This year’s
Super Bowl features both #1 seeds from their respective conference, the Denver
Broncos representing the AFC, and the Seattle Seahawks representing the NFC. It’s a classic matchup of offense v.
defense. On one side, you have one of
the greatest QB’s to ever play the game in Peyton Manning running what is
probably the most efficient and high-powered offense to ever take the field. And on the other side you have a dominating
defense that ranks #1 or near the top of almost ever defensive category this
season. For those making predictions on
who will win this game, it basically comes down to your philosophy on the game
of football and what you value most. If
you are an offensive-minded guy, Denver is your pick. If you fall under the old adage of “defense
wins championships,” then you are going with Seattle. But there is no denying that these two teams
are about as evenly matched as you can get.
Let’s take a
quick look at some of those matchups.
1. Peyton Manning v. Richard Sherman – First, this
won’t be much of a matchup, but I’m forced to talk about it. If Manning is smart, and we all know he is,
he won’t be throwing much toward Sherman’s way.
If he does throw his way, it will be short come-back routes or quick
hitches, routes that are nearly impossible for CBs to cover. But all these media pundits making a big deal
about whether or not Manning will test Sherman and throw his way is all fodder
in order to drive up mouse clicks on their articles. Manning wants to win, and win badly; and that
means not throwing to Sherman’s side of the field. And then the second guessing will come in
that Manning should have thrown at Sherman because he has something to prove to
him for the “throws ducks” comment.
Please, Manning is the last player on that field who should feel he has
to prove something to Sherman.
2. Wes Welker v. Seahawks slot DB – With Sherman
probably facing off against Demaryius Thomas or whoever lines up on that side
of the field, the matchup to exploit for the Broncos will be whoever is
covering Welker out of the slot, which will most likely be Seahawks CB Jeremy
Lane. Lane is a good special teamer but
an average to below-average CB. I expect
Welker to run routes all game around Lane, whether it’s crossing routes over
the middle to get loose or seam routes down the field to get open. Welker should have a big game on Sunday,
provided that he catches the ball (I know, low blow).
3. Pot Roast v. Interior of the Seahawks O-line –
Pot Roast, otherwise known as DT Terrance Knighton (man that has to be the
coolest nickname in the NFL), singled-handedly shut down the New England
Patriots running attack, clogging up those A and B gaps in the interior and
getting good push up the middle. I know
Marshawn Lynch is a completely different RB than LeGarrette Blount, Shane
Vereen, or Stevan Ridley, but running lanes are running lanes and if they aren’t
open, Lynch will have nowhere to go. C
Max Unger and OG’s James Carpenter and J.R. Sweezy will have their hands full
with Pot Roast (delete mental image) eating them up all game long.
4. Russell Wilson v. the Broncos DB’s – Wilson
hasn’t thrown for more than 220 passing yards since the first weekend of
December, 2013. And in these last six
games Wilson has only thrown for one TD in each of those games. If the Seahawks are going to win this game,
they will need Wilson to be more involved.
He needs to be able to move the ball through the passing game. He’ll have a relatively healthy Percy Harvin
at his disposal, but if I’m Wilson, I start utilizing my TE’s early and often
in this game. Getting them involved in
the passing game early will not only get Wilson into a rhythm, it will draw the
Broncos’ safeties up in coverage and start to open things up for the WR’s down
the field. TE’s Zach Miller and Luke
Wilson should be Wilson’s best friends on Sunday.
5. LDE’s Michael Bennett and Cliff Avril v. LT
Chris Clark – The Seahawks’ defense rely heavily on their D-line getting
tremendous pressure on the QB; and they are very good at it, generating 44
sacks as a defense this season. Two of
the best pass-rushers this defense has are Bennett and Avril, together
combining for 16.5 sacks this season (Bennett 8.5, Avril 8.0). Clark has been assigned the duty of
protecting Manning’s blindside, probably the most important job in the
NFL. After taking over for LT Ryan Clady
who suffered a season-ending injury, Clark has done a tremendous job holding
down the left side of the O-line and protecting Manning. But what also makes his job easier is that
Manning has the best mental clock in his head and feel for pressure in the
pocket. His quick release, along with
his timing and feel, makes Manning one of the toughest QB’s to sack in the
NFL. The Seahawks will have to get
creative in their coverages and blitzes in order to throw Manning’s timing off
and hope by doing so will generate some sacks.
Final
Prediction: Denver 34 – Seattle 27
Super Bowl
MVP: Peyton Manning
Reasoning: All of the metrics say that the Seahawks are
going to win this game, but the money and public are going with the
Broncos. Usually in these cases, the public
is generally wrong, but I’m not going to be the one who bets against Peyton
Manning in the Super Bowl. Yeah I know
he already lost one, but there are just some players in sports who you never
bet against, and Manning is one of those.
Given that he has had two weeks to study and work on a game plan to beat
this dominating Seahawks defense, I like my chances in picking the
Broncos. I also think that the Broncos
defense is getting a little unsold here in this matchup and they will be able
to contain Lynch on the ground and will make Wilson try to beat them. I just don’t see that happening. Manning will cement his legacy with his
second Super Bowl victory.
Mr. Armchair
Speaking!!!
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