Mr. Armchair’s 2013 NFL Preview –

So I’m going to keep this intro short, as I know you all are eagerly anticipating the 2013 NFL Preview.  I worked to get this out a little earlier than normal, as I’m about to take a week hiatus from the sports world (well, as much as I can – still might find time to take in a game or two of baseball and catch NFL Opening Night) as I will be in beautiful, scenic Maui, Hawaii.  By the way, if you are into college football, my preview can be found here College Football Preview.  If you are into baseball, I baseball content can be found on www.baseballhotcorner.com, under Marc Keller.

In looking at the NFL as a whole this season, I found that one thing was very clear: the NFC is loaded with really, really good teams.  Obviously the cream will rise to the top, as teams like the Giants, Falcons, Seahawks, Saints, Packers, and 49ers will still be really good.  But they’ll have to work to get there, as I think even some of the middle-tier teams like the Panthers, Vikings, Redskins, Bears, Bucs, and Rams will be really competitive and make it tough on the top tier teams. 

The AFC on the other hand, there is a clear divide amongst the top and the bottom teams.  The teams that are good, like the Texans, Patriots, Broncos, Bengals, are good.  The teams that are bad, like the Jets, Jaguars, Chargers, Titans, Bills, and Raiders, are really, really bad.  I think the top half of the 2014 NFL Draft will be clearly dominated by AFC teams.   

So with that, I’ll keep the opening paragraph short since this is a lengthy post and I’ll get you to Mr. Armchair’s 2013 NFL Preview. 

NFC East –

New York Giants – 10-6 (Playoff – Division Winner)

Analysis:  It’s not always the prettiest, but Eli Manning wins you ball games; and I can’t see the Giants not making the playoffs two years in a row.  I like the way their offense sets up now with RB David Wilson finally getting the bulk of the carries in the background.  He is a very dynamic runner who if he can get to the edge, he can hit another gear and take off on you.  Their defense will need to improve from last year’s performance in order for the Giants to make the playoffs.  I think they will.   

Washington Redskins – 9-7

Analysis:  I hate picking teams where I’m relying too much on their key players being healthy.  I like Robert Griffin III as a player and think he’ll remain healthy for the majority of the season, but if he has to miss even a couple games because of injuries, that could really throw a wrench into their playoff picture, especially in a tough NFC East division and an even tougher non-divisional schedule.  Their non-divisional schedule includes games against the Packers, Lions, Bears, Broncos, Vikings, 49ers, Chiefs, and Falcons.        

Dallas Cowboys – 8-8

Analysis:  This is a generous 8-8 record I have here for the Cowboys.  It wouldn’t surprise me one bit if they collapsed and went 6-10 or 5-11 this season.  Their defense will be good and Dez Bryant is a star in the making at WR, but for some reason they keep putting their faith in the arm of QB Tony Romo.  Why, I don’t know.  The guy can’t win big football games.  And furthermore, their O-line is terrible.  They can surround Romo with all the weapons he wants, but if he can’t stay upright, what’s the use. 

Philadelphia Eagles – 6-10

Analysis:  After a horrendous 4-12 record last season, the Eagles brought in a new shine toy in the form of a new offense.  New Head Coach Chip Kelly comes over from Oregon and he’s bringing with him his high-speed offense.  All things considered (bad record last season, new head coach, WR Jeremy Maclin got for the season, question marks at QB), a 6-10 record would be a welcomed sight for Philly fans.  Of course, they would admit it, and I am sure anything less than a playoff appearance is a disappointing season, with calling for Kelly to be fired.           

 

NFC North –

Green Bay Packers – 12-4 (Playoff – Division Winner)

Analysis:  The Packers are still one of the most prolific offenses in the NFL and Aaron Rodgers is arguably the best QB in all of football.  Their division may have gotten a little tougher in terms of competition, but they should still be able to rule over them.  The challenge for the Packers will be how they overcome the injuries they sustained during this preseason.  They lose LT Bryan Bulaga, Rodgers’ blind slide protector, for the year, and WR Jordy Nelson is questionable to start the season.  Still, the Packers are too talented not to run away with this division.

         

Chicago Bears – 8-8

Analysis:  All reports out of Bears camp is new Head Coach Marc Trestman’s the real deal.  The offensive guru was hired out of the Canadian Football League to take over for old Head Coach Lovie Smith.  Under Smith, the defense was always stellar, but the offense unimaginative.  The hope is that Trestman can come in and bring some creativity to an offense that features such weapons as QB Jay Cutler, WR Brandon Marshall, and RB Matt Forte, yet still keep the defense intact.  Problem is how do you do that when it lost its heart and soul, ILB Brian Urlacher?   

Detroit Lions – 7-9

Analysis:  This is a make or break year for Head Coach Jim Schwartz.  After finishing last season 4-12, he has to produce a good season in order for him to keep his job.  The players will fight hard for him, but I think in the end, a 7-9 record just won’t save him.  The offense will be much improved with the addition of RB Reggie Bush, although it wasn’t really that bad to begin with.  Everyone criticized QB Matthew Stafford’s low TD numbers from last season (20), but 8 times WR Calvin Johnson was tackled inside the 5-yard line, and 5 times inside the 1.         

