If there is one thing that I love the most about the NFL, maybe all of sports, maybe even my year, it's the NFL Draft. It is over-publicized, over-hyped, much dragged out, and I soak it all up. I read all of the mocks. I read all of the articles and blogs. I watch all of the ESPN specials. I LOVE IT!!! The NFL Draft is one of my many Christmas' of the year. The night before the NFL Draft, I can't sleep a wink. My mind turns with who will be going where or who will try to make a trade to grad their player. I hit the knees the night before the draft and pray that my team (San Francisco 49ers) takes the player that I want them to take. But normally what ends up happening is the player I want them to take they pass on and then that player goes on to get drafted with the next pick and has a great career.
Then draft day comes, and my living room quickly transform into my own personal war room. I lay out all of my mock drafts, spreadsheets, rankings, depth carts, and multiple bags of Lay's potato chips. You might even see me sporting a phone headset, as if I'm working the phones for the 49ers, fielding trade offers and contacting other teams about moving up or down in the draft to assure that we get our guy. I'm right there along with the 49ers brass, straight from my armchair.
Once back in reality, I realize that all I am is a draft honk that gets way too caught up in it. But the one thing I do love to do is create my very own mock draft and then see how I match up with the Kiper's and McShay's of the world. In a world of pundits with insider connections and sources, and who are considered experts in this craft, my goal is to prove that I can swing it just like the rest of them. I do two different mock drafts; one without trade prediction and one with trade predictions. Let's see how I do.
Mr. Armchair's Mock Draft (w/o trades) -
1. Caroline Panthers - Cam Newton, QB Auburn
Analysis: He may not be the best player in this draft, probably not even the best QB, but he is the only franchise changing player. Whether that's a good thing or bad, we'll see. He can be a dynamic player who needs to learn to take a snap from under center in order to succeed. Hopefully, he bucks the trend of unsuccessful spread option QB's.
2. Denver Broncos - Marcell Dareus, DT Alabama
Analysis: The Broncos defensive line was terrible last year, generating little pressure on the QB's, and putting much strain on the secondary. Dareus is by far the best defensive line player in the draft.
3. Buffalo Bills - Blaine Gabbert, QB Missouri
Analysis: This is the perfect time for the Bills to draft a QB, so why not pick the best one in the draft? Fitzpatrick is not the future, but is serviceable for 1-2 years while Gabbert develops.
4. Cincinnati Bengals - Julio Jones, WR Alabama
Analysis: This is scheme pick because A.J. Green is the best WR in the draft, but Jones fits in better with what the Bengals are trying to do offensively.
5. Arizona Cardinals - Von Miller, OLB Texas A&M
Analysis: Their dream comes true in drafting Von Miller. Best pass rusher in the draft will not only help generate pressure on the QB, but will make their talented secondary look that much better. He is a sideline to sideline linebacker as well.
6. Cleveland Browns - A.J. Green, WR Georgia
Analysis: Adding the best WR in the draft to help the development of Colt McCoy is a no brainer.
7. San Francisco 49ers - Patrick Peterson, CB LSU
Analysis: My prayers are answered!!! The best player in the draft falls to the 49ers. A do-everything CB with tremendous upside to be a shut down CB. Shawntae Spencer, welcome to nickel cornerville.
8. Tennessee Titans - Nick Fairley, DT Auburn
Analysis: Showed his potential in the BCS Championship game, but will he have the drive to live up to it? Tennessee better hope so. Keep him as far away from Albert Haynesworth as possible.
9. Dallas Cowboys - Tyron Smith, OT USC
Analysis: Last year proved that the Cowboys will go nowhere without Romo. Protect your greatest asset.
10. Washington Redskins - Robert Quinn, DE UNC
Analysis: If he had played last year, he may be a top 5 pick. Based on pure talent, he is worthy of getting drafted this high. Redskins can't pass on him.
11. Houston Texans - Aldon Smith, DE/OLB Missouri
Analysis: The Houston Texans were last in the league in pass defense, so why not take the next best CB (Amukamara)? Their philosophy: the best remedy for a bad secondary is a great front 4. They better hope so.
12. Minnesota Vikings - Cameron Jordan, DE Cal
Analysis: A bit of a homecoming for Jordan as his dad (Steve Jordan) played TE for the Vikings. Can play both 3-4 and 4-3 DE.
13. Detroit Lions - Prince Amukamara, CB Nebraska
Analysis: Thanksgiving Day game showed that adding to the secondary is a must this draft. Scouts say while Peterson may have more potential, Amukamara is more NFL ready. Solid CB.
14. St. Louis Rams - Corey Liugent, DT Illinois
Analysis: Adding Liugent will help take pressure and blocker away from Chris Long.
15. Miami Dolphins - Mark Ingram, RB Alabama
Analysis: Miami may be losing both Ronnie Brown and Ricky Williams. Why not replace them with another Heisman winning RB.
16. Jacksonville Jaguars - Christian Ponder, QB FSU
Analysis: Jacksonville is known for making shocking picks (Tyson Alualu at #10 last year). After passing on Tebow last year, Jacksonville can't pass on another Florida (FSU though) QB.
17. New England Patriots - Mike Pouncey, OG/C Florida
Analysis: With the uncertain future of Logan Mankins, OG/C becomes a need for the Patriots, and if the younger Pouncey can live up to be as good as his brother, the Pats get a steal here.
18. San Diego Chargers - J.J. Watt, DE Wisconsin
Analysis: Big, strong DE is perfect for the 3-4 defence new D Coordinator Greg Manusky will implement.
