Mr. Armchair’s 2012 MLB Preview –

Spring is finally here, and that means another season of Major League Baseball is upon us. Does it get any better than this? I am a firm believer that Opening Day of the Baseball season should be installed as a national holiday, and everyone should be giving the day off to take in all of the games being played. Hell, even the President makes time to throw out a ceremonial first pitch for some team. Anyways, nothing is better than the smell of a freshly cut baseball field, and with that sweet aroma in the air, it reminds me that it is time to unleash Mr. Armchair’s 2012 Major League Baseball Preview.


National League –

*Playoff Team

NL East –

*Phillies (95-67) – Having arguably the best starting rotation in the baseball will take you a long way. Their pitching numbers were gaudy last season: 1^st in ERA (3.02), 1^st in Quality Starts (108), 1^st in WHIP (1.17), and 3^rd in Batting Average allowed (.240). Major questions still remain: how will the injury to Ryan Howard affect to team and how will the health of Chase Utley hold up? I think the Phillies make the playoffs on their starting pitching alone and winning the division, but the World Series?

*Braves (90-72) – The Atlanta Braves are a solid ballclub, and everyone always seem to count them out every year. I have to believe that Jason Heyward, who is finally healthy and worked with Chipper Jones all offseason on his swinging mechanics, will have a bounce back season and will see his numbers returns to where they were when he won the ROY award. That, along with solid seasons from Dan Uggla and Brian McCann, will win the Braves games. Watch out for Mike Minor as well in the rotation. 

Nationals (87-75) – This is my dark horse team for the Nation League. The Nationals are trending in the right direction. Acquiring Gio Gonzalez from the A’s in the offseason to be there third starter was a big get for them. I expect big offensive seasons from young players Michael Morse, Wilson Ramos, and Danny Espinosa. I also expect Ryan Zimmerman and Jayson Werth to have bounce back seasons as well. Bottom line: this team will compete and compete hard for a playoff spot. Oh yeah, Strasburg is healthy. 

Marlins (84-78) – Despite all of their high-priced purchases this offseason, I can’t see the Marlins finishing ahead of the Nationals, Braves, and Phillies. Now, if they won the Albert Pujols sweepstakes? The fact is they will be better, they probably will finish with a winning record; but because of the division they play in, they won’t see the playoffs this season. Shortstop Jose Reyes will be a solid player for them and moving Hanley Ramirez to third base will give them the best left side of the infield in baseball.  

Mets (75-87) – This team won’t be as bad as everyone thinks. They still have David Wright playing third base for them and I like their young players Ike Davis and Lucas Duda. Their big question mark is their starting pitching, starting with Johan Santana and his year-long injury. Mike Pelfrey has been inconsistent since becoming a full-time starter, RA Dickey is a knuckleballer, and they have two young prospects in Jonathan Niese and Dillon Gee, who actually both had fairly good seasons last year. 

NL Central –

*Cardinals (89-73) – Call me crazy, but I don’t think the Cards fall off too far from their wins mark of last year (90-72) despite losing their franchises best player of all-time, Albert Pujols. This is still a very good Cardinals team, with plenty of offensive firepower in Matt Holliday, Lance Berkman, and Carlos Beltran. Expect David Freese to build on his incredible World Series performance and look for Jon Jay to have a solid year now that he is playing full-time. Plus, their pitching staff is getting Adam Wainwright back. 

Reds (87-75) – With Albert Pujols and Prince Fielder having left the division and National League, Joey Votto is now the lone man at first base. He is arguably one of the top 3 players in the National League, and is primed to have another MVP type season. But there are other players on this club that are All-Star caliber. Brandon Phillips may be the best second baseman in the National League and Jay Bruce led the team in homers last season. The addition of Mat Latos finally gives the Reds an ace starting pitcher. 

Brewers (85-77) – You can’t ignore with what happened to this ballclub an the offseason with regards to Ryan Braun and his steroid allegations. It will be a distraction surrounding the team and he will hear junk from opposing fans everywhere he goes. And with any MVP type-season, there will be a natural deflation in his overall numbers. Couple that with the loss of Prince Fielder and I can’t see the Brewers making that strong of a push for the playoffs. They’ll need to ride their pitching to stay in the hunt. 

Pirates (75-87) – This is another team in the National League that I think will have a better season than most expect. They have a great young player in center fielder Andrew McCutchen that they are building around, and they are surrounding him with other good, young hitters like Niel Walker, Garrett Jones, and Jose Tabata. They also have two young starting pitchers in James McDonald and Jeff Karstens, who are coming off solid seasons. Joel Hanrahan is establishing himself as a shutdown closer as well. 

Cubs (69-93) – Oh man!!! It’s going to be a long year for Cubs fans. After looking at their roster, Theo Epstein is going to have his work cut out for him if he ever plans on bringing Cubs Nation a World Series title. Outside of shortstop Starling Castro, I don’t see how the Cubs are going to get any offensive production. And outside of Matt Garza in the starting rotation, who else will pitch well enough to win games? Ryan Dempster? Travis Wood? Mark Prior 2003 ain’t walking through those doors, Cubs fan. 

Astros – (58-104) – I think some Triple-A baseball teams could beat the Astros on a consistent basis. This team is whack!!! They are starting two underachieving prospects in Jed Lowrie and Jordan Schafer, players that never lived up to their expectations with their original teams but the Astros are hoping a “change is scenery” will help revitalize their career. They do have a young starting pitcher in Bud Norris, who is coming along nicely, although you would never know it judging by his win-loss record. 