Minnesota Vikings – 7-9

Analysis:  The Vikings shocked the football world, finishing last season with a 10-6 record and making the playoffs, all on the knee of RB Adrian Peterson.  Peterson is a true freak of nature, coming back less than a year removed from having ACL knee surgery, lead the NFL in rushing yards, and win the NFL MVP Award.  He’ll likely regress a bit this season, which puts the responsibility to make up that ground in the hands of QB Christian Ponder.  Again, QB Christian Ponder.  So with that regression, I think we’ll see a regression in wins this season.           

NFC South –

New Orleans Saints – 12-4 (Playoff – Division Winner)

Analysis:  Man what a difference a head coach makes.  Head Coach Sean Payton is back from servicing his yearlong suspension due to Bountygate, and he will pick up right where he left off.  The offense will be stellar again, with QB Drew Brees feeling very comfortable and right at home.  Him and Payton can speak to each other in their little own language, using their euphoniums and slang.  It’s quite cute actually.  The defense will surely be a mess, but all new Defensive Coordinator Rex Ryan will ask them to do is get one stop on defense.               

Atlanta Falcons – 11-5 (Playoff – Wild Card)

Analysis:  The band is back together again, and ready to make another run at the Super Bowl.  They were even smart enough to add a lead guitarist to the group in the form of RB Steven Jackson.  Jackson is a huge upgrade over last season’s RB Michael Turner.  Jackson is much quicker and is a better pass-catcher out of the backfield, an element of offense the Falcons weren’t able to utilize with Turner.  And for bonus, they were able to talk the old drummer, TE Tony Gonzalez, to come back for one more tour.  Ok, that’s it for the band references.       

Carolina Panthers – 9-7

Analysis:  I really like the Panthers.  I really want to pick them to make the playoffs, and if they were in any division in the AFC, I would have them in no questions asked.  Their defense is very good, led by NFC Defensive ROY ILB Luke Kuechly and the addition of DT Star Lotulelei, who many thought would be the #1 in this past NLF Draft until a heart condition scared off teams.  But I look at their offense, and while I think QB Cam Newton is special, he'll still unproven, and the weapons around him, as well as his Head Coach Ron Rivera, are inferior.      

Tampa Bay Buccaneers – 7-9

Analysis:  The Bucs beefed up their defense with the additions of CB Darrell Revis and FS Dashon Goldson.  But this team will only go as far as their QB, Josh Freeman, will take them.  And unfortunately, I don't think it's as far as Bucs fans will hope.  He has no shortage of weapons around him however to succeed, as they find their RB for the next 10 seasons in Doug Martin.  Plus, having to play the Saints twice, Falcons twice, Panthers twice, 49ers, Seahawks, and Patriots doesn't exactly make for an easy road to the playoffs.              

NFC West –

San Francisco 49ers – 13-3 (Playoff – Division Winner)

Analysis:  WARNING!!!  WARNING!!! HOMER ANALYSIS COMING!!! HOMER ANALYSIS COMING!!!  You are going to think I'm crazy, but I actually feel like I'm short-changing the 49ers here by picking them to ONLY have a record of 13-3.  This team is going to be awesome!  I really had to search hard for potential losses on their schedule in conjunction with the caliber of team I think the 49ers are.  QB Colin Kaepernick will light up the NFL now that he is finally coming into the season as the starter and getting starters reps.  CANT......WAIT!       

Seattle Seahawks – 12-4 (Playoff – Wild Card)

Analysis:  Not going to lie to you, I hate Seattle.  This is a residual feeling I have from two incidents: one being last December when I went up to Seattle for the Seahawks / 49ers games and their stupid, annoying fans thinking they're something, and two being Chris Hansen, Steve Ballmer, the Norstrom Family, and the city of Seattle trying to steal my Sacramento Kings away from my city.  Thankfully, the city of Seattle lost in their bid of thievery for the Kings, and I hope the Seahawks find themselves in the same fate.  Rant over; team is good; that is all.      

St. Louis Rams – 8-8

Analysis:  Is this finally going to be the year that QB Sam Bradford starts living up to the hype and #1 pick status?  I actually think it is; and I actually think the Rams will be good, pretty, pretty good.  I like what they have on offense at WR with rookie Tavon Austin and second year players Chris Givens and Brian Quick.  And like any Head Coach Jeff Fisher team, you know the defense will be good as well.  Remember, the Rams still have all those draft picks they're getting from the Redskins in the RG3 trade, so they are going to be here to stay.     

Arizona Cardinals – 4-12

Analysis:  A lot of Cardinals fans want to blame the stink of last season solely on the play of the QB, but I think it goes beyond that, and nothing was solved this offseason.  Their O-line is still dreadful, the RB position is still unsettled, and I still have questions about the QB situation.  Rookie OG Jonathan Cooper is a start to fixing the O-line, but he can't play the other 4 positions all at once, RB Rashard Mendenhall coming over from the Steelers is on his last leg, and QB Carson Palmer is well...Carson Palmer.           

