This is probably my favorite post that I do all year that doesn’t involve the San Francisco Giants winning the World Series; my NFL draft recap and my Kentucky Derby preview. It’s long, lengthy, but filled with good stuff. If you are strictly looking for my Derby preview and picks, you can scroll down to the bottom to find it.
The three-day extravaganza that is the NFL Draft has come to an end with 254 collegiate football athletes having new jobs and employers. It’s probably one of the greatest days in those young men’s lives; receiving that phone call informing them that they have been drafted to play football in the NFL.
So how did Mr. Armchair’s Mock Draft hold up against the experts? This year……not so well. I got 3 out of 32 correct picks, 9%. Note: a corrected pick counts as either a player getting drafted by the team you had them getting drafted by, or a player getting drafted in the numbered pick you had them getting drafted. And for added stat purposes, we are calculating Hits v. Direct Hits. A “Direct Hit” is having pick + team + player. A “Hit” is being pick + player – team or player + team – pick. Here are the stat lines:
Mike Mayock, NFL Network – 12 Hits, 8 Direct
Todd McShay, ESPN and Scouts Inc. – 10 Hits, 7 Direct
Mel Kiper, Jr., ESPN and known NFL Draft expert – 9 Hits, 8 Direct
Charley Casserly, NFL Network and ex-NFL GM – 8 Hits, 3 Direct
Don Banks, SI.com – 7 Hits, 4 Direct
Scouts, Inc., ESPN Football Insiders – 4 Hits, 4 Direct
MR. ARMCHAIR, Your favorite NFL Draft expert – 3 Hits, 2 Direct
Peter King, SI.com NFL writer and Insider – 2 Hits, 1 Direct
Mr. Armchair didn’t fair too well this NFL Draft season. You know it’s not going to be a good day for you when you miss on the 1st OVERALL PICK!!! From there, I couldn’t stop the bleeding. 2nd, 3rd, 4th, 5th, 6th, 7th, all miss fires. It wasn’t until the 8th overall pick when the St. Louis Rams traded with the Buffalo Bills and selected WR Tavon Austin out of West Virginia. Finally, my first hit!!! I had the Rams taking Austin with the 16th pick overall. Then it starts again, 9th, 10th, 11th, 12th, 13th………..miss, miss, miss!!! 14th, 15th, 16th, 17th, 18th, 19th………when is it going to stop!!! 20th, 21st, 22nd, 23rd, 24th, 25th, 26th, 27th……credibility out the window!!! Finally, 28th pick, the Denver Broncos throw me a bone and take DT Sylvester Williams from UNC; 2nd hit, 1st direct hit of the draft. Cloaked in failure, 29th, 30th, 31st, went by as misses. However, the Baltimore Ravens raise my spirits somewhat for next season, as they picked S Matt Elam of Florida with the 32nd and last pick of the first round. 3rd hit, 2nd direct hit, and it keeps me coming back for more. I guess I have to look on the bright side; at least I did better than Peter King!
Analysis Time –
It is always hard to analyze or “grade” a draft class right after the draft happens. You can’t truly analyze or “grade” a draft for at least 3-4 years afterward. But it makes for fun reading so I partake.
San Francisco 49ers – A+
Analysis: No homer here, the 49ers had the best draft. They came into this draft with the most picks at 13, and used all of them to maneuver and manipulate the draft. They drafted up 13 spots in the 1st round in order to get their guy in S Eric Reid, and they only had to give up a 3rd round pick to do so. Tank Carradine in the 2nd round was an awesome pick, as I had them taking him with their original 1st round pick at #31. And WR Quinton Patton and RB Marcus Lattimore are huge gets.
Minnesota Vikings – A
Analysis: Anytime you walk away from a draft with three immediate starters, you get an A in my book. The Vikings got an absolute steal in DT Sharrif Floyd with the first of their two 1st round draft picks. Many, myself included, had Floyd going in the top 10. With their second 1st round pick, they were able to grab CB Xavier Rhodes, who again many had as a top 15 pick. Then they traded back into the 1st round to grab WR Cordarrelle Patterson. All three will start the minute training camp opens.
