Mr. Armchair’s 2013 NFL Preview –

So I’m going to keep this intro short, as I know you all are eagerly anticipating the 2013 NFL Preview.  I worked to get this out a little earlier than normal, as I’m about to take a week hiatus from the sports world (well, as much as I can – still might find time to take in a game or two of baseball and catch NFL Opening Night) as I will be in beautiful, scenic Maui, Hawaii.  By the way, if you are into college football, my preview can be found here College Football Preview.  If you are into baseball, I baseball content can be found on www.baseballhotcorner.com, under Marc Keller.

In looking at the NFL as a whole this season, I found that one thing was very clear: the NFC is loaded with really, really good teams.  Obviously the cream will rise to the top, as teams like the Giants, Falcons, Seahawks, Saints, Packers, and 49ers will still be really good.  But they’ll have to work to get there, as I think even some of the middle-tier teams like the Panthers, Vikings, Redskins, Bears, Bucs, and Rams will be really competitive and make it tough on the top tier teams. 

The AFC on the other hand, there is a clear divide amongst the top and the bottom teams.  The teams that are good, like the Texans, Patriots, Broncos, Bengals, are good.  The teams that are bad, like the Jets, Jaguars, Chargers, Titans, Bills, and Raiders, are really, really bad.  I think the top half of the 2014 NFL Draft will be clearly dominated by AFC teams.   

So with that, I’ll keep the opening paragraph short since this is a lengthy post and I’ll get you to Mr. Armchair’s 2013 NFL Preview. 

NFC East –

New York Giants – 10-6 (Playoff – Division Winner)

Analysis:  It’s not always the prettiest, but Eli Manning wins you ball games; and I can’t see the Giants not making the playoffs two years in a row.  I like the way their offense sets up now with RB David Wilson finally getting the bulk of the carries in the background.  He is a very dynamic runner who if he can get to the edge, he can hit another gear and take off on you.  Their defense will need to improve from last year’s performance in order for the Giants to make the playoffs.  I think they will.   

Washington Redskins – 9-7

Analysis:  I hate picking teams where I’m relying too much on their key players being healthy.  I like Robert Griffin III as a player and think he’ll remain healthy for the majority of the season, but if he has to miss even a couple games because of injuries, that could really throw a wrench into their playoff picture, especially in a tough NFC East division and an even tougher non-divisional schedule.  Their non-divisional schedule includes games against the Packers, Lions, Bears, Broncos, Vikings, 49ers, Chiefs, and Falcons.        

Dallas Cowboys – 8-8

Analysis:  This is a generous 8-8 record I have here for the Cowboys.  It wouldn’t surprise me one bit if they collapsed and went 6-10 or 5-11 this season.  Their defense will be good and Dez Bryant is a star in the making at WR, but for some reason they keep putting their faith in the arm of QB Tony Romo.  Why, I don’t know.  The guy can’t win big football games.  And furthermore, their O-line is terrible.  They can surround Romo with all the weapons he wants, but if he can’t stay upright, what’s the use. 

Philadelphia Eagles – 6-10

Analysis:  After a horrendous 4-12 record last season, the Eagles brought in a new shine toy in the form of a new offense.  New Head Coach Chip Kelly comes over from Oregon and he’s bringing with him his high-speed offense.  All things considered (bad record last season, new head coach, WR Jeremy Maclin got for the season, question marks at QB), a 6-10 record would be a welcomed sight for Philly fans.  Of course, they would admit it, and I am sure anything less than a playoff appearance is a disappointing season, with calling for Kelly to be fired.           

 

NFC North –

Green Bay Packers – 12-4 (Playoff – Division Winner)

Analysis:  The Packers are still one of the most prolific offenses in the NFL and Aaron Rodgers is arguably the best QB in all of football.  Their division may have gotten a little tougher in terms of competition, but they should still be able to rule over them.  The challenge for the Packers will be how they overcome the injuries they sustained during this preseason.  They lose LT Bryan Bulaga, Rodgers’ blind slide protector, for the year, and WR Jordy Nelson is questionable to start the season.  Still, the Packers are too talented not to run away with this division.