AFC East –

New England – 10-6 (Playoff – Division Winner)

Analysis:  Ok, I know QB Tom Brady is Tom Brady and Head Coach Bill Bellichick is Bill Bellichick, but I think the Patriots will have somewhat of a down season.  Yeah they’ll go 10-6 and make the playoffs, but it’s because they play in a weak division where you get to play the Dolphins, Bills, and Jets each twice.  Throw in winnable games against the Bucs, Steelers, Panthers, Browns, and Ravens, and I think you can find 10 wins in their schedule because, Brady is still Brady and Bellichick is still Bellichick.  But let’s be honest, I’m just rooting for Tebow.         

Buffalo Bills – 5-11

Analysis:  I’ve learned my lesson last season when I picked the Bills to finish with a winning record and make the playoffs.  Not making that same mistake this time.  For as much as I like RB C.J Spiller, they are way too young to make a run at it this year.  I like the potential they have though in LT Cordy Glenn, WR T.J. Graham, DT Marcell Dareus, CB Stephon Gilmore, and even QB E.J. Manuel.  I have a feel that in about 2-3 years, we’ll be having the same conversation we were last season about the Bill being a potential playoff team.      

Miami Dolphins – 5-11

Analysis:  This is a “pick-to-click” team for people this year, but not for me.  I think if everything goes right for them, they can put together a good season.  I’m just not a believer in QB Ryan Tannehill yet.  I think he needs another season under center before I can buy into him being a playoff caliber QB in the NFL.  But at least you can’t fault the Dolphins for trying.  They went out this offseason and spent big money on free agent WR Mike Wallace in order to move along the maturation progress of Tannehill.  Problem is, I don’t think Wallace helps all that much.         

New York Jets – 3-13

Analysis:  The Jets are a complete mess, sideshow, freak show, circus, whatever adjective you want to use to describe the type of team they are going to be this season.  And most of their drama is going to stem from two places: Head Coach Rex Ryan, and QB Mark Sanchez.  I think Ryan is fired by week 11 of the NFL season and rookie QB Geno Smith will displace Sanchez by week 5 of the season.  And there is a 3-1 odds bet that by week 3 of the season, we’ll see another repeat of the “butt fumble”.       

AFC North –

Cincinnati Bengals – 11-5 (Playoff – Division Winner)

Analysis:  Say what you may, but I’ve been watching HBO’s Hard Knock this season, and I’ve become a believer in the Bengals.  There is a whole lot to like about them.  They were already a playoff team last season, so it’s not like I’m making a bold call here.  But my bold call is that I think they take that next step and win a playoff game or two.  I think the combo of QB Andy Dalton and WR A.J. Green will be that much better, I like the addition of rookie RB Giovani Bernard into the backfield mix, and rookie TE Tyler Eifert is another goal-line option.

Pittsburgh Steelers – 9-7

Analysis:  As much as I agree that there is probably no other coach in the NFL that gets more out of his players than Steelers Head Coach Mike Tomlin, I don’t think this is the year he gets THAT much out of them.  I worry about how effect QB Ben Rothlishberger will be without WR Mike Wallace (left via free agency), and rookie RB Le’Von Bell (injury).  Their only saving grace could be that their schedule is relatively soft, with games against the Titans, Bears, Vikings, Jets, Raiders, Bills, Lions, Dolphins, and division rivals, Browns and Ravens.       

Cleveland Browns – 7-9

Analysis:  If the Panthers are my NFC team I like, the Browns are my AFC team.  I think the Browns can come up and bite teams if they aren’t playing much attention to them.  I know a lot is riding on the arm of QB Brandon Weeden, and it’s a lot to ask of him to carry the Browns to at least 7 wins and possibly beyond.  But there is a lot to like about the Browns.  Their defense is good, the O-line is better than average, led by a couple of Cal Bears Alex Mack and Mitchell Schwarts, and they can really open up some holes for RB Trent Richardson.       

Baltimore Ravens – 6-10

Analysis:  So everyone been pooping on QB Joe Flacco for years, saying he’s overrated and a hack QB, and then all of a sudden he has a great three-game stretch, lucks into a Super Bowl victory (yeah, I just said that), and now is the greatest, and highest paid, QB in the NFL?  Please!  Additionally, they lost their heart-and-soul in ILB Ray Lewis, and to a lesser extent, FS Ed Reed.  They also traded away WR Anquan Boldin (Flacco’s security blanket), lost TE Dennis Pitta to a season-ending injury, and let other pieces of their defense leave via free agency.    

AFC South –

Indianapolis Colts – 11-5 (Playoff – Division Winner)

Analysis:  For being such a Cal Football homer, I really like what QB Andrew Luck brings to the table.  I still believe that he will be the greatest college QB of my generation, like John Elway was to the generation before me.  But it’s not just Luck for my reasoning of having the Colts back in the playoffs and as division winners over the Texans.  I think the O-line is much better this season with the addition of RT Gosder Cherilus, and the defense is much improved with the additions of DL Ricky Jean Francois, LB Erik Walden, DB’s Greg Toler and LaRon Landry.        

