Mr. Armchair’s 2013 NBA Lottery Mock Draft and Recap of the NBA Finals –

Before I get into my mock NBA Draft lottery, I want to first recap briefly the NBA Finals.  The Miami Heat beat the San Antonio Spurs in Game 7 to win the NBA Championship, the Heats second title in as many years.  B……F…….D!!! 

Ok, onto my mock draft…..

Alright, I kid.  Well, I don’t somewhat.  I was touting this stat last week when I heard it, but in the last 30 years, my entire life-span, only 8 different teams have won the NBA Championship.  8!!!  That’s less than a third of your league!!!  That is just insane to me.  And with today’s NBA, where you have super-teams being formed because players are dictating what team they want to play for and who they want to play with, and now with the whole Clippers/Celtics/Doc Rivers situation where you have a coach dictating where and who he wants to coach, I don’t see this changing anytime soon.  The rich will get richer and the poorer will remain poor.  Once the Spurs quietly fade into the night whenever Tim Duncan, Gregg Popovich, and company decide to retire, there is little hope for the small-market teams to buck this trend.  If you are a fan of a small-market team, you better start praying that you land a superstar in the draft and that your franchise has the finance wherewithal to resign him once he becomes a free agent. 

Ok, onto the actually series.  The NBA Finals were somewhat exciting this postseason.  It took the Heat and Spurs 6 games to finally make these NBA finals compelling, but nevertheless games 6 and 7 were fun to watch.  I predicted in an earlier blog post that the Miami Heat would win the Finals in six games, and I thought I was being generous to the Spurs in making that prediction.  I felt LeBron would show his dominance over anyone and everyone on the Spurs and just take over this series and end it early.  And for the early portion of these Finals, that wasn’t the case.  LeBron played timid and passive, relying and waiting on others on the Heat to contribute.  This is what dragged the series on and into seven games.  By about half way through the second half of Game 6, LeBron finally said enough is enough.  He took over the game and series; and with a helping hand from Jesus Shuttlesworth, aka Ray Allen, hitting a routine clutch three, the Heat were able to come away victorious in Game 6 and ultimately prevail in the decisive Game 7.  In the end, my assessment I felt was right.  For the Spurs to win these Finals, they needed every one of their key players to be at their best.  For the Heat to win these Finals, they needed LeBron to keep being LeBron and have everyone else just get him the ball in crunch time and maybe contribute when needed.  The Spurs just couldn’t rise up and beat LeBron, not the Heat.  They may have been a better overall team, but they weren’t better than LeBron.  And we were witnesses.   

Ok, on to the NBA Draft.  By all accounts, this NBA Draft stinks.  When the consensus #1 overall pick has a torn Achilles and can’t even suit up for the team that drafts him, you know it’s a bad draft.  Kenyon Martin’s broken leg to the New Jersey Nets in the 2000 NBA Draft thinks this draft is bad.  Ok, I don’t believe this 2013 draft is as bad, but to give you a perspective, here is how that Kenyon Martin 2000 NBA Draft Lottery went:

1.      New Jersey Nets – Kenyon Martin, PF

2.      Vancouver Grizzlies – Stromile Swift, PF/C

3.      Los Angeles Clippers – Darius Miles, SF/SG

4.      Chicago Bulls – Marcus Fizer, PF

5.      Orlando Magic – Mike Miller, SF/SG

6.      Atlanta Hawks – DerMarr Johnson, SG/SF

7.      Chicago Bulls – Chris Mihm, C/PF (traded to Cleveland)

8.      Cleveland Cavaliers – Jamal Crawford, SG (traded to Chicago)

9.      Houston Rockets – Joel Przybilla, C (traded to Milwaukee)

10.  Orlando Magic – Keyon Dooling, SG (traded to Los Angeles Clippers)

11.  Boston Celtics – Jerome Moiso, PF

12.  Dallas Mavericks – Etan Thomas, PF/C

13.  Orlando Magic – Courtney Alexander, SG (traded to Dallas)

14.  Detroit Pistons – Mateen Cleaves, PG

As you can see, that was a horrible draft.  Now I don’t think this year’s NBA Draft is that bad, but accordingly to the draft experts who study this far more extensively than I do, they think this draft is one of the weaker drafts we’ve seen in recent years.  I actually subscribe to Chad Ford’s logic in that this draft may lack a superstar, but there is some good depth to this draft and prospects that have the potential to be good, not great, NBA players.   

I always like to give a breakdown on where teams are drafting and what they can expect in terms of the type of player they should be getting when drafting where they are.  If you are drafting in the top 5, and if you definitely have the #1 overall pick, you should expect to draft a player that will turn out to be an All-Star caliber player or at the very least, a very good starter for your team.  If you are drafting in-between picks #6-#14, you should expect to draft a player who will turn out to be a starter for your team or at the very least, a good rotation player.  If you are drafting outside of the Lottery, picks #15-#30, all you are hoping for is to draft a player who will become a good, off-the-bench, rotation-type player for your team.  It is unrealistic to think that you can draft someone in the 20’s and expect them to become an All-Star or show the same productivity as a Top 5 or 10 pick.  Now that’s not to say it can’t happen, and obviously there are cases where history proves us wrong, but it’s expectations we are talking about and there are those players who exceed them.  Lastly, any player drafted in the second-round, all you are expecting, and or hoping for, is that they just make the team and help fill out the roster.  Again, there are cases.  

