Mr. Armchair’s 2012 NFL Preview –

All I have to say is, FINALLY!!!  We have the NFL back!!!  And even without a shortened training camp and preseason at that.  The only lockup fans may have to worry about is the one going on with the NFL Officials, and to a certain extent, fans should care about this.  As demonstrated during the preseason, the replacement officials have shown that they are not equip or capable of officiating an NFL game.  Never have I been so appreciative of the NFL officials until I watched these replacement officials officiate a preseason game.  And all this for what, a 401K pension plan and better benefits that when broken down would cost NFL owners pennies on the dollars, maybe even less.  It’s a ridiculous lockout that is occurring and NFL Commissioner Roger GODdell needs to end it.  The health of the players and the play on the field are at jeopardy and it won’t go unnoticed. 

So with that, I’ll keep the opening paragraph short since this is a lengthy post and I’ll get you to Mr. Armchair’s 2012 NFL Preview. 

NFC East –

New York Giants – 10-6

Analysis:  For the most part, the New York Giants remain intact and are returning the core of their 2011 Super Bowl Championship team.  They’ve added speed on offense with rookie RB David Wilson and WR Reuben Randle, Eli Manning is still the QB, WR’s Hakeem Nicks and Victor Cruz are still pass-catching machines, and the defensive is still a monster.  As long as this defense keeps running out Justin Tuck, Jason-Pierre Paul, and Osi Umenyiora on that stout D-Line, it will be hard to score against the Giants.

Philadelphia Eagles – 9-7

Analysis:  The Eagles were a major disappointment last season.  Coming into the season with much hype, the season quickly spiraled down as QB Michael Vick went down to injury and the defense failed to live up to expectations.  If anything positive came from last season, it was that RB LeSean McCoy truly established himself as an elite RB.  But the season will once again hinge on the health of Vick and the defense.  The additions of LB DeMerco Ryan and rookie DT Fletcher Cox will help out with that cause.        

Dallas Cowboys – 6-10

Analysis:  The Cowboys are going to suck!!!  They are a team in shambles and have a brutal schedule.  Along with an already tough conference schedule, their non-divisional schedule consists of the Seahawks, Bucs, Bears, Ravens, Panthers, Falcons, Browns, Bengals, Steelers, and Saints.  Besides the Bucs and the Browns, the Cowboys could very easily lose all those games.  They can’t stay healthy, and Mr. JJ is more concerned with paying babysitters than winning games.  Good luck this year, Professor!!! 

Washington Redskins – 5-11

Analysis:  I may have the Redskins record at 5-11, but it’s going to be a competitive 5-11.  They will go through some growing pains this year with rookie QB Robert Griffin III, but he has all the makings to be a dynamic QB in the NFL.  Their RB situation is a mess, as Head coach Mike Shannanhan can’t seem to just pick a guy and stick with him.  The defense has some building-block, especially at the LB position with Brian Orakpo and Ryan Kerrigan.  They are about a year or two away from being a really good team.         

 

NFC North –

Green Bay Packers – 11-5

Analysis:  This offense is still the most prolific in the NFL.  Aaron Rodger has clearly separated himself as the best QB in the NFL and he has no shortage of weapons at his disposal.  WR’s Greg Jennings and Jordy Nelson are two of the most sure-handed WR’s in the game and watch out for the emergence of WR Randall Cobb.  The defense struggled last season, but the Packers filled most of those needs through the draft, spending their first 6 picks on defensive players.  They are definitely an early Super Bowl favorite.    

Detroit Lions – 10-6

Analysis:  Last season I uttered a phrase that I thought I would never say, “The Detroit Lions will make the playoffs.”  After making the playoffs last season, I can confidently say that the Detroit Lions are now a playoff team.  They are here to stay, and stay for a while.  QB Matthew Stafford and WR Calvin Johnson are the best QB-WR duo in the league and I think the emergence of WR Titus Young and TE Brandon Pettigrew will help take some of the pressure off of Calvin Johnson to do it all.     

Chicago Bears – 9-7

Analysis:  While I do think that the Bears will be a better team this year and last year, I’m not sure if I completely buy the Bears as a playoff team.  While I like reuniting WR Brandon Marshall with his once QB Jay Culter; and the addition of RB Michael Bush will help keep RB Matt Forte healthier this season by taking some of the workload off of Forte’s shoulders, I don’t believe in the play-calling of new OC Mike Tice.  He’s a ground-and-pound play caller and I’m not sure how he will utilize his weapons.   

