Mr. Armchair’s Draft Recap and a Kentucky Derby Preview –

Monday was a very sad day for me. I felt so dejected and lost. Christmas was officially over. The three-day extravaganza that is the NFL Draft has come to an end with 253 collegiate football athletes have new jobs and employers. It’s probably one of the greatest days in those young men’s lives; receiving that phone call informing them that they have been drafted to play football in the NFL. Their dreams have finally come true. However, the Monday after the draft is always sad for me. No more mocking. No more reading and watching analysis or listening to podcast. Football goes silent for 2 months.  
 

So how did Mr. Armchair’s Mock Draft hold up against the experts? Quiet well, actually. I got 8 out of 32 correct picks, 25%. Note: a corrected pick counts as either a player getting drafted by the team you had them getting drafted by, or a player getting drafted in the numbered pick you had them getting drafted. Here are the stat lines:

Don Banks, SI.com – 10.5/32 (I gave him a .5 for having the Cleveland Browns trading back into the first-round from the second-round and taking QB Brandon Weeden)

MR. ARMCHAIR, Your favorite NFL Draft expert – 8/32

Michael Lombardi, NFL Network – 8/32

Charley Casserly, NFL Network and ex-NFL GM – 8/32

Todd McShay, ESPN and Scouts Inc. – 8/32

Mel Kiper, Jr., ESPN and known NFL Draft expert – 8/32

Charles Davis, NFL Network, FOX NFL Analyst, and Mr. Armchair reader (I have twitter proof) – 7/32

Peter King, SI.com NFL writer and Insider – 6.5/32 (he also had the Cleveland Browns trading up into the first-round from the second-round and taking QB Brandon Weeden)

Mike Mayock, NFL Network – 6/32

You may argue that most of us had the top 4 picks correct, as they were practically pre-determined before the draft started, as well as the Miami Dolphins’ selection of QB Ryan Tannehill. But what separated Mr. Armchair from the rest of the group was DT Dontari Poe getting drafted by the Kansas City at pick #11, CB Dre Kirkpatrick getting drafted by the Cincinnati Bengals (regardless of pick number), and DE Chandler Jones getting drafted by the New England Patriots (also regardless of pick number).

Before I get into my analysis of each teams draft, I wanted to throw-out some numbers for you in case you were unable to catch the footage of the NFL Draft this year.

39.6 – the number in millions of the people who watched the NFL Draft this year. Is there any doubt that the NFL rules the sports world?

8 – the number of first-round, draft-day trades; double from last year’s draft.

16 – the number of picks (half) in the first-round that changed hands prior to the draft (includes last year’s Cleveland Browns/Atlanta Falcons draft-day trade and the Cincinnati Bengals/Oakland Raiders mid-season trade).

3 – the number of hours it took to complete the first-round; the fastest first-round in NFL Draft history.

70 – the pick number (3^rd round) of the first Punter drafted. That honor goes to the Jacksonville Jaguars who took Cal Punter Bryan Anger.

50-3 – the record of Boise St. QB Kellen Moore - the winningest QB in NCAA History - who went undrafted.

2 – the number of draft-day hotties that took the Internet World and Twitter by storm. The co-leaders in the clubhouse were Minnesota Vikings first-round pick LT Matt Kalil’s mother and Miami Dolphins first-round pick QB Ryan Tannehill’s wife.

Analysis Time –  

It is always hard to analyze or “grade” a draft class right after the draft happens. You can’t truly analyze or “grade” a draft for at least 3-4 years after. When JaMarcus Russell was drafted #1 overall in the 2007 NFL Draft, the great draft-guru Mel Kiper raved about Russell’s “Elway-like” talent and labeled him as a “catch miss” prospect. The so-called experts are often times wrong as they are right about prospect outlooks. But it’s a piece that reader’s and football enthusiast enjoy reading, and therefore they are charged with the duty of judging a draft class upon first glance. So I figure I might as well partake.

Cincinnati Bengals – A

Analysis: I thought Cincinnati had the best draft. I can see every draft pick being a solid contributor this upcoming season, and this was a playoff team last season. Their top 2 needs were CB and OG, and with their two first-round picks, they drafted CB Dre Kirkpatrick and OG Kevin Zeitler. Both will be starters going into the season. They also managed to steal DT Devon Still in the middle of the second-round, who some had graded as a late first-round talent. And don’t sleep on late-round pick WR Marvin Jones (Go Cal Bears), S George Iloka, and RB Dan Herron. This was a great draft for the Bengals.

