Well, it’s that time of year again. It’s Christmas!!! The NFL Draft is upon us. Yes, as Jim Rome would say, I am NFL Draft Guy!!
Mock drafts are hard for me to come up with, especially this year because there is no consensus #1 pick. We have a strong indication of who will go #1, but it’s not a lock like in previous years. Last season, formulating a mock draft was a bit easier than this year because not only was the #1 pick a consensus, but so were picks #2, #3, and #4 for that matter. This season, any number of players could go in the top 5 of picks, making it really hard for us mockers to come up with a confident mock draft. But I guess that’s the fun and challenge of doing one in the first place.
You always feel good and confident going into a draft about your mock. You have an idea and feel for what you think teams will do or what direction they will go in, but one wayward team or one surprise pick, and it completely throws off your mock. I come up with my mock based off of articles and news clips I see, as well as from what I’ve seen when watching the NFL Scouting Combine. Yes, I actually sit down and watch about 5-6 hours of the NFL Scouting Combine. I watch grown men wearing spandex run 40-yard dashes, do broad jumps and verticals, and see how many times they can bench press 225 pounds; and make notes. Yes, I make notes.
Every year, I like to put up my mock draft against the likes of Mel Kiper and Todd McShay and see how well I do against to so-called experts. My personal goal with my mock is to get 1/3 to 1/4 of my picks correct. I normally come up 1-2 picks behind Mel and McShay; but of course, I don’t have the same resources and rolodex as them. But last year, I actually met my goal of getting ¼ of my picks correct, getting 8 out of 32 correct (25%); pretty good I may say. I count a correct pick as either a player getting drafted in the pick we had them or by the team we had them going to, regardless of the number draft pick. Below are last year’s results:
Don Banks, SI.com – 10.5/32 (I gave him a .5 for having the Cleveland Browns trading back into the first-round from the second-round and taking QB Brandon Weeden)
Don Banks, SI.com – 10.5/32 (I gave him a .5 for having the Cleveland Browns trading back into the first-round from the second-round and taking QB Brandon Weeden)
MR. ARMCHAIR, Your favorite NFL Draft expert – 8/32
Michael Lombardi, NFL Network – 8/32
Charley Casserly, NFL Network and ex-NFL GM – 8/32
Todd McShay, ESPN and Scouts Inc. – 8/32
Mel Kiper, Jr., ESPN and known NFL Draft expert – 8/32
Charles Davis, NFL Network, FOX NFL Analyst, and Mr. Armchair reader (I have twitter proof) – 7/32
Peter King, SI.com NFL writer and Insider – 6.5/32 (he also had the Cleveland Browns trading up into the first-round from the second-round and taking QB Brandon Weeden)
Mike Mayock, NFL Network – 6/32
So I won’t keep you in suspense any longer. Here is my 2013 NFL Mock Draft.
Final Mock Draft –
1. Kansas City Chiefs – Luke Joeckel, OT Texas AM
He is the best player available and most NFL ready at the tackle position. He’ll be an instant starter, filling the void at LT for when current LT Branden Albert either moves to OG or leaves via trade or free agency.
2. Jacksonville Jaguars – Ezekiel Ansah, DE BYU
The Jaguars were last in the NFL in defensive sacks last season. Ansah is the highest rated 4/3 DE and has been flying up draft boards, showing raw physical abilities that will hopefully translate into an elite pass rusher.
3. Oakland Raiders – Shariff Floyd, DT Florida
The Raiders have so many needs I don’t where to begin. At this point, they just need breathing bodies let alone trying to hit a home run with their 1st round draft pick. Floyd comes close to doing both.
4. Philadelphia Eagles – Eric Fisher, OT Central Michigan
Who would have ever thought we would see the Eagles drafting in the top 5? Fisher is a great choice here to get the Chip Kelly era started. But, don’t be surprise if QB Geno Smith goes to them here as well.
5. Detroit Lions – Dee Milliner, CB Alabama
Milliner is rated by most as the best CB in the draft and when you have to face the likes of Aaron Rodgers and Jay Culter four times a year, it pays to have a shut-down CB in your defensive backfield.
6. Cleveland Browns – Geno Smith, QB West Virginia
Since I can’t predict trades, I’ll have the Browns taking Smith at the #6 spot, but I think what will happen is they will trade down a few slots and get Smith then. Either way, the Brandon Weeden era is over.
7. Arizona Cardinals – Lane Johnson, OT Oklahoma
The Cardinals gave up the most sacks on offense last season and have had a revolving door at QB ever since Kurt Warner retired. Now that they traded for QB Carson Palmer, they have to keep him upright.
8. Buffalo Bills – Chance Warmack, OG Alabama
Mel Kiper is quoted as saying that Warmack is the best OG he’s ever graded. Added him an O-line that gets to block for RB CJ Spiller is mighty tempting. If QB Ryan Nassib is the pick here, it would be a huge bust.
9. New York Jets – Dion Jordan, DE/OLB Oregon
The Jets are completely over-hauling their defense, having either cut, traded, or not resigned 7 of their 11 starters. Jordan would be a great addition to their pass rush, which finished tied for 25th in sacks.
10. Tennessee Titans – Star Lotulelei, DT Utah
Lotulelei was the consensus #1 pick throughout the college football season until a heart condition threw up red flags at the Combine. Now that he’s cleared, the Titans can’t pass on an elite pass rusher.
11. San Diego Chargers – Jonathan Cooper, OG UNC
The Chargers need major work on the O-line, especially after losing starting OG Louis Vasquez. Cooper is the last of the elite O-linemen in this draft, so I can’t see them not jumping on Cooper at this pick.