Minnesota Vikings – 5-11

Analysis:  Like the Redskins, I think the Vikings will play better than their record will indicate.  The Vikings will be a competitive 5-11.  This team is still very young so a playoff run is a year or two away.  They do have some explosive weapons on offense.  If QB Christian Ponder can build off last season and get the ball to WR Percy Harvin and hand the ball off to RB Adrian Peterson, the Vikings will be in every game.  Rookie LT Matt Kalil will help anchor a rebuilding O-line, so keeping Ponder upright may be a challenge.  

NFC South –

Atlanta Falcons – 11-5

Analysis:  The Atlanta Falcons are all in this year, again.  But this year, I think QB Matt Ryan needs to prove that he is a big-time QB.  He puts up nice regular season numbers, but in big games and in the playoffs, he wilts.  And with two stud WR’s in Roddy White and Julio Jones, an aging RB in Michael Turner and aging TE in Tony Gonzalez, and a suspect O-line, there is no time like the present for Ryan to prove he is an upper-tier QB.  If the Falcons don’t have a strong showing this season, when will they?           

New Orleans Saints – 10-6

Analysis:  The Saints have been through a lot this offseason as we all know, but I don’t think the bounty scandal will have as big of an impact of the Saints as people may think.  I just don’t think this Saints team is as good as previous teams and I think the Saints will struggle to get to 10 wins.  I know that sounds weird, but trust me.  Their play on the field won’t be the same.  They also have a brutal stretch where they go at Green Bay, home San Diego, at Tampa, at Denver, home Philly, home Atlanta.     

Carolina Panthers – 9-7

Analysis:  I was never more wrong on any prediction last season than I was about the Carolina Panthers and starting QB and ROY, QB Cam Newton.  Cam was unbelievable last season, having the greatest rookie QB season in NFL history.  He passed for over 4,000 yards, rushed for over 700 yards, and had 35 total TD’s with 14 of those being rushing TD’s.  I really, really want to put the Panthers in the playoffs this year and I think they could surprise some people and make it, but I just can’t.  Not this year. 

Tampa Bay Buccaneers – 5-11

Analysis:  Man was I wrong on the Buccaneers.  I thought they had a nice young core and would make a strong push to make the playoffs.  They ended up finishing last season with a 4-12 record, practically quitting the final games of the season.  With a new Head Coach in Greg Schiano from the college ranked, an awesome incoming draft class, and a couple of big-time free agent pick-ups in OG Carl Nicks and WR Vincent Jackson, the Bucs should see some signs of forward movement this season.              

NFC West –

San Francisco 49ers – 11-5

Analysis:  As a proud 49ers fan, I was never so happy to be so wrong.  I had the 49ers winning 6 games last season, and all they did was go 13-3, win the division, win an epic playoff game against the Saints, and come a punt return fumble away from making the Super Bowl, possibly winning it.  The 49ers won’t win 13 games this season simply because the schedule is much tougher, but the team overall is better with the free agent pick-ups and the dominating defense from last season returns all pieces intact.      

Seattle Seahawks – 8-8

Analysis:  Is it just me, or I’m I the only one who seems to remember that newly appointed starting QB Russell Wilson is a rookie?  People are jumping on the bandwagon after 3 good preseason games against second stringers and beer delivery men.  If I didn’t know any better, I would have thought that Wilson was the #1 pick overall and the second coming of Elway, not Andrew Luck.  I think Wilson is showing signs that he can play, but the Seahawks will be improved because their defense is stellar. 

St. Louis Rams – 5-11

Analysis:  I gave the Rams a three-game bump over last season simply because they have a healthy QB in Sam Bradford and a Head Coach with a proven track record in Jeff Fisher.  Now who exactly Bradford throws the ball too is a different story, but WR’s are a dime-a-dozen in the NFL and someone will emerge as a target.  I still think RB Steven Jackson has something left in the tank and Fisher will make sure to get all that’s left out of him.  The defense is young, but building blocks are there. 

Arizona Cardinals – 3-13

Analysis:  Matt Barkley should start looking at property in Scottsdale.  How can I pick a team to win more than 3 games with John Skelton starting at QB?  Besides WR Larry Fitzgerald, who we all agree is a future HOF’er and can catch passes from anyone throwing the ball to him; the Cardinals next best offensive player may be on defense in CB Patrick Peterson.  Peterson is the Cards punt returner and last season proved that he should not be taken lightly, returning 4 punt returns for TD’s.      