NL West –

*Giants (91-71) – Yes, I am a homer, and I’m not paid to be objective. The Giants will win this division and make the playoffs. With our starting rotation and the return of Buster Posey, we will have the pitching-to-run support needed to win ballgames. Plus, the addition of Melky Cabrera (who was killing it in Spring Training) and Brandon Belt having a full-season under his belt (no pun intended), should help provide the offensive run-support needed to complement our superior starting pitching and bullpen. 

*Diamondbacks (89-73) – This is the only team in the division that will give the Giants a run for the division title. Yes, I know they won the division last year. Yes, I know they have MVP candidate Justin Upton. Yes, I know they have a plethora of young prospects. I’m not buying them this year. Last season, they had career years from players who out-played the back of their baseball card and things just fell right for them. I’m also not buying Trevor Cahill. His velocity is down and the ball flies in AZ. 

Dodgers (81-81) – It’s hard to believe that a team with the reigning CY Award winner (Clayton Kershaw) and maybe the best player in the National League (Matt Kemp) can only finish with a .500 record. This team does have some nice pieces on offense in Andre Ethier and Dee Gordon – and the back end of their bullpen can be solid with Javy Guerra, and Kenley Jansen – but I think they are still lacking another power hitter and 4^th and 5^th starting pitchers. Having an owner might help their cause as well. 

Rockies (74-88) – I’m convinced that the only way the Rockies will ever make the playoffs again is if they absolutely just load up on hitting and have everyone in their starting lineup batting over .265 with over 15 Hr’s and 70 RBI’s. And judging by their offseason acquisitions, it looks likes they are trying to do that. They acquired Ramon Hernandez, Marco Scutaro, Casey Blake, and Michael Cuddyer; yet their starting pitcher staff: Jhoulys Chacin, Jeremy Guthrie, Guillermo Moscoso, Tyler Chatwood, and Drew Pomeranz. 

Padres (67-95) – Well, at least I don’t have them losing more than 100 games. Their biggest offseason lose may be GM Jed Hoyer, who left the Padres to go work for Theo Epstein and the Cubs. This team, under Jed, had some young, promising talent. The new regime seems to be blowing up the same team they already blew up (not sure if that’s even possible). I do think Cameron Maybin and Chase Headley are players in this league and Cory Lueke will transition into a solid starting pitcher. 

American League –

*Playoff Team

AL East – 

*Yankees (96-66) – Is this the year that we count out the Yankees and see them have a losing season, not win the division, and not make the playoffs? Yeah, right!! The Yankees look stronger than last year and they only happen to win 97 games. I think the addition of Michael Pineda and the subtraction of AJ Burnett only bolsters their starting pitching rotation. Enter Sandman (Mo Rivera) still throws for a microscopic ERA with his one pitch (the cutter), and Robby Cano might win the AL MVP this season. 

*Rays (94-68) – You know, I’m still having a hard time figuring out Evan Longoria and what kind of player he is. In 2010, he hit .294 with 22 HR’s and almost 1:2 walk-to-strike out ratio. In 2011, he hits .244, but with 31 HR’s and an almost 1:1 walk-to-strike out ratio. I guess we are all just waiting for him to put it all together. Nevertheless, what makes the Rays this good is their starting pitcher. All young, all live-arms, and all under team control for a long time. Their best pitcher may be prospect Matt Moore. 

Red Sox (91-71) – Listen, I know someone had to be blamed for the meltdown that occurred last season with the Bo Sox, but I think it’s going to take a season or two before they overcome the loss of Terry Francona and Theo Epstein. I know they still have A-Gonzo, Pedroia, Youk, Ellsbury, and hopefully a bounce back season from Carl Crawford. They win a lot of games just because of talent, but if a manager had no effect on a team, the Oakland A’s would have won a playoff series in the early 2000’s. 

Blue Jays (87-75) – This is my dark horse team for the American League. If everything breaks right for the Blue Jays, they may actually finish ahead of the Bo Sox. I like their young prospects in Brett Lawrie and J.P. Arencibia. Jose Bautista can be penciled in for 40 HR’s again and with Kelly Johnson batting third ahead of him, Johnson will get plenty of pitches to hit and should see a spike in his numbers. Their starting rotation is solid and Sergio Santos, who they acquired for the White Sox, is a good closer. 

Orioles (68-94) – You know, on paper, this Orioles team should be competitive. I’ve always been a Nick Markakis guy, even though he can’t hit a homer. He bats at a decent clip (batting average) and plays a good defensive right field. Catcher Matt Wieters and center fielder Adam Jones are finally turning the corner and living up to the hype that followed them when coming up through the ranks. But their starting pitching staff is just bad and I can see the Orioles losing a lot of games by a score of 9-7 or 10-8. 

AL Central – 

*Tigers (104–58) – When I do the math: Miguel Cabrera, plus Prince Fielder, plus Justin Verlander, equals 104 wins. You can’t be serious, right? Miguel Cabrera has batted under .320 only twice in his whole career, and Prince Fielder has had 30 or more HR’s in the last 5 season; and these two are going to go 3-4 in the lineup? Add catcher Alex Avila and an underrated Delmon Young and it just becomes not even funny. Oh yeah, their closer, Jose Valverde, didn’t blow a save last season. 

Twins (83-79) – Talk about a team that is going to have to manufacture runs. There is not a whole lot of poop on this team. Depending on how you stack it, they will probably have the fastest 1-2 at the top of the order in Denard Span and Ben Revere. Follow that up with a healthy Joe Mauer, Justin Morneau, and Josh Willingham; and this team just might score enough runs to finish over .500. The hindrance to the Twins finishing the season over .500, having Carl Pavano as your number one starting pitcher. 

