Mr. Armchair's 2014 Super Bowl Prop Bet Preview

So every year I always lay down some coin on the novelty Super Bowl Prop bets.  It's a good way to make the game more entertaining, while potentially making some cash.  I normally only put a buck or two down on some of the fun ones; nothing too costly.  I don't like risking too much on what color Gatorade will be dumped on the head coach (will get to that one in a minute).

So now here is the Mr. Armchair Prop Bet Preview -


1.  Super Bowl MVP -

Wes Welker, WR Denver  28/1 - $1.00 to win $28.00
Doug Baldwin, WR Seattle  40/1 - $1.00 to win $40.00

QB's are always the favorite to win Super Bowl MVP, that is why the odds are always so bad.  It's not worth even putting down the dollar.  We all know that if Denver wins Peyton will be a garuanteed lock to win the Super Bowl MVP, and the same can most likely be said for Russell Wilson if Seattle wins.  So why not shoot for the moon here and possibly score huge?

2.  Who will the Super Bowl MVP mention first in his speech?

Teammates 1/1 - $1.00 to win $1.00
God 3/1 - $1.00 to win $3.00

This one I had to do two bets to cover each team.  I'm assuming here that either Manning or Wilson will win the MVP Award if their team's win.  If Manning wins, he will most likely thank his teammates first.  Last time Manning won the Super Bowl and the MVP Award, he thanked his teammates first in his speech (YouTube verified).  If Wilson wins, he is a noted Christian and loves God, thanks him all the time.  He will most surely thank God first in his speech.

3.  What color will the Gatorade be that is dumped on the Head Coach of the winning Super Bowl team?

Orange 5/4 - $1.00 to win $1.25
Blue 8/1 - $1.00 to win $8.00

I normally side with what are the team colors or jersey colors.  In this case, I really like the Blue bet here because if Denver wins, orange and blue are both in the teams color scheme, and Seattle will be dawning their road blue jersey.  Denver is also in their home orange jerseys, hence the hedging of orange and blue.

4.  Will Richard Sherman receive a pass interference penalty in the game?

Yes +150 - $1.00 to win $1.50

Seattle plays a ton of bump and run man coverage, and their DB's are big and physical.  It's what makes them a great defense, but it also makes them accessible to drawing a lot of PI penalties.  Sherman himself is good for at least one PI penalty called on him.

5.  Will any member of the Red Hot Chilli Peppers be shirtless during their performance?

Yes -250 - $1.00 to win $0.40

This is a terrible bet odds wise, but I just couldn't pass it up.  I don't think Flea even owns a shirt.

6.  Will the announcers refer to Russell Wilson being drafted in the MLB?

Yes even - $1.00 to win $1.00

Is Jerome Bettis from Detroit?

7.  How many times will Peyton Manning say "Omaha" during the game?

Over on 27 1/2 -150 - $1.00 to win $0.67

I actually think 271/2 is a bit low.  If Peyton is going to donate to charity again for each time he says "Omaha," he'll definitely run up this tally.

8.  How many times will "Beast Mode" be said during the game?

Over on 2 +110 - $1.00 to win $1.10

Marshawn will be force-fed the ball all game.  He runs hard and will definitely get loose for a couple solid runs.  Joe Buck won't be able to contain himself.

9.  If Renee Fleming wears gloves when she starts singing the US National Anthem, what color will they be?

White +275 - $1.00 to win $2.75

I was originally going to pick black; neutral color that matches with any color dress or accessory.  But the odds were terrible and I thought I could potentially get out to a good start here with the white odds.

10.  Will Knowshon Moreno cry during the singing of the National Anthem?

Yes +135 - $1.00 to win $1.35

If this guy cries during the National Anthem before a regular season Denver v. Tennessee game....

11.  How long will it take Renee Fleming to sing the official US National Anthem?

Over on 2 minutes and 25 seconds +150 - $2.00 to win $3.00

I love this bet!!!  Make it every year and always, ALWAYS, take the over.  This is center stage for any professional singer and with the world watching them.  Plus, Ms. Fleming is an opera singer who may or may not have an orchestra or symphony accompanying her.  This Anthem may last 7 minutes and 15 seconds.

