Mock drafts are the hardest post to come up with. You have an idea and feel for what you think teams will do or what direction they will go in, but one wayward team or one off-beat pick, and it completely throws off your mock. I evaluate my picks based off of articles and news clips I see, as well as from what I’ve seen when watching the NFL Scouting Combine. Yes, I actually sat down and watched about 5-6 hours of the NFL Scouting Combine. I watched grown men wearing spandex run 40-yard dashes, do broad jumps and verticals, and see how many times they can bench press 225 pounds; and made notes!!
Every year, I put up my mock draft against the likes of Mel Kiper and Todd McShay, and I like seeing how we all do against each other. My goal with my mock is to get 1/3 to 1/4 of my picks correct. I count a correct pick as either a player getting drafted in the pick I had them or by the team I had them going to, regardless of the number draft pick. I normally come up 1-2 picks behind Mel and McShay; but of course, I don’t have the same resources and rolodex as them.
So I will keep the banter minimal and get you straight to my 2012 NFL Mock Draft.
Final Mock Draft –
1. Indianapolis Colts – Andrew Luck, QB Stanford
He is the best QB prospect coming out of college since John Elway, and some think he may be the best of all-time. Normally when a team has to transition away from a great QB - i.e. Denver Broncos with John Elway or Miami Dolphins with Dan Marino - it cripples the franchise for years. Unfortunately for the Colts, things couldn’t have worked out any better. They get to transition from a QB great in Peyton Manning to Andrew Luck. Must be nice!!! He has the makings to become a Hall of Fame QB.
2. Washington Redskins (from St. Louis Rams) – Robert Griffin III, QB Baylor
Redskin fans can come out of hiding and rejoice. Finally, a team that has done so much wrong in recent years does something so right. They mortgaged the future (this year’s first-round pick, second-round pick, and first-round picks the following two years) to move up and draft RGIII; but it was a move they had to make. The #1a prospect of this draft class and Heisman winner should project to be a very good QB in the NFL, hopefully meaning those first-round picks will be in the low 20’s.
3. Minnesota Vikings – Matt Kalil, OT USC
There is where all mock drafts could be ruined this year. What was once thought to be a lock has now turned into a huge question mark. We all thought Kalil would be the perfect fit for the Vikings, who spent last year’s first-round pick on QB Christian Ponder. You could put Kalil at LT and leave him there for the next 10 years to anchor your O-line and protect Ponders’ blind slide. Apparently, things have changed. Minnesota is now exploring possibly drafting WR Justin Blackmon or CB Morris Claiborne.
4. Cleveland Browns – Trent Richardson, RB Alabama
What makes life easier for a terrible starting QB in the NFL? Turning around a handing off the ball to a stud RB 30 times a game, or trying to throw bad passes to a WR and hope he catches them? I’m going with option A. Richardson has the makings to become a special RB in the NFL. He had a very impressive pro-day, running a good 40-time and show no ill-effects from his knee injury. I know QB and WR are also pressing needs, but they have an extra first-round pick to address those.
5. Tampa Bay Buccaneers – Morris Claiborne, CB LSU
The last of the tier-1 prospects to be drafted, Claiborne is the best CB prospect in the draft and would fill a huge need on the defensive side of the ball. Ronde Barber isn’t getting any younger and Aqib Talib is a head case. They could also go with RB Trent Richardson here if he falls, but I don’t see that happening. In Claiborne, Tampa Bay is getting one of the five elite prospects in the draft. He has great on-the-ball skills and his DB coach at LSU is now with Tampa, so there is a familiarity here already.
6. St. Louis Rams (from Washington Redskins) – Justin Blackmon, WR Oklahoma St.
The Rams couldn’t have played this any better. They trade down with the Washington Redskins, get a boat-load of extra draft picks this year and for the future, and still are able to get Blackmon to be there #1 WR target for QB Sam Bradford. Drafting Blackmon at pick #2 would have been a reach, but getting him at #6 makes drafting him look more reasonable. Some experts aren’t that high on Blackmon, but he is still the #1 WR in the draft and the Rams need to get Bradford a big WR target to throw the ball too.
7. Jacksonville Jaguars – Melvin Ingram, DE / OLB South Carolina
The Jacksonville Jaguars need pass-rushing help in the worst way, as they were ranked tied for 25th in sacks last season. DE Quinton Coples could go here as well - as he may be more talented than Ingram - but Ingram comes with far less off the field baggage than Coples. Jacksonville is known for drafting tough, nose-grinding, stand-up prospects that will come in and immediately make a leadership impact in the locker room. Ingram fits that mold. It also wouldn’t surprise me if they go WR at this spot.
