Top 5 prospects I am excited to see........

Last year was truly a special year for baseball in terms of fans getting to see prospects developed before their eyes.  Baseball fans got to see a big glimpse into the future.  Mike Trout of the Los Angeles Angels and Bryce Harper of the Washington Nationals were two prospects that baseball fans couldn't wait to see in action.  Once they were finally called-up to the majors by their respective organizations, they did not disappoint.  The #1 pick in the 2010 MLB Draft, much of Bryce Harper's hype stemmed from his much chronicled path to Major League Baseball; leaving high school early to enroll in junior college, then after a year at junior college leaving for the draft.  Once with the Nationals, Harper did not disappoint, finishing his rookie season with a .270 AVG, 98 R's, 26 2B's, 22 HR's, 59 RBI's, 18 SB's, .817 OPS, and a NL Rookie of the Year award.  For as good a rookie season Harper had, he was one-upped by fellow AL Rookie of the Year Award winner, Mike Trout.  Trout built his hype up through awesome performances both at the plate and defensively through his minor league career.  MLB and Angels fans got a sneak peek at Trout in the 2011 season, but once he got called-up for good in 2012, he left many baseball goers wondering if we were seeing the second coming of Mickey Mantle.  Trout finished his official rookie season with a .326 AVG, 129 R's, 27 2B's, 30 HR's, 83 RBI's, 49 SB's, .963 OPS, an AL Rookie of the Year Award (as mentions above), and finishing second in the AL MVP voting (many statistical geeks and sabermateric believers believe Trout should have been the AL MVP over triple-crown winner, Miguel Cabrera).  Suffice to say, Harper and Trout definitely put a different prospective and expectation on how fans look at upcoming prospects.

While we will probably never see anything like last season again, nevertheless there are still some exciting prospects that baseball fans can get excited about.  Here are my top 5 prospects that I am excited to see this upcoming baseball season.  

1.  Jurickson Profar - SS / 2B, Texas Rangers.

Profar is viewed by many as the best prospect in MLB baseball.  He is this year's must-see top prospect.  His stats won't jump out at you, but it's the position he plays, SS, that inflates his stats and gets baseball loves excited about him.  In 126 games at the Double-A level, he had a .281 AVG, 76 R's, 26 2B's, 14 HR's, 62 RBI's, 16 SB's, and a .820 OBS.  Again, if he played OF, they are good numbers; but as a SS, while also showing plus defensive skills, he is a roster builder and franchise player.  His path to the majors is somewhat blocked by current Rangers' SS, Elvis Andrus, but I think Profar is too good of a player not to be on the field for the Rangers.  I think the Rangers will find a way to either trade Andrus, or move current 2B, Ian Kinsler, to a different position on the field or DH, so that Profar can get playing time at 2B.  He'll lose some of his value if moved to 2B, but either way, its still AB's for Profar; and in an ultra-competitive AL West Division - a division that the Rangers lost to the Oakland A's on the final day of the season last year - it doesn't matter where Profar plays on the field as long as he gets AB's.       

 

 

2.  Wil Myers - OF, Tampa Bay Rays

Once thought to be the savior of the Kansas City Royals' franchise, Myers was traded along with other top prospects this offseason to the Tampa Bay Rays for SP's James Shield and Wade Davis, in what can only be perceived as a "win now" trade for the Royals.  Myers was thought to be blocked by current Royals' RF'er, Jeff Francoer, which made Myers expendable to be traded.  Frankly, this armchair GM would have never moved a prospect like Myers, but that is why I'm not paid the big bucks.  For the Royal's front office sake, I hope they are right.  In 99 games at the Triple-A level, Myers posted a .304 AVG, 66 R's, 15 2B's, 24 HR's, 79 RBI's, and a .932 OBS.  Myers is also a plus defensive OF and has the defensive skills to play all three OF positions, though his natural position is RF, making his path to the big leagues somewhat blocked by current Rays RF'er, Ben Zobrist.  However, Zobrist can play 2B, which could open up RF for Myers, or the Rays could move Myers to LF and move current LF'er Matt Joyce to DH.  Much like the Rangers' situation with Profar, I feel Myers is just too good of a player not to find AB's for, and when teamed up with 3B Evan Longoria, they could make for a killer middle of the lineup.      

