Mr. Armchair’s 2012 World Series Preview – Why can’t it happen again?

There is nothing like it.  The joy, jubilation, and pure excitement that you feel when your team makes the World Series.  It can’t be put into words.  It’s a feeling that only intensifies x10 when your team actually wins the World Series; but still, just making the big show is thrilling enough for one person.  It’s a feeling I love, and never gets old.  For the 2^nd time in three years, my San Francisco Giants are going to the World Series, as that complete a remarkable, historic run through the playoffs, winning 6 elimination games.  It started with the Giants falling 0-2 to the Cincinnati Reds, and then winning three straight in Cincy to close out the NLDS.  Then came the mighty defeating World Series Champion St. Louis Cardinals; who took a commanding lead and got ahead of the Giants 3 games to 1 in the NLCS.  Lightening couldn’t strike twice, could it?  Well, it does.  The Giants continued their incredible streak and won the next 3 games to shut the door on the Cardinals in seven games, landing the Giants back in the World Series.  With their backs to the wall, the Giants seem to only get stronger and more resilient.  As a fan, it was maddening to watch; yet felt so sweet and glorious when the outcome fell in our favor. 

With all that being said, the Giants are running into a team that is also playing great ball in their own right.  The Detroit Tigers got hit in the mouth by a very good Oakland A’s team, but their ace and World Series Game 1 starter Justin Verlander punched them back and landed the knock-out blow that ended a remarkable A’s season.  Next up was the New York Yankees; who sat in the corner of the ring and wetted themselves as the Tigers breezed through the Yankees in four games to make the World Series.  Their starting pitching was fantastic in that series, with all four starters having a combined ERA under 1.00.  Watching the Tigers play the Yankees in the ALCS, you would think that they would be unbeatable and whoever goes up against them from the National League would be toast.  They feature the reigning AL CY Young winner and MVP in SP Justin Verlander. They feature what will probably be this year’s AL MVP in 3B Miguel Cabrera, who all he did this season was win the Triple-Crown, something that hasn’t been done in 45 years.  They have speed, power, starting pitching.  They can’t be touched, right.  WRONG!!!   

Keys to the Series –

Justin Verlander – Yes, he is a beast.  Yes, he should probably be the CY Young award winner again this season.  Yes, he has been unhittable this postseason.  Yes, he dates Kate Upton.  But the Giants have been here before.  In 2010, when the Giants won the World Series against the Texas Rangers, all of the pundits in the baseball world and the majority of the nation thought that the Giants would run into a buzz saw by the name of AL CY Young award winner, Cliff Lee.  He was thought to be unhittable, and the Giants were going to have to face him twice in the World Series.  What happened?  The Giants tagged him for seven runs in Game 1 of the World Series, and then tagged him again for another 3 runs in a World Series clinching Game 5.  The Giants had done the unthinkable, beating Cliff Lee twice.  The same thing was said in the NLCS series for the Giants against the Philadelphia Phillies and their ace, Roy Halladay.  All the Giants did in that series was tag Halladay for 4 runs in Game 1 of the NLCS, winning that game and setting the tone for the series.  For the Giants to win in six games, they will need to beat Verlander, or a Verlander-started game, at least once.  Tigers’ manager Jim Leyland has already said that Verlander is only starting Game 1 and Game 5.  The Giants best chance of getting to Verlander would be Game 1.  The Tigers have been on a long layoff of 6 days and the Giants are still riding high and playing with a lot of emotion from their epic Game 7 win over the Cardinals.  They are hot, motivated, and riding a streak.  If they can get to Verlander in Game 1, it sets up really nicely for the Giants for the rest of the series. 