St. Louis Rams – A
Analysis: The Rams had to nail this draft. Being in the same division as the 49ers and Seahawks, who both have built through the draft, the Rams needed to prove they belong, and they did. They walked away with a boat-load of talented players. They got the guy they coveted in WR Tavon Austin. He is the type of explosive WR the Rams and QB Sam Bradford have been waiting for. I also like the drafting of ILB Alec Ogletree, and late-round picks S T.J. McDonald, WR Stedman Bailey, and C Barrett Jones.
Tennessee Titans – A
Analysis: RB Chris Johnson and QB Jake Locker should be jumping for joy right now. The Titans drafted two of the best interior O-Linemen in the draft at their respective positions in OG Chance Warmack in the 1st round and C Brian Schwenke (Cal guy as well) in the 4th round. I also really like the pick of WR Justin Hunter in the 2nd round. Hunter was thought to be a late 1st round pick. CB Blidi Wreh-Wilson in the 3rd round was also a good get. He too was at one time thought of as a 1st round pick.
Baltimore Ravens – A-
Analysis: The franchise lost their two most identifiable players in HOF’ers S Ed Reed and ILB Ray Lewis. While they will be hard to replace, the Ravens spent their two first picks in the draft addressing those holes with 1st round pick S Matt Elam and 2nd round pick OLB/ILB Arthur Brown. Those two will be immediate starters from the first day of training camp. Also, I can’t help but like the pick of Cal Bear CB Marc Anthony in the 7th round. Dude can play and I think he will stick in the league.
Cincinnati Bengals – A-
Analysis: The Bengals had another great draft. I love the pick of 1st rounder TE Tyler Eifert. I had Eifert going to the Jets at pick #13, so for the Bengals to grab him at pick #21 is a steal. I also like their two 2nd round picks in RB Giovani Bernard and DE Margus Hunt. While Bernard wasn’t the highest rated RB, he is the best pass-catching RB in the draft and will complement starting RB BenJarvis Green-Ellis nicely. Also, Hunt was thought to be late 1st round pick, so again to get him in the late 2nd is a steal.
Arizona Cardinals – B+
Analysis: The Cardinals quietly had a really good draft. They didn’t draft any skilled-positioned players, but they plugged some holes with some very good players. Their OL was terrible last season, and while the desired pick would have been any of the three T’s, landing OG Jonathan Cooper with their 1st round pick isn’t a bad constellation prize. I really like the pick of ILB Kevin Minter in the 2nd round as well. And of course, we’ll have to wait and see what comes of 3rd round pick CB Tyrann Mathieu.
Green Bay Packers – B+
Analysis: I feel like the Packers lucked out with their draft whether than actually drafting well. But sometimes, it’s better to be lucky than good. They needed more talent and bodies along the DL and getting DE Datone Jones in the 1st round fits their 4-3 scheme. But I thought the more pressing need for the Pack was at RB so I had them taking RB Eddie Lacy with their first pick. Just so happens they ended up getting him in the 2nd round. Again, was it luck or well played? Not sure, but it worked out.
New Orleans Saints – B+
Analysis: For only having five draft picks, the Saints made the most of them. The way the draft worked out, they were in position to pick either OLB Jarvis Jones or S Kenny Vaccaro, both filling important needs. They went with Vaccaro, as the Saints were last in passing yards given up. I also like the pick of T Terron Armstead in the 3rd round. He set the record for fastest 40-yard dash time by an O-Lineman. Given time, he could develop into a nice player. I also like DT John Jenkins in the 3rd round.
Pittsburgh Steelers – B+
Analysis: The Steelers had four needs going into the draft and they went out and spent their first four picks on those needs. No reaching, no over-drafting just to fill the need, but good, solid players. With their 1st round pick, they get the top OLB in Jarvis Jones. With their 2nd round pick, they get RB Le’Veon Bell, who is a good pass-catching RB. They address the WR position with taking WR Markus Wheaton in the 3rd round. Lastly, they grab a good S in Shamarko Thomas in the 4th round.