Houston Texans – 10-6 (Playoff – Wild Card)

Analysis:  I know I’m in the minority by not having the Texans with at least 11 wins and winning the division.  But their schedule is relatively tough, having to play the 49ers, Seahawks, Rams, Chiefs, Broncos, Patriots, Ravens, plus the Colts twice.  And frankly, I don’t think QB Matt Schaub will ever take them where they want to god; and with every year they wait for him, that’s other year off the NFL life span of WR Andre Johnson and RB Arian Foster.  If Schaub and Head Coach Gary Kubiak can’t get it done, I expect changes to be made next offseaon.

Tennessee Titans – 5-11

Analysis:  I’m not sure, but is the ABP still out for a RB by the name of Chris Johnson, also known as or may go by the alias of CJ2K?  I’m just checking.  Can someone report back to me if they find him?  Ok, I kid.  But in today’s NFL, 1200 yards and 6 TD’s is hardly a great season, especially with as much hype and smack talk that follows Johnson.  The O-line will be improved somewhat with rookie OG Chance Warmack, so that may boost Johnson’s stat line.  But I don’t think Johnson will ever live down his CJ2K comment.            

Jacksonville Jaguars – 3-13

Analysis:  You can generally tie a team’s success around the play of their QB, and playing QB this year for the Jaguars will either be Blaine Gabbert or Chad Henne.  I think that says it all.  New Head Coach Gus Bradley really has a challenge on his hands trying to turn this team around.  Not only are the Jaguars in full rebuild mode, but also their future in Jacksonville is also up in the air as it’s becoming more and more likely we will see an NFL team back in Los Angeles in the near future.  At least they’ll have the NFL Red Zone Channel playing on their big screen scoreboard. 

AFC West –

Denver Broncos – 13-3 (Playoff – Division Winner)

Analysis:  It seems like the rich get richer when it comes to the Broncos.  We all know about the big free agent addition of WR Wes Welker from the Patriots, but they also needed other key pieces such as CB Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie and also drafting two potential starters in DT Sylvester Williams and RB Montee Ball.  Even despite the loss of OLB Von Miller for the first 6 games, all 6 are very winnable without him.  They play the Ravens, Giants, Raiders, Eagles, Cowboys, and Jaguars.  They can very easily go 6-0 or 5-1 during that stretch.         

Kansas City Chiefs – 10-6 (Playoff – Wild Card)

Analysis:  How can a team with the worst record in the NFL last season turn it around and make the playoffs so quickly?  Well, get yourself the #1 draft pick, which they did and used it wisely on OT Eric Fisher.  Get yourself a proven, winning head coach, which they did in Andy Reid.  And go out and get yourself a proven, winning QB, which they did in Alex Smith.  Better blocking will lead to more time to pass and more holes to run through, couple that with better play-calling, and it’s a recipe for scoring more points, which leads to more wins.  It’s that simple.

San Diego Chargers – 3-13

Analysis:  I think this season spells the end of the QB Phillip Rivers era in San Diego.  For the last couple of seasons now we have witness an overall decline in the play of the Chargers, starting with Rivers, moving on down to RB Ryan Matthews, no WR to throw the ball too, Antonio Gates is about a year or two away from calling it quits, and the defense is poorest at best.  After this season, the Chargers will be is full-blown rebuild mode and if the draft pick is high enough, which it should be, they can start by maybe drafting a franchise QB in next year’s draft. 

Oakland Raiders – 2-14

Analysis:  I can’t even begin to describe to you how bad the Raiders are going to be this season.  I have the Raiders going 2-14, and I think I’m being generous with this prediction.  If they don’t win their week 2 game against the Jaguars, their week 14 matchup against the Jets in NY, or one of the two games against the Chargers, they could quiet possibly challenge the Lions record of finishing a season 0-16.  There is a saying, “Rome wasn’t built in a day.”  I think right now Raiders fans will settle for Modesto, CA (no offense to those from Modesto, CA).    

Awards

MVP – Peyton Manning, QB Denver Broncos

Offensive Player of the Year – Colin Kaepernick, QB San Francisco 49ers

Defensive Player of the Year – Jerod Mayo, LB New England Patriots

Offensive Rookie of the Year – Eddie Lacy, RB Green Bay Packers

Defensive Rookie of the Year – Star Lotulelei, DT Carolina Panthers

Head Coach of the Year – Andy Reid, Kansas City Chiefs

Playoff Teams

NFC – Giants, Packers, Saints, Falcons (wild card), 49ers, Seahawks (wild card)

AFC – Patriots, Bengals, Colts, Texans (wild card), Broncos, Chiefs (wild card)

Championship Games

NFC – 49ers over Falcons

AFC – Broncos over Bengals

Super Bowl

49ers over Broncos

Mr. Armchair’s 20123 College Football Preview –

The dog days of summer are just about over, and all that is right in the world will soon start to take shape.  The 2013 College Football season will soon be upon us. 