12.  Player to record the 1st Denver Reception in the game?

Julius Thomas, TE 5/1 - $1.00 to win $5.00

Peyton loves his TE's and Thomas was huge for him this season, my yours truly's fantasy team.  He'll want to get him involved early in the game.

13.  Player to record the 1st Seattle Reception in the game?

Zach Miller, TE 6/1 - $1.00 to win $6.00

Same logic for Manning goes for Wilson.

14.  Player to score the first Denver TD in the game?

Knowshon Moreno, RB 5/1 - $1.00 to win $5.00

I'm basing this on attempts.  Denver/Manning hand the ball off a ton when down deep in the Red Zone.  I think Moreno has a good shot of getting into the endzone.

15.  Coin Toss?

Tails -105 - $2.00 to win $1.90

Odds are the same for Heads and Tails, so I go by the rule of "tails never fails."

16.  Longest successful FG in the game?  

Over on 44 1/2 -115 - $1.00 to win $0.87

Denver's Matt Prater and Seattle's Steve Hauchska are money from beyond 45 yards.  One of them will hit one.

17.  Will there be an onside kick attempt in the game?

Yes +225 - $1.00 to win $2.25

I just like the odds on this bet and I think there is a decent chance an onside kick situation could happen.

18.  Distance of the first punt in the game?

Over on 41 1/2 yards - $1.00 to win $0.87

I'm guessing that the first possession for either team will result in a three and out, leaving plenty of field for a long punt attempt.

19.  Will the Halftime show break the record for most watched ever (record Madonna 114 million viewers)

Yes +200 - $1.00 to win $2.00

Fox brought out the heavy-hitters in Bruno Mars and the Red Hot Chilli Peppers.  They got a pretty good shot at breaking the record.

20.  What will happen with the Dow Jones the day after the Super Bowl?

Market up -150, $1.00 to win $0.67

With all of the new commercials and advertising during the Super Bowl, everyone will be trade happy.

21.  Which region will have the higher local TV rating?

Seattle +110, $1.00 to win $1.10

If Seattle and the 12th Man want to prove that they are truly the best fans in the NFL......

22.  Who will be seen first on TV after kickoff?

Pam Oliver, Even, $1.00 to win $1.00

My choices were Pam Oliver or Erin Andrews.  While we all love ourselves some Erin Andrews, Oliver is Fox's lead sideline reporter and will most likely be on Denver's sideline.  They will always be going to her first for sideline reports.


Mr. Armchair Speaking!!!

Mr. Armchair’s 2014 Super Bowl Preview –

Christmas comes in early February for most football fans; the Super Bowl is finally here.  While most of us are disappointed that our favorite team isn’t playing on Sunday, we will still gather around the television with excitement and anticipation as opening kickoff is promptly scheduled for Sunday, February 2^nd, 2014, at 6:25 p.m. EST.

This year’s Super Bowl features both #1 seeds from their respective conference, the Denver Broncos representing the AFC, and the Seattle Seahawks representing the NFC.  It’s a classic matchup of offense v. defense.  On one side, you have one of the greatest QB’s to ever play the game in Peyton Manning running what is probably the most efficient and high-powered offense to ever take the field.  And on the other side you have a dominating defense that ranks #1 or near the top of almost ever defensive category this season.  For those making predictions on who will win this game, it basically comes down to your philosophy on the game of football and what you value most.  If you are an offensive-minded guy, Denver is your pick.  If you fall under the old adage of “defense wins championships,” then you are going with Seattle.  But there is no denying that these two teams are about as evenly matched as you can get. 

Let’s take a quick look at some of those matchups.