Atlanta Falcons – B
Analysis: There was one need and one need only on this team that needed to be filled, and that was at CB. The Falcons traded up in the 1st round and got their guy in CB Desmond Trufant. I think this was a good move because if they had stayed at their original pick of #30, they may not have been able to pick either Trufant or CB Xavier Rhodes, who went to the Vikings at pick #25. They backed up the Trufant pick with getting CB Robert Alford in the 2nd round. Mission accomplished, need filled.
Carolina Panthers – B
Analysis: When you only have five draft picks, it’s very hard to go and be successful at filling all of your needs. So what the Panthers did was identify their most pressing need, and draft to that one need. The Panthers were horrible against the run last season due to a lack of a good DT. Enter 1st round pick DT Star Lotulelei and 2nd round pick DT Kawann Short. Lotulelei was the consensus #1 overall pick heading into last year’s college football season. To get him at pick #14 deserves the grade alone.
Denver Broncos – B
Analysis: Not a sexy draft and really didn’t fill any needs, but I like it. I think there first priority was to get a CB to be the heir apparent to the great Champ Bailey, but once both CB Desmond Trufant and CB Xavier Rhodes were taken, they shift focus and got a run-stopping DT in Sylvester Williams in the 1st round. Williams will add much needed depth to a so-so DL. And while RB wasn’t a big need, getting Montee Ball in the 2nd round was huge, as the health of Willis MacGhaee is always uncertain.
Jacksonville Jaguars – B
Analysis: The Jaguars were sitting pretty. They just kicked their feet up on the table and waiting to see who the Kansas City Chief were going to take at pick #1 between T’s Eric Fisher or Luke Joeckel; because whoever they didn’t take, that was who they were drafting. Lucky for them, they got the better of the two in Joeckel. However, the rest of their draft was so-so. They used four of their eight picks on CB’s. Last time I checked, they were last in sacks. How about spending a pick on a D-Lineman?
Oakland Raiders – B
Analysis: I gave the Raiders a B just on the simple fact that they didn’t draft the guy who had the fastest 40-yard dash time at the Scouting Combine. I liked that they traded out of the #3 pick and were able to get a 2nd rounder for it. They took CB D.J. Hayden, whose story is incredible, so I won’t bash the pick. All I’ll say is that it’s a huge risk and one that if I were a NFL GM, I’m not sure I would take. But I do like their 2nd round selection in T Menelik Watson. He was a 1st round talent in my draft.
Philadelphia Eagles – B
Analysis: The Eagles got one of the top 3 draft choices in the entire draft in T Lane Johnson. He will be an immediate starter and help keep QB Michael Vick upright. Now, I know they got a steal in QB Matt Barkley in the 4th round; however I think they should have taken him a round earlier. They missed out on players in the 4th round that could have made an immediate impact, like ILB Nico Johnson, DE Alex Okafor, C Brian Schwenke, S Shamarko Thomas, C Barrett Jones, or DE William Gholston.
San Diego Chargers – B
Analysis: From a Cal homer prospective, this draft class rocks. I mean, getting WR Keenan Allen and CB Steve Williams are huge gets and will be immediate starters, probably the best players in their draft class. Ok, non-homer view; this is still a solid draft class, but comes with some question marks. 1st round pick T DJ Fluker was rising up draft boards and may have been a slight reach at pick #11, but you have to protect your QB. And drafting ILB Manti Te’o and that circus is a huge risk/reward pick.
Indianapolis Colts – B-
Analysis: When every position on your team, with the exception of QB, is a need position, you really can’t go wrong with who you draft. And what’s amazing is that the Colts made the playoffs last season. I like the fact that they focused on getting guys who play in the trenches, and 1st round pick DE Bjoern Werner fits that mold. He is not afraid to put his hand in the dirt and plays with a continuous motor. 4th round pick C Khaled Holmes is a good grab as well. They are continuing to build.