8. Miami Dolphins – Ryan Tannehill, QB Texas A&M
The last time the Miami Dolphins spent a first-round pick on a QB, he (Dan Marino) only went on to set the NFL passing yards record for a season. Now, I don’t Tannehill is Dan Marino, but it shows you how little Miami has done to address their QB problem ever since Marino retired. Miami needs to invest in a franchise QB. Tannehill is definitely a project QB - as he has only started 19 games at QB in college - but his head coach at Texas A&M is now the OC in Miami and I guarantee you he is lobbying hard.
9. Carolina Panthers – Fletcher Cox, DT Mississippi St.
Fletcher Cox has now emerged as the best DT prospect, edging scouting combine monster Dontari Poe from Memphis. The Carolina Panthers need a run-stopping DT to anchor their DL and plug up the middle. Carolina’s defense was 25th last year against the run, allowing an average of 4.6 yards per carry. But Carolina has options, as I can also see them going after WR Michael Floyd from ND to play opposite Steve Smith and giving Cam Newton other target to throw too. ILB Luke Kuechly could go here as well.
10. Buffalo Bills – Michael Floyd, WR Notre Dame
This is where my mock draft will probably get ruined. Ever since the scouting combine, I’ve solidly had Riley Reiff, OT from Iowa, at this spot and I didn’t expect I would change it. And in reality, Buffalo should be drafting Riley Reiff, as they need a LT badly to protect their $50 million Har-Vard QB. While this is a WR heavy draft, it is also an OT heavy draft as well. I can easily see Buffalo taking Floyd here and then either trading up into the late first round to grab an OT or drafting one in the second round.
11. Kansas City Chief – Dontari Poe, DT Memphis
Dontari Poe won this year’s award for most outstanding scouting combine workout. Every year, there is one prospect that just blows every scout away from their workout and their stock shoots up higher than Apples’ did in the early 2000’s. Poe was that guy this year. His stats may not make him worth of getting drafted this high, but his workout does and you can’t pass on this kind of potential. While Kansas City had a good pass defense (6th in the league), their run defense was 26th last year.
12. Seattle Seahawks – Luke Kuechly, ILB Boston College
Seattle needs a pass-rushing DE and Quinton Coples seems to be the logical pick here, but Kuechly is too talented to pass up at this point in the draft. Kuechly is a tackling machine who fills a need at LB for the Seahawks, who released ILB Lofa Tatupu at the beginning of last season. Also, Kuechly doesn’t come with the same off-field baggage like Coples does. If Seattle really wants Coples, they could possibly trade out of this spot and move down to get him. His stock is falling big time.
13. Arizona Cardinals – Riley Reiff, OT Iowa
This is Riley Reiff’s basement here. If Arizona stays put and Reiff falls to them, they should be doing cartwheels in their war room. Arizona’s biggest problem last year was keeping QB Kevin Kolb healthy. After trading away CB Dominque-Rodgers Cromartie and a second-round pick last season to acquire Kolb, they couldn’t keep him upright for most of the season, and had the likes of John Skelton throwing passes to WR Larry Fitzgerald. Arizona does not want a repeat of that this next upcoming season.
14. Dallas Cowboys – Mark Barron, S Alabama
I really wanted to put OG David DeCastro from Stanford here, and he may end up being their pick. But while DeCastro projects out to be an All-Pro OG, the Cowboys will draft Barron for one reason and one reason only. The Philadelphia Eagles draft right after them and supposedly, they are high on Barron. What better way to spoil the draft of your hated rival than taking the guy they covet. Plus, you don’t want to be the team that passes on Barron and then have to face them twice a year, either.
15. Philadelphia Eagles – Michael Brockers, DT LSU
Philadelphia’s ultimate dream is for either S Mark Barron or ILB Luke Kuechly to fall to them here. Unfortunately, I don’t see that playing out, and I can see the Eagles trading up to get the guy they want. If they stay, Brockers is a solid pick here for them. With Fletcher Cox and Dontari Poe off the boar already, Brockers is next in line for DT’s to be drafted. Teaming Brockers up with DT Cullen Jenkins in the middle will really give the Eagles the beef they lacked up the middle on defense.
16. New York Jets – Courtney Upshaw, DE/OLB Alabama
The New York Jets are a prime candidate to move up in the draft to ensure that they get their guy, most likely either S Mark Barron, OT Riley Reiff, or one of the Top 3 DT’s. If they do stay here and the draft plays out like I think it will, they will take Upshaw. The Jets could use another pass-rusher from the outside position, whether it’s from the DE or OLB spot. It’s uncertain which position Upshaw best fits at, but he is very skilled from playing at Alabama and under head coach Nick Saban.
