We have finally reached the mecca of the 2012-2013 NFL football season: the Super Bowl!!! The Super Bowl is the single most watched sporting event (and television event for that matter) of the year. Casual football fans, non-football fans, to even Mrs. Armchair; they can’t help but find themselves glued to the television at some point during the game to watch. Major companies paid upward to $5-6 million dollars just for a 30 second commercial spot during the Super Bowl. Mountains of food and waterfalls of beer are consumed during the game. Needless to say, the Super Bowl is a big deal!!!
What makes this Super Bowl even a bigger deal is that my San Francisco 49ers, my beloved San Francisco 49ers, are playing in this years’ Super Bowl. After the heart-breaking, gut-wrenching lose to the New York Giants in last year’s NFC Championship game, and then watching them prevail over the New England Patriots in the Super Bowl, knowing that my San Francisco 49ers should have been the ones prevailing, was tough. It didn’t make for a great Super Bowl, and as a fanatic football fan who loves the Super Bowl, it was bittersweet. This year, it’s all SWEET baby!!! No bitterness whatsoever; just pure joy!!! And come Sunday, February 3rd, that sweetness and joy will only intensify. This Super Bowl has been a long time coming.
As always, I will do my best to give you folks a complete and non-bias breakdown of the keys to victory for each team.
Baltimore Ravens –
Ø Joe Flacco needs to keep trending upward – At the beginning of the season, Joe Flacco so proudly proclaimed he was a top 5 QB and should be included amongst the elite QB’s in the game. This brought much laughter and hilarity to the football world. But after his performance this postseason – performing brilliantly and out-dueling the likes of Andrew Luck, HOFer Peyton Manning, and HOFer Tom Brady, the laughter and hilarity is now quiet. This postseason, Joe Flacco has thrown for 8 Td’s, 0 Int’s, and has a QB Passer Rating of 114.7. Pretty remarkable stats. If he continues his play of late, the Ravens offense will be hard to stop.
Ø Feed Ray Rice – Let’s face it, the Raven’s defense is old. They aren’t the same fast, bruising defense that they have been known for in the past. The Ravens will need to feed Ray Rice and the O-line will need to open running lanes up for him to run through in order to keep the offense moving the ball down the field on long, sustaining long drives to keep the Ravens defense fresh and off the field.
Ø Blow up the middle – The 49ers run the pistol offense (for the most part), meaning their running game is predicated on their O-line setting the edges so that the RB or QB can read the edges and decided where to run the ball. If the DE bites down, the ball goes to the outside. If the DE stays home on the outside, the ball goes underneath and/or into the middle. It’s the same style of offense that Oregon and most college football teams are running now. This style of offense is fast-paced, with the idea of scoring points quickly. In the cases I’ve seen where this style of offense has been stopped or slowed down; the defensive had a dominating DT that controlled the interior of the line and blow up plays before they even got started. Case in point, 2010 NCAA National Championship game were Auburn defeated Oregon. Auburn’s defense dominated Oregon’s offense, all do to DT Nick Fairley and his ability to get into the backfield and blow up plays before they even started. If Ma’ake Kemoetu and Terrance Cody can control the interior and get into the backfield, the 49ers offense will go stagnant.
San Francisco 49ers –
Ø Run at Pernell McPhee – The other option, running at Haloti Ngata, and good luck trying to accomplish getting rushing yards that away. With the 49ers running the pistol offense, the best way to neutralize a good DE is to run away from them. They will most likely be trying to control the edge and when they see the play moving the other direction, they won’t have the time or the footstep to catch up to it. Hell, you can get away with possibly not even blocking the DE and pull the opposite T or G depending on how wide he sets up. So in the case of the 49ers, Anthony Davis and Alex Boone better have their track shoes on.
Ø Getting to the second level – With the Ravens playing a 3-4 defense, meaning there are only 3 down-linemen, it leaves 2 O-linemen (in theory) free to get into the second level and put hats on linebackers. This means someone better be laying the wood to Ray Lewis. Yes he is having an unbelievable postseason and ride to the finish line of his career has been fun to watch, but most of the plays he is making are due to the fact that he is able to run freely on the field. Let’s face it, he is old and not the same player he used to be. He can’t shed away blockers the way he used too, relying on the D-linemen to take on those blockers. If the 49ers can get an O-lineman into the second level and put a hat on Ray Ray, they will essentially take him out of the play and allow the RB or QB to get more yardage.
Ø Pressure Joe Flacco – Part of the reason why Joe Flacco has been playing unbelievable football is due to his newly constructed O-line and them only allowing Flacco to be sacked 4 times this entire postseason. Moving Michael Oher to RT, Kelechi Osemele to RG, and Brian McKinnie to RT has really transformed the Ravens O-line, opening wider holes for Ray Rice to run through and better pass protection for Joe Flacco. The 49ers on the other hand, had 38 sacks for the entire season, 2.375 per game, but only 2 sacks this entire postseason. The theory was that with an unhealthy Justin Smith, opposing O-lines have been able to neutralize Aldon Smith (49ers sack leader) with double and triple teams. With Justin Smith now somewhat healthy, he can now occupy more blockers, freeing up Aldon. Hopefully the 49ers can get to Joe Flacco to disrupt his throwing pattern, and make him revert back to the Joe Flacco that we have come to known and are used to seeing. The 49ers stand to have an excellent chance of winning this Super Bowl if they can do this.
Prediction –
San Francisco 49ers – 31
Baltimore Ravens – 17
MVP – Colin Kaepernick
49ers Super Bowl Champions!!!!
I know people are expecting a rather close game between the two teams, but I think the 49ers are going to win this game comfortably, completing the “Quest for Six.” I think Colin Kaepernick will be too much for the Ravens defense, both in the running and passing games. I think the 49ers O-line is too good and too big for the Ravens D-linemen to control and they won’t get the type of penetration they need to disrupt the read-option offense. And finally, I think the 49ers defense is just too stout and fast and will be able to disturb Joe Flacco’s passing rhythm and clog up the running lanes for Ray Rice. On paper and on the field, the 49ers are a more talented, more balanced, and a better overall team; and they will prevail. San Francisco 49ers return to glory.
And besides, did you actually think I would pick against my team??? NINERS BABY!!!!
Mr. Armchair Speaking!!!
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