What’s Wrong with The Freak??

There is much concern in the land of Castoffs and Misfits (SF Giants).  Our ace and franchise face, Tim Lincecum, isn’t having the best of seasons.  His record is 2-4 with a 6.04 ERA, 1.59 WHIP, and a fastball hovering around 89-91 MPH.  Most are attributing Timmy’s wayward season to a drop in velocity.  His fastball doesn’t have the same zip on it like it had when he first exploded onto the scene and on his way to winning back-to-back CY Young Awards (2008 and 2009).  While his lose in velocity should be noted, I don’t believe it’s the main cause of Timmy’s problems and one that shouldn’t be cited as the source.  In watching Timmy pitch this season, he tends to lose focus during, or even at the start of games, which allows for the big inning that has hampered him all season.  He also is getting little run-support from the Giants offense when he pitches, a problem that was consistent last season in his starts (he was the second amongst starting pitchers in lack of run-support last season).  But what’s a bigger concern in my book is his lack of control on his breaking pitches, mainly his curveball.  It’s makes life really easy for hitter when your curveball bounces 3-feet in front of home plate and they can just sit on your fastball.  And when you do get it over the plate, it’s up in the zone and any decent hitter will crush a hanging curve.  It is doing him no good to throw and I believe it’s a pitch that Timmy needs to abandon altogether.     

Normally, a starting pitcher will throw 4 pitches:  fastball, curveball, slider, and change-up.  The fastball will always be the primary pitch a pitcher throws and one that he throws the most often, typically the first pitch of every at-bat.  While Timmy’s fastball may only average 89-91 MPH, OPP BA (opponent’s batting average) is only .270.  He throws his fastball 54% of the time, 63% on first pitch, 56% early in the count, 40% with two strikes, 43% of the time when ahead in the count, and 64% when behind.  Compare that to Justin Verlander (.248, 58%, 72%, 61%, 47%, 42%, and 70%), Clayton Kershaw (.255, 68%, 81%, 73%, 50%, 49%, and 85%), and Roy Halladay (.268, 69%, 74%, 73%, 60%, 62%, and 78%), and it’s comparable.  I know these stats don’t measure velocity and only usage, but what I’m trying to say it hitters aren’t crushing his fastball despite the lost in velocity and he is not afraid to throw his fastball.  When you look at these same stats for his curveball, it tells a different story. 

What separates a good starting pitcher from the rest of the pack are their secondary pitches or “out-pitch.”  The “out-pitch” is normally an off-speed pitch, whether it’s a good change-up, slider, cutter, splitter, or curveball.  Timmy had three excellent out-pitches when he first came up: his slider, curveball, and an awesome change-up; so he has out-pitches, it’s just not his curveball anymore.  Timmy only throws his curveball 9% of the time; however he throws it 16% of the time as his first pitch (second after his fastball), 13% early in the count, 4% with two-strikes, 7% when ahead, and 6% when behind.  Worst yet, the OPP BA on his curveball is .321.  So by these stats, he’s not throwing his curveball when deep into counts, meaning he doesn’t have the confidence in that pitch to throw it for strikes.  And when he does throw the curve, hitters are crushing it, as evident by the high OPP BA.  When compared to his other secondary pitches – the slider and change-up - it’s night and day.  Timmy throws his slider 15% of the time, 12% on first pitch, 14% early in the count, 21% with two-strikes, 19% when ahead, and 12% when behind.  The OPP BA on his slide, .191.  When he throwing his change-up, he throws it 21% of the time, 9% on first pitch, 16% early in the count, 35% with two-strikes, 31% when ahead, and 16% when behind.  The OPP BA on this change-up is .174.  So clearly, Timmy’s two best out-pitches are now his slider and change-up. 

So why even throw the curve, Timmy?  You can make the argument that he has to throw it to keep hitters honest at the plate, but that is insane.  I pulled the same stats on Roy Halladay, and they only chart him for three pitches:  fastball, curve, and change-up.  Halladay’s OPP BA for those three pitches are: fastball is .268, curveball is .173, and change-up is .194.  If you took out Timmy’s curveball, his OPP BA for his three pitches would be: fastball .270, slider .191, and change-up .174.  Roy Halladay overall this season is a 4-4 record with a 3.58 ERA, 1.11 WHIP, and 56 K’s.  Timmy’s painful overall numbers, 2-4 record, 6.04 ERA, 1.59 WHIP, and 53 K’s.  One pitch makes a difference.