Don’t get me wrong, I love, love baseball and love writing about it.  If you have missed me writing about baseball, you can find it here at www.baseballhotcorner.com.  I have reserved my baseball content strictly for this Web Site, so please go check it out.  There are other great writers on the Site as well who produce great content on the game of baseball.  But with the Giants in the midst of a disappointing 2013 season, the months of June, July, and August get a little long.  I’m ready for some football. 

Before I get to my Top 15 rankings, I want to give a quick preview of my University of California Golden Bears football team.  I’ll be entering my 8^th season as a Cal football season ticket holder, and not since the junior season of stud WR DeSean Jackson have I been more excited for a Cal football season than I am for this one.  This season begins a new era for Cal Football, as new head coach Sonny Dykes ushers in his high octane, spread offense – one that led the nation last season when he was the head coach at Louisiana Tech. 

While there are many question marks in terms of position battles, one battle that many had their eyes on was just declared over and a victor was announced.  That battle was at the QB position and coach Dykes just announced last week that true freshman Jared Goff will start at QB for the Bears, beating out redshirt freshman and highly-touted recruit, Zach Kline.  Goff beating out Kline comes as a huge surprise, as many felt that Kline had the inside track coming into the offseason and should have been named the starter just on reputation alone.  But Dykes opened up the competition and in the end, he’ll start his era of Cal football with a true freshman at the helm.     

Other names to look at for are junior RB Brendan Bigelow, who made a name for himself when he broke off two 70-plus yard runs on national television last season when the Bears were in Columbus, OH, and nearly beat THE Ohio State University.  Also, the trio of sophomore WR’s: Bryce Treggs, Chris Harper, and Darius Powe, will all see plenty of balls thrown their way in the new spread offense.  It will be extremely fun to watch.    

On defense, Cal will be young and inexperienced, but there is no lack of talent on this side of the ball.  Cal has recruited well the past couple of season, especially on the defensive side of the ball.  Guys like junior LB’s Nick Forbes, Brennan Scarlett, and Chris McCain should shine this season.  DB’s like sophomore Stefan McClure and junior Avery Sebastian should finally get a full season of starts under their belts and Sebastian especially could be the breakout player on defense.  And finally, I don’t think there is no other position where Cal is more talented and deep than on the DL.  They are loaded with highly recruited talents like sophomore Todd Barr, juniors Viliami “Tiny” Moala and Gabe King, and of course this unit is anchored down by senior DL and likely first-round pick in next year’s NFL Draft, DeAndre Coleman. 

In Sonny’s first season as head coach, I’m not expecting a lot of wins.  To be honest, if you were to offer me a 6-6 season with an appearance in the Kraft Fight Hunger Bowl, I would probably take it and not play out the season.  But I am excited that there is new, fresh blood being pumped into the Cal football system.  Hopefully with a new high-powered spread offense and a coach who is not afraid to play the best players, despite their year, the Cal football program can continue to grow and look forward to a Rose Bowl appearance in the not-so-distant future.       

Also really quickly, this will be the last season of the dreaded BCS Bowl System.  Debuting in 2014, there will be a 4-team playoff system that will, for once and for all, determine who will be the true National Champion.  While it’s not an 8-team playoff, which seems more logical, I’m not complaining because at least it’s a start.  At least we have movement in the right direction.  The system can be fixed and corrected along the way, but for now, at least we can see the light at the end of the tunnel when before we couldn’t even see the tunnel. 

So here it finally is, Mr. Armchair’s 2013 College Football Preview.

1.      Alabama – This is a formality.  I’m pretty sure we’ll continue to have Alabama ranked #1 for the next five seasons at the rate they are recruiting.  It is actually pretty impressive that they are able to dominate College Football in the fashion that they do.  They play in what is undoubtedly the hardest, toughest division in College Football and they recruit in arguably the hardest, toughest region of the United States, and yet they just keep on winning.  No other analysis needed at this point.    

2.      Oregon – As much as it pains me to have them here, I have to admit that they are really good.  They are probably the fastest team in the country, featuring a pair of Heisman Trophy candidates in junior RB De’Anthony Thomas and sophomore QB Marcus Mariota.  If they go undefeated in an underrated PAC-12 conference with new head coach Mark Helfrich, the computers will have no choice but to put Oregon in the #2-hole.  Bama v. Oregon would be a great National Championship game.   

3.      Ohio State – Now that they are finally Bowl eligibly, THE Ohio State University is ready to make their presence felt again after a few down years (well, technically they went undefeated last season, but hey, it’s not in the record books).  This will be Big Urb’s (head coach Urban Meyer) second season with the Buckeyes and his second season tutoring stud junior QB and Heisman Trophy favorite Braxton Miller.  A QB that talented with guidance from Big Urb is bound for big things.       

4.      South Carolina – One name:  Jadeveon Clowney.  Enough said.  This guy is a stud and from the DE position, can single-handedly be a game changer.  The consensus #1 pick in next year’s NFL Draft will not let this team fail.  Plus, their schedule is light, playing only three ranked teams.  They play #5 Georgia in Athens week 2, which is good because it’s early enough to where if they lose, they have time to make it up with games against #10 Florida and #8 Clemson.  The big question mark is senior QB Conner Shaw.         

