Mr. Armchair Very Brief NBA Finals Preview –

Executives at NBA Headquarters can breathe a collective sigh of relief.  The NBA Finals will not feature two small-market teams, as the Miami Heat finished off the Indiana Pacers in Game 7 of the Eastern Conference Finals on Monday.  The Heat will now square off against the San Antonio Spurs, who defeated the Memphis Grizzlies in a four game sweep last week.  So now that the NBA has their dream match-up, let’s break this NBA Finals down.

Miami – The Heat are coming off a more challenging series than people thought it would be against the Indiana Pacers, winning the series in seven games.  For the Pacers, they stayed true to their game plan of being physical with LeBron when he droves to the hole, and to dominate the paint on both ends of the court.  For the Heat, LeBron answered the call and stepped-up to the challenge the Pacers were throwing at him, and he won.  That’s the bottom line: LeBron won this series for the Heat, with a helping hand from Chris “Birdman” Anderson of all people.  LeBron proved yet again that he is an unstoppable force and now that he is going up against the Spurs, the team that prevented him from winning his first NBA Finals in 2007 when he was with the Cleveland Cavaliers, he now has additional motivation to win this go-around.

Spurs – The Spurs have been resting comfortably for about a week now in their retirement community they all live in.  This was much needed however, as the Spurs have been banged up with nagging injuries that has plagued them since their series victory against the Golden State Warriors.  Tony Parker has been dealing with a calf injury, Tim Duncan was sick with the flu, and who knows how many injuries Manu Ginobili is dealing with.  The additional rest the Spurs were able to get by the Heat/Pacers series going seven games can only be a positive and will surely provide for a much better series than if the Spurs had to play any more games against the Grizzlies than necessary.  And lord knows they will need everyone at full strength if they have any hope of defeating the Heat in the NBA Finals. 

Key Match-ups – There are two key match-ups that will dictate the way this series goes:  LeBron James v. whoever guards him, and Tony Parker v. Dwayne Wade.  I imagine from the Spurs point-of-view that they will start the game off with Kawhi Leonard guarding LeBron, and while Leonard has established himself this postseason as a formidable defender, this is LeBron we’re talking about here.  And not just any LeBron, a motivated, ticked-off LeBron, who openly admitted that he wants revenge against the Spurs for beating him in the NBA Finals in 2007.  He is poised and playing the best basketball of his career right now.  Good Luck guarding him, Kawhi Leonard, Danny Green, Manu Ginobili, Boris Diaw, Matt Bonner, and whoever else Gregg Popovich throws at LeBron.

The second key match-up is Tony Parker v. Dwayne Wade.  During the Warriors and Grizzlies series, Parker took complete control over the Spurs and was the driving force behind those series victories.  Despite being hampered by nagging injuries, he is showing no signs of slowing down or losing a step.  If he gets out into the open floor and able to drive the lane, with the addition of his mid-range jumper working for him on those pick-in-rolls with Duncan, he can again go on a tear and take over this series.  It will be up to Dwayne Wade to try to stop Parker though.  While Mario Chalmers may be the starting PG of the Heat and would probably start the game off guarding Parker, I think eventually Coach Erik Spoelstra will move Wade over and have him guard Parker.  Though Wade may not be as quick as Chalmers, he is bigger and stronger and would be able to fight through those pick-in-roll sets the Spurs like to run.  Wade however really showed last series against the Pacers that he is starting to slow down and one has to wonder if he has enough left in the tank to guard a player as quick as Parker is.               

Overall – For the Spurs to win this series, they’ll need every one of their key players to be at their best in order to beat the Heat.  They’ll need Tim Duncan to dominate the paint like Roy Hibbert did for the Pacers, which I think won’t be as easy for Duncan to do as it was for Hibbert.  I was really impressed by how Hibbert played against the Heat, controlling the inside of the paint offensively.  While I know Duncan is a Hall-of-Famer, he is 37 years old and not as athletic as he used to be.  I think Duncan will be easier to guard for the Heat than Hibbert was. 

For the Heat, they just need LeBron to keep being LeBron, and for everyone else to just get him the ball and contribute when needed.  That is pretty much it in terms of game planning for the Heat.   

Prediction – Heat will win in six games.  Heat will win the first two games in Miami, they’ll go to San Antonio were the Spurs will take two of three on their home court, making the series 3-2 advantage Heat going back to Miami.  The Heat won’t wait till Game 7; no need for the drama.  The Heat will take it in Game 6.  

Mr. Armchair Speaking!!!