AFC East –

New England – 13-3

Analysis:  The rich only get richer.  After making the Super Bowl, the Patriots only went out and were able to pick up WR Brandon Lloyd via free agency.  Adding Lloyd to an offense that already features WR Wes Welker and TE’s Rob Gronkowski and Aaron Hernandez, gives QB Tom Brady the viable deep-threat the Patriots missed last season.  This offense has the potential to post crazy-like 2007 numbers, when Brady threw for 50 TD’s and the Pats finished the year undefeated.  They are crazy good.       

Buffalo Bills – 10-6

Analysis:  Every year I try to make one bold prediction when picking playoff teams.  Last year, it was the Detroit Lions.  This year, the Buffalo Bills will make the playoffs this season.  They were on track to do so last season, but starting QB Ryan Fitzpatrick went down with a rib injury and was never the same.  I like their defense this season with the addition of DE Mario Williams, and I think WR Steve Johnson can by a dynamic player in the NFL.  Also, I love the RB combo of Fred Jackson and C.J. Spiller.  

New York Jets – 7-9

Analysis:  This team is a mess; and because of it, will not make the playoffs and put a lot of people’s jobs in jeopardy.  It wouldn’t surprise me one bite to see the Jets go through a major overhaul next offseason; front office, coaches, and players.  They are just not talented.  Frankly, don’t be surprise to see #15 underneath Center after the Jets go 3-5 into their bye week and panic.  Their defense will definitely keep them in games; I’m just not convinced they are going to be able to score points for them.      

Miami Dolphins – 3-13

Analysis:  Thank God for Lauren Tannehill (Ryan Tannehill’s wife), or otherwise we would have any reason to watch HBO’s Hardknocks.  They Dolphins are in complete rebuilding mode as this offseason they traded away their two most talented players in WR Brandon Marshall and CB Vonte Davis for draft picks.  I know new Head Coach Joe Philbin is regarded as an offensive genius, but even he won’t be able to get this offense to score more than two touchdowns a game.  Keep showing Lauren Tannehill.    

AFC North –

Baltimore Ravens – 10-6

Analysis:  This is a make or break year for starting QB Joe Flacco.  Entering free agency after the season, the Ravens need to know whether or not they can truly win with him.  I know he’s taken them to the playoffs and they came a missed chip-shot FG away from the Super Bowl last season, but the Ravens have always relied on their stout defense to get them places and as that defense gets older and stalwarts like ILB Ray Lewis get closer to retirement, more of the pressure to win will be on Flacco.

Pittsburgh Steelers – 10-6

Analysis:  I have the Steelers going 10-6, but I don’t feel too good about it and I can easily see the Steelers going more like 8-8 and missing the playoffs.  I’m giving them the benefit of the doubt here because I do believe that Head Coach Mike Tomlin can coach these guys up and have them perform at a playoff caliber level.  Their O-line is still a mess, especially now with the injury to stud rookie OG David DeCastro, and will have a hard time keeping QB Ben Roethlisberger upright.  Cautiously optimistic!      

Cincinnati Bengals – 9-7

Analysis:  The Bengals were just as surprising of a team as the 49ers were in terms of surpassing expectations.  The Bengals shocked the world and finished last season with a 9-7 record and a playoff appearance.  They have been a team that has drafted well the past couple of season and now they are starting to see the fruits of their labor pay off.  Starting QB Andy Dalton and WR A.J. Green look to build off of great rookie seasons.  The book is out of them now, so it’s up to them to step up their play.   

Cleveland Browns – 2-14

Analysis:  This team is going to be bad!!!  After spending one of their two first-round pick last draft to take starting QB Brandon Weeden, they may need to spend the #1 overall pick they’re likely to get this season on QB Matt Barkley.  They did great to get RB Trent Richardson with their other first-round pick, but with a mediocre O-line and shaky QB play by Weeden, defenses are going to stack the box and Richardson will have no room to run.  Expect a lot of 25 carries for 70 yards games out of him.    

AFC South –

Houston Texans – 11-5

Analysis:  The Houston Texans finally made the playoffs!!!  And they did so with their third-string QB unless.  They go into this season with likely the best defense in the AFC Conference.  I worry about their offense though.  Starting QB Matt Schaub and WR Andre Johnson both missed a substantial amount of time last season.  I also think we are down-playing the importance of them losing OT Eric Winston.  If the offense can stay healthy, they can really make some noise this season and be an elite team.