 

 

3.  Trevor Bauer - SP, Cleveland Indians

Like Wil Myers, Bauer was also a highly-touted prospect who was traded in the offseason.  Bauer was the main prize for the Cleveland Indians in a three-team deal involving Bauer's former team, the Arizona Diamondbacks, as well as the Cincinnati Reds.  It was reported that Bauer was a cancer while with the Diamondbacks, often feuding with the front office about workout habits, game prep, and also clashing with current Diamondbacks manager, Kirk Gibson; all while experiencing a cup-of-coffee in the pros last September.  While in the majors, he suffered a leg injury in his first start, an injury in which he tried to play through but showed in his pitching.  Despite all of Bauer's talent, the Diamondbacks decided to just move Bauer now while his value was still high and fill other organizational needs.  In 14 starts at Triple-A, Bauer posted a 5-1 record with a 2.85 ERA, 97 K's, 35 BB's, and a 1.329 WHIP.  Bauer should have no problem cracking the Indians' starting rotation coming out of Spring Training, hoping to beat out the likes of Brett Myers and a washed-up Dice-K Matsuzaka.       

 

 

4.  Gerrit Cole - SP, Pittsburgh Pirates 

The former #1 pick in the 2011 MLB Draft, it may be a little soon for us to expect to see Cole in the majors this season, but I think we will, even if its a late September call-up.  Nevertheless, that doesn't temper my excitement to see Cole in the majors, and I believe there is an outside chance we see Cole sooner than a September call-up.  The Pirates currently hold the streak for longest playoff drought in baseball, and with the Pirates showing signs of life and sniffing around playoff contention last season, the organization may get desperate and call-up Cole.  The opposite could also happen and the Pirates are so bad that they might just call-up Cole to give him some live action in the pros.  Cole pitched in all-three levels of the minors last season, making 26 starts and posting combined numbers of 9-7 record with a 2.80 ERA, 136 K's, 45 BB's, and a 1.197 WHIP.  Again, it may be too early for us to see Cole, but that will all depend on how good or bad the Pirates are this upcoming season.   

 

 

5.  Billy Hamilton - OF, Cincinnati Reds 

This is my wildcard pick.  I'm going to say it right now, Billy Hamilton has the potential to be the next Rickey Henderson (without the power), or at the very least, the next Tim Raines.  In today's baseball world, the art of the stolen base is a lost trade, and for those of us who watched baseball during the mid-to-late 80's and into the early 90's, we can appreciate how exciting it is to see a true base-stealer in baseball.  Billy Hamilton can be that guy.  Arguably the fastest man in all of baseball, Hamilton set the record for most SB's in minor league history with 159 SB's.  Now the challenge for him will be to actually get on-base, but last season in the minors, sharing time between High-A and Double-A, he sported a .410 OBP and a .311 AVG.  The Reds have a crowded OF right now with Ryan Ludwick, Shin-Soo Choo, and Jay Bruce, but neither of them are either a true CF'er nor a leadoff hitter.  This is where Hamilton may see an earlier-than-expected call-up to the majors, as he would fill both of those areas if they become needed.  I can't guarantee that Hamilton will see more than a September call-up this upcoming season, but when he is called-up in September, it will be a fun month of viewing.  

 

 

Mr. Armchair Speaking!!!