         

Chicago Bears – 8-8

Analysis:  All reports out of Bears camp is new Head Coach Marc Trestman’s the real deal.  The offensive guru was hired out of the Canadian Football League to take over for old Head Coach Lovie Smith.  Under Smith, the defense was always stellar, but the offense unimaginative.  The hope is that Trestman can come in and bring some creativity to an offense that features such weapons as QB Jay Cutler, WR Brandon Marshall, and RB Matt Forte, yet still keep the defense intact.  Problem is how do you do that when it lost its heart and soul, ILB Brian Urlacher?   

Detroit Lions – 7-9

Analysis:  This is a make or break year for Head Coach Jim Schwartz.  After finishing last season 4-12, he has to produce a good season in order for him to keep his job.  The players will fight hard for him, but I think in the end, a 7-9 record just won’t save him.  The offense will be much improved with the addition of RB Reggie Bush, although it wasn’t really that bad to begin with.  Everyone criticized QB Matthew Stafford’s low TD numbers from last season (20), but 8 times WR Calvin Johnson was tackled inside the 5-yard line, and 5 times inside the 1.         

Minnesota Vikings – 7-9

Analysis:  The Vikings shocked the football world, finishing last season with a 10-6 record and making the playoffs, all on the knee of RB Adrian Peterson.  Peterson is a true freak of nature, coming back less than a year removed from having ACL knee surgery, lead the NFL in rushing yards, and win the NFL MVP Award.  He’ll likely regress a bit this season, which puts the responsibility to make up that ground in the hands of QB Christian Ponder.  Again, QB Christian Ponder.  So with that regression, I think we’ll see a regression in wins this season.           

NFC South –

New Orleans Saints – 12-4 (Playoff – Division Winner)

Analysis:  Man what a difference a head coach makes.  Head Coach Sean Payton is back from servicing his yearlong suspension due to Bountygate, and he will pick up right where he left off.  The offense will be stellar again, with QB Drew Brees feeling very comfortable and right at home.  Him and Payton can speak to each other in their little own language, using their euphoniums and slang.  It’s quite cute actually.  The defense will surely be a mess, but all new Defensive Coordinator Rex Ryan will ask them to do is get one stop on defense.               

Atlanta Falcons – 11-5 (Playoff – Wild Card)

Analysis:  The band is back together again, and ready to make another run at the Super Bowl.  They were even smart enough to add a lead guitarist to the group in the form of RB Steven Jackson.  Jackson is a huge upgrade over last season’s RB Michael Turner.  Jackson is much quicker and is a better pass-catcher out of the backfield, an element of offense the Falcons weren’t able to utilize with Turner.  And for bonus, they were able to talk the old drummer, TE Tony Gonzalez, to come back for one more tour.  Ok, that’s it for the band references.       

Carolina Panthers – 9-7

Analysis:  I really like the Panthers.  I really want to pick them to make the playoffs, and if they were in any division in the AFC, I would have them in no questions asked.  Their defense is very good, led by NFC Defensive ROY ILB Luke Kuechly and the addition of DT Star Lotulelei, who many thought would be the #1 in this past NLF Draft until a heart condition scared off teams.  But I look at their offense, and while I think QB Cam Newton is special, he'll still unproven, and the weapons around him, as well as his Head Coach Ron Rivera, are inferior.      

Tampa Bay Buccaneers – 7-9

Analysis:  The Bucs beefed up their defense with the additions of CB Darrell Revis and FS Dashon Goldson.  But this team will only go as far as their QB, Josh Freeman, will take them.  And unfortunately, I don't think it's as far as Bucs fans will hope.  He has no shortage of weapons around him however to succeed, as they find their RB for the next 10 seasons in Doug Martin.  Plus, having to play the Saints twice, Falcons twice, Panthers twice, 49ers, Seahawks, and Patriots doesn't exactly make for an easy road to the playoffs.              

