Mr. Armchair’s 2012 NBA Lottery Mock Draft, with a mix of NBA Finals Recap –

Well, we have another draft upon us.  This time, it’s the 2012 NBA Draft, happening this Thursday and to be seen on the Mother Ship, ESPN.  And since I am a draft nut, regardless of sport, I feel obligated to put out a Mr. Armchair 2012 NBA Lottery Mock Draft.   But first, a really quick and brief NBA Finals recap.  To the winners, the Miami Heat:  Good Job; Good Effort!!!  And a note to Juwan Howard, former Fab-Five member, you didn't "Shock the World" like you proclaimed at your team's victory party.  You, "Succeeded In Meeting Expectations!"  (I know, DP and Kornheiser had the same fruit for thought).  

 

Now on to my mock draft.  I've decided to change it up a bit this year and only do my mock draft for the teams in the NBA Draft Lottery.  My reasoning being that unlike the NFL Draft, the middle-to-bottom half of the NBA 1st round is filled with players who in all likelihood will be either still riding the bench or out of the league in 3-5 years.  I was listening to a podcast with ESPN NBA Draft expert Chad Ford last week, and he broke-down how the draft should work in terms of pick expectation of a team; an analysis that I agree with. 

He broke it down like this.  If you are drafting in the top 5, and if you definitely have the #1 overall pick, you should expect to draft a player that will turn out to be an All-Star caliber player or at the very least, a very good starter for your team.  If you are drafting in-between picks #6-#10, you should expect to draft a player who will turn out to be a starter for your team or at the very least, a very good rotation player.  Now, I would argue with Chad Ford on this point and I would actually extend the range from #10 to the end of the lottery, pick #14.  I feel that if you are a lottery team, you should expect to draft a player who will come in and develop into a starter or a very good rotation player.  Chad Ford and I both agree that if you drafting outside of the Draft Lottery, picks #15-#30, all you are hoping for is to draft a player who will become a good, off-the-bench, rotation player for your team.  It is unrealistic to think that you can draft someone in the 20’s and expect them to become an All-Star or have the same productivity as a player drafted in the Top 5 or 10 picks.  Now that’s not to say it can’t happen, and obviously there are cases where history proves us wrong, but it’s the expectations we are talking about and there are those players who exceed them.  Lastly, any player drafted in the 2nd round, all you are expecting and or hopefully for is that the player drafted just makes the team and helps fill out the roster.  Again, I know there are cases that proves otherwises.  

So if you were to swing this argument back around and equate this to the NFL Draft, it would look something like this:

Top 5 = 1^st round pick

6 – 14 = 2^nd to 3^rd round pick

15 – 30 = 4^th to 5^th round pick

2^nd round = 6^th to 7^th round pick      

You can agree with that or not, but with that reasoning in line, here is Mr. Armchair’s 2012 NBA Lottery Mock Draft.

1.  New Orleans Hornets – Anthony Davis, PF Kentucky

He is the Andrew Luck of the 2012 NBA Draft.  A virtual lock to be the #1 overall pick, he is a definite, franchise changing, destined All-Star player; unibrow and all.  His offensive game will need fine-tuning, but his potential to be a dominate rebounder and defender of the rim are unmatched by any college player we’ve ever seen.  I think a great debate many sports pundits will have 10 years from now is who was the better overall #1 pick in their respective sport:  Andrew Luck or Anthony Davis?

2.  Charlotte Bobcats – Thomas Robinson, PF Kansas

With Michael Jordan owning and running your basketball franchise (and yes, although he is just the owner, he has the final say in all basketball matters), who knows what’s to come with this pick.  They can go in several different directions.  They can go with SG Bradley Beal from Florida, SF Michael Kidd-Gilchrist, or SF and fellow Tarheel Harrison Barnes.  As much as I wanted to put Barnes at this pick, I’m sticking with (and praying for Bobcats fans sake) Robinson in this spot. 

3.  Washington Wizards – Bradley Beal, SG Florida     

The Washington Wizards made a big trade by sending Rashard Lewis and his albatross of a contract, and a second-round pick to the New Orleans Hornets for Emeka Okafor and Trevor Ariza.  This trade screams that Beal is their guy.  With Okafor at C, Nene at PF, Ariza at SF, and former #1 overall pick John Wall running the point, Beal is the perfect complement to that starting lineup.  He has lights-out shooting ability if he puts in the gym time and many scouts draw comparisons of him to Ray Allen. 

4.  Cleveland Cavaliers – Harrison Barnes, SF UNC

The Cavaliers have supposedly been in love with Barnes since last year’s draft but unfortunately couldn’t take him because he decided to return to school.  If he had decided to enter last year’s NBA Draft, the Cavs would have definitely selected Barnes with the #4 overall pick instead of PF Tristan Thompson from Texas.  Barnes, while not having the greatest of seasons upon returning to school, has a high basketball IQ and shoots the ball well.  He projects out to be a better NBA player than college.     