5.      Stanford – I refuse to believe that a Stanford team will ever be as talented as the ones that then head coach Jim Harbaugh and QB Andrew Luck guided.  Their O-line may be the best in the nation, and with sophomore RB Barry Sanders (Yes, that Barry Sanders kid) taking on full snaps, he should rank up plenty of rushing yards.  Their schedule however gets really tough after the halfway point, with games against #21 UCLA, #25 Oregon State, #3 Oregon, #24 USC, rival Cal, and #14 ND, all in a consecutive weeks.   

6.      Georgia – They have a very good QB-RB combo in senior QB Aaron Murray and sophomore RB Todd Gurley.  Yes the start to their schedule is brutal, opening at #8 Clemson, then hosting #6 South Carolina the following week, and after a cupcake, hosting #12 LSU.  After that, the only other ranked team they play is #10 Florida, and that is at home.  I think they still carry with them the sting of almost beating Bama in the SEC Championship game last season.  

7.      Louisville – They easily play the softest schedule of all of the potential top 10 teams.  Playing in the newly formed American Athletic Conference, Louisville doesn’t have a single-ranked team on their schedule, with their only real challenge being a home game against Rutgers and an away game at Cincinnati to end the season.  This bodes well for junior QB and Heisman Trophy Candidate Teddy Bridgewater, as he will for sure fill up a stat sheet and make his case.    

8.      Texas A&M – It will be very interesting to see how the soap opera that is sophomore QB and Heisman Trophy winner Johnny Manziel will be fun to watch.  Things can go really bad for Texas A&M, or they can pick up where they left off last season and continue to improve and roll through teams.  I’ll take the middle ground and say that Manziel plays the full season despite the controversy, but Texas A&M still won’t crack the top 5.  The true test comes week 3, when they host #1 Alabama.   

9.      Florida St. – This team is still a year away from really being National Championship contenders.  They are loaded with talent after two really good recruiting classes, but they need this year to develop and gel together.  The schedule is light, with only two ranked teams on it, #8 Clemson and #10 Florida, both on the road.  The goal this season should be to develop their building blocks, freshman QB Jameis Winston and sophomore DE Mario Edwards.  Next year will be FSU’s year. 

10.  Clemson – I always rank Clemson lower than they will probably finish.  They always recruit really good athletes and they are super explosive on offense, with a very good QB-WR combo in senior QB Tajh Boyd and junior WR Sammy Watkins.  They have a challenge right out of the gate with a home game against #5 Georgia, but then it gets light, with their only challenging games remaining being #11 Florida State at home and their rivalry game against #6 South Carolina on the road to end the season.              

11.  LSU – It’s hard to believe that a Les Miles coached LSU team is out of the top 10 and not in the conversation for the National Championship, but I think it’s just one of those years for them.  There was a lot of promise last season in junior QB Zach Mettenberger, and he didn’t live up to expectations.  Now a senior, LSU needs him to step up and live up to the hype that followed him to LSU.  Also, late games against #1 Bama and #7 Texas A&M also doesn’t bode well for LSU. 

12.  Florida – I’m sorry Florida fans, but I’m just not a believer in you guys this year.  I have no faith in junior QB Jeff Driskel.  The schedule provides you with easy games to pad your record, but then games against #12 LSU in Baton Rouge, #5 Georgia at home, #6 South Carolina in Columbia, and #11 FSU at home, will put you guys in check.  I know you guys have a strong defense, but eventually in order to win games, you need to score points.  And again, Jeff Driskel is your QB.    

13.  Texas – Texas can’t stay down for this long, can they?  With head coach Mack Brown somewhat on the hot seat in Austin, Texas will need to have a good season in order for him to keep his job.  The big question will be the QB play, and that responsibility will fall on junior QB David Ash.  He’ll have weapons around him in sophomore RB Johnathan Gray and junior WR Jaxon Shipley.  Their true test will come in October, when they will play #16 Oklahoma and #20 TCU in consecutive weeks.   

14.   Oklahoma – I can’t bring myself to place an Oklahoma team that is coached by Bob Stoops outside the top 15.  Their schedule is brutal, playing #14 Norte Dame in South Bend, #20 TCU at home, and #15 Texas at home, all in consecutive weeks.  But I really like what they have at the QB position with junior Blake Bell.  He has the potential to be Tim Tebow light, having rushed for 16 TD’s last season.  If he can improve on his accuracy and passing ability, look out Big 12.      

15.  Norte Dame – I guess……..

National Championship Winner:  Alabama over Oregon

Heisman Winner:  AJ McCarron, QB  Alabama

Mr. Armchair Speaking!!!                

Mr. Armchair’s 2013 NBA Lottery Mock Draft and Recap of the NBA Finals –

Before I get into my mock NBA Draft lottery, I want to first recap briefly the NBA Finals.  The Miami Heat beat the San Antonio Spurs in Game 7 to win the NBA Championship, the Heats second title in as many years.  B……F…….D!!! 

Ok, onto my mock draft…..