What MLB and the NFL Get Right that the NBA Doesn’t –

Going from being an amateur athlete to a professional can be an arduous process.  For a baseball player, you can get drafted out of high school, forgo college, and make your way up through MLB’s minor league system.  Or you can accept a college scholarship and wait until after your junior year to be draft eligible.  For a football player, the NFL mandates that any player eligible for the NFL Draft must be at least three-years removed from high school, no exceptions.  Lastly, for a basketball player, the NBA mandates that a player must be one-year removed from high school, no exceptions.  For MLB and the NFL, these mandates have been in place for years and have rarely been challenged.  But the NBA, the so-called “one-and-done” rule is a mandate that was just recently enacted, and has been challenged and argued on numerous occasions.    

The NBA’s Draft eligibility criteria is being called into question again after Kentucky freshman forward and potential #1 NBA draft pick, Nerlens Noel, suffered a season-ending knee injury when he torn his ACL in last week’s Kentucky v. Florida game.  There is much speculation that, after suffering this injury while in college, it could potentially hurt his draft stock / positioning, and thereby costing him millions of dollars; all because Noel had to go to college for one year before entering the NBA Draft.  So now the argument is being made:  if the NBA never instituted the “one-and-done” rule, Noel would have never been in college as he would have most likely entered and had been drafted into NBA the previous year, and therefore would now be financial secure if he had suffered this horrific injury in the NBA.    

Many people want to see the NBA’s “one-and-done” rule gone away with not only for financial reasons, but also because these high school basketball players are only going to college for one year because they have too, and then they immediately leave to enter the NBA Draft.  I respectfully disagree with eliminating the "one-and-done" rule.  If anything, I think the NBA needs to add another year or two onto it. 

Prior to the "one-and-done" rule, the NBA saw an influx of high school basketball players enter the NBA Draft when they were clearly not ready or skilled enough.  They were told false information regarding their basketball skills by inspiring sports agents trying to make a quick million off of these kids; agents who told them it’s a great idea to try to make the jump from high school basketball to the NBA, only to have these kids not get drafted and be left with no college scholarship and eligibility.  What does their future hold for them then?  They don’t get drafted into the NBA, they can’t go back and re-accept their scholarship they turned down to enter the NBA draft, and if they don’t have the GPA or test scores to get into college academically, where does that leave them?  Many use their athletic skills as a tool to get them on the path to college, which is fine and I agree with.  But the reality is that when the NBA didn’t have the “one-and-done” rule and high school players were draft eligible, a lot of them were coming from low-socioeconomic status, and when a sports agents gets in these kid’s ears, telling them how good they are and how many millions they will make in the NBA, it’s hard for these kids not to listen or say no.  And sometimes, you need to protect kids from themselves; and that is what I think the NBA is doing with the “one-and-done” rule.   

The most common comparison being made for the argument of doing away with the NBA’s “one-and-done” rule is that MLB allows players out of high school to be drafted, and it doesn't seem to be a problem for that sport.  Yes, high school baseball players are eligible and do get drafted out of high school, but they also spend many years in the minor league system before they ever see time in the professional ranks.  And what gets lost is the fact that if a high school player were to instead go to college to play baseball, they can’t become draft eligible until their junior year.  If the NBA can create a system or rule much like MLB has, making high school players eligible for the draft but if they choose to go to college they are required to stay for three years, I would support and be in favor of that system. 

Another common argument for allowing high schooler to enter the NBA Draft is one that I feel is trivial and jaded, and that is the argument of “right-to-work law” and the NBA impeding that right.  This is a bogus argument.  First, the NBA is not infringing on a high schoolers "right-to-work" rights.  The NBA through collective bargaining came to this age requirement agreement with the NBA's players union, so there is no rights or laws being impeded.  Secondly, this is how the real world works sometimes.  Sometimes, there are certain requirements that an individual has to meet before they can be employed at a job.  Whether it's obtaining a certain degree, or certification, or even age, that individual must meet those criteria.  Just because a high schooler may be physically ready for the NBA, doesn't mean he is qualified or ready to be in the NBA.  High schooers aren’t going straight into the medicine field or becoming doctors and scientist because they scored great on their SAT's or ACT's.  They go through many years of schooling to become skilled at their craft, and that is how I look at athletes going to college first before joining the pros.  There is a lot of development, both physical and maturing, that a kid refines while in college.   