NFC West –

San Francisco 49ers – 13-3 (Playoff – Division Winner)

Analysis:  WARNING!!!  WARNING!!! HOMER ANALYSIS COMING!!! HOMER ANALYSIS COMING!!!  You are going to think I'm crazy, but I actually feel like I'm short-changing the 49ers here by picking them to ONLY have a record of 13-3.  This team is going to be awesome!  I really had to search hard for potential losses on their schedule in conjunction with the caliber of team I think the 49ers are.  QB Colin Kaepernick will light up the NFL now that he is finally coming into the season as the starter and getting starters reps.  CANT......WAIT!       

Seattle Seahawks – 12-4 (Playoff – Wild Card)

Analysis:  Not going to lie to you, I hate Seattle.  This is a residual feeling I have from two incidents: one being last December when I went up to Seattle for the Seahawks / 49ers games and their stupid, annoying fans thinking they're something, and two being Chris Hansen, Steve Ballmer, the Norstrom Family, and the city of Seattle trying to steal my Sacramento Kings away from my city.  Thankfully, the city of Seattle lost in their bid of thievery for the Kings, and I hope the Seahawks find themselves in the same fate.  Rant over; team is good; that is all.      

St. Louis Rams – 8-8

Analysis:  Is this finally going to be the year that QB Sam Bradford starts living up to the hype and #1 pick status?  I actually think it is; and I actually think the Rams will be good, pretty, pretty good.  I like what they have on offense at WR with rookie Tavon Austin and second year players Chris Givens and Brian Quick.  And like any Head Coach Jeff Fisher team, you know the defense will be good as well.  Remember, the Rams still have all those draft picks they're getting from the Redskins in the RG3 trade, so they are going to be here to stay.     

Arizona Cardinals – 4-12

Analysis:  A lot of Cardinals fans want to blame the stink of last season solely on the play of the QB, but I think it goes beyond that, and nothing was solved this offseason.  Their O-line is still dreadful, the RB position is still unsettled, and I still have questions about the QB situation.  Rookie OG Jonathan Cooper is a start to fixing the O-line, but he can't play the other 4 positions all at once, RB Rashard Mendenhall coming over from the Steelers is on his last leg, and QB Carson Palmer is well...Carson Palmer.           

AFC East –

New England – 10-6 (Playoff – Division Winner)

Analysis:  Ok, I know QB Tom Brady is Tom Brady and Head Coach Bill Bellichick is Bill Bellichick, but I think the Patriots will have somewhat of a down season.  Yeah they’ll go 10-6 and make the playoffs, but it’s because they play in a weak division where you get to play the Dolphins, Bills, and Jets each twice.  Throw in winnable games against the Bucs, Steelers, Panthers, Browns, and Ravens, and I think you can find 10 wins in their schedule because, Brady is still Brady and Bellichick is still Bellichick.  But let’s be honest, I’m just rooting for Tebow.         

Buffalo Bills – 5-11

Analysis:  I’ve learned my lesson last season when I picked the Bills to finish with a winning record and make the playoffs.  Not making that same mistake this time.  For as much as I like RB C.J Spiller, they are way too young to make a run at it this year.  I like the potential they have though in LT Cordy Glenn, WR T.J. Graham, DT Marcell Dareus, CB Stephon Gilmore, and even QB E.J. Manuel.  I have a feel that in about 2-3 years, we’ll be having the same conversation we were last season about the Bill being a potential playoff team.      

Miami Dolphins – 5-11

Analysis:  This is a “pick-to-click” team for people this year, but not for me.  I think if everything goes right for them, they can put together a good season.  I’m just not a believer in QB Ryan Tannehill yet.  I think he needs another season under center before I can buy into him being a playoff caliber QB in the NFL.  But at least you can’t fault the Dolphins for trying.  They went out this offseason and spent big money on free agent WR Mike Wallace in order to move along the maturation progress of Tannehill.  Problem is, I don’t think Wallace helps all that much.         

