Now
on to my mock draft. I've decided to change it up a bit this year and
only do my mock draft for the teams in the NBA Draft Lottery. My
reasoning being that unlike the NFL Draft, the middle-to-bottom half of
the NBA 1st round is filled with players who in all likelihood will be
either still riding the bench or out of the league in 3-5 years. I
was listening to a podcast with ESPN NBA Draft expert Chad Ford last
week, and he broke-down how the draft should work in terms of pick
expectation of a team; an analysis that I agree with.
He
broke it down like this. If you are drafting in the top 5, and if you
definitely have the #1 overall pick, you should expect to draft a player
that will turn out to be an All-Star caliber player or at the very
least, a very good starter for your team. If you are
drafting in-between picks #6-#10, you should expect to draft a player
who will turn out to be a starter for your team or at the very least, a
very good rotation player. Now, I would argue with Chad
Ford on this point and I would actually extend the range from #10 to the
end of the lottery, pick #14. I feel that if you are a
lottery team, you should expect to draft a player who will come in and
develop into a starter or a very good rotation player. Chad
Ford and I both agree that if you drafting outside of the Draft
Lottery, picks #15-#30, all you are hoping for is to draft a player who
will become a good, off-the-bench, rotation player for your team. It
is unrealistic to think that you can draft someone in the 20’s and
expect them to become an All-Star or have the same productivity as a
player drafted in the Top 5 or 10 picks. Now that’s not to
say it can’t happen, and obviously there are cases where history proves
us wrong, but it’s the expectations we are talking about and there are
those players who exceed them. Lastly, any player drafted
in the 2nd round, all you are expecting and or hopefully for is that the
player drafted just makes the team and helps fill out the roster. Again, I know there are cases that proves otherwises.
So if you were to swing this argument back around and equate this to the NFL Draft, it would look something like this:
Top 5 = 1st round pick
6 – 14 = 2nd to 3rd round pick
15 – 30 = 4th to 5th round pick
2nd round = 6th to 7th round pick
You can agree with that or not, but with that reasoning in line, here is Mr. Armchair’s 2012 NBA Lottery Mock Draft.
1. New Orleans Hornets – Anthony Davis, PF Kentucky
He is the Andrew Luck of the 2012 NBA Draft. A virtual lock to be the #1 overall pick, he is a definite, franchise changing, destined All-Star player; unibrow and all. His
offensive game will need fine-tuning, but his potential to be a
dominate rebounder and defender of the rim are unmatched by any college
player we’ve ever seen. I think a great debate many sports
pundits will have 10 years from now is who was the better overall #1
pick in their respective sport: Andrew Luck or Anthony Davis?
2. Charlotte Bobcats – Thomas Robinson, PF Kansas
With
Michael Jordan owning and running your basketball franchise (and yes,
although he is just the owner, he has the final say in all basketball
matters), who knows what’s to come with this pick. They can go in several different directions. They can go with SG Bradley Beal from Florida, SF Michael Kidd-Gilchrist, or SF and fellow Tarheel Harrison Barnes. As much as I wanted to put Barnes at this pick, I’m sticking with (and praying for Bobcats fans sake) Robinson in this spot.
3. Washington Wizards – Bradley Beal, SG Florida
The
Washington Wizards made a big trade by sending Rashard Lewis and his
albatross of a contract, and a second-round pick to the New Orleans
Hornets for Emeka Okafor and Trevor Ariza. This trade screams that Beal is their guy. With
Okafor at C, Nene at PF, Ariza at SF, and former #1 overall pick John
Wall running the point, Beal is the perfect complement to that starting
lineup. He has lights-out shooting ability if he puts in the gym time and many scouts draw comparisons of him to Ray Allen.
4. Cleveland Cavaliers – Harrison Barnes, SF UNC
The
Cavaliers have supposedly been in love with Barnes since last year’s
draft but unfortunately couldn’t take him because he decided to return
to school. If he had decided to enter last year’s NBA
Draft, the Cavs would have definitely selected Barnes with the #4
overall pick instead of PF Tristan Thompson from Texas. Barnes, while not having the greatest of seasons upon returning to school, has a high basketball IQ and shoots the ball well. He projects out to be a better NBA player than college.
5. Sacramento Kings – Michael Kidd-Gilchrist, SF Kentucky
If
this truly happens – and I know I say this with every draft pick I want
my teams to select – but if this happens, and the Sacramento Kings
draft Michael Kidd-Gilchrist, I will truly pay for the Neuman
limo service that will pick him up at Sacramento International Airport
and take him to the presser at Arco Arena. I’ll have a bottle of Dom Perignon Blanc, any year after 1993, waiting on ice. He is the perfect fit for the Kings; being a SF who is high-energy, rebounds, and plays excellent perimeter defense.