Royals (81-81) – Could this finally be the year that the Royals finish a season with a .500 or better record? Well, it’s as good as any year for them to do so. They have two power-horses at the corner infield positions with third baseman Mike Moustakus and first baseman Eric Hosmer. They have a ton of young, live arms in the backend of their bullpen as well. Billy Butler is turning into David Ortiz light (literally), and with decent starting pitching, I could see the Royals finally clipping the .500 benchmark. 

White Sox (74-88) – A manager with no managerial experience doesn’t bode well for the First Team (President Obama’s favorite baseball team). They have made some questionable offseason moves (like trading away Sergio Santos for a mid-level prospect), and are relying heavily on bounce back years from under-performing veterans (Alex Rios, Adam Dunn). Hopefully they can get some production from a couple of prospects in Brent Morel and Alejandro De Aza and post a decent record in a bad division. 

Indians (72-90) – This team is going to struggle. They’ll have some rough years while they develop their prospects Jason Kipnis, Michael Brantley, and Lonnie Chisenhall, all are projected to become good players; but in the meantime, they will have to rely on the bats of right fielder Shin-Soo Choo, shortstop Asdrubal Cabrera, and struggler Carlos Santana. All three are expected to have good years for the Indians. They do have Ubaldo Jimenez and Justin Masterson to provide them with some quality starts. 

AL West – 

*Angels (101-61) – Talk about winning the baseball offseason: only $254 million for Albert Pujols, only $77 million for C.J. Wilson; just putting a small dent into the pocketbook of owner Artie Moreno. You think he wants to win a World Series soon? But these are actually good baseball moves. Some question giving a 32 year old Pujols a 10-year deal, but most likely he will be DH’ing at the back end of his contract and still be a productive hitter. And adding Wilson as your 3^rd starter isn’t a bad signing either. 

*Rangers (98-64) – This team will probably win over 90 games, make the playoffs, and push the Angels for the division title; but I see some question marks with this team. What kind of production are you going to get from the starting rotation? Are they really going to rely on Joe Nathan, who is 38 years old and coming off a second Tommy John surgery, to close out games? Is Yu Darvish going to be Daisuke Matsuzaka 2008 or Hideki Irabu 1997? For my friend, The Professors, I hope it works out for his sake. 

Mariners (71-91) – This team has some young hitters in Dustin Ackely, Justin Smoak, Mike Carp, and Jesus Montero. And I finally, FINALLY, may get to see my premonition about Ichiro come true. He will reportedly hit third in the batting order, and I’ve always maintained that Ichiro is such a great hitter that if he wanted to, he could hit over 25 HR’s in a season. The most he’s ever hit in a season is 15 and it’s a little late in his career to be doing this, but I want to see him try. Oh, and they still have Felix Hernandez. 

A’s (65-97) – Hey, it’s not the worst record in baseball for the season. In my opinion, if the A’s lose less than 100 games this season, they should consider that a success. I can’t pile-on them too much; they did at least spend money this offseason on players. They spent $36 million on 26-year old (allegedly) Cuban ball player named Yoenis Cespedes, and they went out and signed Big Fat Bartolo Colon to be their number two starter. Great Moves!! Wait, San Jose or Sacramento would be great moves. 

Baseball Playoff Predictions –

AL Division Winners:

AL East – Yankees

AL Central – Tigers

AL West – Angels

Wild Card Teams – Rays, Rangers 

NL Division Winners:

NL East – Phillies

NL Central – Cardinals

NL West – Giants

Wild Card Teams – Braves, Diamondbacks 

World Series Prediction:

Tigers over Phillies 

Baseball Awards –

AL MVP – Miguel Cabrera, 1B Tigers

NL MVP – Joey Votto, 1B Reds

AL CY Young – Dan Haren, SP Angels

NL CY Young – Cole Hamel, SP Phillies

AL Rookie of the Year – Yu Darvish, SP Rangers

NL Rookie of the Year – Bryce Harper, OF Nationals

AL Manager of the Year – Jim Leyland, Detroit Tigers

NL Manager of the Year – Davey Johnson, Washington Nationals 

Mr. Armchair Speaking –

Manningmania Trumps Tebowmania!!!! –

The football world just flew off its axis!!! The soap opera has ended!!! The drama is over!!! Peyton Manning is heading to the Denver Broncos!!! Reportedly, the deal will be around 5-years, $96 million. But wait, the Denver Broncos already have a starting QB? They have Tim Tebow!!! Reportedly, Tim Tebow is now on the trading block and if a deal can’t be reached with a trading partner; then the Broncos will outright release him. Thanks for playing!!! 

There are several angles to the Peyton Manning, Tebowmania soap opera that we should all look at. The Broncos’ brass, largely influenced by GM John Elway, was never comfortable with Tebow as their franchise starting QB, but knew they could never get rid of or bench him because of the strong support and following of Tebow Nation. There would be a huge backlash from Broncos fans and Tebow Nation if they ever did so. And while John Elway gave Tebow a vote of confidence by saying that he “earned the right” to be the Broncos starting QB heading into training camp next season, they were always looking for an out. One landed in their laps in Peyton Manning. What better way of ridding themselves of Tebow as their starting QB than by bringing in Peyton Manning. How could anyone argue with this?  

