hunger Bowl, I would probably take it and not play out the season.  But I am excited that there is new, fresh blood being pumped into the Cal football system.  Hopefully with a new high-powered spread offense and a coach who is not afraid to play the best players, despite their year, the Cal football program can continue to grow and look forward to a Rose Bowl appearance in the not-so-distant future.       

Also really quickly, this will be the last season of the dreaded BCS Bowl System.  Debuting in 2014, there will be a 4-team playoff system that will, for once and for all, determine who will be the true National Champion.  While it’s not an 8-team playoff, which seems more logical, I’m not complaining because at least it’s a start.  At least we have movement in the right direction.  The system can be fixed and corrected along the way, but for now, at least we can see the light at the end of the tunnel when before we couldn’t even see the tunnel. 

So here it finally is, Mr. Armchair’s 2013 College Football Preview.

1.      Alabama – This is a formality.  I’m pretty sure we’ll continue to have Alabama ranked #1 for the next five seasons at the rate they are recruiting.  It is actually pretty impressive that they are able to dominate College Football in the fashion that they do.  They play in what is undoubtedly the hardest, toughest division in College Football and they recruit in arguably the hardest, toughest region of the United States, and yet they just keep on winning.  No other analysis needed at this point.    

2.      Oregon – As much as it pains me to have them here, I have to admit that they are really good.  They are probably the fastest team in the country, featuring a pair of Heisman Trophy candidates in junior RB De’Anthony Thomas and sophomore QB Marcus Mariota.  If they go undefeated in an underrated PAC-12 conference with new head coach Mark Helfrich, the computers will have no choice but to put Oregon in the #2-hole.  Bama v. Oregon would be a great National Championship game.   

3.      Ohio State – Now that they are finally Bowl eligibly, THE Ohio State University is ready to make their presence felt again after a few down years (well, technically they went undefeated last season, but hey, it’s not in the record books).  This will be Big Urb’s (head coach Urban Meyer) second season with the Buckeyes and his second season tutoring stud junior QB and Heisman Trophy favorite Braxton Miller.  A QB that talented with guidance from Big Urb is bound for big things.       

4.      South Carolina – One name:  Jadeveon Clowney.  Enough said.  This guy is a stud and from the DE position, can single-handedly be a game changer.  The consensus #1 pick in next year’s NFL Draft will not let this team fail.  Plus, their schedule is light, playing only three ranked teams.  They play #5 Georgia in Athens week 2, which is good because it’s early enough to where if they lose, they have time to make it up with games against #10 Florida and #8 Clemson.  The big question mark is senior QB Conner Shaw.         

5.      Stanford – I refuse to believe that a Stanford team will ever be as talented as the ones that then head coach Jim Harbaugh and QB Andrew Luck guided.  Their O-line may be the best in the nation, and with sophomore RB Barry Sanders (Yes, that Barry Sanders kid) taking on full snaps, he should rank up plenty of rushing yards.  Their schedule however gets really tough after the halfway point, with games against #21 UCLA, #25 Oregon State, #3 Oregon, #24 USC, rival Cal, and #14 ND, all in a consecutive weeks.   

6.      Georgia – They have a very good QB-RB combo in senior QB Aaron Murray and sophomore RB Todd Gurley.  Yes the start to their schedule is brutal, opening at #8 Clemson, then hosting #6 South Carolina the following week, and after a cupcake, hosting #12 LSU.  After that, the only other ranked team they play is #10 Florida, and that is at home.  I think they still carry with them the sting of almost beating Bama in the SEC Championship game last season.  

7.      Louisville – They easily play the softest schedule of all of the potential top 10 teams.  Playing in the newly formed American Athletic Conference, Louisville doesn’t have a single-ranked team on their schedule, with their only real challenge being a home game against Rutgers and an away game at Cincinnati to end the season.  This bodes well for junior QB and Heisman Trophy Candidate Teddy Bridgewater, as he will for sure fill up a stat sheet and make his case.    

8.      Texas A&M – It will be very interesting to see how the soap opera that is sophomore QB and Heisman Trophy winner Johnny Manziel will be fun to watch.  Things can go really bad for Texas A&M, or they can pick up where they left off last season and continue to improve and roll through teams.  I’ll take the middle ground and say that Manziel plays the full season despite the controversy, but Texas A&M still won’t crack the top 5.  The true test comes week 3, when they host #1 Alabama.   

9.      Florida St. – This team is still a year away from really being National Championship contenders.  They are loaded with talent after two really good recruiting classes, but they need this year to develop and gel together.  The schedule is light, with only two ranked teams on it, #8 Clemson and #10 Florida, both on the road.  The goal this season should be to develop their building blocks, freshman QB Jameis Winston and sophomore DE Mario Edwards.  Next year will be FSU’s year. 

10.  Clemson – I always rank Clemson lower than they will probably finish.  They always recruit really good athletes and they are super explosive on offense, with a very good QB-WR combo in senior QB Tajh Boyd and junior WR Sammy Watkins.  They have a challenge right out of the gate with a home game against #5 Georgia, but then it gets light, with their only challenging games remaining being #11 Florida State at home and their rivalry game against #6 South Carolina on the road to end the season.              

11.  LSU – It’s hard to believe that a Les Miles coached LSU team is out of the top 10 and not in the conversation for the National Championship, but I think it’s just one of those years for them.  There was a lot of promise last season in junior QB Zach Mettenberger, and he didn’t live up to expectations.  Now a senior, LSU needs him to step up and live up to the hype that followed him to LSU.  Also, late games against #1 Bama and #7 Texas A&M also doesn’t bode well for LSU. 

12.  Florida – I’m sorry Florida fans, but I’m just not a believer in you guys this year.  I have no faith in junior QB Jeff Driskel.  The schedule provides you with easy games to pad your record, but then games against #12 LSU in Baton Rouge, #5 Georgia at home, #6 South Carolina in Columbia, and #11 FSU at home, will put you guys in check.  I know you guys have a strong defense, but eventually in order to win games, you need to score points.  And again, Jeff Driskel is your QB.    

13.  Texas – Texas can’t stay down for this long, can they?  With head coach Mack Brown somewhat on the hot seat in Austin, Texas will need to have a good season in order for him to keep his job.  The big question will be the QB play, and that responsibility will fall on junior QB David Ash.  He’ll have weapons around him in sophomore RB Johnathan Gray and junior WR Jaxon Shipley.  Their true test will come in October, when they will play #16 Oklahoma and #20 TCU in consecutive weeks.   

14.   Oklahoma – I can’t bring myself to place an Oklahoma team that is coached by Bob Stoops outside the top 15.  Their schedule is brutal, playing #14 Norte Dame in South Bend, #20 TCU at home, and #15 Texas at home, all in consecutive weeks.  But I really like what they have at the QB position with junior Blake Bell.  He has the potential to be Tim Tebow light, having rushed for 16 TD’s last season.  If he can improve on his accuracy and passing ability, look out Big 12.      

15.  Norte Dame – I guess……..

National Championship Winner:  Alabama over Oregon

Heisman Winner:  AJ McCarron, QB  Alabama

Mr. Armchair Speaking!!!