Tennessee Titans – 7-9

Analysis:  Despite CJ2k not living up to his self-imposed expectations and barely finishing the season well enough to claim the title of CJ1K, the Titans finished last season with a record of 9-7 and in the playoff hunt.  I have the Titans losing two more games than last season.  The reason being is that last season’s rookie QB Jake Locker is finally getting the keys to the car and their schedule is harder as well, having to play the Patriots, Chargers, Lions, Steelers, Bills, Bears, Jets, Packers, and division foe Texans twice.     

Indianapolis Colts – 4-12

Analysis:  Last season, I gave the Colts two different records, 9-7 or 2-14.  Unfortunately, or fortunately, depending on how you look at it, the latter prevailed.  Winners of the “Suck of Luck” campaign, a massive overhaul took place in Indy from the top on down.  Everyone is expecting big things this season from starting QB Andrew Luck, and from what we’ve seen this preseason, he looks to be the real deal.  We must remember he is still a rookie and the team is very limited on talent.  Let’s taper expectations.      

Jacksonville Jaguars – 4-12

Analysis:  Like two other teams in their division, the Jaguars are handing over the reigns of the team to a new starting QB.  Last season’s rookie QB Blaine Gabbert will be the starter, and he has targets to throw too in rookie WR Justin Blackmon and free agent pick-up WR Laurent Robinson.  However, the holdout of star RB Maurice Jones-Drew will definitely be a hindrance to the Jags offense.  He has rushed for over 1,300 rushing yards the past three seasons.  For Gabbert’s sake, get MJD signed now!!!

AFC West –

Denver Broncos – 10-6

Analysis:  This offseason, the Broncos made what is probably going to go down as the biggest free agent signing in NFL history when they signed starting QB Peyton Manning.  After spending 14 HOF seasons with the Colts and coming back from a season-ending neck injury, Manning will dawn the orange and blue, and quiet possible may have the most talented group of players he’s ever played with surrounding him.  The Broncos also return a very good defense that kept them in a lot of games last season. 

San Diego Chargers – 8-8

Analysis:  After a disappointing last season, there is no coach in the NFL more in need of a winning season than Norv Turner.  His reigns as the Head Coach of the Chargers will most likely come to an end if he posts another 8-8 record this season.  Much of the success the Chargers hope to have this season will depend on the health of two key players:  star TE Antonio Gates and star RB Ryan Matthews.  Having Matthews start the season on the injury list with a broken clavicle isn’t helping this cause.   

Kansas City Chiefs – 6-10

Analysis:  This team was decimated with injuries last season, losing starting RB Jamaal Charles, starting TE Tony Moeaki, and starting SS Eric Berry; all major contributors to the team the season before.  While they are all coming back, it doesn’t help the fact that the Chief play a brutal schedule, with non-conference games against the Falcons, Bills, Saints, Ravens, Bucs, Steelers, Bengals, and Panthers.  They’ll need starting QB Matt Cassel to shine this season, or they may be QB hunt come next draft.            

 Oakland Raiders – 5-11

Analysis:  It seems like the Raiders have been in rebuilding mode for the last 10 years.  The Raiders are in the first year of what is a “new” 3-year rebuilding process.  This may sound mean or disingenuous, but now that legendary owner Al Davis has pasted, it looks likes the Raiders are heading in the right direction in their rebuilding process.  New GM Reggie McKenzie seems to be making all the right moves and undoing all the wrong ones that were made by the previous administration.  Patience Raiders fans!           

Awards

MVP – Tom Brady, QB New England Patriots

Offensive Player of the Year – Matthew Stafford, QB Detroit Lions

Defensive Player of the Year – Patrick Willis, LB San Francisco 49ers

Offensive Rookie of the Year – Andrew Luck, QB Indianapolis Colts

Defensive Rookie of the Year – Luke Kuechly, LB Carolina Panthers

Head Coach of the Year – Chan Gailey, Buffalo Bills

Playoff Teams

NFC – Giants, Packers, Lions (WC), Falcons, Saints (WC), 49ers

AFC – Patriots, Bills (WC), Ravens, Steelers (WC), Texans, Broncos

Championship Games

NFC – 49ers over Packers

AFC – Patriots over Texans

Super Bowl

49ers over Patriots