Don't get me wrong, I feel terrible for Nerlens Noel and wouldn't wish this on him or his family, but you can't blame the NBA for what happened to him.  Like any business or association, it's their right to implement an age requirement to be allowed employment.  If you want to place the blame on anyone in this situation, blame the NCAA for not providing a stipend for their athletes who make the NCAA the multi-billion dollar industry it is.  I believe we can all agree that the current system of "one-and-done" is a complete mockery and that some change needs to occur.  For me, the solution is simple; either implement a rule much like MLB or extend the current NBA age requirement an additional one or two years, with the latter being the preferred choice.  I think these kids benefit more from staying in college longer, prolonging their education and physical development, and therefore making the NBA and NCAA games a better product.  The current systems in MLB and the NFL work, and the NBA's doesn't.  MLB and the NFL gets it right, the NBA doesn’t.   

Mr. Armchair Speaking –    

Mr. Armchair’s Super Bowl Wrap up – For One Day, They Were Better / Prop Bets Results.

 Let this be the first and only time I do this.  Congratulations to the Baltimore Ravens and their fans on winning the Super Bowl.  It was well-earned and deserved. 

Ok, now that that’s over, let’s get onto the game.  I thought overall it was a great game and one of the better Super Bowls in recent years.  It was high scoring, drama filled, and had exciting plays that kept the interest of the general football fan; and that’s ultimately the goal of the Super Bowl.  Even with the blackout and 35 minute delay; I thought it only added to the game and will be another element that makes this game memorable. 

For the Ravens, it was the perfect ending to their perfect postseason.  Joe Flacco played perfect football and well undoubtedly get paid this offseason as he is set to become a free agent.  Expect a top 5 QB salary contract coming his way, even if his regular season stats don't merit his upcoming contract.  And the franchise's best and most memorable player, Ray Lewis, gets to walk off into the sunset.  I respect Ray Lewis as a football player and enjoyed watching him throughout his career, but I couldn't help but resent him a little bit for the abundance of media coverage he garnered this Super Bowl.  

For the 49ers, it just wasn’t there day.  Going into the game, I thought they were the clear-cut favor.  They were the more talented, balanced, and complete team; and should have walked away with this Super Bowl championship.  I predicted a 31-17 49ers victory.  I got the 49ers score correct, as I knew their offense would score points, but their defense just didn't come to play.  Their secondary got beat on a lot of plays and the lack of depth and pass rusher on the D-Line was apparent.  Luckily for the 49ers, they have 14 picks in this upcoming draft, and I have no doubt they will look to improve in those two areas.  In the end, they just made too many mistakes; the defense missed tackles, the coverage broke down, the offense was stagnant in the first half, and they had costly penalties.    

There were three mistakes that ultimately cost the 49ers the Super Bowl that I want to focus on.  The first mistake came on the Ravens very first offensive possession.  The 49ers had stopped the Ravens on a 3^rd inside the Ravens 20 yard line that would have results in a FG attempt; however Ahmad Brooks jumped offside, negating the defensive stop and giving the Ravens the down over.  The very next play, Joe Flacco goes up top to Anquan Boldin in the endzone for a Ravens’ TD.  That right there is 4 points given to the Ravens, and the 49ers lost by 3.  The math is simple.

