Mr. Armchair’s 2012 MLB Preview –

Spring is finally here, and that means another season of Major League Baseball is upon us. Does it get any better than this? I am a firm believer that Opening Day of the Baseball season should be installed as a national holiday, and everyone should be giving the day off to take in all of the games being played. Hell, even the President makes time to throw out a ceremonial first pitch for some team. Anyways, nothing is better than the smell of a freshly cut baseball field, and with that sweet aroma in the air, it reminds me that it is time to unleash Mr. Armchair’s 2012 Major League Baseball Preview.


National League –

*Playoff Team

NL East –

*Phillies (95-67) – Having arguably the best starting rotation in the baseball will take you a long way. Their pitching numbers were gaudy last season: 1^st in ERA (3.02), 1^st in Quality Starts (108), 1^st in WHIP (1.17), and 3^rd in Batting Average allowed (.240). Major questions still remain: how will the injury to Ryan Howard affect to team and how will the health of Chase Utley hold up? I think the Phillies make the playoffs on their starting pitching alone and winning the division, but the World Series?

*Braves (90-72) – The Atlanta Braves are a solid ballclub, and everyone always seem to count them out every year. I have to believe that Jason Heyward, who is finally healthy and worked with Chipper Jones all offseason on his swinging mechanics, will have a bounce back season and will see his numbers returns to where they were when he won the ROY award. That, along with solid seasons from Dan Uggla and Brian McCann, will win the Braves games. Watch out for Mike Minor as well in the rotation. 

Nationals (87-75) – This is my dark horse team for the Nation League. The Nationals are trending in the right direction. Acquiring Gio Gonzalez from the A’s in the offseason to be there third starter was a big get for them. I expect big offensive seasons from young players Michael Morse, Wilson Ramos, and Danny Espinosa. I also expect Ryan Zimmerman and Jayson Werth to have bounce back seasons as well. Bottom line: this team will compete and compete hard for a playoff spot. Oh yeah, Strasburg is healthy. 

Marlins (84-78) – Despite all of their high-priced purchases this offseason, I can’t see the Marlins finishing ahead of the Nationals, Braves, and Phillies. Now, if they won the Albert Pujols sweepstakes? The fact is they will be better, they probably will finish with a winning record; but because of the division they play in, they won’t see the playoffs this season. Shortstop Jose Reyes will be a solid player for them and moving Hanley Ramirez to third base will give them the best left side of the infield in baseball.  

Mets (75-87) – This team won’t be as bad as everyone thinks. They still have David Wright playing third base for them and I like their young players Ike Davis and Lucas Duda. Their big question mark is their starting pitching, starting with Johan Santana and his year-long injury. Mike Pelfrey has been inconsistent since becoming a full-time starter, RA Dickey is a knuckleballer, and they have two young prospects in Jonathan Niese and Dillon Gee, who actually both had fairly good seasons last year. 

NL Central –

*Cardinals (89-73) – Call me crazy, but I don’t think the Cards fall off too far from their wins mark of last year (90-72) despite losing their franchises best player of all-time, Albert Pujols. This is still a very good Cardinals team, with plenty of offensive firepower in Matt Holliday, Lance Berkman, and Carlos Beltran. Expect David Freese to build on his incredible World Series performance and look for Jon Jay to have a solid year now that he is playing full-time. Plus, their pitching staff is getting Adam Wainwright back. 

Reds (87-75) – With Albert Pujols and Prince Fielder having left the division and National League, Joey Votto is now the lone man at first base. He is arguably one of the top 3 players in the National League, and is primed to have another MVP type season. But there are other players on this club that are All-Star caliber. Brandon Phillips may be the best second baseman in the National League and Jay Bruce led the team in homers last season. The addition of Mat Latos finally gives the Reds an ace starting pitcher. 

Brewers (85-77) – You can’t ignore with what happened to this ballclub an the offseason with regards to Ryan Braun and his steroid allegations. It will be a distraction surrounding the team and he will hear junk from opposing fans everywhere he goes. And with any MVP type-season, there will be a natural deflation in his overall numbers. Couple that with the loss of Prince Fielder and I can’t see the Brewers making that strong of a push for the playoffs. They’ll need to ride their pitching to stay in the hunt. 

Pirates (75-87) – This is another team in the National League that I think will have a better season than most expect. They have a great young player in center fielder Andrew McCutchen that they are building around, and they are surrounding him with other good, young hitters like Niel Walker, Garrett Jones, and Jose Tabata. They also have two young starting pitchers in James McDonald and Jeff Karstens, who are coming off solid seasons. Joel Hanrahan is establishing himself as a shutdown closer as well. 

Cubs (69-93) – Oh man!!! It’s going to be a long year for Cubs fans. After looking at their roster, Theo Epstein is going to have his work cut out for him if he ever plans on bringing Cubs Nation a World Series title. Outside of shortstop Starling Castro, I don’t see how the Cubs are going to get any offensive production. And outside of Matt Garza in the starting rotation, who else will pitch well enough to win games? Ryan Dempster? Travis Wood? Mark Prior 2003 ain’t walking through those doors, Cubs fan. 