                   

I know there are other aspects of Timmy’s pitching that needs more help than just eliminating the curveball from his arsenal.  He needs to fine-tune his mechanics, which we all agree are out-of-whack.  This is not uncommon with Timmy, as this problem has happened in the past.  Normally what happens is that Timmy will go haywire with his mechanics for a couple of starts and his dad, Chris Lincecum, will come down from Seattle, watch some tape with Timmy, and get him back on track.  By the next start, he is back to his old self.  I think it’s about time for Old Lincecum Sr., to come back for a visit.  I also believe that his dad needs to work on Timmy’s mental aspect and pitching approach.  Timmy hasn’t been known as a pitcher who doesn’t go deep into games.  Normally, by the 7^th inning, he has a high pitch count and has to be taken out of the game, leaving the gems he throws up to the bullpen to finish.  I believe Timmy has it in his head that he has to try and pitch to contact instead of strikeouts, in order to save his arm so he can last longer in games.  In 2008, Timmy started 33 games, completing only 2 of them, with 1 shutout.  In 2009, he had 32 starts, 4 complete games, with 2 shutouts.  In 2010 and 2011, he has only 1 complete game, with those being shutouts. 

There is also this notion that Timmy has just peaked, and from here on out we should expect to see a natural regression from him.  I don’t necessarily buy that notion either, especially at his age (27).  In today’s baseball world, tradition baseball stats such as ERA and K’s aren’t viewed the same as they used to be.  With the advent of sabermetrics, we have to look deeper into the stats of a pitcher to see how good he really is.  So, let’s get all analytical and dive into sabermetrics with Timmy.  In 2008 and 2009, when Timmy won back-to-back CY Young Awards, his numbers were:

2008:  ERA 2.62, WHIP 1.172, H/9 7.2, BB/9 3.3, SO 265, SO/9 10.5, BA BIP (BA Balls in Play) .310

2009:  ERA 2.48, WHIP 1.047, H/9 6.7, BB/9 2.7, SO 261, SO/9 10.4, BA BIP .288

Those numbers are plush and hard to argue with.  In 2010, he did experience a regression were those numbers fell, but I think winning a World Series and pitching lights out in the playoffs trumps anything he did in the 2010 regular season, so I won’t post those numbers.  But last season, Timmy got back on track:

2011:  ERA 2.74, WHIP 1.207, H/9 7.3, BB/9 3.6, SO 220, SO/9 9.1, BA BIP .288

While these numbers are obviously not as spectacular as in 2008 and 2009, they are pretty comparable, with the expectation of 1 less K/9 (I would like to note that despite the awful season Timmy is having, his K/9 is back up to 10.0).  So when looking at his 2008, 2009, and 2011 numbers, while a natural regression may occur, we shouldn’t be seeing the type of 2012 season that Timmy is having.   

While I know it's a stretch to make the assertion that Timmy's problems will all of a sudden vanish by just eliminating one pitch that he may throw 9-12 times a game, but I believe Timmy can revert back to form and be a very good pitcher in baseball, even with throwing a 90 MPH fastball.  Many people feel that Timmy can't be an effective pitcher when he throws his fastball at 90 MPH.  But not all pitchers are Justin Verlander and can go 8+ strong and still throw 100 MPH gas in the late innings.  Timmy needs to learn how to adapt and use his arsenal better, i.e. using certain pitches more and some less or not at all.  But Timmy has to change his ways, and it has to start now.  Eliminate the curveball, work on the mechanics, and change the mindset of trying to pitch to contact, and I’m confident that we will see the Timmy of old; The Freak. 

Mr. Armchair Speaking - 
(Stats provided by ESPN.com and BaseballReference.com)

NBA Playoffs Preview –

Yes, I know the NBA Playoffs have already started and that the first round is already behind us, but I don’t start really paying close attention to the NBA playoffs until the second round.  Ever since the NBA changes the first round playoff format and extended series from 5-games to 7-games, the NBA playoffs have just become too long and in this year’s case, boring.  With the exceptions of Memphis – Clippers series and the Lakers – Nuggets series, these first round matchups have been rather boring to me.  To be honest, to date, I may have watched more total minutes of the NHL playoffs than the NBA playoffs.  I know we had an 8-seed beat a 1-seed (Sixers over the Bulls), but the Bulls were without last year’s MVP Derrick Rose and pivotal defensive center Joakim Noah.  I don’t care how well the Bulls played without D-Rose during the regular season; you can’t sustain a loss like that and expect to win in the playoffs.  And losing Joakim Noah was huge, as the Bulls lack front-court depth and they made Spencer Hawes look like the second coming of Moses Malone.  The Heat and Knicks series was a big yawn, as the Carmelo-Lebron matchup fell flat on its face.  Indiana and Orlando lacked interest for me without Dwight Howard, although big-ups to Ryan Anderson, Go Bears.  The Celtics and Hawks series was ok, as I enjoy watching Rondo play.  In the Western Conference, both the Memphis-Clippers and Lakers-Nuggets series were entertaining because they went to game 7 and were highly competitive.  But both San Antonio and OKC made quick work of Utah and Dallas, not to this bloggers surprise but it was to one Texas/Dallas-bias blogger I know (index finger pointing at you, Professor).  All in all, to me, and particularly without a rooting interest, the NBA playoffs don’t get interesting until the second round.   

