What’s Wrong with The Freak??

There is much concern in the land of Castoffs and Misfits (SF Giants).  Our ace and franchise face, Tim Lincecum, isn’t having the best of seasons.  His record is 2-4 with a 6.04 ERA, 1.59 WHIP, and a fastball hovering around 89-91 MPH.  Most are attributing Timmy’s wayward season to a drop in velocity.  His fastball doesn’t have the same zip on it like it had when he first exploded onto the scene and on his way to winning back-to-back CY Young Awards (2008 and 2009).  While his lose in velocity should be noted, I don’t believe it’s the main cause of Timmy’s problems and one that shouldn’t be cited as the source.  In watching Timmy pitch this season, he tends to lose focus during, or even at the start of games, which allows for the big inning that has hampered him all season.  He also is getting little run-support from the Giants offense when he pitches, a problem that was consistent last season in his starts (he was the second amongst starting pitchers in lack of run-support last season).  But what’s a bigger concern in my book is his lack of control on his breaking pitches, mainly his curveball.  It’s makes life really easy for hitter when your curveball bounces 3-feet in front of home plate and they can just sit on your fastball.  And when you do get it over the plate, it’s up in the zone and any decent hitter will crush a hanging curve.  It is doing him no good to throw and I believe it’s a pitch that Timmy needs to abandon altogether.     

Normally, a starting pitcher will throw 4 pitches:  fastball, curveball, slider, and change-up.  The fastball will always be the primary pitch a pitcher throws and one that he throws the most often, typically the first pitch of every at-bat.  While Timmy’s fastball may only average 89-91 MPH, OPP BA (opponent’s batting average) is only .270.  He throws his fastball 54% of the time, 63% on first pitch, 56% early in the count, 40% with two strikes, 43% of the time when ahead in the count, and 64% when behind.  Compare that to Justin Verlander (.248, 58%, 72%, 61%, 47%, 42%, and 70%), Clayton Kershaw (.255, 68%, 81%, 73%, 50%, 49%, and 85%), and Roy Halladay (.268, 69%, 74%, 73%, 60%, 62%, and 78%), and it’s comparable.  I know these stats don’t measure velocity and only usage, but what I’m trying to say it hitters aren’t crushing his fastball despite the lost in velocity and he is not afraid to throw his fastball.  When you look at these same stats for his curveball, it tells a different story. 

What separates a good starting pitcher from the rest of the pack are their secondary pitches or “out-pitch.”  The “out-pitch” is normally an off-speed pitch, whether it’s a good change-up, slider, cutter, splitter, or curveball.  Timmy had three excellent out-pitches when he first came up: his slider, curveball, and an awesome change-up; so he has out-pitches, it’s just not his curveball anymore.  Timmy only throws his curveball 9% of the time; however he throws it 16% of the time as his first pitch (second after his fastball), 13% early in the count, 4% with two-strikes, 7% when ahead, and 6% when behind.  Worst yet, the OPP BA on his curveball is .321.  So by these stats, he’s not throwing his curveball when deep into counts, meaning he doesn’t have the confidence in that pitch to throw it for strikes.  And when he does throw the curve, hitters are crushing it, as evident by the high OPP BA.  When compared to his other secondary pitches – the slider and change-up - it’s night and day.  Timmy throws his slider 15% of the time, 12% on first pitch, 14% early in the count, 21% with two-strikes, 19% when ahead, and 12% when behind.  The OPP BA on his slide, .191.  When he throwing his change-up, he throws it 21% of the time, 9% on first pitch, 16% early in the count, 35% with two-strikes, 31% when ahead, and 16% when behind.  The OPP BA on this change-up is .174.  So clearly, Timmy’s two best out-pitches are now his slider and change-up. 