Alright, I kid.  Well, I don’t somewhat.  I was touting this stat last week when I heard it, but in the last 30 years, my entire life-span, only 8 different teams have won the NBA Championship.  8!!!  That’s less than a third of your league!!!  That is just insane to me.  And with today’s NBA, where you have super-teams being formed because players are dictating what team they want to play for and who they want to play with, and now with the whole Clippers/Celtics/Doc Rivers situation where you have a coach dictating where and who he wants to coach, I don’t see this changing anytime soon.  The rich will get richer and the poorer will remain poor.  Once the Spurs quietly fade into the night whenever Tim Duncan, Gregg Popovich, and company decide to retire, there is little hope for the small-market teams to buck this trend.  If you are a fan of a small-market team, you better start praying that you land a superstar in the draft and that your franchise has the finance wherewithal to resign him once he becomes a free agent. 

Ok, onto the actually series.  The NBA Finals were somewhat exciting this postseason.  It took the Heat and Spurs 6 games to finally make these NBA finals compelling, but nevertheless games 6 and 7 were fun to watch.  I predicted in an earlier blog post that the Miami Heat would win the Finals in six games, and I thought I was being generous to the Spurs in making that prediction.  I felt LeBron would show his dominance over anyone and everyone on the Spurs and just take over this series and end it early.  And for the early portion of these Finals, that wasn’t the case.  LeBron played timid and passive, relying and waiting on others on the Heat to contribute.  This is what dragged the series on and into seven games.  By about half way through the second half of Game 6, LeBron finally said enough is enough.  He took over the game and series; and with a helping hand from Jesus Shuttlesworth, aka Ray Allen, hitting a routine clutch three, the Heat were able to come away victorious in Game 6 and ultimately prevail in the decisive Game 7.  In the end, my assessment I felt was right.  For the Spurs to win these Finals, they needed every one of their key players to be at their best.  For the Heat to win these Finals, they needed LeBron to keep being LeBron and have everyone else just get him the ball in crunch time and maybe contribute when needed.  The Spurs just couldn’t rise up and beat LeBron, not the Heat.  They may have been a better overall team, but they weren’t better than LeBron.  And we were witnesses.   

Ok, on to the NBA Draft.  By all accounts, this NBA Draft stinks.  When the consensus #1 overall pick has a torn Achilles and can’t even suit up for the team that drafts him, you know it’s a bad draft.  Kenyon Martin’s broken leg to the New Jersey Nets in the 2000 NBA Draft thinks this draft is bad.  Ok, I don’t believe this 2013 draft is as bad, but to give you a perspective, here is how that Kenyon Martin 2000 NBA Draft Lottery went:

1.      New Jersey Nets – Kenyon Martin, PF

2.      Vancouver Grizzlies – Stromile Swift, PF/C

3.      Los Angeles Clippers – Darius Miles, SF/SG

4.      Chicago Bulls – Marcus Fizer, PF

5.      Orlando Magic – Mike Miller, SF/SG

6.      Atlanta Hawks – DerMarr Johnson, SG/SF

7.      Chicago Bulls – Chris Mihm, C/PF (traded to Cleveland)

8.      Cleveland Cavaliers – Jamal Crawford, SG (traded to Chicago)

9.      Houston Rockets – Joel Przybilla, C (traded to Milwaukee)

10.  Orlando Magic – Keyon Dooling, SG (traded to Los Angeles Clippers)

11.  Boston Celtics – Jerome Moiso, PF

12.  Dallas Mavericks – Etan Thomas, PF/C

13.  Orlando Magic – Courtney Alexander, SG (traded to Dallas)

14.  Detroit Pistons – Mateen Cleaves, PG

As you can see, that was a horrible draft.  Now I don’t think this year’s NBA Draft is that bad, but accordingly to the draft experts who study this far more extensively than I do, they think this draft is one of the weaker drafts we’ve seen in recent years.  I actually subscribe to Chad Ford’s logic in that this draft may lack a superstar, but there is some good depth to this draft and prospects that have the potential to be good, not great, NBA players.   

I always like to give a breakdown on where teams are drafting and what they can expect in terms of the type of player they should be getting when drafting where they are.  If you are drafting in the top 5, and if you definitely have the #1 overall pick, you should expect to draft a player that will turn out to be an All-Star caliber player or at the very least, a very good starter for your team.  If you are drafting in-between picks #6-#14, you should expect to draft a player who will turn out to be a starter for your team or at the very least, a good rotation player.  If you are drafting outside of the Lottery, picks #15-#30, all you are hoping for is to draft a player who will become a good, off-the-bench, rotation-type player for your team.  It is unrealistic to think that you can draft someone in the 20’s and expect them to become an All-Star or show the same productivity as a Top 5 or 10 pick.  Now that’s not to say it can’t happen, and obviously there are cases where history proves us wrong, but it’s expectations we are talking about and there are those players who exceed them.  Lastly, any player drafted in the second-round, all you are expecting, and or hoping for, is that they just make the team and help fill out the roster.  Again, there are cases.  