      

I’ll admit I’m a Tim Tebow fan and apologist. Despite his tremendous ups and his equally tremendous downs, I’ve said on this forum that I think Tebow will be a good QB in the NFL and have a very successful career when he finally figures it out and puts his skill-set all together. There is no denying the fact that his will to succeed and win, along with his uncanny self-belief, compensate for his misgivings, and I am confident that he will eventually overcome those.  Peyton Manning however, is one of my favorite football players in the game today; and when you have an opportunity to add a QB who is top 10, if not top 5, of all-time – I repeat top 10 or top 5 of all-time - you cannot pass that up. For all the love Bronco Nation has for Tim Tebow, they should be jumping out of their saddles and welcoming Peyton with open arms and should consider themselves lucky to have him as their QB. This is a great football move for the Denver Broncos. This is of course barring Peyton checks out medically, but I’m going to assume that if you are going to give him $90 mill+, he checks out medically.  

     

It was no secret that many teams inquired and flirted with the idea of bringing in Peyton Manning to be their starting QB. You had the Arizona Cardinals, Washington Redskins, Seattle Seahawks, Miami Dolphins, New York Jet;, but in the end, only three teams emerge as the favorites: Tennessee Titans, San Francisco 49ers, and the Denver Broncos. Let’s see what each team had to offer Peyton. 

Tennessee Titans – Personally, this is where I thought Peyton Manning would land. There is no question that the State of Tennessee has a love affair with Peyton Manning. He played his collegiate ball here; however it must be noted that he never beat their rival, the Florida Gators, and never won a National Championship or Heisman Trophy. But Peyton has a legacy in Tennessee, and a street named after him in Knoxville. He could go back there, play out his remaining years of football in Nashville, and then probably run for Governor if he wanted too. But if winning and getting to the Super Bowl are Peyton’s biggest priorities, than the Titans are the farthest team he should consider of the three. Despite being offered a “contract for life,” whatever that means, the Titans have very little to offer Peyton, football wise. Their offensive line is horrid at run-blocking, ranking 31^st in the NFL at rushing offense, and that is with CJ2K as their starting RB. They will however be getting Kenny Britt back at WR after missing the year with a knee injury. Their defense was average at best and they just lost their best CB in Cortland Finnegan to free agency. I think the issue here for Peyton was that the Titans play in the same division as his old team, the Indianapolis Colts, and I think Peyton didn’t want to have to go back to Indy every year to face them and their new QB and his replacement, Andrew Luck. Peyton doesn’t seem like the type of guy who wants to “stick it” to his old organization. 

 

San Francisco 49ers – Oh, what could have been!!! If winning and getting to the Super Bowl were Peyton’s highest priorities, than signing with the 49ers should have been a no-brainer for Peyton. The 49ers were a “punt return fumble off a knee” away from making the Super Bowl last season. If the 49ers could have converted at least one 3^rd down conversion (I don’t count the one they did converted, since it came on the last play of the game), they could have been playing in the Super Bowl last season. The 49ers are bringing back every starter on a Super Bowl caliber defense, ranked #1 in the NFL; plus they went out and added Randy Moss and Mario Manningham to their WR core. Peyton would have had plenty of weapons in his arsenal to throw too and an offensive line that could protect him. What the issue here was power. Harbaugh calls the plays, Harbaugh schemes the offensive game plan, its Harbaugh’s show. And as 49er fans, we are ok with this. As the saying goes, “IN HARBAURGH WE TRUST!” I don’t think Peyton wanted to operate in that type of system. He likes to call the plays at the line of scrimmage while assessing and reading the defensive scheme pre-snap. Additionally, I don’t think Peyton wanted to deal with the pressure and expectations of winning a Super Bowl right away, especially after having missed an entire season with his neck injury. If Peyton would have signed with the 49ers and they didn’t make or win the Super Bowl, it would have been seen as a disappointment and major second guessing would then occur. That is one headache I think Peyton didn’t want to have to deal with.  

                  

Denver Broncos – The winner of the Peyton Manning sweepstakes. The Denver Broncos had an amazing run that stretched from the middle of the season when they finally came to their senses and started Tim Tebow over Kyle Orton, lasted thru a playoff run at the end of the season, culminated with a miraculous playoff win against the Pittsburgh Steelers, and ended with a blowout lost to the New England Patriots. There was much debate about who should be credited with the Broncos unforgettable season last year. The obvious choice would be Tebowmania, since he was the QB; but let’s not forget that the Broncos defense played out of their minds during that stretch run. Also, Head Coach John Fox completely re-tooled his offense on the fly to accommodate Tebow. While that offense worked, many thought it couldn’t stand the test of time. With Peyton now as his QB, Coach Fox can run the pro-style offense he wants to run, and he gets to do it with Peyton Manning. But does Peyton Manning make them a Super Bowl contender instantly? They play in a weak AFC West division that, even with Tebow as their QB, the Broncos probably would have won. But in order to make the jump to be in the discussion of being a Super Bowl caliber team, the Broncos will have to fix the glaring holes they have at WR and on defense. The Broncos will need to address getting Peyton another target at WR and they also need a run-stopping DT. They could also use help in the secondary by adding another CB. We’ll have to wait and see what comes next via free agency and the draft. One thing is for sure, the Broncos just became that much more attractive to play for if you are a free agent, and they aren’t that far from Super Bowl contention. 