Eastern Conference –

Philadelphia 76ers v. Boston Celtics –

I think the 76ers will give the Celtics a run and make the games fairly competitive, as I do believe the 76ers are a good team and better than their regular season record would say.  They have a lot of good, young talented players that if they all develop together, they could make the leap to becoming a top 4 team in the Eastern Conference.  I like Jrue Holiday running the point for the 76ers and I even like what Evan Turner brings to the team.  I know he is a terrible 3-point shooter, but the guy averaged 10 points and 6 rebounds per game in the regular season and has expanded that to 12 points and 7 rebounds during the playoffs.  Andre Iguodala and Spencer Hawes aren’t superstars, but they are playing well and are giving them productive minutes.  But the Celtics big-three/three-and-a-half (I guess you still have to include Ray Allen) are playing too well of late to lose this series.  And whoever thinks Kevin Garnett is too old to still matter in the NBA is a dope.  He has been averaging 20-and-10 during the playoffs and playing like a man possessed.  Paul Pierce is being Paul Pierce and with Rajon Rondo liable to get a triple-double at any moment, I can’t see the 76ers over-coming.    

Boston in 5 games.      

Indiana Pacers v. Miami Heat –

The Pacers are doing everything they can to hype themselves up for this series, saying they aren’t the underdogs and their head coach calling out the Heat for flopping.  While all this is probably necessary for them to win, it’s a signal that this team knows it doesn’t stand a chance against the Heat.  The lack of a point guard will ultimately be the detriment of the Pacers, and Danny Granger going 1-10 from the floor like he did in game 1 of this series won’t get it done as well.  The Heat, even without the services of Chris Bosh, should still beat the Pacers comfortably.  Bosh suffered an abdominal strain in Game 1 and as I’m writing this right now, he is out indefinitely and likely out for the series.  If by some miracle the Pacers do end up winning this series, it will be a major upset in my book and mayhem will then ensue.  Pat Riley will race down from his GM suite like he did when the Heat traded for Shaq and didn’t win a title right away, and come to the rescue of coach Erik Spoelstra; or Riley will trade one of the big-three for a bunch of role-players, finally realizing that you can’t win an NBA Title with just 2 superstars, an overrated, overpaid, and soft big man, and a bunch of D-leaguers. 

Miami in 5 games.

Western Conference –

Los Angeles Clippers v. San Antonio Spurs –

For some reason, the more I watch the Clippers, the more I tend to root against them.  Frankly, I’m sick of Blake Griffin and his act.  I’m sick of his flopping; I’m sick of his two-foot hook shots that he calls dunks, and I think he is quickly developing what is known as the KG complex, a guy who is “fake tough”.  But I do think this will actually be a very entertaining series.  You have two of the best point guards in the game right now in Chris Paul and Tony Parker going head-to-head against each other.  Both are lightening quick with the dribble, both can penetrate the lane, and both are great floor generals.  This matchup alone will make this series worth watching.  The Spurs however will win the series.  It won’t be because the Spurs are more talented or athletic than the Clip-show, but they will out-smart the Clippers.  The Spurs are a very well-oiled machine right now and don’t count out the Spurs supporting cast.  They are getting productive minutes from guys like Kawhi Leonard, Danny Green, and Stephen Jackson.  In the playoffs, Kawhi is averaging 7 points, 3 rebounds, Danny Green is averaging 9 points, 4 rebounds, and Stephen Jackson is averaging 10 points, 4 rebounds.    

San Antonio in 6 games.   

Los Angeles Lakers v. Oklahoma City Thunder –

Well, this is the series everyone had hope for since Metta World Peace went Queens Bridge to James Harden dome.  All that is missing is a table leg going through someone’s heart (Jim Rome listeners will get that reference) and we might as well be playing this series at Rucker Park.  There is no doubt that the competitive juices will be flowing, with both teams wanted to come out with something to prove.  I’m sure we are going to see some technical fouls called this series.  While you can’t ever count out the Lakers as long as Kobe still wears a jersey, I like OKC to win this series.  The combination of Ramon Session and Steve Blake will get abused by Russell Westbrook and Metta World will have to go “Malice at the Palace” to stop Kevin Durant.  And quite frankly, like in the Lakers-Nuggets series, I think Pau Gasol and Andrew Bynum will be no-shows.  Serge Ibaka and Kendrick Perkins will completely take away the paint from them, rendering them to being useless and more importantly, heartless.  When you have Kobe coming out and saying that he can’t wait for Metta World Peace to come back from suspension because he is the only player he can count on, you as a team have major issues.   

Oklahoma City in 6 games.