12. Miami Dolphins – Xavier Rhodes, CB FSU
The Dolphins have a lot of glaring need on their defense, particularly at the CB position, having traded away CB Vonte Davis at the beginning of last season. They stay home and pick Rhodes to fill that void.
13. New York Jets (from Tampa Bay Buccaneers) – Barkevious Mingo, DE LSU
I’m hedging my bet here, as I can see the Jets taking Mingo with the #9 pick. While Jordan and Mingo play the same position, I’m sure Rexy can find a way to get both players on the field at the same time.
14. Carolina Panthers – Sheldon Richardson, DT Missouri
The Panthers hit a home run last draft when they drafted Defensive ROY ILB Luke Kuechly. Richardson would be a good fit to their defense, clogging up blockers in the middle and letting Kuechly roam free.
15. New Orleans Saints – Jarvis Jones, OLB Georgia
Even without their HC Sean Payton, the offense was still able to finish 2nd in the NFL in total yards. On defense, they were last in total yards. Every draft pick from here on out should be spent on defense.
16. St. Louis Rams – Tavon Austin, WR West Virginia
Austin is without a doubt the best and most electrifying WR in the draft, many comparing him to Percy Harvin. After losing WR Danny Amendola in free agency to the NE Patriots, Austin would fill that void nicely.
17. Pittsburgh Steelers – Tyler Eifert, TE Notre Dame
After losing WR Mike Wallace in free agency, the Steelers need another weapon for Big Ben to throw too. With the offense moving back to being run-focused, more conservative short passes, Eifert is a perfect fit.
18. Dallas Cowboys – Kenny Vaccaro, S Texas
Who knows what Mr. Jones is going to do in drafts anymore? The Cowboys need major help at the secondary position to complement their good CB’s. They stay home and pick up Vaccaro with this pick.
19. New York Giants – Menelik Watson, OT FSU
The Giants are getting old and thin on the O-line front and they have to protect their money-maker in QB Eli Manning. Drafting Watson could allow them to move RT Diehl or LT Beatty to the inside, as they are aging.
20. Chicago Bears – Alec Ogletree, ILB Georgia
The Bears are shipping out one ILB in Brian Urlacher and shipping in another in Ogletree. There is another ILB who went to a predominate collegel nearby (Te’o), but I don’t think the Bears want the headache.
21. Cincinnati Bengals – Cordarrelle Patterson, WR Tennessee
WR AJ Green led all Bengals WR in receptions with 97. The next highest WR, Andrew Hawkins, had 51. The next highest WR’s tied with 18. The Bengals have got to give QB Andy Dalton and WR AJ Green more help.
22. St. Louis Rams (from Washington Redskins) – D.J. Fluker, OT Alabama
The Rams continue to revamp and remodel their offense through this draft by taking Fluker with this pick. Fluker provides immediate help, being able to play either OT or OG, which are both needs for a weak Rams O-line.
23. Minnesota Vikings – Manti Te’o, ILB Norte Dame
The elephant in the room can now reveal itself. The Vikings need a ILB in the worst way and supposedly Vikings GM Rick Speilman is very high on Te’o after seeing him at the ND pro day. Good Luck!!
24. Indianapolis Colts – Desmond Trufant, CB Washington
For a team that made the playoffs last season, the Colts have a need at just about every position on the football field. They can go a number of different directions with this pick. Trufant is the best player available.
25. Minnesota Vikings (from Seattle Seahawks) – Bjoern Werner, DE FSU
The Vikings continue to build up their defense in an offensive-driven division. DE Jared Allen isn’t going to play forever so getting Werner, who is the same type of player and motor as Allen, would be a great pickup.
26. Green Bay Packers – Eddie Lacy, RB Alabama
Last season’s Green Bay RB chart: Cedric Benson, Ryan Grant, DuJuan Harris, James Starks, and Alex Green. This group rushed for a combined 1,251 yards. To say GB needs a RB is an understatement.
27. Houston Texans – D.J. Hayden, CB Houston
For as good as the Texans defense was, their pass defense was middle of the pack. Hayden has been cleared of a life-threatening medical condition and Mike Mayock of NFL Network has him rated higher than Milliner.
28. Denver Broncos – Sylvester Williams, DT UNC
The Broncos have needs at every defensive position. In a situation like this, you just draft the best player available and plug him in somewhere. Williams would add bulk and depth to their D-Line. Good value pick here.
29. New England Patriots – Justin Hunter, WR Tennessee
The Pats suffered a huge blow when WR Welker split town for rival Denver. With the uncertain health of both TE Aaron Hernandez and the Gronk, and with cutting WR Brandon Lloyd, the Pats need a WR.
30. Atlanta Falcons – Zach Ertz, TE Stanford
The Falcons had to literally beg and plead current TE and HOF Tony Gonzalez to come back for one more year and shot at the Super Bowl. Eventually, they need to get a successor in place. Ertz is a clone of Gonzo.
31. San Francisco 49ers – Tank Carradine, DE FSU
The 49ers lost two good DL in free agency and when DE Justin Smith went down with an injury late last season, the pass rush virtually disappeared. Carradine is big and would allow Smith to move inside at times.
32. Baltimore Ravens – Matt Elam, S Florida
Coming off their Super Bowl winning season, their defense is now in bad shape. They lost three starters in free agency, including HOF S Ed Reed, and let’s not to forget HOF ILB Ray Lewis. Elam is a solid pick.
Mr. Armchair Speaking!!!