19. New York Giants - Gabe Carimi, OT Wisconsin
Analysis: For the Giants to win, they will need to keep Eli upright, and Carimi will also allow David Diehl to move better.
20. Tampa Bay Buccaneers - Da"Quan Bowers, DE Clemson
Analysis: The #1 pick after the college football season ended, can't live down his injured knee. No one knows how truly healthy he is or how long he will hold up. Worth a gamble at #20 however.
21. Kansas City Chiefs - Anthony Castonzo, OT BC
Analysis: With Cassel at QB and Charles at RB emerging into stars, solidifying the O-line is essential.
22. Indianapolis Colts - Nate Solder, OT Colorado
Analysis: The aging Colts OL gets younger with Solder, who will slide in at LT and protect Peyton's blind slide.
23. Philadelphia Eagles - Jimmy Smith, CB Colorado
Analysis: Improving the pass defense is a must for the Eagles. Asante Samuel locks down one side of the field, leaving the other CB expose. Smith is just as talented as Peterson and Amukamara, and the Eagles can't pass on a potential lock down CB.
24. New Orleans Saints - Ryan Kerrigan, DE Purdue
Analysis: When in doubt, add to a line. Kerrigan is a high motor lineman and the best available left on the board.
25. Seattle Seahawks - Jake Locker, QB Washington
Analysis: I know this is highly unlikely, but this has all the makings to actually happen. Homegrown kid, stayed home to play college ball, gets drafted by favorite team. Dreams come true. Locker is the perfect project QB.
26. Baltimore Ravens - Adrian Clayborn, DE Iowa
Analysis: The Ravens are always in the market for solid defensive players. Clayborn adds depth to a strength position.
27. Atlanta Falcons - Justin Houston, DE/OLB Georgia
Analysis: Staying local is the theme of some teams in this draft. Houston is a speed guy and will add depth to the defense. Falcons are also waving the white flag on Jamaal Anderson.
28. New England Patriots - Muhammad Wilkerson, DE/DT Temple
Analysis: A combo DL, Wilkerson has raw talent, but is coming from a D-1AA school. He is a Vince Wilfolk, Ty Warren type of player. He can play both DT and DE in a 3-4 scheme.
29. Chicago Bears - Derek Sherrod, OT Mississippi St.
Analysis: I don't think there was a QB sacked more times this season than Jay Cutler. The Bears can't afford to have what happened to them in the playoffs last season. This pick makes Bears fan and Kristin Cavallari happy.
30. New York Jets - Phil Taylor, DT Baylor
Analysis: Space eater in the middle will take pressure and blockers off of the linebackers.
31. Pittsburgh Steelers - Brandon Harris, CB Miami
Analysis: The Steelers secondary got exposed by Green Bay in the Super Bowl. Big need pick here.
32. Green Bay Packers - Cameron Heyward, DE Ohio St.
Analysis: Green Bay doesn't need to improve as a whole, so just add to a line. Heyward adds depth to the DL. Mr. Armchair's Mock Draft (w/trades) -
1. Carolina Panthers - Cam Newton, QB Auburn
2. Denver Broncos - Marcell Dareus, DT Alabama
3. Buffalo Bills - Blaine Gabbert, QB Missouri
4. *San Francisco 49ers (from Cincinnati Bengals) - Patrick Peterson, CB LSU
5. Arizona Cardinals - Von Miller, OLB Texas A&M
6. Cleveland Browns - A.J. Green, WR Georgia
7. *Cincinnati Bengals (from San Francisco 49ers) - Julio Jones, WR Alabama
8. Tennessee Titans - Nick Fairley, DT Auburn
9. Dallas Cowboys - Tyron Smith, OT USC
10. Washington Redskins - Robert Quinn, DE UNC
11. Houston Texans - Aldon Smith, DE/OLB Missouri
12. *Philadelphia Eagles (from Minnesota Vikings) - Prince Amukamara, CB Nebraska
13. Detroit Lions - Cameron Jordan, DE Cal
14. St. Louis Rams - Corey Liugent, DT Illinois
15. Miami Dolphins - Mark Ingram, RB Alabama
16. *Chicago Bears (from Jacksonville Jaguars) - Gabe Carimi, OT Wisconsin
17. New England Patriots - Mike Pouncey, OG/C Florida
18. San Diego Chargers - J.J. Watt, DE Wisconsin
19. New York Giants - Anthony Castonzo, OT BC
20. Tampa Bay Buccaneers - Da'Quan Bowers, DE Clemson
21. Kansas City Chiefs - Muhammad Wilkerson, DE Temple
22. Indianapolis Colts - Nate Solder, OT Colorado
24. New Orleans Saints - Ryan Kerrigan, DE Purdue
25. Seattle Seahawks - Derek Sherrod, OT Mississippi St.
26. Baltimore Ravens - Jimmy Smith, CB Colorado
27. Atlanta Falcons - Justin Houston, DE/OLB Georgia
28. New England Patriots - Adrian Clayborn, DE Iowa
29. *Jacksonville Jaguars (from Chicago Bears) - Christian Ponder, QB FSU
30. New York Jets - Phil Taylor, DT Baylor
31. *Tennessee Titans (from Pittsburgh Steelers) - Andy Dalton, QB TCU
32. Green Bay Packers - Cameron Heyward, DE Ohio St.
Thanks, Mr. Armchair! Can't wait to see how it shakes out!
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