Eastern Conference –

Boston Celtics v. Miami Heat –

This should shape up to be another classic bout between these two heavyweights of the Eastern Conference.  The Heat and the Celtics, and mainly the Celtics v. LeBron, have always been contentious and hard-fought.  Unlike the Pacers series, the Heat will need Chris Bosh to beat the Celtics.  If the Heat want to sit Bosh down for the Pacers series and let him recover from his abdominal strain, they could probably do that and still win.  But they will need Bosh to body up against KG in this series, as he is playing lights-out in the playoffs.  But the Heat will be too much for the Celtics.  For as good as KG and Rajon Rondo are playing, Ray Allen not being Jesus Shuttlesworth will finally catch-up with the Celtics. 

Miami in 7 games.   

Oklahoma City Thunder v. San Antonio Spurs –

I think this will finally be the year that OKC makes the leap and get into the Finals.  If they don’t do it this year, then I’m not sure when they will.  They have James Harden and Serge Ibaka both becoming free agents soon and many think they won’t have the cash necessary to sign both of them.  They could amnesty Kendrick Perkins to free up cash, but that will only give them enough to sign one of them, so I feel there is a small sense of urgency with the Thunder to win a championship with this core.  And while the Spurs are still the old, craft-veteran team that will out-coach and out-smart you to death, I just think OKC’s talent will overcome all those intangibles and they will take this series in a nail-biter. 

OKC in 7 games.    

Mr. Armchair Speaking –

Mr. Armchair’s Draft Recap and a Kentucky Derby Preview –

Monday was a very sad day for me. I felt so dejected and lost. Christmas was officially over. The three-day extravaganza that is the NFL Draft has come to an end with 253 collegiate football athletes have new jobs and employers. It’s probably one of the greatest days in those young men’s lives; receiving that phone call informing them that they have been drafted to play football in the NFL. Their dreams have finally come true. However, the Monday after the draft is always sad for me. No more mocking. No more reading and watching analysis or listening to podcast. Football goes silent for 2 months.  
 

So how did Mr. Armchair’s Mock Draft hold up against the experts? Quiet well, actually. I got 8 out of 32 correct picks, 25%. Note: a corrected pick counts as either a player getting drafted by the team you had them getting drafted by, or a player getting drafted in the numbered pick you had them getting drafted. Here are the stat lines:

Don Banks, SI.com – 10.5/32 (I gave him a .5 for having the Cleveland Browns trading back into the first-round from the second-round and taking QB Brandon Weeden)

MR. ARMCHAIR, Your favorite NFL Draft expert – 8/32

Michael Lombardi, NFL Network – 8/32

Charley Casserly, NFL Network and ex-NFL GM – 8/32

Todd McShay, ESPN and Scouts Inc. – 8/32

Mel Kiper, Jr., ESPN and known NFL Draft expert – 8/32

Charles Davis, NFL Network, FOX NFL Analyst, and Mr. Armchair reader (I have twitter proof) – 7/32

Peter King, SI.com NFL writer and Insider – 6.5/32 (he also had the Cleveland Browns trading up into the first-round from the second-round and taking QB Brandon Weeden)

Mike Mayock, NFL Network – 6/32

You may argue that most of us had the top 4 picks correct, as they were practically pre-determined before the draft started, as well as the Miami Dolphins’ selection of QB Ryan Tannehill. But what separated Mr. Armchair from the rest of the group was DT Dontari Poe getting drafted by the Kansas City at pick #11, CB Dre Kirkpatrick getting drafted by the Cincinnati Bengals (regardless of pick number), and DE Chandler Jones getting drafted by the New England Patriots (also regardless of pick number).

Before I get into my analysis of each teams draft, I wanted to throw-out some numbers for you in case you were unable to catch the footage of the NFL Draft this year.

39.6 – the number in millions of the people who watched the NFL Draft this year. Is there any doubt that the NFL rules the sports world?

8 – the number of first-round, draft-day trades; double from last year’s draft.

16 – the number of picks (half) in the first-round that changed hands prior to the draft (includes last year’s Cleveland Browns/Atlanta Falcons draft-day trade and the Cincinnati Bengals/Oakland Raiders mid-season trade).

3 – the number of hours it took to complete the first-round; the fastest first-round in NFL Draft history.

70 – the pick number (3^rd round) of the first Punter drafted. That honor goes to the Jacksonville Jaguars who took Cal Punter Bryan Anger.

50-3 – the record of Boise St. QB Kellen Moore - the winningest QB in NCAA History - who went undrafted.

2 – the number of draft-day hotties that took the Internet World and Twitter by storm. The co-leaders in the clubhouse were Minnesota Vikings first-round pick LT Matt Kalil’s mother and Miami Dolphins first-round pick QB Ryan Tannehill’s wife.