So if you were to swing this argument back around and equate this to the NFL Draft, it would look something like this:

Top 5 = 1^st round picks

6 – 14 = 2^nd to 3^rd round picks

15 – 30 = 4^th to 5^th round picks

2^nd round = 6^th to 7^th round picks      

You can agree with that or not, but with that reasoning in line, here is Mr. Armchair’s 2013 NBA Lottery Mock Draft.

1.  Cleveland Cavaliers – Nerlenes Noel, PF/C Kentucky

He is supposedly the best talent in the draft with the most potential.  I’m not convinced that he goes #1, but as of now Noel is the consensus.  Alex Len and Otto Porter are also rumored to be in the mix as well it’s a very real possibility that the Cavs flat out trade the pick.  Stay tuned.    

2.  Orlando Magic – Ben McLemore, SG Kansas

I like McLemore as a player and think he can be one of the few players in this draft who can become a potential All-Star.  I wouldn’t read too much into his season with Kansas, as he was a freshman playing with upperclassmen and naturally anyone would take a timid approach.

3.  Washington Wizards – Otto Porter, SF Georgetown   

There is no better player-to-team fit than Porter going to the Wizards here.  They have a glaring need at the SF position and Potter could slide right in a make an immediate impact.  He, along with John Wall and Bradley Beal, make up a nice, young core to build around.  

4.  Charlotte Bobcats – Alex Len, C Maryland

The Bobcats are in serious need of some front-court help, as they got zero offensive production from that position.  Len has a nice offensive game and can play with his back to the basket.  Plus, new head coach, Steve Clifford, is a big-man guru.  Len could also go #1 however.  

5.  Phoenix Suns – Victor Oladipo, SG Indiana

My NBA Draft crush!  Normally with my crush, I try my best to finagle and plot out a scenario to where I can have my crush be drafted by my Sacramento Kings.  Unfortunately, I couldn’t find a plausible way to make it happen.  The Suns get arguably the best player in the draft.  

6.  New Orleans Pelicans – Anthony Bennett, SF/PF UNLV

I know Bennett is listed as a PF, but there are some who think he is athletic enough to play SF, and I think the Pelicans will try that route with him.  They also need guard help, and Trey Burke or Michael Carter-Williams can go here as well, but Bennett is more talented than them.

7.  Sacramento Kings – C.J. McCollum, PG/SG Lehigh

He was just in town for his second workout with the Kings, and supposedly, he can shoot the lights out.  I know the last thing the Kings need is another guard, but they need players who cannot just shoot the ball, but make the shot, and McCollum does that well.  And I’m not worried about him being able to play in the NBA coming from a small school like Lehigh and being an upperclassman.  I think Stephen Curry from Davidson and Damian Lillard from Weber State bucked that train-of-thought.  Just please don’t take Shabazz Muhammad here!!    

8.  Detroit Pistons – Trey Burke, PG Michigan

The Michigan kid stays home with the Pistons.  There is talk that the Pistons will move current PG, Brandon Knight, to SG, opening up a spot at PG.  Burke is a proven winner who can shoot the ball from anywhere on the court.  Good pick here for the Pistons.

9.  Minnesota Timberwolves – Kentavious Caldwell-Pope, SG Georgia

He already won the award for best name in the draft.  Supposedly this kid really impressed at the NBA Scouting Combine so his star has been on the rise.  The Timberwolves are in need of a big guard who can shoot, and Pope is also listed at 6’6” and can shoot. 

10.  Portland Trail Blazers – Cody Zeller, PF/C Indiana

The Trail Blazers currently have J.J. Hickson listed as their starting C.  That is all I needed to see to make Zeller here the best fit for them.  He adds much needed size to their front court, moves well running up and down the floor, and has a nice touch on his outside jumper.  I like Zeller.    

11.  Philadelphia 76ers – Steven Adams, C Pittsburgh

I heard Scott Howard-Cooper on the radio say that Adams is moving up boards, and then I read SI’s Point Forward which says if Adams is taken in the lottery, he’s overrated.  Adams makes complete sense here, as the failed Andrew Bynum experiment is finally over for the 76ers.

12.  Oklahoma City Thunder (from Toronto via Houston) – Michael Carter-Williams, PG Syracuse OKC was a completely different team when Russell Westbrook went down with his injury in the playoffs.  They had no true back-up PG, and had to play SG, Reggie Jackson, out of position in order to supplement the loss.  Carter-Williams can’t shoot, but his PG skills are just fine.

13.  Dallas Mavericks – Sergey Karasev, SG Russia

The Mavs want no part of this pick along with the guaranteed money on their books, as they want as much cap space available to make a run at a high-priced free agent.  They’ll most likely trade the pick.  If they can’t, they’ll take the best available euro and stash him overseas.   