The second mistake was the LaMichael James fumble.  The 49ers were down 7-3 but had moved the ball down the field and were in Ravens' territory.  James takes the handoff on an option right and after fighting off tackles to gain positive yards, he fought too hard and fumbled the ball, with the Ravens recovering.  The Ravens would eventually march down the field to score their second TD of the game, a one-yard TD pass to Dennis Pitta, making the score 14-3.  This was a huge turning point early.  I believe that if James hadn’t fumbled the ball, the 49ers were deep enough in Ravens’ territory that they would have scored on either a TD or FG.  If they did score a TD, they would have taken the lead 10-7, and I think that would have completely changed the whole dynamics of the Super Bowl.  The 49ers playing with a lead are a much different team than when playing from behind.  If they had only gotten a FG, they would have still only been down 1 point, but no air wouldn't have been deflated from their balloon.   

The third mistake was obviously the poor kickoff coverage on the Jacoby Jones’ kickoff return for a TD at the start of the second half, making the score 28-6.  Coming out of halftime down 21-6 and having to kick the ball off to the Ravens, the last thing the 49ers could afford was for the Ravens to score on that drive.  I won’t mention here that the refs missed an obvious holding call on the Ravens that should have negated the TD and brought the ball back, as I’m saving the poor officiating for another paragraph, but the 49ers needed a stop on that first possession of the second half in the worst way, and to not only give up a TD, but have it come on the opening kickoff had to be somewhat deflating.  Yes I know the 49ers fought back and had a chance to win the game, but its simple math again; take away that return TD and the 49ers win.

Now it’s time for me to get a little salty and address a couple a things.  First the blackout, I actually didn’t mind the blackout.  As someone who was hosting a Super Bowl mini-gathering and was responsible for clean-up, a promise made to Mrs. Armchair, the 35 minute break actually helped me out.  I was able to get most of the cleaning done and food put away during that time without having to miss any plays.  Brilliant move to whoever flipped that switch.  I also want to discount this notion that the blackout helped the 49ers and that if the 49ers had won the Super Bowl the blackout would have been the cause for the Ravens lose.  Stop it, Ravens fans.  The blackout had nothing to do with the momentum of the game or would have had any effect on the outcome if the 49ers had won.  Both teams had to sit through the delay.  Both teams were getting restless.  Stop. 

Secondly, unlike most of the national media, I thought the officiating was below average to poor.  I understand that the refs wanted to let the players play and have their play determine the outcome, but it just got ridiculous.  The officiating crew only called 7 penalties the entire game.  You are kidding me??  You can call 7 penalties on an entire drive let alone an entire game.  I get that the refs didn’t want to overtake the game or be the story at the end, but there comes a point where if you don’t officiate the game properly and do nothing in terms of calling penalties, you have the opposite effect and still become the story.  How Corey Williams can blatantly shove an official and not get ejected, let alone not even draw a penalty, is ridiculous.  And Corey Williams was a determining factor in the outcome.  He played well after that incident and broke up a potential game-tying TD for the 49ers late in the 3^rd quarter, making the 49ers settle for a FG.  I already mentioned the missed holding call on the Jacoby Jones’ return TD to open the second half.  On the Chris Culliver missed INT, Torrey Smith completely offensive pass interfered with Culliver, preventing him from completing the INT.  And not to pile on, but I echo the sentiments of Head Coach Jim Harbaugh.  The refs missed two defensive penalties on that last goal-line series.  On the second down play, Jimmy Smith completely shoves Michael Crabtree in the back at the goal-line, preventing him from making a TD catch.  AND HOW DO YOU NOT CALL DEFENSIVE HOLDING ON JIMMY SMITH ON 4^TH AND GOAL!!!  Granted, it wasn’t the best play call and I don’t agree with the play; but that was a DEFENSIVE HOLDING, 5 YARD PENALTY, HALF THE DISTANCE TO THE GOAL, and AUTOMATIC FIRST DOWN!!!!  AND THE EXCUSE OF “WE DON’T MAKE THAT CALL AT THE END OF GAMES,” WRONG!!!!  THAT’S WHEN YOU NEED TO MAKE THAT CALL!!!!!!  IT’S THE MOST IMPORTANT PART OF THE GAME!!!!!!  BLOW THE WHISTLE!!!!!!  MAKE THE CALL!!!!!!!!  UUUUUURRRRRRRGGGGGGG!!!!!!!!