Austin Jackson and Omar Infante or Quintin Berry – Most likely, Austin Jackson and either Omar Infante or Quintin Berry will be the one-two in the Tigers’ batting order.  If the Giants can keep the one-two of the batting order off the base paths, it will force the Tigers’ power bats of Miguel Cabrera and Prince Fielder to bat with no runners on base, making their at-bats a lot less stressful for the Giants pitchers.  Solo home runs are a lot easier to recover from then two or three run bombs.  If the Giants can’t keep Jackson, Infante or Berry off the bases, it could be short outings for the starting pitchers.  Also, especially with Jackson and Berry who have plenty of speed, these guys are base stealing threats and the Giants pitchers are horrible at holding runs on at first.  It wouldn’t surprise me to see the Tigers be aggressive if one of these guys get on base and try to steal.     

Hunter Pence – For much of the postseason, Pence has been a non-factor at the plate, batting under .200 in the Cardinals series.  But in Game 7 against the Cardinals, he came through big-time with two hits, the first being a bases-loaded clearing double.  The second hit was a solid contact single to right field.  The point here is that hopefully this gives Pence confidence at the plate and if he can establish himself early in this series, it will force the Tigers to pitch to Buster Posey, something the Cardinals had the luxury of not doing; which in turn caused Posey to swing at a lot of balls out of the strike zone in order to try and get hits, lowering his batting average.  If Pence can provide protection for Posey, the Tigers will have no choice but to pitch to Buster, and hopefully that will get his bat going as well. 

Brandon Belt, Gregor Blanco, and Brandon Crawford – The Giants don’t win the NLCS against the Cardinals unless they get production from the bottom of their lineup.  Brandon Belt hit .304 with 1 HR, Brandon Crawford hit .217 but he was second on the Giants in RBIs with 5, and Gregor Blanco hit .182 but drew 6 walks, leading the Giants in that category.  They had timely hits at the plate, and also provided the Giants with excellent defense as well.  If the Giants can they get this same kind of production out of these three guys, I think the Giants can live with that.  Also, winning in the postseason is all about matchups.  These three guys are all left-handed batters, which should bode well against an all right-handed starting pitching staff for the Tigers.  If the Giants can win these three matchups, I don’t see how they don’t put up at least 5-6 runs a game, and with their solid bullpen pitching, all take my chances.   

The DH – The Giants have home-field advantage, thank you Melky Cabrera.  This means that the Tigers will have to bat their pitching in games played in San Francisco, and I’m guessing Verlander and Game 2 starter Doug Fister haven’t picked up a bat and took serious swing with it since college ball.  It provides an easy out for the Giants pitchers and I suspect that if the 7^th place hitter in the batting order somehow gets on base with two outs, whoever is batting 8^th will either be intentionally walked or won’t see a pitch 3 feet close to the strike zone.  It also plays into effect with the Tigers defensive alignment.  The Tigers this postseason have been putting Delmon Young, the ALCS MVP and major defensive liability, at the DH spot and have been playing an outfield of either Andy Dirk or Quintin Berry in left, Austin Jackson in center, and Avisail Garcia in right.  For the Tigers to keep Young in the batting order in games played in SF, they will need to put him in left, which only weakens their defense.  In 2010, the Rangers had the same problem with All-Star DH Vladimir Guerrero.  In Game 1 of the Series, the Rangers put Vlad in right field, and that experiment blow up in their face, as he misplayed fly balls all night and committed two errors.  He was eventually replaced for defensive purposes in Game 1, and didn't even start Game 2.  The Tigers might have the same problem with Delmon Young.           

Prediction –

You may, or probably are, going to think this is a homer pick, but I don’t care.  I’m a fan first, and I’m picking my Giants to beat the Tigers in six games.  GIANTS IN 6, BABY!!!  I think the Giants get to Verlander and win a game he starts.  I think the Giants pitching will keep Jackson, Infante or Berry off the base paths.  I think Hunter Pence builds off his incredible Game 7 and starts hitting.  I think the Giants see the same level of production out of the bottom of their lineup that they have been seeing this postseason.  And I think the DH becomes a problem for the Tigers, having to play Delmon Young in the field and having their starting pitchers hit. 

So there it is.  Regardless, it should be a great World Series and fun to watch.  I’ll be rooting hard for my Giants to pull it out, and the champagne shower will be ready.  You have to ask yourself, why can’t it happen again?

Mr. Armchair Speaking!!!