1.      Peyton Manning v. Richard Sherman – First, this won’t be much of a matchup, but I’m forced to talk about it.  If Manning is smart, and we all know he is, he won’t be throwing much toward Sherman’s way.  If he does throw his way, it will be short come-back routes or quick hitches, routes that are nearly impossible for CBs to cover.  But all these media pundits making a big deal about whether or not Manning will test Sherman and throw his way is all fodder in order to drive up mouse clicks on their articles.  Manning wants to win, and win badly; and that means not throwing to Sherman’s side of the field.  And then the second guessing will come in that Manning should have thrown at Sherman because he has something to prove to him for the “throws ducks” comment.  Please, Manning is the last player on that field who should feel he has to prove something to Sherman.

2.      Wes Welker v. Seahawks slot DB – With Sherman probably facing off against Demaryius Thomas or whoever lines up on that side of the field, the matchup to exploit for the Broncos will be whoever is covering Welker out of the slot, which will most likely be Seahawks CB Jeremy Lane.  Lane is a good special teamer but an average to below-average CB.  I expect Welker to run routes all game around Lane, whether it’s crossing routes over the middle to get loose or seam routes down the field to get open.  Welker should have a big game on Sunday, provided that he catches the ball (I know, low blow).

3.      Pot Roast v. Interior of the Seahawks O-line – Pot Roast, otherwise known as DT Terrance Knighton (man that has to be the coolest nickname in the NFL), singled-handedly shut down the New England Patriots running attack, clogging up those A and B gaps in the interior and getting good push up the middle.  I know Marshawn Lynch is a completely different RB than LeGarrette Blount, Shane Vereen, or Stevan Ridley, but running lanes are running lanes and if they aren’t open, Lynch will have nowhere to go.  C Max Unger and OG’s James Carpenter and J.R. Sweezy will have their hands full with Pot Roast (delete mental image) eating them up all game long. 

4.      Russell Wilson v. the Broncos DB’s – Wilson hasn’t thrown for more than 220 passing yards since the first weekend of December, 2013.  And in these last six games Wilson has only thrown for one TD in each of those games.  If the Seahawks are going to win this game, they will need Wilson to be more involved.  He needs to be able to move the ball through the passing game.  He’ll have a relatively healthy Percy Harvin at his disposal, but if I’m Wilson, I start utilizing my TE’s early and often in this game.  Getting them involved in the passing game early will not only get Wilson into a rhythm, it will draw the Broncos’ safeties up in coverage and start to open things up for the WR’s down the field.  TE’s Zach Miller and Luke Wilson should be Wilson’s best friends on Sunday.

5.      LDE’s Michael Bennett and Cliff Avril v. LT Chris Clark – The Seahawks’ defense rely heavily on their D-line getting tremendous pressure on the QB; and they are very good at it, generating 44 sacks as a defense this season.  Two of the best pass-rushers this defense has are Bennett and Avril, together combining for 16.5 sacks this season (Bennett 8.5, Avril 8.0).  Clark has been assigned the duty of protecting Manning’s blindside, probably the most important job in the NFL.  After taking over for LT Ryan Clady who suffered a season-ending injury, Clark has done a tremendous job holding down the left side of the O-line and protecting Manning.  But what also makes his job easier is that Manning has the best mental clock in his head and feel for pressure in the pocket.  His quick release, along with his timing and feel, makes Manning one of the toughest QB’s to sack in the NFL.  The Seahawks will have to get creative in their coverages and blitzes in order to throw Manning’s timing off and hope by doing so will generate some sacks.      

Final Prediction:  Denver 34 – Seattle 27

Super Bowl MVP:  Peyton Manning

Reasoning:  All of the metrics say that the Seahawks are going to win this game, but the money and public are going with the Broncos.  Usually in these cases, the public is generally wrong, but I’m not going to be the one who bets against Peyton Manning in the Super Bowl.  Yeah I know he already lost one, but there are just some players in sports who you never bet against, and Manning is one of those.  Given that he has had two weeks to study and work on a game plan to beat this dominating Seahawks defense, I like my chances in picking the Broncos.  I also think that the Broncos defense is getting a little unsold here in this matchup and they will be able to contain Lynch on the ground and will make Wilson try to beat them.  I just don’t see that happening.  Manning will cement his legacy with his second Super Bowl victory. 