Time will tell whether or not this was the right direction to go in for the Denver Broncos. It will take some time for Bronco Nation and Tebow Nation to get use to the fact that he will not be the Broncos starting QB and it’s very possible that he won’t be a starting QB for any team this coming season. The Broncos now have a massive PR situation that they will need to defuse and there will be somewhat of a revolt against the Broncos from their own fans and Tebow supporters, but as they say, “winning cures all.” But if the Broncos were truly never committed to Tebowmania as their QB, the only another QB out there right now who could come in and make this transition for John Elway and the Broncos, with minimal PR damage, is Peyton Manning. Manningmania trumps Tebowmania!!!

Mr. Armchair Speaking –

Let the Madness Begin!!!

Well, it’s that time of year again. And I say this with the utmost excitement and enthusiasm that I can muster. Its March Madness time, baby!!! Break out your brackets and fine-tip sharpie; because we have some brackets to fill out. 

There are only a few things in sports as great as the NCAA March Madness Tournament: The Super Bowl, the NFL Draft, Opening Day of the Baseball season, and the World Series. March Madness is on that same par. Last year, a study conducted by the consulting firm Challenger, Gray, and Christmas, estimated a total of $192 million is lost in worker productivity do to the first two rounds (I know, technically the play-in games are the first round, but I can’t justify calling those games the first round) of the NCAA Tournament being on a Thursday and Friday, March 15^th and 16^th. Needless to say, I have my hand up as an unproductive worker and contributing to the millions of dollars lost during those two days. Well worth the price of admission in my opinion!

Typically, I do five “mock” brackets before settling on one official “Sheet of Integrity” (I know, stolen from ESPN Mike and Mike). So without further ado, here is Mr. Armchair’s Official NCAA March Madness Tournament Bracket. Dissect it at your pleasure.

West Region –

Second Round –

Michigan St. (1) v. LIU Brooklyn (16) – 1 v. 16 seed. Need I say more?

Memphis (8) v. Saint Louis (9) – Memphis always has talented players that can play at the next level. Can’t say the same for St. Louis.

New Mexico (5) v. Long Beach St. (12) – LBS has some very good wins on their record and for as much as I want to pick them, I’m going with New Mexico. Drew Gorden should dominate inside the paint.

Louisville (4) v. Davidson (13) – I have no faith in Louisville this season and I think Peyton Siva is overrated. I think Davidson comes up and nabs Louisville here in what is another poor tourney for them.

Murray St. (6) v. Colorado St. (11) – How does a team go 30-1 and get a 6^th seed? I don’t care what conference you play in.

Marquette (3) v. BYU (14) – Marquette surprising had a very good season in the Big East this year. Their guards are really good and will play tough defense against you.

Florida (7) v. Virginia (10) – Florida finished third in a tough SEC Conference and gave Kentucky all they had in the SEC tourney. I’m scared of Mike Scott of Virginia going off, but I think Florida edges them out here.

Missouri (2) v. Norfolk State (15) – Another pencil in game. 

Third Round –

Michigan St. (1) v. Memphis (8) – This will be a closer game than people will realize, but I think Draymond Green and Michigan St. are playing too well of late to cough this one up.

New Mexico (5) v. Davidson (13) – New Mexico and Drew Gorden are too good in the paint and play too good of defense not be beat Davidson.

Murray St. (6) v. Marquette (3) – I’m going with the mid-major in this matchup. Marquette just doesn’t have any size and I believe in Murray St.'s 30-1 record.

Florida (10) v. Missouri (2) – Missouri will run Florida off the court; with very little defense being played in this matchup. Marcus Denmon should be fully recovered from his sprain ankle. 

Sweet Sixteen –

Michigan St. (1) v. New Mexico (5) – A clash of the titans in Draymond Green and Drew Gorden in the paint.  It should be fun to watch them go at it. I still like Michigan St. and the “Izzo” factor in this matchup.

Murray St. (6) v. Missouri (2) – Missouri’s guards will out shine and will Missouri to victory. They are too fast and they score at will. 

Elite Eight –

Michigan St. (1) v. Missouri (2) – Again, I think Missouri’s guards will be too tough of a match-up for Michigan St. Draymond Green and Derrick Nix will be a load inside, but I think Missouri takes this.

South Region –

Second Round –

Kentucky (1) v. Western Kentucky (16) – Kentucky’s bench would beat these guys by 20 points.

Iowa St. (8) v. UCONN (9) – UCONN has the talent to be a top 4 seed team. Unfortunately, they have been inconsistent all year. Their talent alone wins them this game, despite a great season from Iowa St.

Wichita St. (5) v. VCU (12) – I don’t think Shaka(!!) Smart and VCU have the same run in them like they did last year. Wichita St. is too much of an efficient scoring team, with 4 players averaging double-digits points.

Indiana (4) v. New Mexico St. (13) – I know IU has lost Verdell Jones III for the tourney, and this looks to be an upset in the making, but I’m still sticking with IU for at least this game. Cody Zeller is a beast.

UNLV (6) v. Colorado (11) – I like Colorado for the upset. Colorado is use to playing in high altitudes and Andre Roberson has been dominating their last few games.

Baylor (3) v. South Dakota St. (14) – Baylor on talent alone should win this game. Hopefully they use this game to shape up and find their stride for future games in the tourney.

Notre Dame (7) v. Xavier (10) – I don’t see Xavier and Tu Holloway “zipping up” Notre Dame. Xavier struggled in the A-10 and ND knows how to win big games, beating Syracuse and Marquette this season.

Duke (2) v. Lehigh (15) – Again, 2 v. 15 seed, plus Coach K. Good Luck, Lehigh. 