Pittsburgh Steelers – A

Analysis: I thought Pittsburgh also had a great draft. Everyone knew the Steelers were targeting the O-line, either at OG or OT. However, no one was confident that the Steelers would be able to address those needs at #24 without having to reach for a player. Well, not only did they not reach for a player, they had arguably the best OG in the draft fall to them. OG David DeCastro was rated as a top 10 prospect and how he fell to #24 in beyond my grasp. They also got OT Mike Adams – many feel he would have been a first-round pick if not for off-field issues - in the second-round.

Minnesota Vikings – A-

Analysis: Great chess game by the Vikings. Minnesota was able to convince the Browns that they were fielding offers for the #3 pick with teams looking to trade up for RB Trent Richardson. It was enough to spook the Browns into trading their #4 overall pick along with 3 additional draft picks to the Vikings for their #3 overall. The Vikings were still able to get their guy in LT Matt Kalil and used one of those acquired picks to move back into the first-round a grab S Harrison Smith. I also like late-round picks CB Josh Robinson - winner of the fastest 40-yard dash time at the Combine - and WR Jarius Wright.

Philadelphia Eagles – A-

Analysis: DT was a top need for them coming into the draft. DT Fletcher Cox was the top DT in the draft and they traded up to get him at #12, not costing them all that much in the process. And a bite of a homer analysis here, but ILB Mychal Kendrick from Cal was a great get. I’ve seen almost every game he’s played in and the dude is beastly. DE Vinny Curry will also add to the pass-rush Philly hopes to improve. QB Nick Flores looks to be the new QB-in-waiting for when Mike Vick gets hurts, and we know he will get hurt at some point during the season. CB Brandon Boykins is also underrated.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers – A-

Analysis: They traded out of the #5 spot and a chance to either draft CB Morris Claiborne or WR Justin Blackmon, and moved back to #7 and grabbed SS Mark Barron. You can argue whether CB or SS was a bigger need, but regardless Tampa Bay needed secondary help. Why not trade down and get an extra pick? They ended up using the pick (4^th round pick from Jacksonville) to move back into the first-round and draft RB Doug Martin, fulfilling another need. I also had a first-round grade for LB Lavonte David, who they got in the second-round. They helped themselves out tremendously.
  

Buffalo Bills – B+

Analysis: I liked the Bills draft more than most people. While CB wasn’t a major need, Stephon Gilmore is a major talent and in a division where you play the Patriots twice a year, you need all the talented DB’s you can get. Gilmore will be an immediate starter at CB and with the Bills having signed DE/OLB Mario Williams and DE Mike Anderson to improve their pass-rush; the Bills defense is now greatly improved. The one major need the Bills did have was at OT, and they were able to address it in the second-round with OT/OG Cordy Glenn. He’s another first-round talent who fell to the second-round.

Green Bay Packers – B+

Analysis: The Packers finished last season with the league’s worst defense, ranked #32. How did they address that need? They used their first 6 picks on defensive players. I like the selection of DE/OLB Nick Perry to play opposition Clay Matthews. Perry has a good chance to be that pass-rush specialize and get after the QB. I also like the selection of DT Jerel Worthy. I had him being drafted in the late-first, so to get Worthy in the mid-second was a steal in my opinion. And CB Casey Hampton will get plenty of action as their nickel CB and could be the heir apparent to Charles Woodson.

Indianapolis Colts – B+

Analysis: It was nearly impossible to screw up this year’s first overall pick, so that alone gives them a B grade. But the fact that they didn’t only get the #1 overall rated talent in the draft in QB Andrew Luck, but the Colts were able to snag his favorite target in college and #1 overall rated TE in Coby Fleener. When Fleener went undrafted in the first-round, picking Fleener with the second pick in the second-round was about as much of a lock as them taking Luck with the first pick. I question drafting TE Dwayne Allen with the first pick of the third-round, but I understand why they did it.

San Diego Chargers – B+

Analysis: Anytime you can get a highly-rated talent at a low-level pick, you will always get a good grade in my book. I had DE/OLB Melvin Ingram getting drafted at #7. I understand that there were concerns about what position he would best fit at, but for him to fall to #18 and have players like LB Bruce Irvin and DE Quinton Coples get drafted ahead of him is mind-boggling. The Chargers getting Ingram at #18 is great value. They had major needs along the D-Line and improving the pass-rush and Ingram should aid in solving those problems. DT Kendall Reyes was also good value in the second-round. 