New York Jets – 3-13

Analysis:  The Jets are a complete mess, sideshow, freak show, circus, whatever adjective you want to use to describe the type of team they are going to be this season.  And most of their drama is going to stem from two places: Head Coach Rex Ryan, and QB Mark Sanchez.  I think Ryan is fired by week 11 of the NFL season and rookie QB Geno Smith will displace Sanchez by week 5 of the season.  And there is a 3-1 odds bet that by week 3 of the season, we’ll see another repeat of the “butt fumble”.       

AFC North –

Cincinnati Bengals – 11-5 (Playoff – Division Winner)

Analysis:  Say what you may, but I’ve been watching HBO’s Hard Knock this season, and I’ve become a believer in the Bengals.  There is a whole lot to like about them.  They were already a playoff team last season, so it’s not like I’m making a bold call here.  But my bold call is that I think they take that next step and win a playoff game or two.  I think the combo of QB Andy Dalton and WR A.J. Green will be that much better, I like the addition of rookie RB Giovani Bernard into the backfield mix, and rookie TE Tyler Eifert is another goal-line option.

Pittsburgh Steelers – 9-7

Analysis:  As much as I agree that there is probably no other coach in the NFL that gets more out of his players than Steelers Head Coach Mike Tomlin, I don’t think this is the year he gets THAT much out of them.  I worry about how effect QB Ben Rothlishberger will be without WR Mike Wallace (left via free agency), and rookie RB Le’Von Bell (injury).  Their only saving grace could be that their schedule is relatively soft, with games against the Titans, Bears, Vikings, Jets, Raiders, Bills, Lions, Dolphins, and division rivals, Browns and Ravens.       

Cleveland Browns – 7-9

Analysis:  If the Panthers are my NFC team I like, the Browns are my AFC team.  I think the Browns can come up and bite teams if they aren’t playing much attention to them.  I know a lot is riding on the arm of QB Brandon Weeden, and it’s a lot to ask of him to carry the Browns to at least 7 wins and possibly beyond.  But there is a lot to like about the Browns.  Their defense is good, the O-line is better than average, led by a couple of Cal Bears Alex Mack and Mitchell Schwarts, and they can really open up some holes for RB Trent Richardson.       

Baltimore Ravens – 6-10

Analysis:  So everyone been pooping on QB Joe Flacco for years, saying he’s overrated and a hack QB, and then all of a sudden he has a great three-game stretch, lucks into a Super Bowl victory (yeah, I just said that), and now is the greatest, and highest paid, QB in the NFL?  Please!  Additionally, they lost their heart-and-soul in ILB Ray Lewis, and to a lesser extent, FS Ed Reed.  They also traded away WR Anquan Boldin (Flacco’s security blanket), lost TE Dennis Pitta to a season-ending injury, and let other pieces of their defense leave via free agency.    

AFC South –

Indianapolis Colts – 11-5 (Playoff – Division Winner)

Analysis:  For being such a Cal Football homer, I really like what QB Andrew Luck brings to the table.  I still believe that he will be the greatest college QB of my generation, like John Elway was to the generation before me.  But it’s not just Luck for my reasoning of having the Colts back in the playoffs and as division winners over the Texans.  I think the O-line is much better this season with the addition of RT Gosder Cherilus, and the defense is much improved with the additions of DL Ricky Jean Francois, LB Erik Walden, DB’s Greg Toler and LaRon Landry.        

Houston Texans – 10-6 (Playoff – Wild Card)

Analysis:  I know I’m in the minority by not having the Texans with at least 11 wins and winning the division.  But their schedule is relatively tough, having to play the 49ers, Seahawks, Rams, Chiefs, Broncos, Patriots, Ravens, plus the Colts twice.  And frankly, I don’t think QB Matt Schaub will ever take them where they want to god; and with every year they wait for him, that’s other year off the NFL life span of WR Andre Johnson and RB Arian Foster.  If Schaub and Head Coach Gary Kubiak can’t get it done, I expect changes to be made next offseaon.

