Thursday, December 22, 2011

Mr. Armchair’s Shortened NBA Preview –

I didn’t think that I would miss it all that much, but now that it is here (officially) and with the NFL regular season wrapping up, I’m glad the NBA is back and ready to get started. If I had it my way, the NBA season would start at Christmas every year from here on out. This way, it doesn't compete with the NFL season and allows me to actually focus on the sport a little more at the start; but it can also use Christmas Day and Night to feature itself and key matchups. Even despite the shortened season, I think this may be an exciting year of basketball. So with a shortened season, here is my shortened NBA preview (I ranked the teams in the Western and Eastern Conferences by how they will finish and how I think they will be seeded in the playoffs).   


Western Conference –

1. Oklahoma City Thunder – The starting lineup may be the best in the NBA, assuming James Harden finally wins the starting shooting guard position. He can hit the open jump shot and has definitely earned the right to be a starter and play alongside Russell Westbrook. The late season addition of Kendrick Perkins gives the Thunder a capable body in the middle that will fight for the tough rebounds and solidify the paint on the defensive end. With decent bench players in Eric Maynor, Daequan Cook, Thabo Sefolosha, Nick Collins, and Nazr Mohammed, the Thunder may be the most well-balanced team in the NBA.

2. San Antonio Spurs – Yes they are old, but they can still play and everyone wants to overlook them every year. This team just happened to finish last season with the best record in the NBA. They ended up losing in the first round of the playoffs, but I think they learned something from that lost and will come back this shortened season and thrive off that lost. The core of Duncan, Parker, and Ginobili are still lethal and now that Tiago Splitter has a full season under his belt, he and DeJuan Blair will help provide the support the Spurs have been looking for to help out the core. Remember, the last time the NBA had a lockout and shortened season, guess who won the NBA Championship that year.

3. Los Angeles Clippers – Well, I figured if I’m going to take some heat and lose readers for putting the Denver Nuggets at my #2 spot in the West, might as well go all-in and alienate everyone by putting the Clippers at #3. I’m not only drinking the kool-aid on the Clippers after their impressive showing against the Lakers, I’m pouring a whole Gatorade bucket filled size on my head. I was asked after the Clippers made the trade for CP3 (Chris Paul) if they were better the Lakers, and at first I said no. But after thinking about it, looking at the talent on the rosters, and seeing highlights from that pre-season beat down, I’m changing my position. CP3, Blake Griffin, Caron Butler, and DeAndre Jordan; enough said.

4. Denver Nuggets – Me, and ESPN’s John Hollinger, are about the only two people who actually think this could happen. Before calling me out, has anyone really looked at the Nuggets roster? Point guard’s Ty Lawson and Andre Miller; shooting guard’s Aaron Afflalo, Rudy Fernandez and Corey Brewer; small forward’s Danilo Gallinari and Jordan Hamilton; power forward’s Al Harrington and Kenneth Faried; and center’s Nene, Timofrey Mozgov, and Chris Anderson. They have a lot of talent on this team and if their young stars start to peak at the same time, look out. It’s on George Karl to somehow put it all together and if he does, they can be a real force in the West.

5. Dallas Mavericks – How can I rank the defending champs so low? It’s not that I think the Mavs aren’t good, but the West is loaded. I think the age, along with not having the presence of Tyson Chandler in the middle, will catch up with this team. I like the Lamar Odom pick up, but when your starting lineup features guys like Brendan Haywood, Vince Carter, and Shawn Marion, how high can I rank you? Brendan Haywood is just a wide body in the paint that takes up space, Vince Carter has been relegated to just being a jump shooter, and Shawn Marion shoots a prayer of a jump shot that defies the laws of geometry (seriously, how does he get that much arch on his jump shot from a Zero degree plain).