14.  Utah Jazz – Shane Larkin, PG Miami   

The Jazz current depth chart at the PG position reads like this:  Mo Williams, Jamaal Tinsley, Earl Watson, and Jerel McNeal.  I think the Jazz are praying that someone like Trey Burke, C.J. McCollum, or Michael Carter-Williams falls to them, but in this scenario, they’ll settle for Larkin.

Mr. Armchair Speaking –

Mr. Armchair Very Brief NBA Finals Preview –

Executives at NBA Headquarters can breathe a collective sigh of relief.  The NBA Finals will not feature two small-market teams, as the Miami Heat finished off the Indiana Pacers in Game 7 of the Eastern Conference Finals on Monday.  The Heat will now square off against the San Antonio Spurs, who defeated the Memphis Grizzlies in a four game sweep last week.  So now that the NBA has their dream match-up, let’s break this NBA Finals down.

Miami – The Heat are coming off a more challenging series than people thought it would be against the Indiana Pacers, winning the series in seven games.  For the Pacers, they stayed true to their game plan of being physical with LeBron when he droves to the hole, and to dominate the paint on both ends of the court.  For the Heat, LeBron answered the call and stepped-up to the challenge the Pacers were throwing at him, and he won.  That’s the bottom line: LeBron won this series for the Heat, with a helping hand from Chris “Birdman” Anderson of all people.  LeBron proved yet again that he is an unstoppable force and now that he is going up against the Spurs, the team that prevented him from winning his first NBA Finals in 2007 when he was with the Cleveland Cavaliers, he now has additional motivation to win this go-around.

Spurs – The Spurs have been resting comfortably for about a week now in their retirement community they all live in.  This was much needed however, as the Spurs have been banged up with nagging injuries that has plagued them since their series victory against the Golden State Warriors.  Tony Parker has been dealing with a calf injury, Tim Duncan was sick with the flu, and who knows how many injuries Manu Ginobili is dealing with.  The additional rest the Spurs were able to get by the Heat/Pacers series going seven games can only be a positive and will surely provide for a much better series than if the Spurs had to play any more games against the Grizzlies than necessary.  And lord knows they will need everyone at full strength if they have any hope of defeating the Heat in the NBA Finals. 

Key Match-ups – There are two key match-ups that will dictate the way this series goes:  LeBron James v. whoever guards him, and Tony Parker v. Dwayne Wade.  I imagine from the Spurs point-of-view that they will start the game off with Kawhi Leonard guarding LeBron, and while Leonard has established himself this postseason as a formidable defender, this is LeBron we’re talking about here.  And not just any LeBron, a motivated, ticked-off LeBron, who openly admitted that he wants revenge against the Spurs for beating him in the NBA Finals in 2007.  He is poised and playing the best basketball of his career right now.  Good Luck guarding him, Kawhi Leonard, Danny Green, Manu Ginobili, Boris Diaw, Matt Bonner, and whoever else Gregg Popovich throws at LeBron.

The second key match-up is Tony Parker v. Dwayne Wade.  During the Warriors and Grizzlies series, Parker took complete control over the Spurs and was the driving force behind those series victories.  Despite being hampered by nagging injuries, he is showing no signs of slowing down or losing a step.  If he gets out into the open floor and able to drive the lane, with the addition of his mid-range jumper working for him on those pick-in-rolls with Duncan, he can again go on a tear and take over this series.  It will be up to Dwayne Wade to try to stop Parker though.  While Mario Chalmers may be the starting PG of the Heat and would probably start the game off guarding Parker, I think eventually Coach Erik Spoelstra will move Wade over and have him guard Parker.  Though Wade may not be as quick as Chalmers, he is bigger and stronger and would be able to fight through those pick-in-roll sets the Spurs like to run.  Wade however really showed last series against the Pacers that he is starting to slow down and one has to wonder if he has enough left in the tank to guard a player as quick as Parker is.               

Overall – For the Spurs to win this series, they’ll need every one of their key players to be at their best in order to beat the Heat.  They’ll need Tim Duncan to dominate the paint like Roy Hibbert did for the Pacers, which I think won’t be as easy for Duncan to do as it was for Hibbert.  I was really impressed by how Hibbert played against the Heat, controlling the inside of the paint offensively.  While I know Duncan is a Hall-of-Famer, he is 37 years old and not as athletic as he used to be.  I think Duncan will be easier to guard for the Heat than Hibbert was. 

For the Heat, they just need LeBron to keep being LeBron, and for everyone else to just get him the ball and contribute when needed.  That is pretty much it in terms of game planning for the Heat.   

Prediction – Heat will win in six games.  Heat will win the first two games in Miami, they’ll go to San Antonio were the Spurs will take two of three on their home court, making the series 3-2 advantage Heat going back to Miami.  The Heat won’t wait till Game 7; no need for the drama.  The Heat will take it in Game 6.  

Mr. Armchair Speaking!!!