17. Cincinnati Bengals (from Oakland Raiders) – David DeCastro, OG Stanford
I can’t believe I have DeCastro falling this far. The Cincinnati Bengals would be thrilled if DeCastro falls to them here at 17. After drafting WR A.J. Green and QB Andy Dalton last year, DeCastro would fit right in on that O-line and help improve both the running and passing game. He would be an added plus in the run-game, especially with the Bengals committing to running between the tackles. They signed The Law Firm, BenGarvis Green-Ellis, away from the New England Patriots in the offseason.
18. San Diego Chargers – Cordy Glenn, OG/OT Georgia
The San Diego Chargers could go a number of ways here. They could address the D-line and hopefully pick up one of the top 3 DT’s in this draft, or they could go for a pass-rushing DE. They could also try and move up for ILB Luke Kuechly as well. But I feel their greatest need is at O-line, which makes Glenn here the perfect choice. They didn’t resign Marcus McNeil in the offseason, leaving a whole at OT. Glenn could come in and can play either OT or OG, helping them solidify their O-line.
19. Chicago Bears – Quinton Coples, DE UNC
If Coples didn’t have so many off the field issues, he would easily be the first DE/DL takes in this draft. That still may happen based purely on his talent; but from what I’m reading, Coples is a prime candidate to be a bust in this draft. People question his motor and intensity. That said, Chicago needs a pass-rusher opposite Julius Peppers and hopefully the veteran leadership of Peppers and Urlacher can help shape Coples into the talented prospect he could become. WR Kendall Wright is an option as well.
20. Tennessee Titans – Stephon Gilmore, CB South Carolina
The Tennessee Titan’s O-line was terrible last season, especially in the interior. It wouldn’t surprise me one bite to see the Titans trade out of this spot and move down to draft someone like C Peter Konz of Wisconsin to play alongside G Steve Hutchinson, who they picked up via free agency. However, I’m going with Gilmore here. Losing CB Cortland Finnegan will be a huge blow to their defense and Gilmore would be a capable replacement, if he is even here for them. Grabbing a DE is a possibility as well.
21. Cincinnati Bengals – Dre Kirkpatrick, CB Alabama
Going into the draft, the Bengals two most glaring needs were at OG and CB. They already addressed the OG spot with taking DeCastro with the first of their two first-round picks. Here at 21, they have the luxury of sitting back and waiting to see which CB falls to them. They would prefer CB Stephon Gilmore, but would settle for Kirkpatrick. He’s just another first-rounder from that stout National Championship Alabama defense. They could also go WR Kendall Wright from Baylor here to play opposite AJ Green.
22. Cleveland Browns (from Atlanta Falcons) – Kendall Wright, WR Baylor
Cleveland acquired this pick from the Atlanta Falcons last season in the draft-day trade involving WR Julio Jones. The Browns need to desperately upgrade the talent level at their skilled-positions. With their first first-round pick, they went with RB Trent Richardson. Now they upgrade the WR position by taking Wright. Cleveland ranked 24th in passing offense and their leading WR was Greg Little with 61 receptions for 700 yards. Wright would be an instant starter along with Richardson.
23. Detroit Lions – Jonathan Martin, OT Stanford
I’ve had Dre Kirkpatrick penciled in here for the last two months, but with other teams ahead of the Lions in need of CBs, I’m not sure if they will be able to grab him. While CB is a need for the Lions, so is O-line. By drafting Martin, the Lions are adding youth and depth to the O-line. Taking Martin would give the Lions the option of either moving Backus to the interior to finish out his career or playing Martin at OG and moving him to OT after Backus retires. DE Chandler Jones could go here as well.
24. Pittsburgh Steelers – Dont’a Hightower, ILB Alabama
The last of the 5 first-round draft picks from that star-studded Alabama National Championship team, Hightower is a perfect fit for the Steelers. He can read plays and take away passing lanes like no other college ILB. The Steelers need youth on the defensive side of the ball. While the Steelers would prefer to take a 3-4 NT to eventually replace Casey Hampton, Hightower is an impact player who will have an immediate effect on the defense. OT is a must add here as well if one should fall to them.
25. Denver Broncos – Jerel Worthy, DT Michigan St.
There is no other team that has to draft for a need position than the Denver Broncos. Getting a run-stopping DT is essential for them. In last year’s draft, they bypassed on DT Marcell Dareus for OLB Von Miller, and now have no talented DT on their current roster. Worthy would be an instant upgrade for the Broncos at that position. They could also target a RB like Lamar Miller from Miami, Doug Martin from Boise St., or David Wilson from Va. Tech, but Worthy fills the much greater need for them.
26. Houston Texans – Stephen Hill, WR Georgia Tech
Houston’s offense suffered greatly when they lost star WR Andre Johnson for an extended period of time. Hill is a big WR at 6’4” and is a speed threat, but he is very raw talent wise. The knock on him is that he played at Georgia Tech which runs the triple-option, which doesn’t get the WR’s involved on offense all that much, calling into question Hill’s route-running ability and technique. Houston could also go with TE Coby Fleener here as well, as they lost TE Joel Dreessen to free agency.