I digress.          

Prop Bets –

Every year, I participate in betting on the numerous, outrageous prop bets that Vegas creates for the Super Bowl.  This year, I wagered $30 on the prop bets this Super Bowl.  Here are the results:

Total bets wagered:  $30.00

Total winnings:  $27.56

Net Loss:  -$2.44

Will there be a Safety:  Yes +650 (bet $1.00 to win $6.50) – WON!

Team to Commit the 1^st Penalty:  Ravens -120 (bet $1.00 to win $0.83) – LOST!

O/U Jersey Number of Player to score First TD:  Over 27.5 even (bet $1.00 to win $1.00) – WON!

Team to Use Coaches Challenge First:  49ers -105 (bet $1.00 to win $0.95) – WON!

Distance of First Punt of the Game:  Over 48.5 -110 (bet $1.00 to win $0.91) – WON!

Will Both Teams Make a 33 or Longer FG:  Yes +120 (bet $1.00 to win $1.20) – WON!

Longest Made FG of the Game:  Over 45.5 -110 (bet $1.00 to win $0.91) – LOST!

Longest TD of the Game:  Over 45.5 -105 (bet $1.00 to win $0.95) – WON!

49ers Total Points:  Over 26.5 -120 (bet $1.00 to win $0.83) – WON!

Ravens Total Points:  Under 22.5 -110 (bet $1.00 to win $0.91) – LOST!

Team to Win the Coin Toss:  49ers -105 (bet $1.00 to win $0.95) – LOST!

Coin Toss:  Tails -102 (bet $2.00 to win $1.96) – LOST!

Player to score the 1^st TD:  Vernon Davis +1200 (bet $1.00 to win $12.00) – LOST!

Player to score the 1^st TD:  Frank Gore +800 (bet $1.00 to win $8.00) – LOST!

Super Bowl MVP:  NaVorro Bowman +7500 (bet $1.00 to win $75.00) – LOST!

Super Bowl MVP:  Michael Crabtree +1800 (bet $1.00 to win $18.00) – LOST!

Super Bowl MVP:  Patrick Willis +5000 (bet $1.00 to win $50.00) – LOST!

Super Bowl MVP:  Justin Smith +10000 (bet $1.00 to win 100.00) – LOST!

Super Bowl MVP:  Frank Gore +1000 (bet $1.00 to win $10.00) – LOST!

Super Bowl MVP:  Aldon Smith +4500 (bet $1.00 to win $45.00) – LOST!

Super Bowl MVP:  Ray Lewis +800 (bet $1.00 to win $8.00) – LOST!

What Color Gatorade that is dumped on HC:  Lime +550 (bet $1.00 to win $5.50) – NO ACTION!    

What Color Gatorade that is dumped on HC:  Blue +600 (bet $1.00 to win $6.00) – NO ACTION!

What Color Gatorade that is dumped on HC:  Red +350 (bet $1.00 to win $3.50) – NO ACTION!

Who will the Winning Coach Thank First:  Family +600 (bet $1.00 to win $6.00) – LOST!

Who will the MVP Thank First:  Coaches/Owner +500 (bet $1.00 to win $5.00) – LOST!

O/U Alicia Keys Singing the Anthem:  Over 2:05 minutes -135 (bet $3.00 to win $2.22) – WON!

In the end, the 49ers lost this game, just as much as I would say the Ravens won it.  If the ball bounces the other way or if the 49ers don’t make one or two of those bad mistakes, this is a more rejoicing blog post.  But it’s not, and we have to live with that.  I still think the 49ers are a better team.  I think if this game were played over again, or played 10 times; the 49ers would win 7-8 of them.  But on February 3^rd, 2013, for one day, the Baltimore Ravens were better.     

Mr. Armchair Speaking!!!