Astros – (58-104) – I think some Triple-A baseball teams could beat the Astros on a consistent basis. This team is whack!!! They are starting two underachieving prospects in Jed Lowrie and Jordan Schafer, players that never lived up to their expectations with their original teams but the Astros are hoping a “change is scenery” will help revitalize their career. They do have a young starting pitcher in Bud Norris, who is coming along nicely, although you would never know it judging by his win-loss record. 

NL West –

*Giants (91-71) – Yes, I am a homer, and I’m not paid to be objective. The Giants will win this division and make the playoffs. With our starting rotation and the return of Buster Posey, we will have the pitching-to-run support needed to win ballgames. Plus, the addition of Melky Cabrera (who was killing it in Spring Training) and Brandon Belt having a full-season under his belt (no pun intended), should help provide the offensive run-support needed to complement our superior starting pitching and bullpen. 

*Diamondbacks (89-73) – This is the only team in the division that will give the Giants a run for the division title. Yes, I know they won the division last year. Yes, I know they have MVP candidate Justin Upton. Yes, I know they have a plethora of young prospects. I’m not buying them this year. Last season, they had career years from players who out-played the back of their baseball card and things just fell right for them. I’m also not buying Trevor Cahill. His velocity is down and the ball flies in AZ. 

Dodgers (81-81) – It’s hard to believe that a team with the reigning CY Award winner (Clayton Kershaw) and maybe the best player in the National League (Matt Kemp) can only finish with a .500 record. This team does have some nice pieces on offense in Andre Ethier and Dee Gordon – and the back end of their bullpen can be solid with Javy Guerra, and Kenley Jansen – but I think they are still lacking another power hitter and 4^th and 5^th starting pitchers. Having an owner might help their cause as well. 

Rockies (74-88) – I’m convinced that the only way the Rockies will ever make the playoffs again is if they absolutely just load up on hitting and have everyone in their starting lineup batting over .265 with over 15 Hr’s and 70 RBI’s. And judging by their offseason acquisitions, it looks likes they are trying to do that. They acquired Ramon Hernandez, Marco Scutaro, Casey Blake, and Michael Cuddyer; yet their starting pitcher staff: Jhoulys Chacin, Jeremy Guthrie, Guillermo Moscoso, Tyler Chatwood, and Drew Pomeranz. 

Padres (67-95) – Well, at least I don’t have them losing more than 100 games. Their biggest offseason lose may be GM Jed Hoyer, who left the Padres to go work for Theo Epstein and the Cubs. This team, under Jed, had some young, promising talent. The new regime seems to be blowing up the same team they already blew up (not sure if that’s even possible). I do think Cameron Maybin and Chase Headley are players in this league and Cory Lueke will transition into a solid starting pitcher. 

American League –

*Playoff Team

AL East – 

*Yankees (96-66) – Is this the year that we count out the Yankees and see them have a losing season, not win the division, and not make the playoffs? Yeah, right!! The Yankees look stronger than last year and they only happen to win 97 games. I think the addition of Michael Pineda and the subtraction of AJ Burnett only bolsters their starting pitching rotation. Enter Sandman (Mo Rivera) still throws for a microscopic ERA with his one pitch (the cutter), and Robby Cano might win the AL MVP this season. 

*Rays (94-68) – You know, I’m still having a hard time figuring out Evan Longoria and what kind of player he is. In 2010, he hit .294 with 22 HR’s and almost 1:2 walk-to-strike out ratio. In 2011, he hits .244, but with 31 HR’s and an almost 1:1 walk-to-strike out ratio. I guess we are all just waiting for him to put it all together. Nevertheless, what makes the Rays this good is their starting pitcher. All young, all live-arms, and all under team control for a long time. Their best pitcher may be prospect Matt Moore. 

Red Sox (91-71) – Listen, I know someone had to be blamed for the meltdown that occurred last season with the Bo Sox, but I think it’s going to take a season or two before they overcome the loss of Terry Francona and Theo Epstein. I know they still have A-Gonzo, Pedroia, Youk, Ellsbury, and hopefully a bounce back season from Carl Crawford. They win a lot of games just because of talent, but if a manager had no effect on a team, the Oakland A’s would have won a playoff series in the early 2000’s. 

Blue Jays (87-75) – This is my dark horse team for the American League. If everything breaks right for the Blue Jays, they may actually finish ahead of the Bo Sox. I like their young prospects in Brett Lawrie and J.P. Arencibia. Jose Bautista can be penciled in for 40 HR’s again and with Kelly Johnson batting third ahead of him, Johnson will get plenty of pitches to hit and should see a spike in his numbers. Their starting rotation is solid and Sergio Santos, who they acquired for the White Sox, is a good closer. 

Orioles (68-94) – You know, on paper, this Orioles team should be competitive. I’ve always been a Nick Markakis guy, even though he can’t hit a homer. He bats at a decent clip (batting average) and plays a good defensive right field. Catcher Matt Wieters and center fielder Adam Jones are finally turning the corner and living up to the hype that followed them when coming up through the ranks. But their starting pitching staff is just bad and I can see the Orioles losing a lot of games by a score of 9-7 or 10-8. 