27. New England Patriots (from New Orleans Saints) – Chandler Jones, DE Syracuse
Despite making the Super Bowl last season, New England ranked 31st in total defense and passing yards allowed. Chandler Jones makes perfect sense here for the Patriots. New England desperately needs a pass rusher and they lost last season’s sack leader DE Mike Anderson in free agency. From what I’m reading, Jones has been rising up draft boards and NFL Network analyst Matt Mayock even has Jones as his 9th rated prospect. If Jones is still around, there is no way New England will pass on him.
28. Green Bay Packers – Whitney Mercilus, DE/OLB Illinois
Green Bay managed to have an even worst defense last season than the New England Patriots. The Packers were last in total defense and passing yards allowed and were in the button 1/3 in sacks. They need a pass-rusher opposite OLB Clay Matthews to help relieve some of the pressure on the secondary. Mercilus is a 3-4 DE/OLB and can get to the QB. He had 16 sacks and 9 forced fumbles last season for Illinois. Shea McClellin, OLB from Boise St. and Nick Perry, OLB from USC are also viable options.
29. Baltimore Ravens – Lavonte David, OLB Nebraska
Frankly, I don’t even know why I’m making a selection, as there is a good chance the Ravens won’t keep this pick. This is prime territory for teams who have already drafted to jump back into the first-round and pick up another player to fill a need. The Cleveland Browns, St. Louis Rams, Indianapolis Colts and other teams with high second-round picks could look to deal with Baltimore. In the off-chance the Ravens stay here, I have them taking David, as defense in the Ravens bread-and-butter.
30. San Francisco 49ers – Kevin Zeitler, OG Wisconsin
The 49ers did a great thing this free agency and offseason in that they set themselves up to not have to draft for a specific need or position like most teams. The 49ers can go in a number of directions. They can target an OG, add depth to the D-Line, take a WR, or simply select the best talent available. They can go anywhere from WR Stephen Hill if he is around, to sleeper OG Amini Silatolu of D-II Midwestern State, to TE Coby Fleener of Stanford. I think Zeitler is the pick, but I’m not confident in it.
31. New England Patriots – Shea McClellin, OLB Boise St.
The Patriots need a lot of everything on the defensive side of the ball. McClellin seems like a Bellichick kind of guy. He is big with good outside quickness. I can also see the Patriots taking a flier on CB Janoris Jenkins from North Alabama, who is extremely talented but has major off-field issues. Bellichick has a history of taking players with off-field issues and somehow getting them to buy into his system. They could also trade down to acquire another first-round pick in next year’s draft.
32. New York Giants – Coby Fleener, TE Stanford
This is a great value pick here. The Giants lost two TE’s to major knee injuries in their Super Bowl victory, so Fleener does fill a need position despite the Giants finishing the season 5th in passing offense. Teaming Fleener up with WR’s Hakeem Nicks and Victor Cruz will only enhance their passing attack that much more. You can line Fleener up split-wide or on the line. The Giants could also go with a RB like Doug Martin from Boise St., but neither he nor any of the other RB’s are worth a first-round pick.
Mr. Armchair Speaking –
I would much rather have Upshaw than Barron, especially since Barron and Sensabaugh play the same type of safety, and honestly name 3 impact safeties. There exactly 2 in the NFL and one cant stay on the field anymore (Polamalu) the other is 54 years old (Reed). Did you know Eric Weddle was a first team All-Pro Safety last year? I don't conisder Weddle that impactful, or Antrel Rolle, Nick Collins, Darren Sharper, Earl Thomas, Michael Huff, or any of the other name ones for that matter. We drafted a safety high once, he was fun to watch for a little while until teams exposed him as the wannabe linebacker he was. I don't want another Roy Williams, I want another Demarcus Ware.
ReplyDeleteThe only reason we dont go with Upshaw is because for whatever reason we didnt let Anthony Spencer and his garbage 6 sacks a year walk and actually franchised him. I wouldn't be unhappy with Kirkpatrick either, I think we are letting Mike Jenkins walk after this year, but we spent 50 mil (26 guaranteed) on Brandon Carr and Orlando Scandrick is one of the highest paid nickel corners this side of Asante Samuel.
DeCastro would help too, but shifting the line to put Tyron Smith on the left side and Doug Free back on the right plus signing some free agents doesn't make this as much of a need as our horrible defense. The Giants win with multiple pass rushers, I'd like to get another actual good one on the other side of DeMarcus as the ultimate priority. I will be very unhappy if we take Barron.