Arizona Cardinals – B

Analysis: I understand why the Cardinals took WR Michael Floyd at #13. He was the second best WR on the board, some having him rated higher than Justin Blackmon. When a talent like that falls to you, it’s hard to pass on despite your pressing needs. I’m not sure if I would have passed on OT Riley Reiff here, as the Cardinals pass-blocking was terrible last season. Floyd will differently help the offense, immediately starting opposite Larry Fitzgerald. The Cards did draft 3 different OT, hoping one of them sticks. My money is on OT Bobby Massie, a second-round rated talent who fell to the fourth-round. 

Baltimore Ravens – B

Analysis: Anytime you can move out of the first-round, acquire an extra pick, and still get your guy who is a first-round talent, who had a good draft. The Ravens were able to move out of the first-round and still draft OLB Courtney Upshaw in the early second-round. I had Upshaw rated as a mid-first talent. The Ravens also filled a need on the O-line by drafting OT/OG Kelechi Osemele, who was a rising prospect coming into the draft. RB Bernard Pierce should see plenty of playing time with Ricky Williams retiring, and late-round picks CB Asa Jackson and WR Tommy Streeter should contribute.

Carolina Panthers – B

Analysis: The Panthers needed help in the middle of their defense, mainly at DT. While DT Fletcher Cox, Dontari Poe, and Michael Brockers were all available, the Panthers selected ILB Luke Kuechly instead. Kuechly is very talented but I would have rather gone after Fletcher Cox at #9 and then address the LB position in the second-round with either ILB Mychal Kendricks or LB Lavonte David. They could have even gone with CB Stephon Gilmore at #9 and then address DT in the second with Kendall Reyes, Jerel Worthy, or even Devon Still. I just didn’t see LB as a major need for the Panthers, but still a good draft.

New England Patriots – B

Analysis: The Patriots have always been known as a team who trades back in the draft in order to stockpile future draft picks, hoarding them in their 401K fund. But this year, the Patriots did something in the draft that no one expected them to do. They actually traded up in the draft. And not only did they do it once, they did it twice! They finally cashed in on those draft picks and got two players who will come in and have an immediate impact on their defense. DE Chandler Jones and LB Dont’a Hightower are two really good football players with excellent football skills and motors. 

San Francisco 49ers – B

Analysis: Despite being 13-3 and winning the NFC West division, their offense at times was horrible and slow. They had no speed or speed threat on the offensive side of the ball. Enter first-round pick WR AJ Jenkins and second-round pick RB LeMichael James. Jenkins ran the 8^th fastest 40-yard dash time at the combine at 4.37, and we’ve all seen what James can do in the open field. And I love what the 49ers did trading wise in the middle rounds. They acquired 3 additional picks for next season, giving them a total of 13 draft picks when you fact in free agent compensatory picks. The future is bright, my friends. 

Dallas Cowboys – B-

Analysis: I love what the Cowboys did with their first-round pick. The Cowboys traded up and got one of the top 5 elite prospects in the draft, CB Morris Claiborne. In a division where you have to face QB’s Eli Manning, Michael Vick, and now Robert Griffin III, getting an elite CB was a must. Claiborne, Carr, and Jenkins make up a good group of CB’s. I wasn’t too thrilled with their third-round selection, however. I would have liked for them to have taken C Philip Blake, who was the second-rated C in the draft. The QB-C exchange was a problem at time for the Cowboys last season. 

Detroit Lions – B-

Analysis: The Lions were another team that benefitted from a highly-rated prospect falling to them. I thought for sure OT Riley Reiff wouldn’t be passed on by the Arizona Cardinals, but they too had a prospect fall to them and they went in a different direction. The Lions have the oldest O-Line in the league and Reiff will be a welcomed addition. This allows OT Jeff Backus to move inside to the interior as he finishes up his career. Detroit took a big swing in the second-round by drafting WR Ryan Broyles. He is coming off a major knee injury and at that time, I feel the Lions had other needs to address. 

Jacksonville Jaguars – B-

Analysis: The Jaguars did a good job at addressing needs with their top two picks. They moved up to #5 and were able to get WR Justin Blackmon, arguably the best WR in the draft. I like this move because if you are ever going to find out if QB Blaine Gabbert can make it in the NFL; he needs a target to throw it. Jacksonville’s WR were some of the worst in the league last season. Now with Blackmon and free agent signee Laurent Robinson, Gabbert has no excuses. I also like the selection of DE Andre Branch in the second. He could have gone in the late-first and no one would have judged.

HOMER ANALYSIS: the Jaguars drafting P Bryan Anger in the third-round was awesome!!! As a Cal football season ticket holder, I’ve watched almost every game he played and the dude can kick it. One of my favorite Bears. Excellent draft pick!!! 