 

Mr. Armchair Speaking!!!                 

Richard Sherman, I'm not mad bro. Just disappointed.

So I've decided to make my triumphant return to the Mr. Armchair blog this 2014.  I took some time off to re-energize the batteries and to figure out how I wanted to approach the Armchair.  I will continue to reverse my baseball content strictly for Baseball Hot Corner (www.baseballhotcorner.com) and I'm very excited to be a part of that community and the future that it's heading in.  So the Armchair will be for all other sports takes and opinions:  football, basketball, college sports, and anything else that interests me.  Think of this much like what Keith Law does for ESPN, writing baseball articles for them but still having his personal website for his music and movie reviews, and of course his Top Chef recaps.

So I wanted to start this year and the first post with my take on the events that occurred after a great NFC Championship game, namely with one, Richard Sherman.  First, I will acknowledge that Sherman is an elite talent and probably the best CB in the NFL.  I will also acknowledge that I am a die-hard 49ers fan, and can be times a little homerish when it comes to defend my team and its players.  I also will not call, nor do I consider Richard Sherman a thug or punk, as some are describing him.  Classless, we will get to that.  So I wanted to preface that right from the beginning.

As a 49er fan and human being, I did not appreciate what Richard Sherman did during his postgame interview with Fox's Erin Andrews, calling out Michael Crabtree and saying that he is a "sorry, mediocre WR."  However, I take more offense with Sherman making a choke sign toward Colin Kaepernick, which drew a 15-yard penalty for unsportsmanlike conduct.  I also take umbrage with Sherman going up to Crabtree after the great play he made, slapping him on the butt, and trying to shake his hand.  I think Crabtree had every right to put his hand in Sherman's face and push him away.  There is a time and place for that, and at that time, it was not.  But this isn't a which side are you on argument, and I'm not here to defend Crabtree.  This is strictly about Sherman's actions.

So let's dissect this by each event.  First the postgame interview with Ms. Andrews.  I think Sherman showed zero class in his postgame interview.  I get that he is an emotional player and him and Crabtree have "beef" toward each other, but what his actions showed was that he is incapable of taking the highroad.  There are better, classier wise of proving your point without going on a roid rage.  But what I also don't like about his antics is that he chose to take his great play and the great play of his team and turn it into a "look at me" moment, which in turns deflects the attention on what was otherwise a great game and a great play.  People aren't talking about the great play that he, Sherman, made to cause the INT, and people aren't talking about the great play LB Malcolm Smith made to hustle down the field to make the INT.  Instead, we are talking about Richard Sherman.  That was his agenda.  I get that's his brand, but if he wants his brand to be that of a glorified WWE character, that is something that I can't get behind.

The choke sign toward Kaepernick made by Sherman was completely uncalled for.  Kaepernick, to my knowledge, has never said anything directed toward Sherman that would constitute trash-talking.  For Sherman to deliberately make that gesture to Kaep was bush league.  Act like you've been there, my man.  And the same goes toward going up to Crabtree after the play and slapping him on the butt and trying to shake his hand.  We all know that he wasn't doing that in good faith, he was doing it to show up Crabtree.  If he really meant to go up to Crabtree and congratulate him on a good game, then do it after the game when all the rest of the players meet at midfield to shake hands.

I know he has since come out and written an article for Peter King's Monday Morning Quarterback explaining his actions, but he has also taken to twitter to apologize for his antics, which makes me think that at least he recognizes what he did was wrong.  He's an intelligent guy, Stanford educated, so I was confident that it would eventually sink in to him that he owed everyone an apology.  But he says in his article that he doesn't want to be portrayed as a villain because he's not a villainous person, and I'm here to tell you that you can't have it both wise, Richard Sherman.  You can't tell people to think of you as a good person and then pull the type of antics you did.  If you want to change the narrative, than you have to change your persona.

So Richard Sherman, I'm not mad bro.  Just disappointed.    


Mr. Armchair Speaking!!!