6. Los Angeles Lakers – I’ll ask the same question to everyone that I asked of the Denver Nuggets. Has anyone really looked at the Lakers roster? Yeah they have Kobe, yeah they still have Pau Gasol (thanks to the NBA and Commish Stern), yeah they still have the one-legged big man (Andrew Bynum), but the rest of this roster stinks. Metta World Peace, formerly known as Ron Artest and a good basketball player? Sactown’s finest Matty Barnes? Super labor rep Derek Fisher? Christian Laettern 2.0 in Josh McRoberts? Little Stevie Blake? Not even the most naïve, homerest Laker fan can say with a straight face that this is a championship caliber team. Now if they somehow trade for Dwight Howard……

7. Memphis Grizzlies – Coming off their miracle playoff run, they are returning the same young core along with adding a healthy Rudy Gay. This team should be ranked higher, but after putting the Nuggets and Clippers at #2 and #3, I thought I would play it safe with the Grizzlies; but I could easily see this team shooting up the board and leap-frogging some of these older, veteran teams. Mike Conley is finally coming into his own and is an up-and-coming point guard and Zach Randolph seems to have finally matured into the dominate force at power forward that he was thought to be coming out of Michigan State.

8. Portland Trail Blazers – This team has just been getting bad beat after bad beat. First, All-star shooting guard Brandon Roy is forced to retire due to bad knees. Second, first overall pick Greg Oden will miss most of another season. And now, All-star power forward LaMarcus Aldridge may have a heart problem. Can’t help but feel for this team that year after year everyone hopes will take that next step. Despite their losses, they still have enough talent on the roster to land them in the playoffs as the 8th seed. Raymond Felton is better than people think, Gerald Wallace fills up a stat sheet, and they have depth at every position. They will find a way into the playoffs.

9. – 15. – The Houston Rockets (9) will barely miss the playoffs, as this team will be efficient with Kevin Martin and Luis Scola. The Utah Jazz (10) is still too young and I don’t trust Devin Harris at point guard. Love my Sacramento Kings (11), but they are a year or two away from making a serious playoff push. I don’t believe the hype on the Golden State Warriors (12) and they still have no true big man. The Phoenix Suns (13) time has run out and they should off-load Steve Nash for young talent. The Minnesota Timberwolves (14) will die a slow death with Ricky Rubio at point guard. And the New Orleans Hornets (15), while getting a load of talent from the Clippers for CP3, still will be treading water at the bottom of the West division.


Eastern Conference –

1. Miami Heat – Now this is the season that the Big Three will really show their talents. Everyone figured that it would take them a year to get adjusted to playing with each other, and with this being a shorten season, they should make big strides and I look for them to make the NBA Finals again. Along with LBJ, D-Wade, and the Ostrich (Chris Bosh), the Heat added crafty, defensive minded Shane Battier to their starting lineup. Add a healthy Udonis Haslem to the mix of rotation players, and the Heat have a nice supporting cast to run out on the floor along with the obvious Big Three. If they can get one more capable big man to start at Center, this team will definitely hold the Larry O’Brien Trophy.

2. Chicago Bulls – Now that the Bulls finally have their MVP point guard locked up for the foreseeable future, this team can start to worry about how to beat the Heat. They are really the only team that poses any threat to them not making the NBA Finals. Derrick Rose is obviously a top 3 point guard in the league and will take them a long way, but he can’t beat the Heat by himself. Someone else on the roster will have to take the next step forward and be the pick to click this season. Will it be Joakim Noah, a rebounding and shot-blocking machine? Or will Luol Deng finally start to score at the 20 point clip he is supposed to? Someone has to step up and help D-Rose.

3. Boston Celtics – If there is ever a year were the Celtics man-up, clamp down, and goes balls out for another championship, it’s this year. This team simply will not die. They keep fighting and fighting their way into relevancy. But with a shortened season, if they could just put the pedal to the floor and go, they have the players to win the championship. It will require Rondo, Allen, Pierce, and Garnett to have the season of their life, but it could happen. The loss of Jeff Green for the season hurts them a lot, but I like the addition of Brandon Bass over Glenn Davis, and look out for Avery Bradley and E’Twauun Moore to give the Celtics some sneaky good minutes.