5.  Sacramento Kings – Michael Kidd-Gilchrist, SF Kentucky

If this truly happens – and I know I say this with every draft pick I want my teams to select – but if this happens, and the Sacramento Kings draft Michael Kidd-Gilchrist, I will truly pay for the Neuman limo service that will pick him up at Sacramento International Airport and take him to the presser at Arco Arena.  I’ll have a bottle of Dom Perignon Blanc, any year after 1993, waiting on ice.  He is the perfect fit for the Kings; being a SF who is high-energy, rebounds, and plays excellent perimeter defense.

6.  Portland Trail Blazers (via Brooklyn Nets) – Damian Lillard, PG Weber St.

It’s the classic debate pick of big man v. guard; Andre Drummond v. Damian Lillard.  Portland has already gotten burned once when taking the big man, so I think they go Lillard here over Drummond.  He has separated himself as being the best PG in the draft.  He has been performing well in pre-draft workouts and had a killer workout in Portland.  Some worry that playing at a small mid-major and against mid-level competition will hurt his transition to the NBA, but others see him as a very good starting PG.

7.  Golden State Warriors – Dion Waiters, SG Syracuse

For all of the “work” eeerrr……tanking the Warriors did to preserve this pick, they are in a real no-man’s land.  Waiters supposedly has a promise from a lottery team, but no one knows who that team is.  He left the NBA Draft Scouting Combine early and has not worked out for any team because of this “promise”.  And this “promise” doesn’t mean that a team drafting ahead of the mystery team can’t take Waiters.  I don’t think the Warriors are that team, but the logo (Jerry West) is very high on him.

8.  Toronto Raptors – Austin Rivers, SG Duke

The Raptors are very disappointed right now, as they expected either Lillard or Waiters to be their guy here at this pick.  While Rivers may have been somewhat of a disappointment at Duke when you take into account all of the hype placed on him coming out of high school, from what I’m reading he is moving up draft boards due to outstanding workouts.  I’m a Rivers fan and believer and feel this is not a bad consolation prize for the Raptors, as they need someone who can make an outside shot from the guard position.

9.  Detroit Pistons – John Henson, PF/C UNC

The Pistons had a huge pre-draft workout on Monday that featured all big-man slotted to go from pick numbers 6 thru 16.  Of them all, Henson supposedly shined the most and stood-out from the bunch.  The Pistons have been looking for a big man, preferably a shot-blocking Center, to bring in and allow them to move Greg Monroe to his more natural position of PF.  While Henson may be a little small, and thin, for a Center, his rebounding and shot-blocking skills are rated very high.  Meyers Leonard can also go here.

10.  New Orleans Hornets (via Minnesota Timberwolves) – Andre Drummond, C UCONN

Many have Drummond as having the second most upside in the Draft behind #1 overall pick Anthony Davis.  He is a high-risk, high-reward player who will either get a GM fired or make his career.  He is a freakish athlete for a guy with his frame and being a true 7-footer.  However, questions regarding his motor and desire to work on his game are reasons why he keps falling in most mock drafts.  This is probably his basement, with his ceiling being as high as #5 to Sacramento. 

11.  Portland Trail Blazers – Tyler Zeller, C UNC

Zeller isn’t the sexiest pick on the board, but he is consistent, runs the floor well, receives the ball well in the paint, shoots and rebounds well.  He probably won't be an All-Star in the league, but I can see him having a good 10-12 year career being a solid starter.  The Blazers need another skilled big man to play alongside stud PF LaMarcus Aldridge, and after bypassing on Andre Drummond with the #6 pick, Zeller makes perfect sense here at #11.  He and Lillard would make up a very good draft class.

12.  Houston Rockets (via Milwaukee Bucks) – Meyers Leonard, C Illinois

This pick is either going to be Zeller or Leonard, whichever one falls to them at this pick.  After trading away C Samuel Dalembert and the #14 pick to the Bucks for this pick and a slew of players, the Rockets are in need of a Center to fill that void.  Leonard is the last Center on the board worth taking this high in the draft, and adding him to their front-court rotation will be a plus.  I can also see Perry Jones III could go here as well, if the Rockets decided to include PF Luis Scola in any draft-day trades. 

13.  Phoenix Suns – Jeremy Lamb, SG UCONN

The Suns are in desperate need of adding talent to their backcourt.  There are a lot of possibilities here with this pick, as the Suns will have plenty of talented guards to choose from, but I think Lamb is the pick.  He can shoot the ball well and can play some PG if need be, like say if the Suns don’t resign Steve Nash.  Terrence Ross, SG from Washington could also go at this pick, as well as Kendall Marshall, PG from UNC, but Lamb is more talented and I can’t see him falling pass the Suns here. 