AL Central – 

*Tigers (104–58) – When I do the math: Miguel Cabrera, plus Prince Fielder, plus Justin Verlander, equals 104 wins. You can’t be serious, right? Miguel Cabrera has batted under .320 only twice in his whole career, and Prince Fielder has had 30 or more HR’s in the last 5 season; and these two are going to go 3-4 in the lineup? Add catcher Alex Avila and an underrated Delmon Young and it just becomes not even funny. Oh yeah, their closer, Jose Valverde, didn’t blow a save last season. 

Twins (83-79) – Talk about a team that is going to have to manufacture runs. There is not a whole lot of poop on this team. Depending on how you stack it, they will probably have the fastest 1-2 at the top of the order in Denard Span and Ben Revere. Follow that up with a healthy Joe Mauer, Justin Morneau, and Josh Willingham; and this team just might score enough runs to finish over .500. The hindrance to the Twins finishing the season over .500, having Carl Pavano as your number one starting pitcher. 

Royals (81-81) – Could this finally be the year that the Royals finish a season with a .500 or better record? Well, it’s as good as any year for them to do so. They have two power-horses at the corner infield positions with third baseman Mike Moustakus and first baseman Eric Hosmer. They have a ton of young, live arms in the backend of their bullpen as well. Billy Butler is turning into David Ortiz light (literally), and with decent starting pitching, I could see the Royals finally clipping the .500 benchmark. 

White Sox (74-88) – A manager with no managerial experience doesn’t bode well for the First Team (President Obama’s favorite baseball team). They have made some questionable offseason moves (like trading away Sergio Santos for a mid-level prospect), and are relying heavily on bounce back years from under-performing veterans (Alex Rios, Adam Dunn). Hopefully they can get some production from a couple of prospects in Brent Morel and Alejandro De Aza and post a decent record in a bad division. 

Indians (72-90) – This team is going to struggle. They’ll have some rough years while they develop their prospects Jason Kipnis, Michael Brantley, and Lonnie Chisenhall, all are projected to become good players; but in the meantime, they will have to rely on the bats of right fielder Shin-Soo Choo, shortstop Asdrubal Cabrera, and struggler Carlos Santana. All three are expected to have good years for the Indians. They do have Ubaldo Jimenez and Justin Masterson to provide them with some quality starts. 

AL West – 

*Angels (101-61) – Talk about winning the baseball offseason: only $254 million for Albert Pujols, only $77 million for C.J. Wilson; just putting a small dent into the pocketbook of owner Artie Moreno. You think he wants to win a World Series soon? But these are actually good baseball moves. Some question giving a 32 year old Pujols a 10-year deal, but most likely he will be DH’ing at the back end of his contract and still be a productive hitter. And adding Wilson as your 3^rd starter isn’t a bad signing either. 

*Rangers (98-64) – This team will probably win over 90 games, make the playoffs, and push the Angels for the division title; but I see some question marks with this team. What kind of production are you going to get from the starting rotation? Are they really going to rely on Joe Nathan, who is 38 years old and coming off a second Tommy John surgery, to close out games? Is Yu Darvish going to be Daisuke Matsuzaka 2008 or Hideki Irabu 1997? For my friend, The Professors, I hope it works out for his sake. 

Mariners (71-91) – This team has some young hitters in Dustin Ackely, Justin Smoak, Mike Carp, and Jesus Montero. And I finally, FINALLY, may get to see my premonition about Ichiro come true. He will reportedly hit third in the batting order, and I’ve always maintained that Ichiro is such a great hitter that if he wanted to, he could hit over 25 HR’s in a season. The most he’s ever hit in a season is 15 and it’s a little late in his career to be doing this, but I want to see him try. Oh, and they still have Felix Hernandez. 

A’s (65-97) – Hey, it’s not the worst record in baseball for the season. In my opinion, if the A’s lose less than 100 games this season, they should consider that a success. I can’t pile-on them too much; they did at least spend money this offseason on players. They spent $36 million on 26-year old (allegedly) Cuban ball player named Yoenis Cespedes, and they went out and signed Big Fat Bartolo Colon to be their number two starter. Great Moves!! Wait, San Jose or Sacramento would be great moves. 

Baseball Playoff Predictions –

AL Division Winners:

AL East – Yankees

AL Central – Tigers

AL West – Angels

Wild Card Teams – Rays, Rangers 

NL Division Winners:

NL East – Phillies

NL Central – Cardinals

NL West – Giants

Wild Card Teams – Braves, Diamondbacks 

World Series Prediction:

Tigers over Phillies 

Baseball Awards –

AL MVP – Miguel Cabrera, 1B Tigers

NL MVP – Joey Votto, 1B Reds

AL CY Young – Dan Haren, SP Angels

NL CY Young – Cole Hamel, SP Phillies

AL Rookie of the Year – Yu Darvish, SP Rangers

NL Rookie of the Year – Bryce Harper, OF Nationals

AL Manager of the Year – Jim Leyland, Detroit Tigers

NL Manager of the Year – Davey Johnson, Washington Nationals 

Mr. Armchair Speaking –