Analysis Time –  

It is always hard to analyze or “grade” a draft class right after the draft happens. You can’t truly analyze or “grade” a draft for at least 3-4 years after. When JaMarcus Russell was drafted #1 overall in the 2007 NFL Draft, the great draft-guru Mel Kiper raved about Russell’s “Elway-like” talent and labeled him as a “catch miss” prospect. The so-called experts are often times wrong as they are right about prospect outlooks. But it’s a piece that reader’s and football enthusiast enjoy reading, and therefore they are charged with the duty of judging a draft class upon first glance. So I figure I might as well partake.

Cincinnati Bengals – A

Analysis: I thought Cincinnati had the best draft. I can see every draft pick being a solid contributor this upcoming season, and this was a playoff team last season. Their top 2 needs were CB and OG, and with their two first-round picks, they drafted CB Dre Kirkpatrick and OG Kevin Zeitler. Both will be starters going into the season. They also managed to steal DT Devon Still in the middle of the second-round, who some had graded as a late first-round talent. And don’t sleep on late-round pick WR Marvin Jones (Go Cal Bears), S George Iloka, and RB Dan Herron. This was a great draft for the Bengals.

Pittsburgh Steelers – A

Analysis: I thought Pittsburgh also had a great draft. Everyone knew the Steelers were targeting the O-line, either at OG or OT. However, no one was confident that the Steelers would be able to address those needs at #24 without having to reach for a player. Well, not only did they not reach for a player, they had arguably the best OG in the draft fall to them. OG David DeCastro was rated as a top 10 prospect and how he fell to #24 in beyond my grasp. They also got OT Mike Adams – many feel he would have been a first-round pick if not for off-field issues - in the second-round.

Minnesota Vikings – A-

Analysis: Great chess game by the Vikings. Minnesota was able to convince the Browns that they were fielding offers for the #3 pick with teams looking to trade up for RB Trent Richardson. It was enough to spook the Browns into trading their #4 overall pick along with 3 additional draft picks to the Vikings for their #3 overall. The Vikings were still able to get their guy in LT Matt Kalil and used one of those acquired picks to move back into the first-round a grab S Harrison Smith. I also like late-round picks CB Josh Robinson - winner of the fastest 40-yard dash time at the Combine - and WR Jarius Wright.

Philadelphia Eagles – A-

Analysis: DT was a top need for them coming into the draft. DT Fletcher Cox was the top DT in the draft and they traded up to get him at #12, not costing them all that much in the process. And a bite of a homer analysis here, but ILB Mychal Kendrick from Cal was a great get. I’ve seen almost every game he’s played in and the dude is beastly. DE Vinny Curry will also add to the pass-rush Philly hopes to improve. QB Nick Flores looks to be the new QB-in-waiting for when Mike Vick gets hurts, and we know he will get hurt at some point during the season. CB Brandon Boykins is also underrated.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers – A-

Analysis: They traded out of the #5 spot and a chance to either draft CB Morris Claiborne or WR Justin Blackmon, and moved back to #7 and grabbed SS Mark Barron. You can argue whether CB or SS was a bigger need, but regardless Tampa Bay needed secondary help. Why not trade down and get an extra pick? They ended up using the pick (4^th round pick from Jacksonville) to move back into the first-round and draft RB Doug Martin, fulfilling another need. I also had a first-round grade for LB Lavonte David, who they got in the second-round. They helped themselves out tremendously.
  

Buffalo Bills – B+

Analysis: I liked the Bills draft more than most people. While CB wasn’t a major need, Stephon Gilmore is a major talent and in a division where you play the Patriots twice a year, you need all the talented DB’s you can get. Gilmore will be an immediate starter at CB and with the Bills having signed DE/OLB Mario Williams and DE Mike Anderson to improve their pass-rush; the Bills defense is now greatly improved. The one major need the Bills did have was at OT, and they were able to address it in the second-round with OT/OG Cordy Glenn. He’s another first-round talent who fell to the second-round.

Green Bay Packers – B+

Analysis: The Packers finished last season with the league’s worst defense, ranked #32. How did they address that need? They used their first 6 picks on defensive players. I like the selection of DE/OLB Nick Perry to play opposition Clay Matthews. Perry has a good chance to be that pass-rush specialize and get after the QB. I also like the selection of DT Jerel Worthy. I had him being drafted in the late-first, so to get Worthy in the mid-second was a steal in my opinion. And CB Casey Hampton will get plenty of action as their nickel CB and could be the heir apparent to Charles Woodson.

Indianapolis Colts – B+

Analysis: It was nearly impossible to screw up this year’s first overall pick, so that alone gives them a B grade. But the fact that they didn’t only get the #1 overall rated talent in the draft in QB Andrew Luck, but the Colts were able to snag his favorite target in college and #1 overall rated TE in Coby Fleener. When Fleener went undrafted in the first-round, picking Fleener with the second pick in the second-round was about as much of a lock as them taking Luck with the first pick. I question drafting TE Dwayne Allen with the first pick of the third-round, but I understand why they did it.

