NFL Football Preview –
At last, another NFL season is upon us!!! While some people may have questioned whether or not we would even have a season, there was no doubt in Mr. Armchair’s mind that we would be at this point when the dreaded lockout began. The NFL is arguably the nation’s most popular sport, and there was no way that the commissioner, owners, or the players would let any games by missed due to their bickering over how to split a $9 billion dollar pie. So for my peace of mind, and much to the shagrin of Ms. Loveseat, NFL Football lives, and it couldn’t come soon enough.
I offer to you now, my NFL 2011 Preview
NFC East –
Philadelphia Eagles – 12-4
Analysis: The Eagles’ season hinges on the health of Michael Vick and with the newly formed “Dream Team” defensive secondary (Nnamdi Asomugha, Asante Samuel, and Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie), there is no reason why the Eagles can’t go far in the playoffs. They still play in a tough NFC East Division, so I can see the Eagles splitting games with the New York Giants and Dallas Cowboys, but there aren’t many games on the schedule that will pose a problem for them. They are my early favorites to win the NFC Conference.
Dallas Cowboys – 10-6
Analysis: With starting QB Tony Romo back from injury and now healthy, there is no reason why their offense couldn’t be the best in the league. They have two high-powered WRs in Miles Austin and Dez Bryant, and the always reliable Jason Witten. Felix Jones is being handed the keys to the backfield as the starting RB, so it is now his time to shine. If the offensive line can keep Romo upright and open running lanes for Jones, this offense could be scary. But that is a big “IF”.
New York Giants – 9-7
Analysis: Eli Manning, while throwing a ton of INT’s last season, also managed to throw 31 TD’s. With the break out year of Hakeem Nicks and with Mario Manningham finally starting at the other WR position, Eli will throw for similar TD numbers. What will ultimately hold the Giants back from making the playoffs is their schedule. After the month of October, the Giants have games at New England, home against Philly, at New Orleans, home against Green Bay, at Dallas, at the New York Jets, and home against Dallas to finish off the season. It could be an ugly finish to the season for them.
Washington Redskins – 5-11
Analysis: Whenever you have to start Rex Grossman as your starting QB, you are by law not allowed to win no more than 5 games. Yeah, yeah, I know Sexy Rexy lead the Chicago Bears to the Super Bowl, but like the Trent Dilfer led Baltimore Ravens team, the Chicago Bears were a defensive led team. Their defense has some potential, but it is not good enough to flat out win games for them, which is what will need to happen for this team to win more than 5 games. Their offensive line, along with their schedule, will keep this team in the hunt to win the "Suck for Luck" sweepstakes.
NFC North –
Green Bay Packers – 12-4
Analysis: They are returning all of the same key parts from last year’s Super Bowl team, as well as get starting TE Jermichael Finley and starting RB Ryan Grant back from injury. And there hasn’t been a better team in the league that has drafted better in the past 5 years than the Green Bay Packers. Last year proved that, as this team is loaded with depth behind every position, so if another key position player not named Aaron Rodgers goes down with an injury, this team will be just fine.
Detroit Lions – 10-6
Analysis: I never thought that I would say this, but the Detroit Lions will make the playoffs this season! They have drafted well and put together a nice team, starting with QB Matthew Stafford, RB Jahvid Best, and WR Calvin Johnson, and then moving on to the defense with #1 beast DT Ndamukong Shu. A lot is riding on the healthy right shoulder of QB Matthew Stafford, but if he can stay healthy, he could easily be a top 10 QB in this league. The potential with this team can be so great and with the economic situation and despair the city of Detroit is facing, you can’t help but root for this team to win.
Chicago Bears – 8-8
Analysis: Listen, I know this team made the NFC Championship game last season, but there is no way they repeat that feat again this season. They open the season at home against Atlanta, then travel to New Orleans, then home against Green Bay. They’ll start the season 0-3 and after a win against Carolina, they have games at Detroit and Tampa Bay. It is more than likely that the Bears are 2-5 going into the bye week. QB Jay Culter was the most sacked QB in the NFL last season, and I hope his life insurance policy is up to date because his fate is sealed again. Although this time, he doesn’t have super hottie Kristin Cavallari to nurse him back to health.