Third Round –

Kentucky (1) v. UCONN (9) – How Kentucky drew this matchup is beyond me, even if they were playing Iowa St. #1 seed of the whole tourney and they draw the toughest second round matchup. They still win, though.

Wichita St. (5) v. Indiana (4) – Wichita St. is a really good team and it is a game like this one where the lost of Verdell Jones III will hurt IU. I like Wichita St. to take this one.

Colorado (11) v. Baylor (3) – I think Baylor gets their act together and beats Colorado. Remember, while Colorado won their conference tourney, it was the Pac-12.

Notre Dame (7) v. Duke (2) – Norte Dame always gives their opponents a tough game, but I think Duke and Coach K will get pass ND. Duke has too much talent too not make the Sweet Sixteen.

Sweet Sixteen –

Kentucky (1) v. Wichita St. (5) – I think Marquis Teague, Darius Miller, and Doron Lamb will come to play and allow Anthony Davis to dominate on defense in the goalie position in the paint.

Baylor (3) v. Duke (2) – I took Baylor at 25-1 in the preseason to win the whole tourney, and I’m praying they at least give me hope by making it to the Elite Eight. Eventually, the three’s won’t fall for the Dukies. 

Elite Eight –

Kentucky (1) v. Baylor (3) – The combination of Anthony Davis, Terrence Jones, and Michael Kidd-Gilchrist will be too much for Baylor and Perry Jones III, Quincy Acy, and Quincy Miller. Kentucky rolls.

 

East Region –

Second Round –

Syracuse (1) v. UNC-Asheville (16) – Will losing Fab Melo for the tourney result in the first 16 seed to knock off a 1 seed? We think not.

Kansas St. (8) v. Southern Miss (9) – I’ll be honest here and say that I haven’t seen Southern Miss play or know anyone on their team. Going with what I’ve seen and what I’m familiar with here.

Vanderbilt (5) v. Harvard (12) – As much as I would like to pick Harvard here as my 12-5 upset and the Cinderella story that follows them, Vandy is too hot from winning the SEC tourney over Kentucky.

Wisconsin (4) v. Montana (13) - I have no confidence in Wisconsin this season. Montana has been undefeated since early December. They have experience winning in March (Spring Break Rosarito 2005 - Watched Montana dominate Boston College).

Cincinnati (6) v. Texas (11) – I like picking teams that finish strong and Cincy unexpectedly made it to the Big East Championship game. Also, I’m not the biggest Texas fan, although J’Covan Brown is really good.

Florida St. (3) v. St. Bonaventure (14) – Speaking of teams finishing strong, hello FSU winning the ACC tourney. They also have very good ones against inter-conference rivals UNC and Duke.

Gonzaga (7) v. West Virginia (10) – Gonzaga is always good for a second (first) round victory. I haven’t been too impressed with West Virginia this season. They are over-seeded here in my opinion.

Ohio St. (2) v. Loyola (15) – A 15 seed has only beating a 2 seed four times in tournament history. I don’t see Loyola taking down Ohio St, my preseason pick to win the whole thing.

Third Round –

Syracuse (1) v. Kansas St. (8) – With Fab Melo out for the tourney, this actually becomes a tough matchup for the Cuse. I still think they get by K-State, but it will take a lot out of them to do so.

Vanderbilt (5) v. Montana (13) – I love me some Big Sky Conference, but Montana’s run comes to an end here. High scoring game though with a ton of three’s being shot.

Cincinnati (6) v. Florida St. (3) – I think FSU’s guards will be too tough to handle for Cincy. Plus, FSU is still playing with a lot of confidence coming off winning the ACC tourney.

Gonzaga (7) v. Ohio St. (2) – Ohio St. guards the perimeter very well and Jared Sullinger will be too much to handle inside for Gonzaga. I like Ohio St in this matchup. 

Sweet Sixteen –

Syracuse (1) v. Vanderbilt (5) – This is the game where it finally catches up with Syracuse. They’ve been playing with fire all season, only having one big man and no established offense. Vandy gets them here.

Florida St. (3) v. Ohio St. (2) – Again, Ohio St. is very good defending guards, so I think they will be able to neutralize Michael Snaer and Ian Miller. Going to be close, but I’m taking Ohio St.

Elite Eight –

Vanderbilt (5) v. Ohio St. (2) – I can’t turn my back on Ohio St. now after riding them since the preseason. Vandy has the bigs to throw at Sullinger, but I’m praying Craft or Buford shows up.

Midwest –

Second Round –

North Carolina (1) v. Vermont (16) – 1 v. 16. Enough said.

Creighton (8) v. Alabama (9) – Creighton has a big-time scorer in Doug McDermott and that alone can win you a second (I know, first) round game. Bama plays good defense, but they can’t score worth a lick.

Temple (5) v. South Florida (12) – This is my 12-5 upset special. Every year there is always one. It’s just a matter of picking the right one. The rest of the 5 seeds are too good to lose.

Michigan (4) v. Ohio (13) – Not every 13 seed this year will beat the 4 seed, and I already have enough 13’s winning. Got to draw the line somewhere, no what how much I like the matchup for the underdog.

San Diego St. (6) v. North Carolina St. (11) – This whole middle section of the Midwest Bracket is filled with upset potential. This just isn’t the same SDSU team that we’ve seen in the past. NC St. takes it.

Georgetown (3) v. Belmont (14) – BOOOOOMMMMM!!! Dropping the hammer!!! Georgetown is notorious for bowing out early in the tourney. Belmont scores like crazy. Give me the upset here!!