14.  Milwaukee Bucks (via Houston Rockets) – Terrence Ross, SG Washington

Now that the Bucks have acquired C Samuel Dalembert from the Rockets, their void at the Center position is now filled and the Bucks can focus on adding depth at other positions.  My guess is they look to the backcourt, as Ross is the best-talent-available at this point in the draft.  He can provide good depth behind SG Monta Ellis, who they acquired last season from the Warriors, and Ross being 6’7” could also maybe swing over and play some SF.  Again, I can see Perry Jones III going here as well. 

Mr. Armchair Speaking –

NBA Finals Preview – Bringing the Thunder to South Beach

It’s finally here!!!  The NBA Finals are upon us.  The Oklahoma City Thunder will square off against the Miami Heat.  After enduring what seemed to be the longest postseason in sports (every series in every round can go 7 games), I can honestly say that if there were a matchup that I really wanted to see, it’s this one.  The athletes and players involved, along with the intriguing story lines, makes this a marquee NBA Finals.  You have Kevin Durant v. LeBron James; Russell Westbrook v. Dwayne Wade; James Harden v. Chris Bosh.  The atmosphere for Game 1 tomorrow in OKC will be like no other, and nothing like you will see in Miami (perhaps maybe the worst sports city in America).  The noise level in OKC will be comparable to the early 2000’s Sacramento Kings teams and Arco Arena.  This will be a special series.  Let's look at some X-factors.     

X-Factors:

Russell Westbrook – While I’m not the biggest Russell Westbrook fan, I do acknowledge he is a very good player; and in my opinion, makes the engine go for the Thunder.  Yes, I know Durant is there best player, leading scorer, and franchise face; but Westbrook controls the tempo of the offense for the Thunder and dominates the ball, which is one of the reasons why I’m not a huge fan of his play.  He often times takes bad shots, takes shots away from Durant - particularly in critical situations -, over-dribbles, and also turns the ball over a lot.  I would like Westbrook a whole lot more as a player if he focused his attention on creating more assist opportunities for guys like Durant and Harden, and worked on his assist-to-turnover ratio instead of trying to score points and be so involved in the offense.  Which leads me to my X-Factor with Westbrook: if Westbrook keeps his turnovers down, focuses on running the offense, and his asst/to ratio up, the Thunder should be able to have their way with the Heat.  In the regular season, Westbrook averaged 23.6 ppg, 5.5 apg, and had a 1.51 asst/to ratio.  During the playoffs, Westbrook is averaging 21.7 ppg, 5.6 apg, and has a 2.5 asst/to ratio.  Westbrook will need to keep that 2.5 asst/to ratio in check against the Heat.      

Chris Bosh’s Health – Who would have thought that the most important player to the Miami Heat would be Chris Bosh?  Ok, just kidding, but his health is important to the Heat’s chances of winning this series.  When Bosh initially went down with his strained abdominal injury, I still felt the Heat were good enough and were going to beat the Pacers, and possibly extend the series with the Celtics long enough to get Bosh back semi-healthy for the latter games.  Against the Thunder however, they really need Bosh close to near-full health.  For the Thunder, Serge Ibaka and Kendrick Perkins dominate the paint and low-block area on defense, virtually taking away any viable big-man.  They took a part Pau Gasol and Andrew Bynum in the Lakers series and made Tim Duncan look old in their series with the Spurs.  With a healthy Chris Bosh for the Heat, he can extend Ibaka and Perkins away from the paint by hitting his outside jumpers and help unclog the middle so that LBJ and D-Wade have lanes to drive down the paint.

OKC’s Bench – OKC’s bench is vastly superior to the Heat’s bench.  Obviously this holds true because of James Harden; but for as much as I hate Derek Fisher, he still provides leadership and a good jump-shot off the bench; and Nick Collison is Mr. DoItAll, grabbing rebounds, playing good defense, and taking charges.  It’s night and day when compared to the Heat.  In games 6 and 7 versus the Celtics, the Heat played with an extremely short bench.  In Game 6, the Heat only had two bench players who played more than 15 minutes.  In Game 7, they only had one player.  The Thunders game plan should be to run the floor and push the tempo on offense, because for as good as LBJ and D-Wade are, I can’t see them being able to maintain that pace of play for a full 48 minutes in every game.  The Heat will need productive minutes out of their bench players to give LBJ and D-Wade a few minutes to breathe.     

Prediction Time:

OKLAHOMA CITY THUNDER WILL WIN IN 6 GAMES.

No, this is not a testament or pile-on to the hatred toward LBJ; I just think the Thunder are a better all-around team than the Miami Heat, and therefore will win this series.  The Thunder have better overall talent, play better team basketball, and have the home court.  I know the Heat have been there before and there can’t be enough said about having that experience, but the Thunder have looked experience in the face, and have overcome it.  On their path to the NBA Finals, the Thunder went through the Dallas Mavericks (last year champs), the Los Angeles Lakers, and the San Antonio Spurs.  All of these teams have won either one or multiple championships in recent years, and all would be considered more experienced than the Thunder.  Experience doesn’t, nor won't, scare or phase the Thunder.  

Mr. Armchair Speaking!!!