Minnesota Vikings – 6-10
Analysis: I don’t think they are as bad as some people would like to think, but there just isn’t a whole lot of talent on this team and nothing too exciting about them. You know what you are getting with RB Adrian Peterson, but after that, blah!!! This is just a boring football team, starting with QB Donovan McNabb. If you are going to suck, might as well suck with young players so you can develop them. The over/under on what week we will see rookie QB Christian Ponder starting for the Vikings is right now set at week 13, and I may take the under, as I am a betting man.
NFC South –
New Orleans Saints – 12-4
Analysis: Their schedule this year is a cake walk, as they play an easy non-division schedule. Drew Brees seems primed to have another MVP type season. It’s hard to bet against his will and determination. And I really like what they did in the draft by drafting DE Cameron Jordan and RB Mark Ingram. Everyone is looking for Ingram to have a breakout season, but don’t lose sight of Jordan. I personally watched every game he played in college and he has great technique when dealing with both the run and the pass. He may turn out to be the better addition of the rookies.
Atlanta Falcons – 11-5
Analysis: The Atlanta Falcons are all-in this year. They mortgaged their future by off-loading basically every draft pick for the next couple of years for rookie WR Julio Jones. While I believe that Matt Ryan is on the verge on becoming a great QB, I don’t believe the team as a whole is ready to surpass New Orleans just yet. I don’t think their defense is quite there yet, which is where the Julio Jones trade may come back to hurt them. One NFL expert (won’t say names, but he write for SI) picked the Falcons to play in the Super Bowl. If they do, then he really deserves his paycheck.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers – 9-7
Analysis: I like the direction the Tampa Bay Buccaneers are going in, and just because they will finish with a worst record than last year doesn’t necessary mean that progress wasn’t made. They have high- quality talent both on the offensive and defensive sides of the ball. They have nice building blocks in Josh Freeman, LeGarrette Blount, Mike Williams, Kellen Winslow, Gerald McCoy, and Aqib Talib. The struggle will be to keep this group out of trouble off the field. When they peak, they will win a lot of games.
Carolina Panthers – 5-11
Analysis: The good news, they have parts to work with. The bad news, they are starting QB Cam Newton. Ok, that was harsh. I don’t think Cam is necessarily the next JaMarcus Russell, but I also don’t think he will be the second coming of Steve Young. In the preseason, Cam only managed the complete 42% of his passes. That isn’t going to cut it as a NFL starting QB. Luckily, the Panthers have two very capable starting RB’s in DeAngelo Williams and Jonathan Stewart that can help carry the load for Cam, and their defense has quality players on it. They aren’t the worst team in the league if you can take that away as a positive.
NFC West –
Arizona Cardinals – 8-8
Analysis: Again, the winner of this division will finish with no better than a .500 record. The Cardinals now have a decent starting QB in Kevin Kolb, but I wouldn’t automatically put them in the playoffs because of it. He still has a sub .500 record as a starting QB and has thrown for more INT’s and TD’s. Still, he is better than anything else the Cardinals had on their roster, which makes Larry Fitzgerald a happy franchise player. As long as Kolb can get the ball anywhere in the vicinity of Fitzgerald, their offense will be much improved.
St. Louis Rams – 7-9
Analysis: This is definitely a team on the up-swing. Sam Bradford showed signs that he will be a very good QB in this league. The Rams have done good by assembling a solid offensive line to protect their franchise QB and open holes for work-horse RB Steven Jackson. If they could get a solid number #1 WR in the next couple of years either via the draft or free agency, this could be a really nice team that can do some damage in the NFC. Their defense still needs some work as well, but Chris Long is that Jared Allen type of DE who can take over and control a game.
Seattle Seahawks – 6-10
Analysis: I have the Seahawks winning 6 games, but that’s only because QB Tarvaris Jackson will not be the starting QB for the majority of the season. He may start game 1, but come game 4 (for Seahawks fans sake), Charlie Whitehurst will be the starting QB, and with him, they may have a decent shot at winning some ball games. He’ll have WR Sidney Rice and TE Zach Miller as targets to throw to, and if they can also get decent play from their o-line, they will be able to move the ball on some defenses.
San Francisco 49ers – 6-10
Analysis: As a 49ers fan, I’m prepared to take this season and have it be a wash for new Head Coach Jim Harbaugh. With the lockout and shorten offseason, he hasn’t had the opportunity to thoroughly evaluate the players on the roster that he had to work with. And while I think their defense is the best in the division and very good overall when compared to others in the NFL, I just have no faith in Alex Smith to get the ball in the 49ers' playmakers. The bad thing is, they won’t suck enough to win the “Suck for Luck” sweepstakes.