San Diego Chargers – B+

Analysis: Anytime you can get a highly-rated talent at a low-level pick, you will always get a good grade in my book. I had DE/OLB Melvin Ingram getting drafted at #7. I understand that there were concerns about what position he would best fit at, but for him to fall to #18 and have players like LB Bruce Irvin and DE Quinton Coples get drafted ahead of him is mind-boggling. The Chargers getting Ingram at #18 is great value. They had major needs along the D-Line and improving the pass-rush and Ingram should aid in solving those problems. DT Kendall Reyes was also good value in the second-round. 

Arizona Cardinals – B

Analysis: I understand why the Cardinals took WR Michael Floyd at #13. He was the second best WR on the board, some having him rated higher than Justin Blackmon. When a talent like that falls to you, it’s hard to pass on despite your pressing needs. I’m not sure if I would have passed on OT Riley Reiff here, as the Cardinals pass-blocking was terrible last season. Floyd will differently help the offense, immediately starting opposite Larry Fitzgerald. The Cards did draft 3 different OT, hoping one of them sticks. My money is on OT Bobby Massie, a second-round rated talent who fell to the fourth-round. 

Baltimore Ravens – B

Analysis: Anytime you can move out of the first-round, acquire an extra pick, and still get your guy who is a first-round talent, who had a good draft. The Ravens were able to move out of the first-round and still draft OLB Courtney Upshaw in the early second-round. I had Upshaw rated as a mid-first talent. The Ravens also filled a need on the O-line by drafting OT/OG Kelechi Osemele, who was a rising prospect coming into the draft. RB Bernard Pierce should see plenty of playing time with Ricky Williams retiring, and late-round picks CB Asa Jackson and WR Tommy Streeter should contribute.

Carolina Panthers – B

Analysis: The Panthers needed help in the middle of their defense, mainly at DT. While DT Fletcher Cox, Dontari Poe, and Michael Brockers were all available, the Panthers selected ILB Luke Kuechly instead. Kuechly is very talented but I would have rather gone after Fletcher Cox at #9 and then address the LB position in the second-round with either ILB Mychal Kendricks or LB Lavonte David. They could have even gone with CB Stephon Gilmore at #9 and then address DT in the second with Kendall Reyes, Jerel Worthy, or even Devon Still. I just didn’t see LB as a major need for the Panthers, but still a good draft.

New England Patriots – B

Analysis: The Patriots have always been known as a team who trades back in the draft in order to stockpile future draft picks, hoarding them in their 401K fund. But this year, the Patriots did something in the draft that no one expected them to do. They actually traded up in the draft. And not only did they do it once, they did it twice! They finally cashed in on those draft picks and got two players who will come in and have an immediate impact on their defense. DE Chandler Jones and LB Dont’a Hightower are two really good football players with excellent football skills and motors. 

San Francisco 49ers – B

Analysis: Despite being 13-3 and winning the NFC West division, their offense at times was horrible and slow. They had no speed or speed threat on the offensive side of the ball. Enter first-round pick WR AJ Jenkins and second-round pick RB LeMichael James. Jenkins ran the 8^th fastest 40-yard dash time at the combine at 4.37, and we’ve all seen what James can do in the open field. And I love what the 49ers did trading wise in the middle rounds. They acquired 3 additional picks for next season, giving them a total of 13 draft picks when you fact in free agent compensatory picks. The future is bright, my friends. 

Dallas Cowboys – B-

Analysis: I love what the Cowboys did with their first-round pick. The Cowboys traded up and got one of the top 5 elite prospects in the draft, CB Morris Claiborne. In a division where you have to face QB’s Eli Manning, Michael Vick, and now Robert Griffin III, getting an elite CB was a must. Claiborne, Carr, and Jenkins make up a good group of CB’s. I wasn’t too thrilled with their third-round selection, however. I would have liked for them to have taken C Philip Blake, who was the second-rated C in the draft. The QB-C exchange was a problem at time for the Cowboys last season. 

Detroit Lions – B-

Analysis: The Lions were another team that benefitted from a highly-rated prospect falling to them. I thought for sure OT Riley Reiff wouldn’t be passed on by the Arizona Cardinals, but they too had a prospect fall to them and they went in a different direction. The Lions have the oldest O-Line in the league and Reiff will be a welcomed addition. This allows OT Jeff Backus to move inside to the interior as he finishes up his career. Detroit took a big swing in the second-round by drafting WR Ryan Broyles. He is coming off a major knee injury and at that time, I feel the Lions had other needs to address. 

Jacksonville Jaguars – B-

Analysis: The Jaguars did a good job at addressing needs with their top two picks. They moved up to #5 and were able to get WR Justin Blackmon, arguably the best WR in the draft. I like this move because if you are ever going to find out if QB Blaine Gabbert can make it in the NFL; he needs a target to throw it. Jacksonville’s WR were some of the worst in the league last season. Now with Blackmon and free agent signee Laurent Robinson, Gabbert has no excuses. I also like the selection of DE Andre Branch in the second. He could have gone in the late-first and no one would have judged.