Kansas City Chiefs – B-
Analysis: It’s hard to give the team with the 1st overall pick anything less than a B, but I just think they could have done better. I would have rather taken T Luke Joeckel over Eric Fisher at pick #1, they didn’t have a 2nd round pick because that became QB Alex Smith so you have to factor that in, and I would have made better use of their two 3rd round picks. A TE and RB were not need picks for the Chiefs. There were better prospects available that could have made a more immediate impact.
New York Jets – B-
Analysis: Normally when a team has two 1st round picks, especially picks within the top 15, it’s an automatic A; however, we are talking about the Jets here. With their two 1st round picks, they took CB Dee Milliner at #9 and DT Sheldon Richardson at #13. I don’t get either pick. I know the Jets traded Darrell Revis so Milliner fills that need, but the pressure that kid will be under isn’t fair. And the Richardson pick, that’s the third year now that the Jets spent a 1st rounder on DL. And Geno!!
Detroit Lions – C+
Analysis: I can’t fault them for using their first two picks in the draft to fill their two most pressing needs, which were DE and CB. They took DE Ziggy Ansah with their 1st round pick and CB Darius Slay with their 2nd round pick. However, these two players are both high risk/high reward guys who have limited experience playing big-time football. With players being available who were just as talented and having more experience, I would have gone with the safer options, as the Lions need to win now.
Houston Texans – C+
Analysis: I just don’t love it. Unlike my counter, The Professor, I’m not as high on WR DeAndre Hopkins as others. I don’t mind them taking a WR, as it was definitely a need and I had them taking a WR with their 1st round pick, but I thought there were better, more talented WR’s to take instead. I would have much rather had WR Justin Hunter, Cordarrelle Patterson, or even Robert Woods. And the rest of their draft is just blah. S D.J. Swearinger could make an impact but the rest is just ok.
New York Giants – C+
Analysis: The Giants are a team that never drafts for need. They always draft to best and most talented player on their draft board and to their credit, its work the past couple of years. Now, whether you agree 1st round pick OG Justin Pugh was the best available player/talent at that pick is up for debate. It’s unclear whether or not Pugh will play OT or OG. And while QB Ryan Nassib is talented, was he really a need in the 4th round? Are you really looking an heir apparent to Eli Manning already?
Tampa Bay Buccaneers – C+
Analysis: I know you have to factor in their 1st round pick was used on CB Darrell Revis, but he’s coming off a season-ending knee injury. And after trading/using your 1st round pick on Revis, you back that up with taking CB Jonathan Banks in the 2nd round? And I know QB Mike Glennon is talented, supposedly, as he was the one who pushed out QB Russell Wilson and made him transfer from NC State to Wisconsin, but what does this pick say about current Bucs QB Josh Freeman?
Cleveland Browns – C
Analysis: I think the Browns could have really turned the page and started with a clean slate with this draft, but they didn’t, or at least I don’t think you do that with DE/OLB Barkevious Mingo. They had already signed DE/OLB Paul Kruger in the offseason from division rival Baltimore Ravens, so with only five draft picks, they could have better used their 1st round pick at a much more need position. This isn’t reflection on Mingo, who I really like as a player; I just think the Browns don’t need him.
Miami Dolphins – C
Analysis: If the Dolphins would have selected T Lane Johnson at pick #3 instead of OLB Dion James, they would have received a whole letter grade higher. They gave up a 2nd round pick in order to move up from pick #12 to pick #3 and take James, who does not fill a need for them and probably wasn’t the best player available either. The better selection would have been Johnson, who accomplishes both. I like their 2nd round pick CB Jamar Taylor, who could be an immediate starter for them.
Seattle Seahawks – C
Analysis: Every year I dump on the Seahawks for having a terrible draft, and every year somehow their picks pan out. They have a method, they have a philosophy, and they stick to it. You have to factor in that their 1st round pick was used on WR Percy Harvin, and like CB Darrell Revis, isn’t the healthiest player. When healthy, he’s a stud. But I don’t understand them drafting RB Christine Michael in the 2nd round when you already have Marshawn Lynch and Robert Turbin. Seems like a wasted pick.