AFC East –
New England – 12-4
Analysis: I'm convinced Bill Belichick could take a UFL team and coach them up to be 8-8 in the NFL. Give him a team with as much talent as the Patriots have, 12-4 will be a breeze. Overall, they may be the most complete team in the NFL, with so much depth and talent at every position. The one position that gives me pause is their defensive secondary, but CB Devin McCourty is quickly becoming a shut-down corner and with the talent they added on the d-line, opposing QBs won’t have much time to pick the secondary a part.
New York Jets – 11-5
Analysis: Two things: first, this team will feel the effects of not winning the Nnamdi Asomugha sweepstakes, as Antonio Cromartie is not the same caliber CB as Nnamdi is. Second, this is going to be Mark Sanchez’s 3rd year as the starting QB and he has to step up and start living up to the hype. So far, he has been a serviceable QB at best for the Jets, and they still managed to come within a game of making the Super Bowl last year. For the Jets to finally take that next step, they will need Sanchez to start playing like a franchise QB. Otherwise, it’s going to be another let-down season for the Jets.
Miami Dolphins – 6-10
Analysis: When your fans are booing the starting QB during training camp workouts, you know you are destined for failure. This is a make or break season for Head Coach Tony Sparano and unfortunately, I see him being the first head coach fired mid-season in the NFL. His defense can stop teams and they have playmakers, but with Chad Henne as your starting QB, you just aren’t going to win too many games. Not pulling the trigger on a trade that would have brought them Denver’s starting QB Kyle Orton or not addressing that need in the draft will be his undoing.
Buffalo Bills – 4-12
Analysis: There really isn’t a whole lot to say about the Buffalo Bills other than, they are the Buffalo Bills. This may be the worst team in the NFL. When looking at their roster, there is not a whole lot to get excited about. And apparently, the Bills must have a thing for QB’s who attend private, highly prestigest, education based colleges because the QB they have starting for them this season is a Harvard grad, and the QB that will be starting for them next season is currently attending and playing his football at Stanford University.
AFC North –
Baltimore Ravens – 12-4
Analysis: Ray Lewis called his shot by saying that if the Baltimore Ravens win the Super Bowl this year, he will retire. For selfish reason, I hope that is not the case, but when looking that this roster and team, it’s hard to pick against them. Again, like the New York Jets and Detroit Lions, the Ravens season all hinges on the arm of starting QB Joe Flacco. If he can produce the type of numbers that he is capable of and that people seem to want to think he can produce, then we may be seeing the last of Ray Lewis, and that sucks.
Pittsburgh Steelers – 12-4
Analysis: This division will come down to the Steelers and the Ravens and the winner will be a matter of who gets the better of one another. The only reason why I have the Steelers losing 4 games is because they always seem to have at least 1-2 let down games. And while their defense is as good as any in the league, the one thing that is holding the Steelers back is their offensive line. I see this as being their weak link and while they are explosive WRs, Big Ben won’t be able to get them the ball if he is running for his life.
Cleveland Browns – 7-9
Analysis: This team showed signs of life toward the end of the season and there is no reason why they can’t carry that over into this season. Peyton Hillis burst onto the scene last season so defenses will be stacking the box in an effort to stop him, but Colt McCoy proves that he can complete a pass, and if he can build off last season, he could have a sneaky good year stat wise. I’m not sure where the pass rush will come from defense, but a 7-9 or 8-8 record is not out of the question for the Browns.
Cincinnati Bengals – 4-12
Analysis: The only competition the Bengals will have an opportunity of winning is the “Suck for Luck” sweepstakes against the Buffalo Bills. And I should take this time to apologize to the Buffalo Bills because after analyzing this roster, this is the worst team in the NFL. Even if they had QB Carson Palmer starting for them, I couldn’t realistically say that this team would win more than 4 games. And I am talking about the Carson Palmer of 6 years ago, pre knee surgery. Even that Carson Palmer couldn’t will this team to more than 4 wins.