HOMER ANALYSIS: the Jaguars drafting P Bryan Anger in the third-round was awesome!!! As a Cal football season ticket holder, I’ve watched almost every game he played and the dude can kick it. One of my favorite Bears. Excellent draft pick!!! 

Kansas City Chiefs – B-

Analysis: I’m higher on DT Dontari Poe than most people. People look at his stats at Memphis and see that he’s only had 5 sacks in his college career; in no way making him worthy of being drafted at the #11. But DT/NT stats are misleading to begin with, as getting sacks isn’t there main job. There job is to clog the middle and shield blockers for the linebackers so they can get to the RB easier. With the big, wide frame of Poe, there is no doubt he is capable of doing that. He will team up nicely with DE’s Glenn Dorsey and Tyson Jackson. OG/OT Jeff Allen and OT Donald Stephenson add good depth to the O-line. 

New York Giants – B-

Analysis: They didn’t get great value in the first-round with RB David Wilson, but they got excellent value in the second and third rounds with WR Reuben Randle and CB Jayron Hosley. Wilson is a good RB, but they probably could have traded back about 5-10 spots, acquired extra picks, and still have gotten him in the second-round. I think Tampa Bay trading back up into the first-round and selecting RB Doug Martin (who the Giants really wanted), scared the Giants into drafting Wilson. And getting Randle with the last pick in the second-round was maybe the best value pick of the draft.

Miami Dolphins – C+

Analysis: Is QB Ryan Tannehill the answer to the everlasting Dolphins QB issue? For their sake, I sure hope so. The Dolphins drafted Tannehill to be their savior with the #8 pick. If there is ever a situation that Tannehill can jump into and have any hope so making it, it’s the Dolphins. They hired Green Bay OC Joe Philbin to be their new head coach. Additionally, the Dolphins hired Tannehill’s college coach, Mike Sherman, to be their OC. I liked them drafted OT Jonathan Martin in the second-round and TE Michael Egnew in the third. Fourth-rounder RB Lamar Miller was good value as well.

St. Louis Rams – C+

Analysis: Let me ask, what would have been the better draft class: DT Michael Brocker, WR Brian Quick, CB Janoris Jenkins, and RB Isaiah Peah; or CB Morris Claiborne, WR Stephen Hill, and OT/OG Cordy Glenn? The latter is an A draft class. The former is a C+ draft class. I would have taken CB Morris Claiborne and stayed with two second-rounders, than moving back to #14 and have three seconds. In the second round, taking WR Brian Quick with the first pick was a miss. WR Stephen Hill, DE Courtney Upshaw, TE Coby Fleener, DT Jerel Worthy, and OT/OG Cordy Glenn were better options. 

Washington Redskins – C+

Analysis: The only reason I’m giving the Redskins a C+ is because I love the move of trading up and getting QB Robert Griffin III. Otherwise, I’m not sure what they’re doing here. Along with QB, S and OT were major needs, so I’m puzzled with them drafting OG Josh LeRibeus in the third-round. With S Brandon Taylor and OT Donald Stephenson available in the third-round, I can’t see how they pass on those two. Also, why are they drafting QB Kirk Cousins in the fourth-round? With not having a first-round pick in the next two upcoming drafts, the Redskins can’t afford wasting picks for luxury.

Chicago Bears – C

Analysis: I know DE/OLB Shea McClellin was a late-rising prospect, but taking him at #19 was a bit of a reach. Addressing the O-line was a much bigger need and with OT Riley Reiff sitting there, he would have been the better draft pick for the Bears. The Bears will only go as far as QB Jay Culter will take them and they need to keep him upright. Reiff would have gone a long way to doing that, but instead he goes to your division rival. I’m also not a fan of what they did in the second-round either. WR Alshon Jeffery does fill a need, but with OT Mike Adams and Kelechi Osemele were there to be picked.

Cleveland Browns – C

Analysis: I’m not knocking the Browns here for making the trade with the Viking and giving up 3 picks to move up one spot and draft RB Trent Richardson. If there is a guy that you want and you feel there is a chance that he may not last to your pick, then go get him. The Browns had a surplus of draft picks, so they could afford to pull that move. I’m knocking the Browns for what they did after the Richardson pick, namely the drafting of QB Brandon Weeden with their second first-round pick. I thought it was a wasted pick. How much better is QB Brandon Weeden than Colt McCoy? I guess we’ll find out.

Houston Texans – C

Analysis: I felt drafting DE Whitney Mercilus was an overreaction and knee-jerk solution to the lost of DE Mario Williams. The Texans played most of last year without him, and they were still a dominating defense. With TE Coby Fleener and WR Stephen Hill still available, either one should have been their pick. I’m also not too thrilled with their second pick, third-round selection WR DeVier Posey. I feel they should have stayed in the second-round instead of trading out and drafted WR Reuben Randle, if Mercilus was truly the guy you had to have in the first.