Washington Redskins – C
Analysis: Again, another draft class where you have to factor in a pick for an established player. You have to remember that their 1st round pick was used in last year’s RG3 trade. I like what they did in taking CB David Amerson with their 2nd round pick. If Amerson would have come out in last year’s draft, he would have been a 1st round pick. And I’m not sure taking TE Jordan Reed in the 3rd round was necessary and could have been better used. S Phillip Thomas was a good get for them.
Chicago Bears – C-
Analysis: This is another draft class where I felt that for having so few draft picks, they didn’t make good use of them. I won’t argue that the OL wasn’t a need position for the Bears, but to use their 1st round pick on OG/OT Kyle Long, who is a 2nd rounder, maybe fringe 1st rounder at best, was a reach. Long doesn’t have much football playing experience, having quit the game at one point to pursue a baseball career. I feel there were better talented players available to take and fill a need.
New England Patriots – C-
Analysis: In looking at this draft class, I think this is once again HC Bill Belichick giving the NFL draft pundits the finger and telling the Football World that I’m smarter than you. I look up and down this draft class and I can honestly say that I haven’t heard of one player. I gave them a C- because of the trade they pulled off, trading their 1st round pick to the Minnesota Vikings for a host of middle-round picks and because of reputation, but otherwise this class has the makings of being a stinker.
Buffalo Bills – D
Analysis: I will never give a team an F for a draft grade, but what the Buffalo Bills did this draft almost warrant it. I liked that they traded down in the 1st round to acquire an extra 2nd round pick, but to their 1st round pick on QB EJ Manuel is horrendous. I’ve watched plenty of Manuel and his college career was underwhelming. They could’ve taken a better player at pick #16, I like the pick of WR Robert Woods at pick #41, and probably still have taken Manuel at pick #46. That’s a B+ draft grade right there.
Dallas Cowboys – D
Analysis: This may sound cruel, but I really, really, REALLY hope that the Cowboys never hire a real football GM. If I had it my way, owner Jerry Jones would run the Cowboys draft forever. Hell, I might even stop watching the draft if the Cowboys ever hired a real GM. First off, they traded down 13 spots in the 1st round and only acquired a 3rd rounder. Then they used their 1st round pick on C Travis Frederick. Even Travis Frederick said he didn’t think he was a 1st round pick. Great comedy!!
Really Quick Kentucky Derby Preview –
The 139th Kentucky Derby happens this weekend. 21 horses make up the field for the Run for the Roses and the motto holds true, it is the greatest 2 minutes in sports.
When picking my horses, I take into account two major factors: the jockey and the trainer. But I also look at recent race times on comparable track lengths and turf, where they finished in races leading up to the Derby, and then judge according. But like any other sport, longshots prevail.
For this year’s derby, I like Revolutionary with jockey Calvin Borel and trainer Todd Pletcher. Borel is probably the most recognizable jockey of this era, as he has brought home the roses three times in the last six years. He loves riding along the rails and if Revolutionary can come out clean from the #3 post and be in that first grouping of horses coming around turn 1, he’ll be in great position to win the Roses. Pletcher and Borel have teamed up before. In 2010, this combo went on to win the 2010 Kentucky Derby with horse Super Saver. Revolutionary took home the Louisiana Derby prior to the Derby.
Another horse I like is Vyjack with jockey Garrett Gomez. He is a late-breaking horse which always possesses a threat, but coming out from the #20 post will definitely put him in an early disadvantage. Gomez has a well-accomplished resume featuring Breeder’s Cup wins and winning the Kentucky Oaks, but he will be looking to capture his first Kentucky Derby victory this year. He’s jockeyed the Derby many times, with his best finishing coming in 2009 when he finished second riding Pioneerofthe Nile.
My horse guy really likes Goldencents, ridden by ex-Golden Gate Fields jockey Kevin Krigger, and partly owned by Louisville Cardinals head coach and NCAA Tournament winner, Rick Pitino. Trainer Doug O’Neill will be looking to capture his second Kentucky Derby, as he trained last year’s winner, I’ll Have Another. Goldencents won the Santa Anita Derby, which is a great prep-race leading up to the Derby.
For the tri-fecta, I’ll take Revolutionary with Goldencent and Vyjack.