AFC South –
Houston Texans – 11-5
Analysis: This has to be the year that the Houston Texans finally make the playoffs. The Texans have been the darlings for teams not living up to expectations. But this year, in a down division and possibly a Peyton Manning-less Colts, the Texans should have no problem winning this division outright. Everyone will look to the offense as being the strength of this team, but look out for this defense, which features a very good linebacking with Mario Edwards, Connor Barwin, Brian Cushing, and DeMeco Ryan. Last year, their pass defense was the worst in the league and with the addition of CB Jonathan Joseph, that aspect of their defense should be much improved.
Indianapolis Colts – 9-7 or 2-14
Analysis: Is there a more important player in the NFL than Peyton Manning? I had to give the Colts two records. One record with a healthy Peyton, and one record without a healthy Peyton. Even with Peyton Manning, I can’t see this team winning more than 9 games. Peyton is good and all, but he can’t make up for their defense. Their defense just won’t be able to stop anyone as their secondary is awful. And if the Colts do end up going the entire season without Peyton, well then, we may have a new front-runner in the “Suck for Luck” sweepstakes.
Tennessee Titans – 6-10
Analysis: The Tennessee Titans are the same exact team as the Minnesota Vikings. Both teams have washed up veteran QB’s and young rookies behind them that will take their starting jobs sooner rather than later, both teams feature high caliber RB’s, both teams have average defenses, and both teams will finish 6-10. And like I said about the Minnesota Vikings, if you are going to suck with a washed up veteran QB, you might as well suck with an inexperience rookie QB so that at least he can learn the system and get some seasoning.
Jacksonville Jaguars – 5-11
Analysis: Again, see my analysis regarding the Minnesota Vikings and Tennessee Titans. The only difference between those two teams and the Jaguars is that they are actually taking my advice. They cut starting QB David Garrard yesterday and while they said Luke McCown will be the opening day starter, prized rookie Blaine Gabbert will soon take over those reigns. And I’m talking very soon, like midway through the 2nd quarter of the opening game. Have you seen Luke McCown play QB?
AFC West –
San Diego Chargers – 11-5
Analysis: The Chargers have been the darlings of the AFC West and there is no reason they can’t repeat as division champs. They play a tough schedule that features games against New England, New York Jets, Green Bay, Baltimore, and Detroit. They are getting stud WR Vincent Jackson back for an entire season, so Phil Rivers will have a reliable target to throw to this season. With a healthy Ryan Matthews and Antonio Gates back, the Chargers offense will be sure to score some points.
Kansas City Chiefs – 8-8
Analysis: I look at the Chiefs, and I see a team that has the talent to win 10-11 games. However, the Chief are going to win 8 games, and it’s going to be a tough 8 games, as they have non-conference games against Detroit, New England, Pittsburgh, Chicago, New York Jets, and Green Bay. The Chief do have a star RB in the making in Jamaal Charles and a QB that led them to the playoffs last year in Matt Cassel, but their tough schedule and an improving division will keep the Chiefs from making the playoffs this season.
Oakland Raiders – 7-9
Analysis: Their defense took a major hit when they lost Nnamdi Asomugha, but the defensive line is solid and Roland McClain is turning out to be a stub linebacker. They still have major question marks on however and if Jason Campbell fails to get the ball to any receiver willing to catch it, it's going to be a long season for Darren McFadden because defensive will stack the box against him. It's going to be especially hard because the Raiders lost Campbells's favorite target, TE Zach Miller to free agency. If DHB ever wanted to live up his hype, the time is now.
Denver Broncos – 6-10
Analysis: If Kyle Orton remains the starting QB for the entire season, this team may actually be competitive and win some ball games. He and Brandon Lloyd teams up to be one of the better QB to WR combos in the league. However, I just don't see that happening, as they have invested too much in Tim Tebow, and eventually, he will need to see the playing field. I like what they are doing on defense, as rookie OLB Von Miller is proving his worth as the #2 pick in last year's draft. He was fielding all over the field in preseason and with Elvis Dumervil coming back from injury, the Broncos should be able to generate a decent pass rush.
Playoff Teams
NFC - Eagles, Packers, Lions, Saints, Falcons, Arizona
AFC - Patriots, Jets, Steelers, Ravens, Texans, Chargers
Championship Games
NFC - Saints over Eagles
AFC - Patriots over Ravens
Super Bowl
Patriots over Saints
Mr. Armchair Speaking!!
No comments:
Post a Comment