Tennessee Titans – 5-11

Analysis:  I’m not sure, but is the ABP still out for a RB by the name of Chris Johnson, also known as or may go by the alias of CJ2K?  I’m just checking.  Can someone report back to me if they find him?  Ok, I kid.  But in today’s NFL, 1200 yards and 6 TD’s is hardly a great season, especially with as much hype and smack talk that follows Johnson.  The O-line will be improved somewhat with rookie OG Chance Warmack, so that may boost Johnson’s stat line.  But I don’t think Johnson will ever live down his CJ2K comment.            

Jacksonville Jaguars – 3-13

Analysis:  You can generally tie a team’s success around the play of their QB, and playing QB this year for the Jaguars will either be Blaine Gabbert or Chad Henne.  I think that says it all.  New Head Coach Gus Bradley really has a challenge on his hands trying to turn this team around.  Not only are the Jaguars in full rebuild mode, but also their future in Jacksonville is also up in the air as it’s becoming more and more likely we will see an NFL team back in Los Angeles in the near future.  At least they’ll have the NFL Red Zone Channel playing on their big screen scoreboard. 

AFC West –

Denver Broncos – 13-3 (Playoff – Division Winner)

Analysis:  It seems like the rich get richer when it comes to the Broncos.  We all know about the big free agent addition of WR Wes Welker from the Patriots, but they also needed other key pieces such as CB Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie and also drafting two potential starters in DT Sylvester Williams and RB Montee Ball.  Even despite the loss of OLB Von Miller for the first 6 games, all 6 are very winnable without him.  They play the Ravens, Giants, Raiders, Eagles, Cowboys, and Jaguars.  They can very easily go 6-0 or 5-1 during that stretch.         

Kansas City Chiefs – 10-6 (Playoff – Wild Card)

Analysis:  How can a team with the worst record in the NFL last season turn it around and make the playoffs so quickly?  Well, get yourself the #1 draft pick, which they did and used it wisely on OT Eric Fisher.  Get yourself a proven, winning head coach, which they did in Andy Reid.  And go out and get yourself a proven, winning QB, which they did in Alex Smith.  Better blocking will lead to more time to pass and more holes to run through, couple that with better play-calling, and it’s a recipe for scoring more points, which leads to more wins.  It’s that simple.

San Diego Chargers – 3-13

Analysis:  I think this season spells the end of the QB Phillip Rivers era in San Diego.  For the last couple of seasons now we have witness an overall decline in the play of the Chargers, starting with Rivers, moving on down to RB Ryan Matthews, no WR to throw the ball too, Antonio Gates is about a year or two away from calling it quits, and the defense is poorest at best.  After this season, the Chargers will be is full-blown rebuild mode and if the draft pick is high enough, which it should be, they can start by maybe drafting a franchise QB in next year’s draft. 

Oakland Raiders – 2-14

Analysis:  I can’t even begin to describe to you how bad the Raiders are going to be this season.  I have the Raiders going 2-14, and I think I’m being generous with this prediction.  If they don’t win their week 2 game against the Jaguars, their week 14 matchup against the Jets in NY, or one of the two games against the Chargers, they could quiet possibly challenge the Lions record of finishing a season 0-16.  There is a saying, “Rome wasn’t built in a day.”  I think right now Raiders fans will settle for Modesto, CA (no offense to those from Modesto, CA).    

Awards

MVP – Peyton Manning, QB Denver Broncos

Offensive Player of the Year – Colin Kaepernick, QB San Francisco 49ers

Defensive Player of the Year – Jerod Mayo, LB New England Patriots

Offensive Rookie of the Year – Eddie Lacy, RB Green Bay Packers

Defensive Rookie of the Year – Star Lotulelei, DT Carolina Panthers

Head Coach of the Year – Andy Reid, Kansas City Chiefs

Playoff Teams

NFC – Giants, Packers, Saints, Falcons (wild card), 49ers, Seahawks (wild card)

AFC – Patriots, Bengals, Colts, Texans (wild card), Broncos, Chiefs (wild card)

Championship Games

NFC – 49ers over Falcons

AFC – Broncos over Bengals

Super Bowl

49ers over Broncos