Atlanta Falcons – C-

Analysis: The Falcons didn’t have a first-round pick, as that pick went to the Cleveland Browns in the trade made last draft season. With their second-round pick, the Falcons selected C Peter Konz, who was rated the top C in the draft. However, C wasn’t a need for the Falcons. The Falcons gave up a ton of sacks last season, but it was from the tackle positions on the O-line, not the interior. OT’s Mike Adams and Kelechi Osemele went after Konz and I feel either would have made a bigger impact this season than Konz. It might be a couple years before we hear about Konz making an impact.

Denver Broncos – C-

Analysis: I don’t understand what the Broncos were doing. I’m ok with them trading out of the first-round, as DT was their #1 priority and there were plenty of DT’s available early in the second. They went with DT Derek Wolfe and I felt Kendall Reyes, Jerel Worthy, and Devon Still, who all went after Wolfe, were better options. With their second second-round pick, they went with QB Brock Osweiler. WHAT?! REALLY? First, Osweiler stinks. Secondly, didn’t you just spend $96 million on a HOF QB? I’ll make this prediction: Tim Tebow will win more games in the NFL than Brock Osweiler.
     

New York Jets – C-

Analysis: They get a low grade not because they didn’t address any needs, but it’s who they addressed them with. How the Jets could pass on a player like DE/OLB Melvin Ingram, a player who would have fit their defensive scheme perfectly, for a player like DE Quinton Coples is beyond me. The Jets didn’t need a DE pass-rusher; but they needed an OLB type pass rusher. That player was Ingram. Instead they took Coples with their first-round pick. I like the move to go up in the second-round and get WR Stephen Hill, but he is still raw and I’m not sure if WR Santonio Holmes is the perfect mentor for him.

Tennessee Titans – C-

Analysis: If there is one person who should be the most disgruntled about this draft, it’s RB Chris Johnson. The Titans took WR Kendall Wright in the first-round and I understand the need to provide QB Jake Locker with weapons to throw too; but I felt the O-line was a much bigger need. The Titans last season made Chris Johnson the highest paid RB in NFL history, but with a bad O-line last season, CJ2k quickly became CJ1K. With OG David DeCastro or even OT Riley Reiff, they could have vastly improved their O-line and then target a WR in the second-round, with the second-tier WR’s falling.
 

New Orleans Saints – D+

Analysis: How do you grade a draft class that consists only of 5 players, with the earliest selection coming in the late third? The Saints traded away their first-round selection last season to the Patriots to draft RB Mark Ingram. Then they lost their second-round selection as punishment for Bountygate. And to top it off, they used their first draft pick, #90 overall, on a player who played in the Canadian Football league. The only reason I gave them a + was because I think WR Nick Toon can play in the NFL and was a good get in the fourth-round. It’s a good thing the Saints don’t need too much help through the draft.

Oakland Raiders – D+

Analysis: See my analysis of the Saints, and it’s the same for the Raiders, except the Raiders’ draft class consists of 6 players. The Raiders traded away their first-rounder to the Bengals in the Carson Palmer trade, and they traded their second-round pick to the Patriots in another trade. Thank God for the NFL free agent compensatory pick progress for lost free agents or otherwise I don’t think the Raiders would have any draft picks this year. And like the Saints, the Raiders used their first-draft pick, #95 overall and last in the third-round, on OG Tony Bergstrom. Enough said.

Seattle Seahawks – D

Analysis: To their credit, the Seattle Seahawks draft guys who they want, who they value, and they will draft them with whatever pick they have. They introduced this strategy last year when they drafted OG James Carpenter in the first-round, and they proved it this year by drafted OLB Bruce Irvin. Many saw Irvin as a mid to late second-round pick. No one imagined him going in the mid first-round. But like I said, they have a scheme, they have a value system, and they will draft players accordingly. Drafting QB Russell Wilson in the third was also strange; but hey, it’s their team. 

Really Quick Kentucky Derby Preview –  

Christmas comes around again, as the 138^th Kentucky Derby happens this weekend. 21 horses make up the field for the Run for the Roses and the motto holds true, it is the greatest 2 minutes in sports.

I enjoy the sport of horse racing. The 4 people who read my blog will remember that I wrote a post about my enjoyment for horse racing and how I’m sadden that it’s now labeled as a dying sport. But if there is one race that brings fans and patrons together, it’s the derby.

When picking my horses, I take into account two major factors: the jockey and the trainer. I also look at recent race times on comparable track lengths and turf, and then judge according. But like any other sport, anything can happen. For the derby, I like Union Rags. For the tri-fecta, I’ll take Union Rags with Dullahan and Take Charge Indy.  

Mr. Armchair Speaking -