St. Mary’s (7) v. Purdue (10) – Tough call on this pick. I like crazy-man looking Matt Dellavedova and St. Mary’s to knock out 8^th year senior (I kid) Robbie Hummel and Purdue.

Kansas (2) v. Detroit (15) – Kansas always let’s me down in the tourney. I hope they get pass Detroit, but you never know.

Third Round –

North Carolina (1) v. Creighton (8) – This will be a tough matchup for UNC and it will be fun to watch Harrison Barnes go up against Doug McDermott. Kendall Marshall leads them to victory in this game.

South Florida (12) v. Michigan (4) – Michigan shoots the ball well and will take it too South Florida, especially after already playing two games. They’ll be on tired legs trying to chase Tim Hardaway, Jr.

North Carolina St. (11) v. Belmont (14) – Could we have a Cinderella make the Sweet Sixteen in 14 seed Belmont? NC St. has been inconsistent this season and Belmont has 5 players scoring double-digits ppg.

St. Mary’s (7) v. Kansas (2) – St. Mary’s has a history in taking out high seeded teams, and Kansas has a history of losing early to mid-majors. I don’t think St. Mary’s pulls a Northern Iowa here. I’ll take KU.

Sweet Sixteen –

North Carolina (1) v. Michigan (4) – UNC has too much NBA talent to not make it pass the Sweet Sixteen. Anything less and it’s an utter failure of a season for them.

Belmont (14) v. Kansas (2) – Does Kansas have enough to make it pass the Sweet Sixteen. God, I sure do hope so. Thomas Robinson should dominate the paint and will Kansas to the victory.  

Elite Eight –

North Carolina (1) v. Kansas (2) – I’ve been living on a pray (OOOHHH, we’re half way there) with Kansas, and I originally had them in the final four, but too many bad memories and loses have changed my mind. 

Final Four – (Side note - President Obama and I have the same Final Four. Great minds think alike!)

Kentucky (1) v. Missouri (2) – Kentucky has the athletes and guards to match up with Missouri. In the end, Anthony Davis camping out in the paint will disrupt Missouri’s offense and penetrating guards.

Ohio St. (2) v. North Carolina (1) – UNC has the talent, but they’ve also slept walk and laid an egg in big game this season. And does Ohio St. have one more win in them to make me look good? I sure hope so.

One Shining Moment –

Kentucky (1) v. Ohio St. (2) – In the end, Kentucky has been too consistent and too dominating this entire season. Anthony Davis will undoubtedly win the triple crown of NCAA basketball (winning Freshman of the year, National Player of the Year, Defensive Player of the Year, and as an added bonus, be the First Overall Pick in the next NBA Draft assuming he leaves school). Michael Kidd-Gilchrist will score at will, as Ohio St. will have no answer for him. Coach Cal and Kentucky will be cutting down the nets to One Shining Moment.  

  

Let the Madness begin!!!

 

Mr. Armchair Speaking –

Really Bad Trade Ideas, That We Kind of Like - Mr. Armchair Style (I Know, Taken from ESPN NBA Today Podcast)

 Now that we are past March 1^st, the day when free agents who signed contracts during the lockout can become tradable; and with the March 15^th NBA trading deadline approaching, there stands to potentially be a lot of player movement, especially movement involving big-name players.  There is the much anticipated and possible trade of Dwight Howard, will the Boston Celtics make one more run for the title or completely gut the team and trade Rajon Rondo, will the Lakers move Pau Gasol or Andrew Bynum, and which dweller-cellars will position themselves to have the most available cap space to hopefully sign free agents from the next upcoming class.  With the new CBA in full effect, it should be interesting to see how teams approach the trading deadline and which players will get moved.  I think there will be trades that we didn’t see coming and some surprising players will be moved. 

We always hear rumors about player movement in trades and what not, and since I’m a big “rumor” guy and conspiracy theorist, I love reading about all of the “rumored” possible trades and inner workings that go into the thinking and logic of them; basically being a Mr. Armchair GM.  And with the advent of ESPN’s Trade Machine, a tool that allows fans to conceive possible trades while accounting for salary figures and trade exemptions.  In playing around with the Trade Machine, I conceived some possible trades involving players who are “supposedly” on the move.  If I were a real GM, I would make these deals and feel good about it.  These trades were all successful under salary cap guidelines and ESPN’s John Hollinger gives a +/- win differential.  Ryen Russillo on the NBAToday podcast does a similar bite called, “really bad trade ideas, that we kind of like,” so this is a play on that.  Enjoy!

Trade 1 -

Oklahoma City Thunder receives Dwight Howard from Orlando;

Orlando Magic receives James Harden, Kendrick Perkins, Serge Ibaka, Reggie Jackson, and a first-round pick from OKC;

Reasoning –

For creditability purposes, I probably should have waited to bust this one out, but this is also supposed to be a fun.  OKC is going to have to decide if it can afford to keep James Harden or Serge Ibaka or both, as their contracts are up after the following season and it’s looking more likely they won’t be able to hold onto both of them after signing Durant and Westbrook to massive contract extensions.  There is no guarantee that Howard stays, but maybe the thought of playing with Durant and Westbrook convinces him to resign with OKC. 

Orlando gets what they want in young, aspiring talent.  They get 3 starters: a young shooting guard in Harden who is a budding all-star, and two defensive-minded big men in Perkins and Ibaka to replace Howard.  They also get a first-round draft pick in this coming draft which is supposed to be deep.    

   

According to Hollinger's analysis: OKC gets a +2 wins; Orlando gets -1 wins.

