We always hear rumors about player movement in trades and what not, and since I’m a big “rumor” guy and conspiracy theorist, I love reading about all of the “rumored” possible trades and inner workings that go into the thinking and logic of them; basically being a Mr. Armchair GM. And with the advent of ESPN’s Trade Machine, a tool that allows fans to conceive possible trades while accounting for salary figures and trade exemptions. In playing around with the Trade Machine, I conceived some possible trades involving players who are “supposedly” on the move. If I were a real GM, I would make these deals and feel good about it. These trades were all successful under salary cap guidelines and ESPN’s John Hollinger gives a +/- win differential. Ryen Russillo on the NBAToday podcast does a similar bite called, “really bad trade ideas, that we kind of like,” so this is a play on that. Enjoy!
Trade 1 -
Oklahoma City Thunder receives Dwight Howard from Orlando;
Orlando Magic receives James Harden, Kendrick Perkins, Serge Ibaka, Reggie Jackson, and a first-round pick from OKC;
Reasoning –
For creditability purposes, I probably should have waited to bust this one out, but this is also supposed to be a fun. OKC is going to have to decide if it can afford to keep James Harden or Serge Ibaka or both, as their contracts are up after the following season and it’s looking more likely they won’t be able to hold onto both of them after signing Durant and Westbrook to massive contract extensions. There is no guarantee that Howard stays, but maybe the thought of playing with Durant and Westbrook convinces him to resign with OKC.
Orlando gets what they want in young, aspiring talent. They get 3 starters: a young shooting guard in Harden who is a budding all-star, and two defensive-minded big men in Perkins and Ibaka to replace Howard. They also get a first-round draft pick in this coming draft which is supposed to be deep.
According to Hollinger's analysis: OKC gets a +2 wins; Orlando gets -1 wins.
Trade 2 –
Boston Celtics receive Josh Smith, and Jeff Teague from Atlanta;
Atlanta Hawks receive Rajon Rondo, JaJuan Johnson, and Keyon Dooling;
Reasoning –
If Boston GM Danny Ainge is truly going to blow the team up and if he truly feels that he can’t rebuild the Celtics around Rondo, then he should make this trade. He gets two young, talented players in Smith and Teague. Smith can replace KG at power forward when he leaves after the season or via trade since he is an expiring contract; and Ainge also gets a starting point guard to replace Rondo.
Atlanta gets a point guard in Rondo who is pass-first and can run a team; and they also off-load Smith’s contract. Smith leaving will also open more up more shots for Joe Johnson and Al Horford. JaJuan Johnson is young and may turn into a nice role player.
According to Hollinger’s analysis: Boston gets +2 wins; ATL gets -4 wins.
Trade 3 –
Sacramento Kings receive Rajon Rondo;
Boston Celtics receive Tyreke Evans (or a first-round pick), Jason Thompson, and Donte Greene;
Reasoning –
A fan can dream, right? Sacramento would prefer to give up Tyreke in this deal rather than the first-round pick; but either way, whatever brings back Rondo they would do. Rondo is the perfect point guard for what the Kings are trying to do on offense; running the ball up the court in transition. This will also open up more shots for DeMarcus Cousins and Marcus Thorton.
Again, if Boston is going to blow up the team, they would get back young talent with manageable contracts; protecting their salary-cap space. Boston would probably take the first-round pick in this scenario, likely to be in the top 7, and draft a building block player like Jared Sullinger or Cody Zeller. And don’t discount JT, a versatile big man who is active around the rim and has a decent jump shot.
According to Hollinger’s analysis (with Tyreke involved): Sacramento gets +0 wins; Boston gets -1 wins.
Trade 4 –
Golden State Warriors receive Dwight Howard, Glen Davis;
Orlando Magic receives Stephen Curry, David Lee, Ekpe Udoh, and Klay Thompson;
Reasoning –
Golden State should make this move in a heartbeat, even if they don’t retain Howard after the season. If they lose Howard, they can use his trade exemption to max out a free agent in this upcoming class. The Warriors feel they can keep Howard by convincing him that playing with Ellis (who he supposedly wants to play with) and in the third largest market (SF/Bay Area) is his best option. Also, they can offer him the most money because they would have his Larry Bird rights.
Orlando again gets back good, young talent to rebuild with in Curry and, Udoh, and Thompson; and they off-load a bad contract in Davis.
According to Hollinger’s analysis: Golden State gets +0 wins; Orlando gets -2 wins.
Trade 5 –
Portland Trail Blazers receive Steve Nash;
Phoenix Suns receive Raymond Felton and Wesley Matthews;
Reasoning –
This is probably the most realistic trade of this piece. Phoenix is going nowhere and nowhere fast. They have Nash in the last year of his contract and he is 38 years old. Why on earth would they not move him? I know he loves living in Phoenix, but you can’t hold onto him for the sake of holding onto him. Why not move him for a young piece and an expiring contract in Matthews and Felton?
Portland is hanging onto the 8th seed, but they should be better than their record or seed suggested. The reason why they are underachieving: their play at point guard. Felton has been inconsistent the entire season and never really wanted to be in Portland since being traded there. He is a talented player, so maybe a change in scenery will get him back to playing good basketball.
According to Hollinger’s analysis: Portland gets +8 wins; Phoenix gets -8 wins.
Trade 6 –
Sacramento Kings receive Danny Granger;
Indiana Pacers receive Tyreke Evans, Jimmer Fredette, and Francisco Garcia;
Reasoning –
Again, dream city for me!! Nothing against Evans, but he is the most tradable asset the Kings have right now. And it’s not that he is a bad player, I just don’t think his skill set and mind-set (score first, ball in hand) meshes well with the Kings. This trade will finally, FINALLY, give the Kings stability at the small forward; a guy who rebounds and defenses well at the position. I know Grangers contract his huge, but the Kings can absorb it.
Indiana wants to off-load Grangers huge contract and finally be able to start Paul George at his natural position of small forward, instead of playing him out of position at shooting guard. They can play Tyreke at shooting guard, or play him at the point instead of Darren Collison and George Hill. Plus, they get Jimmer; and we know how Larry (Bird) likes his shooters.
According to Hollinger’s analysis: Sacramento gets +2 wins; Indiana gets -1 wins.
Trade 7 –
Los Angeles Lakers receive Michael Beasley, Derrick Williams, Luke Ridnour, and a first-round pick;
Minnesota Timberwolves receive Pau Gasol;
Reasoning –
The Lakers already tried to trade Gasol once before and were unsuccessful at it (and rightfully so). For the most part, this deal would solve the Lakers two most glaring problems: small forward and point guard play. Michael Beasley and Luke Ridnour are big upgrades over Ron Artest (I’m not calling him Metta World Peace) and Derek Fisher. But the real prize in this deal is Derrick Williams and the first-round pick, putting the Lakers in a nice position to rebuild.
Minnesota is hovering around the 8th seed of the playoffs, and acquiring Pau may surge them into the playoffs. But Pau is also locked up for another 2-3 years and teaming him up with Kevin Love and follow Spaniard Ricky Rubio will make you real competitive for the foreseeable future.
According to Hollinger’s analysis: Los Angeles gets -4 wins; Minnesota gets +0 wins.
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