Kansas City Chiefs – B-

Analysis: I’m higher on DT Dontari Poe than most people. People look at his stats at Memphis and see that he’s only had 5 sacks in his college career; in no way making him worthy of being drafted at the #11. But DT/NT stats are misleading to begin with, as getting sacks isn’t there main job. There job is to clog the middle and shield blockers for the linebackers so they can get to the RB easier. With the big, wide frame of Poe, there is no doubt he is capable of doing that. He will team up nicely with DE’s Glenn Dorsey and Tyson Jackson. OG/OT Jeff Allen and OT Donald Stephenson add good depth to the O-line. 

New York Giants – B-

Analysis: They didn’t get great value in the first-round with RB David Wilson, but they got excellent value in the second and third rounds with WR Reuben Randle and CB Jayron Hosley. Wilson is a good RB, but they probably could have traded back about 5-10 spots, acquired extra picks, and still have gotten him in the second-round. I think Tampa Bay trading back up into the first-round and selecting RB Doug Martin (who the Giants really wanted), scared the Giants into drafting Wilson. And getting Randle with the last pick in the second-round was maybe the best value pick of the draft.

Miami Dolphins – C+

Analysis: Is QB Ryan Tannehill the answer to the everlasting Dolphins QB issue? For their sake, I sure hope so. The Dolphins drafted Tannehill to be their savior with the #8 pick. If there is ever a situation that Tannehill can jump into and have any hope so making it, it’s the Dolphins. They hired Green Bay OC Joe Philbin to be their new head coach. Additionally, the Dolphins hired Tannehill’s college coach, Mike Sherman, to be their OC. I liked them drafted OT Jonathan Martin in the second-round and TE Michael Egnew in the third. Fourth-rounder RB Lamar Miller was good value as well.

St. Louis Rams – C+

Analysis: Let me ask, what would have been the better draft class: DT Michael Brocker, WR Brian Quick, CB Janoris Jenkins, and RB Isaiah Peah; or CB Morris Claiborne, WR Stephen Hill, and OT/OG Cordy Glenn? The latter is an A draft class. The former is a C+ draft class. I would have taken CB Morris Claiborne and stayed with two second-rounders, than moving back to #14 and have three seconds. In the second round, taking WR Brian Quick with the first pick was a miss. WR Stephen Hill, DE Courtney Upshaw, TE Coby Fleener, DT Jerel Worthy, and OT/OG Cordy Glenn were better options. 

Washington Redskins – C+

Analysis: The only reason I’m giving the Redskins a C+ is because I love the move of trading up and getting QB Robert Griffin III. Otherwise, I’m not sure what they’re doing here. Along with QB, S and OT were major needs, so I’m puzzled with them drafting OG Josh LeRibeus in the third-round. With S Brandon Taylor and OT Donald Stephenson available in the third-round, I can’t see how they pass on those two. Also, why are they drafting QB Kirk Cousins in the fourth-round? With not having a first-round pick in the next two upcoming drafts, the Redskins can’t afford wasting picks for luxury.

Chicago Bears – C

Analysis: I know DE/OLB Shea McClellin was a late-rising prospect, but taking him at #19 was a bit of a reach. Addressing the O-line was a much bigger need and with OT Riley Reiff sitting there, he would have been the better draft pick for the Bears. The Bears will only go as far as QB Jay Culter will take them and they need to keep him upright. Reiff would have gone a long way to doing that, but instead he goes to your division rival. I’m also not a fan of what they did in the second-round either. WR Alshon Jeffery does fill a need, but with OT Mike Adams and Kelechi Osemele were there to be picked.

Cleveland Browns – C

Analysis: I’m not knocking the Browns here for making the trade with the Viking and giving up 3 picks to move up one spot and draft RB Trent Richardson. If there is a guy that you want and you feel there is a chance that he may not last to your pick, then go get him. The Browns had a surplus of draft picks, so they could afford to pull that move. I’m knocking the Browns for what they did after the Richardson pick, namely the drafting of QB Brandon Weeden with their second first-round pick. I thought it was a wasted pick. How much better is QB Brandon Weeden than Colt McCoy? I guess we’ll find out.

Houston Texans – C

Analysis: I felt drafting DE Whitney Mercilus was an overreaction and knee-jerk solution to the lost of DE Mario Williams. The Texans played most of last year without him, and they were still a dominating defense. With TE Coby Fleener and WR Stephen Hill still available, either one should have been their pick. I’m also not too thrilled with their second pick, third-round selection WR DeVier Posey. I feel they should have stayed in the second-round instead of trading out and drafted WR Reuben Randle, if Mercilus was truly the guy you had to have in the first.