So why even throw the curve, Timmy?  You can make the argument that he has to throw it to keep hitters honest at the plate, but that is insane.  I pulled the same stats on Roy Halladay, and they only chart him for three pitches:  fastball, curve, and change-up.  Halladay’s OPP BA for those three pitches are: fastball is .268, curveball is .173, and change-up is .194.  If you took out Timmy’s curveball, his OPP BA for his three pitches would be: fastball .270, slider .191, and change-up .174.  Roy Halladay overall this season is a 4-4 record with a 3.58 ERA, 1.11 WHIP, and 56 K’s.  Timmy’s painful overall numbers, 2-4 record, 6.04 ERA, 1.59 WHIP, and 53 K’s.  One pitch makes a difference.

                   

I know there are other aspects of Timmy’s pitching that needs more help than just eliminating the curveball from his arsenal.  He needs to fine-tune his mechanics, which we all agree are out-of-whack.  This is not uncommon with Timmy, as this problem has happened in the past.  Normally what happens is that Timmy will go haywire with his mechanics for a couple of starts and his dad, Chris Lincecum, will come down from Seattle, watch some tape with Timmy, and get him back on track.  By the next start, he is back to his old self.  I think it’s about time for Old Lincecum Sr., to come back for a visit.  I also believe that his dad needs to work on Timmy’s mental aspect and pitching approach.  Timmy hasn’t been known as a pitcher who doesn’t go deep into games.  Normally, by the 7^th inning, he has a high pitch count and has to be taken out of the game, leaving the gems he throws up to the bullpen to finish.  I believe Timmy has it in his head that he has to try and pitch to contact instead of strikeouts, in order to save his arm so he can last longer in games.  In 2008, Timmy started 33 games, completing only 2 of them, with 1 shutout.  In 2009, he had 32 starts, 4 complete games, with 2 shutouts.  In 2010 and 2011, he has only 1 complete game, with those being shutouts. 

There is also this notion that Timmy has just peaked, and from here on out we should expect to see a natural regression from him.  I don’t necessarily buy that notion either, especially at his age (27).  In today’s baseball world, tradition baseball stats such as ERA and K’s aren’t viewed the same as they used to be.  With the advent of sabermetrics, we have to look deeper into the stats of a pitcher to see how good he really is.  So, let’s get all analytical and dive into sabermetrics with Timmy.  In 2008 and 2009, when Timmy won back-to-back CY Young Awards, his numbers were:

2008:  ERA 2.62, WHIP 1.172, H/9 7.2, BB/9 3.3, SO 265, SO/9 10.5, BA BIP (BA Balls in Play) .310

2009:  ERA 2.48, WHIP 1.047, H/9 6.7, BB/9 2.7, SO 261, SO/9 10.4, BA BIP .288

Those numbers are plush and hard to argue with.  In 2010, he did experience a regression were those numbers fell, but I think winning a World Series and pitching lights out in the playoffs trumps anything he did in the 2010 regular season, so I won’t post those numbers.  But last season, Timmy got back on track:

2011:  ERA 2.74, WHIP 1.207, H/9 7.3, BB/9 3.6, SO 220, SO/9 9.1, BA BIP .288

While these numbers are obviously not as spectacular as in 2008 and 2009, they are pretty comparable, with the expectation of 1 less K/9 (I would like to note that despite the awful season Timmy is having, his K/9 is back up to 10.0).  So when looking at his 2008, 2009, and 2011 numbers, while a natural regression may occur, we shouldn’t be seeing the type of 2012 season that Timmy is having.   

While I know it's a stretch to make the assertion that Timmy's problems will all of a sudden vanish by just eliminating one pitch that he may throw 9-12 times a game, but I believe Timmy can revert back to form and be a very good pitcher in baseball, even with throwing a 90 MPH fastball.  Many people feel that Timmy can't be an effective pitcher when he throws his fastball at 90 MPH.  But not all pitchers are Justin Verlander and can go 8+ strong and still throw 100 MPH gas in the late innings.  Timmy needs to learn how to adapt and use his arsenal better, i.e. using certain pitches more and some less or not at all.  But Timmy has to change his ways, and it has to start now.  Eliminate the curveball, work on the mechanics, and change the mindset of trying to pitch to contact, and I’m confident that we will see the Timmy of old; The Freak. 

Mr. Armchair Speaking - 
(Stats provided by ESPN.com and BaseballReference.com)