So if you were to swing this argument back around and equate this to the NFL Draft, it would look something like this:

Top 5 = 1^st round picks

6 – 14 = 2^nd to 3^rd round picks

15 – 30 = 4^th to 5^th round picks

2^nd round = 6^th to 7^th round picks      

You can agree with that or not, but with that reasoning in line, here is Mr. Armchair’s 2013 NBA Lottery Mock Draft.

1.  Cleveland Cavaliers – Nerlenes Noel, PF/C Kentucky

He is supposedly the best talent in the draft with the most potential.  I’m not convinced that he goes #1, but as of now Noel is the consensus.  Alex Len and Otto Porter are also rumored to be in the mix as well it’s a very real possibility that the Cavs flat out trade the pick.  Stay tuned.    

2.  Orlando Magic – Ben McLemore, SG Kansas

I like McLemore as a player and think he can be one of the few players in this draft who can become a potential All-Star.  I wouldn’t read too much into his season with Kansas, as he was a freshman playing with upperclassmen and naturally anyone would take a timid approach.

3.  Washington Wizards – Otto Porter, SF Georgetown   

There is no better player-to-team fit than Porter going to the Wizards here.  They have a glaring need at the SF position and Potter could slide right in a make an immediate impact.  He, along with John Wall and Bradley Beal, make up a nice, young core to build around.  

4.  Charlotte Bobcats – Alex Len, C Maryland

The Bobcats are in serious need of some front-court help, as they got zero offensive production from that position.  Len has a nice offensive game and can play with his back to the basket.  Plus, new head coach, Steve Clifford, is a big-man guru.  Len could also go #1 however.  

5.  Phoenix Suns – Victor Oladipo, SG Indiana

My NBA Draft crush!  Normally with my crush, I try my best to finagle and plot out a scenario to where I can have my crush be drafted by my Sacramento Kings.  Unfortunately, I couldn’t find a plausible way to make it happen.  The Suns get arguably the best player in the draft.  

6.  New Orleans Pelicans – Anthony Bennett, SF/PF UNLV

I know Bennett is listed as a PF, but there are some who think he is athletic enough to play SF, and I think the Pelicans will try that route with him.  They also need guard help, and Trey Burke or Michael Carter-Williams can go here as well, but Bennett is more talented than them.

7.  Sacramento Kings – C.J. McCollum, PG/SG Lehigh

He was just in town for his second workout with the Kings, and supposedly, he can shoot the lights out.  I know the last thing the Kings need is another guard, but they need players who cannot just shoot the ball, but make the shot, and McCollum does that well.  And I’m not worried about him being able to play in the NBA coming from a small school like Lehigh and being an upperclassman.  I think Stephen Curry from Davidson and Damian Lillard from Weber State bucked that train-of-thought.  Just please don’t take Shabazz Muhammad here!!    

8.  Detroit Pistons – Trey Burke, PG Michigan

The Michigan kid stays home with the Pistons.  There is talk that the Pistons will move current PG, Brandon Knight, to SG, opening up a spot at PG.  Burke is a proven winner who can shoot the ball from anywhere on the court.  Good pick here for the Pistons.

9.  Minnesota Timberwolves – Kentavious Caldwell-Pope, SG Georgia

He already won the award for best name in the draft.  Supposedly this kid really impressed at the NBA Scouting Combine so his star has been on the rise.  The Timberwolves are in need of a big guard who can shoot, and Pope is also listed at 6’6” and can shoot. 

10.  Portland Trail Blazers – Cody Zeller, PF/C Indiana

The Trail Blazers currently have J.J. Hickson listed as their starting C.  That is all I needed to see to make Zeller here the best fit for them.  He adds much needed size to their front court, moves well running up and down the floor, and has a nice touch on his outside jumper.  I like Zeller.    

11.  Philadelphia 76ers – Steven Adams, C Pittsburgh

I heard Scott Howard-Cooper on the radio say that Adams is moving up boards, and then I read SI’s Point Forward which says if Adams is taken in the lottery, he’s overrated.  Adams makes complete sense here, as the failed Andrew Bynum experiment is finally over for the 76ers.

12.  Oklahoma City Thunder (from Toronto via Houston) – Michael Carter-Williams, PG Syracuse OKC was a completely different team when Russell Westbrook went down with his injury in the playoffs.  They had no true back-up PG, and had to play SG, Reggie Jackson, out of position in order to supplement the loss.  Carter-Williams can’t shoot, but his PG skills are just fine.

13.  Dallas Mavericks – Sergey Karasev, SG Russia

The Mavs want no part of this pick along with the guaranteed money on their books, as they want as much cap space available to make a run at a high-priced free agent.  They’ll most likely trade the pick.  If they can’t, they’ll take the best available euro and stash him overseas.   

14.  Utah Jazz – Shane Larkin, PG Miami   

The Jazz current depth chart at the PG position reads like this:  Mo Williams, Jamaal Tinsley, Earl Watson, and Jerel McNeal.  I think the Jazz are praying that someone like Trey Burke, C.J. McCollum, or Michael Carter-Williams falls to them, but in this scenario, they’ll settle for Larkin.

Mr. Armchair Speaking –