Atlanta Falcons – C-

Analysis: The Falcons didn’t have a first-round pick, as that pick went to the Cleveland Browns in the trade made last draft season. With their second-round pick, the Falcons selected C Peter Konz, who was rated the top C in the draft. However, C wasn’t a need for the Falcons. The Falcons gave up a ton of sacks last season, but it was from the tackle positions on the O-line, not the interior. OT’s Mike Adams and Kelechi Osemele went after Konz and I feel either would have made a bigger impact this season than Konz. It might be a couple years before we hear about Konz making an impact.

Denver Broncos – C-

Analysis: I don’t understand what the Broncos were doing. I’m ok with them trading out of the first-round, as DT was their #1 priority and there were plenty of DT’s available early in the second. They went with DT Derek Wolfe and I felt Kendall Reyes, Jerel Worthy, and Devon Still, who all went after Wolfe, were better options. With their second second-round pick, they went with QB Brock Osweiler. WHAT?! REALLY? First, Osweiler stinks. Secondly, didn’t you just spend $96 million on a HOF QB? I’ll make this prediction: Tim Tebow will win more games in the NFL than Brock Osweiler.
     

New York Jets – C-

Analysis: They get a low grade not because they didn’t address any needs, but it’s who they addressed them with. How the Jets could pass on a player like DE/OLB Melvin Ingram, a player who would have fit their defensive scheme perfectly, for a player like DE Quinton Coples is beyond me. The Jets didn’t need a DE pass-rusher; but they needed an OLB type pass rusher. That player was Ingram. Instead they took Coples with their first-round pick. I like the move to go up in the second-round and get WR Stephen Hill, but he is still raw and I’m not sure if WR Santonio Holmes is the perfect mentor for him.

Tennessee Titans – C-

Analysis: If there is one person who should be the most disgruntled about this draft, it’s RB Chris Johnson. The Titans took WR Kendall Wright in the first-round and I understand the need to provide QB Jake Locker with weapons to throw too; but I felt the O-line was a much bigger need. The Titans last season made Chris Johnson the highest paid RB in NFL history, but with a bad O-line last season, CJ2k quickly became CJ1K. With OG David DeCastro or even OT Riley Reiff, they could have vastly improved their O-line and then target a WR in the second-round, with the second-tier WR’s falling.
 

New Orleans Saints – D+

Analysis: How do you grade a draft class that consists only of 5 players, with the earliest selection coming in the late third? The Saints traded away their first-round selection last season to the Patriots to draft RB Mark Ingram. Then they lost their second-round selection as punishment for Bountygate. And to top it off, they used their first draft pick, #90 overall, on a player who played in the Canadian Football league. The only reason I gave them a + was because I think WR Nick Toon can play in the NFL and was a good get in the fourth-round. It’s a good thing the Saints don’t need too much help through the draft.

Oakland Raiders – D+

Analysis: See my analysis of the Saints, and it’s the same for the Raiders, except the Raiders’ draft class consists of 6 players. The Raiders traded away their first-rounder to the Bengals in the Carson Palmer trade, and they traded their second-round pick to the Patriots in another trade. Thank God for the NFL free agent compensatory pick progress for lost free agents or otherwise I don’t think the Raiders would have any draft picks this year. And like the Saints, the Raiders used their first-draft pick, #95 overall and last in the third-round, on OG Tony Bergstrom. Enough said.

Seattle Seahawks – D

Analysis: To their credit, the Seattle Seahawks draft guys who they want, who they value, and they will draft them with whatever pick they have. They introduced this strategy last year when they drafted OG James Carpenter in the first-round, and they proved it this year by drafted OLB Bruce Irvin. Many saw Irvin as a mid to late second-round pick. No one imagined him going in the mid first-round. But like I said, they have a scheme, they have a value system, and they will draft players accordingly. Drafting QB Russell Wilson in the third was also strange; but hey, it’s their team. 

Really Quick Kentucky Derby Preview –  

Christmas comes around again, as the 138^th Kentucky Derby happens this weekend. 21 horses make up the field for the Run for the Roses and the motto holds true, it is the greatest 2 minutes in sports.

I enjoy the sport of horse racing. The 4 people who read my blog will remember that I wrote a post about my enjoyment for horse racing and how I’m sadden that it’s now labeled as a dying sport. But if there is one race that brings fans and patrons together, it’s the derby.

When picking my horses, I take into account two major factors: the jockey and the trainer. I also look at recent race times on comparable track lengths and turf, and then judge according. But like any other sport, anything can happen. For the derby, I like Union Rags. For the tri-fecta, I’ll take Union Rags with Dullahan and Take Charge Indy.  

Mr. Armchair Speaking -