4. New York Knicks – This may be a little optimistic for them, but I like the Knicks roster. And in a league driven by superstars, if you have one or two on your team like the Knicks do, you will win ballgames. With the addition of Tyson Chandler to a frontline that already has Amare Stoudemire and Carmelo Anthony, how can you not rank this team in the top 4 of the Eastern Conference division? They keep signing retread point guards in Mike Bibby and Baron Davis in the hopes that they have an ounce of playing ability left, but really their young guards of Toney Douglas, Landry Fields, and rookie Iman Shumpert, are more than capable of playing well enough to get some wins for this team.

5. Orlando Magic – This team can either be really good, or really disappointing. They can either let the whole Dwight Howard situation bring them down, or move on and continue to play good basketball; much like the Denver Nuggets did last season with Carmelo Anthony. I think that Howard will eventually get moved sooner rather than later, and if they get the right pieces in the deal, they can still be a top 4 team in a bad Eastern Conference. They have the talent at the wing positions to still succeed if the Magic were to acquire a capable big man for Howard. I like Ryan Anderson a lot (Go Bears!!), Jason Richardson can still shoot the ball (a lot), and Jameer Nelson can run a capable point.

6. Indiana Pacers – The Indiana Pacers could be the poor man’s Denver Nuggets of the Eastern Conference. They have quietly done a good job at acquiring good young talent. Maybe they are a year away from making the next big jump, but I really like their roster. I am huge on Danny Granger as a scorer in the NBA, they have nice combinations at power forward with David West and Tyler Hansbrough, and at point guard with Darren Collison and George Hill, and Roy Hibbert can build on a nice season last year average 13 points, 8 rebounds, and 2 blocks per game. Paul George moves into the starting lineup this year and should provide even more scoring and athleticism at the wing.

7. Atlanta Hawks – Talk about a young team that is everyone’s pick to click every year. This team has been loaded with young team for that last few years now and hopefully this is the year they can put it all together. No one will argue that the front line of Al Horford, Josh Smith, and Marvin Williams is solid; and Joe Johnson, while his scoring average dipped a little bit last year, is still capable of scoring 20+ points per game. The big question mark for them is at point guard, where they have Kirk Hinrich and Jeff Teague. With Hinrich injured, Teague becomes the de facto starter. Highly talented coming out of Wake Forest, I look for Teague to play well and hold onto the starting job even after Hinrich comes back.

8. Philadelphia 76ers – Someone has to win the last playoff spot in the East and then flame out in three games against the Miami Heat. There wing players are athletic, but they can’t score at all. Andre Iguodala had a down year, only averaging 14 points per game, we don’t know what to expect out of the shooting guard position with Jodie Meeks and Evan Turner, and there big men are inconsistent at best. Elton Brand had a nice bounce back season, but when you have to start either Spencer Hawes or Marreese Speights at center, it’s going to be tough for you to compete down in the low block. The 76ers are set at point guard with Jrue Holiday.

9. – 15. – The Milwaukee Bucks (9) will narrowly miss the playoffs, but the little-big combo of Brandon Jennings and Andrew Bogut will raise eyebrows. The Washington Wizards (10) will also be in the fight for the last playoff spot on the back of John Wall. If the New Jersey Nets (11) somehow are able to trade for Dwight Howard, they will quickly vault up the rankings to number five or six. The Detroit Pistons (12) are still too green to make any serious noise, but expect a good year out of Greg Monroe. I’m not quite sure what the Toronto Raptors (13) are trying to do with their team. And I’m still deciding who has a worst starting lineup and roster: the Charlotte Bobcats (tie 14) or the Cleveland Cavaliers (tie 14).


Eastern Conference Champions: Miami Heat over Chicago Bulls
Western Conference Champions: Oklahoma City Thunder over San Antonio Spurs

NBA Finals: Miami Heat over Oklahoma City Thunder
Summary: After last year’s embarrassment against the Dallas Mavericks, the Heat will come back this season poised, yet eager to avenge their loss. The Heat will take it in six games. It will be 1 of 5, 6, 7 rings for LBJ.

MVP: Kevin Durant, Oklahoma City Thunder
Coach of the Year: George Karl, Denver Nuggets and Vinny Del Negro, Los Angeles Clippers
Rookie of the Year: Jimmer Fredette, Sacramento Kings

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