6. Portland Trail Blazers (via Brooklyn Nets) – Damian Lillard, PG Weber St.
It’s the classic debate pick of big man v. guard; Andre Drummond v. Damian Lillard. Portland has already gotten burned once when taking the big man, so I think they go Lillard here over Drummond. He has separated himself as being the best PG in the draft. He has been performing well in pre-draft workouts and had a killer workout in Portland. Some
worry that playing at a small mid-major and against mid-level
competition will hurt his transition to the NBA, but others see him as a
very good starting PG.
7. Golden State Warriors – Dion Waiters, SG Syracuse
For all of the “work” eeerrr……tanking the Warriors did to preserve this pick, they are in a real no-man’s land. Waiters supposedly has a promise from a lottery team, but no one knows who that team is. He left the NBA Draft Scouting Combine early and has not worked out for any team because of this “promise”. And this “promise” doesn’t mean that a team drafting ahead of the mystery team can’t take Waiters. I don’t think the Warriors are that team, but the logo (Jerry West) is very high on him.
8. Toronto Raptors – Austin Rivers, SG Duke
The Raptors are very disappointed right now, as they expected either Lillard or Waiters to be their guy here at this pick. While
Rivers may have been somewhat of a disappointment at Duke when you take
into account all of the hype placed on him coming out of high school,
from what I’m reading he is moving up draft boards due to outstanding
workouts. I’m a Rivers fan and believer and feel this is
not a bad consolation prize for the Raptors, as they need someone who
can make an outside shot from the guard position.
9. Detroit Pistons – John Henson, PF/C UNC
The Pistons had a huge pre-draft workout on Monday that featured all big-man slotted to go from pick numbers 6 thru 16. Of them all, Henson supposedly shined the most and stood-out from the bunch. The
Pistons have been looking for a big man, preferably a shot-blocking
Center, to bring in and allow them to move Greg Monroe to his more
natural position of PF. While Henson may be a little small, and thin, for a Center, his rebounding and shot-blocking skills are rated very high. Meyers Leonard can also go here.
10. New Orleans Hornets (via Minnesota Timberwolves) – Andre Drummond, C UCONN
Many have Drummond as having the second most upside in the Draft behind #1 overall pick Anthony Davis. He is a high-risk, high-reward player who will either get a GM fired or make his career. He is a freakish athlete for a guy with his frame and being a true 7-footer. However, questions regarding his motor and desire to work on his game are reasons why he keps falling in most mock drafts. This is probably his basement, with his ceiling being as high as #5 to Sacramento.
11. Portland Trail Blazers – Tyler Zeller, C UNC
Zeller
isn’t the sexiest pick on the board, but he is consistent, runs the
floor well, receives the ball well in the paint, shoots and rebounds
well. He probably won't be an All-Star in the league, but I can see him having a good 10-12 year career being a solid starter. The
Blazers need another skilled big man to play alongside stud PF LaMarcus
Aldridge, and after bypassing on Andre Drummond with the #6 pick,
Zeller makes perfect sense here at #11. He and Lillard would make up a very good draft class.
12. Houston Rockets (via Milwaukee Bucks) – Meyers Leonard, C Illinois
This pick is either going to be Zeller or Leonard, whichever one falls to them at this pick. After
trading away C Samuel Dalembert and the #14 pick to the Bucks for this
pick and a slew of players, the Rockets are in need of a Center to fill
that void. Leonard is the last Center on the board worth
taking this high in the draft, and adding him to their front-court
rotation will be a plus. I can also see Perry Jones III could go here as well, if the Rockets decided to include PF Luis Scola in any draft-day trades.
13. Phoenix Suns – Jeremy Lamb, SG UCONN
The Suns are in desperate need of adding talent to their backcourt. There
are a lot of possibilities here with this pick, as the Suns will have
plenty of talented guards to choose from, but I think Lamb is the pick. He can shoot the ball well and can play some PG if need be, like say if the Suns don’t resign Steve Nash. Terrence
Ross, SG from Washington could also go at this pick, as well as Kendall
Marshall, PG from UNC, but Lamb is more talented and I can’t see him
falling pass the Suns here.
14. Milwaukee Bucks (via Houston Rockets) – Terrence Ross, SG Washington
Now
that the Bucks have acquired C Samuel Dalembert from the Rockets, their
void at the Center position is now filled and the Bucks can focus on
adding depth at other positions. My guess is they look to the backcourt, as Ross is the best-talent-available at this point in the draft. He
can provide good depth behind SG Monta Ellis, who they acquired last
season from the Warriors, and Ross being 6’7” could also maybe swing
over and play some SF. Again, I can see Perry Jones III going here as well.
Mr. Armchair Speaking –
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