Trade 2 –

Boston Celtics receive Josh Smith, and Jeff Teague from Atlanta;

Atlanta Hawks receive Rajon Rondo, JaJuan Johnson, and Keyon Dooling;

Reasoning –

If Boston GM Danny Ainge is truly going to blow the team up and if he truly feels that he can’t rebuild the Celtics around Rondo, then he should make this trade.  He gets two young, talented players in Smith and Teague.  Smith can replace KG at power forward when he leaves after the season or via trade since he is an expiring contract; and Ainge also gets a starting point guard to replace Rondo. 

Atlanta gets a point guard in Rondo who is pass-first and can run a team; and they also off-load Smith’s contract.  Smith leaving will also open more up more shots for Joe Johnson and Al Horford.  JaJuan Johnson is young and may turn into a nice role player. 

According to Hollinger’s analysis: Boston gets +2 wins; ATL gets -4 wins.

Trade 3 –

Sacramento Kings receive Rajon Rondo;

Boston Celtics receive Tyreke Evans (or a first-round pick), Jason Thompson, and Donte Greene;

Reasoning –

A fan can dream, right?  Sacramento would prefer to give up Tyreke in this deal rather than the first-round pick; but either way, whatever brings back Rondo they would do.  Rondo is the perfect point guard for what the Kings are trying to do on offense; running the ball up the court in transition.  This will also open up more shots for DeMarcus Cousins and Marcus Thorton. 

Again, if Boston is going to blow up the team, they would get back young talent with manageable contracts; protecting their salary-cap space.  Boston would probably take the first-round pick in this scenario, likely to be in the top 7, and draft a building block player like Jared Sullinger or Cody Zeller.  And don’t discount JT, a versatile big man who is active around the rim and has a decent jump shot. 

According to Hollinger’s analysis (with Tyreke involved): Sacramento gets +0 wins; Boston gets -1 wins.

Trade 4 –

Golden State Warriors receive Dwight Howard, Glen Davis;

Orlando Magic receives Stephen Curry, David Lee, Ekpe Udoh, and Klay Thompson;

Reasoning –

Golden State should make this move in a heartbeat, even if they don’t retain Howard after the season.  If they lose Howard, they can use his trade exemption to max out a free agent in this upcoming class.  The Warriors feel they can keep Howard by convincing him that playing with Ellis (who he supposedly wants to play with) and in the third largest market (SF/Bay Area) is his best option.  Also, they can offer him the most money because they would have his Larry Bird rights. 

Orlando again gets back good, young talent to rebuild with in Curry and, Udoh, and Thompson; and they off-load a bad contract in Davis.       

According to Hollinger’s analysis: Golden State gets +0 wins; Orlando gets -2 wins.

Trade 5 –

Portland Trail Blazers receive Steve Nash;

Phoenix Suns receive Raymond Felton and Wesley Matthews;

Reasoning –

This is probably the most realistic trade of this piece.  Phoenix is going nowhere and nowhere fast.  They have Nash in the last year of his contract and he is 38 years old.  Why on earth would they not move him?  I know he loves living in Phoenix, but you can’t hold onto him for the sake of holding onto him.  Why not move him for a young piece and an expiring contract in Matthews and Felton?   

Portland is hanging onto the 8^th seed, but they should be better than their record or seed suggested.  The reason why they are underachieving: their play at point guard.  Felton has been inconsistent the entire season and never really wanted to be in Portland since being traded there.  He is a talented player, so maybe a change in scenery will get him back to playing good basketball.  

According to Hollinger’s analysis: Portland gets +8 wins; Phoenix gets -8 wins.

Trade 6 –

Sacramento Kings receive Danny Granger;

Indiana Pacers receive Tyreke Evans, Jimmer Fredette, and Francisco Garcia;

Reasoning –

Again, dream city for me!!  Nothing against Evans, but he is the most tradable asset the Kings have right now.  And it’s not that he is a bad player, I just don’t think his skill set and mind-set (score first, ball in hand) meshes well with the Kings.  This trade will finally, FINALLY, give the Kings stability at the small forward; a guy who rebounds and defenses well at the position.  I know Grangers contract his huge, but the Kings can absorb it.

Indiana wants to off-load Grangers huge contract and finally be able to start Paul George at his natural position of small forward, instead of playing him out of position at shooting guard.  They can play Tyreke at shooting guard, or play him at the point instead of Darren Collison and George Hill.  Plus, they get Jimmer; and we know how Larry (Bird) likes his shooters.      

According to Hollinger’s analysis: Sacramento gets +2 wins; Indiana gets -1 wins.

Trade 7 –

Los Angeles Lakers receive Michael Beasley, Derrick Williams, Luke Ridnour, and a first-round pick;

Minnesota Timberwolves receive Pau Gasol;

Reasoning –

The Lakers already tried to trade Gasol once before and were unsuccessful at it (and rightfully so).  For the most part, this deal would solve the Lakers two most glaring problems: small forward and point guard play.  Michael Beasley and Luke Ridnour are big upgrades over Ron Artest (I’m not calling him Metta World Peace) and Derek Fisher.  But the real prize in this deal is Derrick Williams and the first-round pick, putting the Lakers in a nice position to rebuild. 

Minnesota is hovering around the 8^th seed of the playoffs, and acquiring Pau may surge them into the playoffs.  But Pau is also locked up for another 2-3 years and teaming him up with Kevin Love and follow Spaniard Ricky Rubio will make you real competitive for the foreseeable future.   

According to Hollinger’s analysis: Los Angeles gets -4 wins; Minnesota gets +0 wins.