It’s finally here!!! The NBA Finals are upon us. The Oklahoma City Thunder will square off against the Miami Heat. After
enduring what seemed to be the longest postseason in sports (every
series in every round can go 7 games), I can honestly say that if there
were a matchup that I really wanted to see, it’s this one. The athletes and players involved, along with the intriguing story lines, makes this a marquee NBA Finals. You have Kevin Durant v. LeBron James; Russell Westbrook v. Dwayne Wade; James Harden v. Chris Bosh. The
atmosphere for Game 1 tomorrow in OKC will be like no other, and
nothing like you will see in Miami (perhaps maybe the worst sports city
in America). The noise level in OKC will be comparable to the early 2000’s Sacramento Kings teams and Arco Arena. This will be a special series. Let's look at some X-factors.
X-Factors:
Russell
Westbrook – While I’m not the biggest Russell Westbrook fan, I do
acknowledge he is a very good player; and in my opinion, makes the engine go
for the Thunder. Yes, I know Durant is there best player,
leading scorer, and franchise face; but Westbrook controls the tempo of
the offense for the Thunder and dominates the ball, which is one of the
reasons why I’m not a huge fan of his play. He often
times takes bad shots, takes shots away from Durant - particularly in
critical situations -, over-dribbles, and also turns the ball over a lot. I
would like Westbrook a whole lot more as a player if he focused his
attention on creating more assist opportunities for guys like Durant and Harden, and worked on his
assist-to-turnover ratio instead of trying to score points and be so
involved in the offense. Which leads me to my X-Factor
with Westbrook: if Westbrook keeps his turnovers down, focuses on
running the offense, and his asst/to ratio up, the Thunder should be
able to have their way with the Heat. In the regular season, Westbrook averaged 23.6 ppg, 5.5 apg, and had a 1.51 asst/to ratio. During the playoffs, Westbrook is averaging 21.7 ppg, 5.6 apg, and has a 2.5 asst/to ratio. Westbrook will need to keep that 2.5 asst/to ratio in check against the Heat.
Chris Bosh’s Health – Who would have thought that the most important player to the Miami Heat would be Chris Bosh? Ok, just kidding, but his health is important to the Heat’s chances of winning this series. When
Bosh initially went down with his strained abdominal injury, I still
felt the Heat were good enough and were going to beat the Pacers, and possibly extend the series with
the Celtics long enough to get Bosh back semi-healthy for the latter
games. Against the Thunder however, they really need Bosh close to near-full health. For
the Thunder, Serge Ibaka and Kendrick Perkins dominate the paint and
low-block area on defense, virtually taking away any viable big-man. They took a part Pau Gasol and Andrew Bynum in the Lakers series and made Tim Duncan look old in their series with the Spurs. With
a healthy Chris Bosh for the Heat, he can extend Ibaka and Perkins away from the paint by hitting his outside
jumpers and help unclog the middle so that LBJ and D-Wade have lanes to
drive down the paint.
OKC’s Bench – OKC’s bench is vastly superior to the Heat’s bench. Obviously
this holds true because of James Harden; but for as much as I hate
Derek Fisher, he still provides leadership and a good jump-shot off the
bench; and Nick Collison is Mr. DoItAll, grabbing rebounds, playing good
defense, and taking charges. It’s night and day when compared to the Heat. In games 6 and 7 versus the Celtics, the Heat played with an extremely short bench. In Game 6, the Heat only had two bench players who played more than 15 minutes. In Game 7, they only had one player. The
Thunders game plan should be to run the floor and push the tempo on
offense, because for as good as LBJ and D-Wade are, I can’t see them being
able to maintain that pace of play for a full 48 minutes in every game. The Heat will need productive minutes out of their bench players to give LBJ and D-Wade a few minutes to breathe.
Prediction Time:
OKLAHOMA CITY THUNDER WILL WIN IN 6 GAMES.
No, this is not a testament or pile-on to the hatred toward LBJ; I just think the Thunder are a better all-around team than the Miami Heat, and therefore will win this series. The Thunder have better overall talent, play better team basketball, and have the home court. I
know the Heat have been there before and there can’t be enough
said about having that experience, but the Thunder have looked
experience in the face, and have overcome it. On their
path to the NBA Finals, the Thunder went through the Dallas Mavericks
(last year champs), the Los Angeles Lakers, and the San Antonio Spurs. All
of these teams have won either one or multiple championships in
recent years, and all would be considered more experienced than the
Thunder. Experience doesn’t, nor won't, scare or phase the Thunder.
Mr. Armchair Speaking!!!
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