Mr. Armchair’s 2012 World Series Preview – Why can’t it happen again?

There is nothing like it.  The joy, jubilation, and pure excitement that you feel when your team makes the World Series.  It can’t be put into words.  It’s a feeling that only intensifies x10 when your team actually wins the World Series; but still, just making the big show is thrilling enough for one person.  It’s a feeling I love, and never gets old.  For the 2^nd time in three years, my San Francisco Giants are going to the World Series, as that complete a remarkable, historic run through the playoffs, winning 6 elimination games.  It started with the Giants falling 0-2 to the Cincinnati Reds, and then winning three straight in Cincy to close out the NLDS.  Then came the mighty defeating World Series Champion St. Louis Cardinals; who took a commanding lead and got ahead of the Giants 3 games to 1 in the NLCS.  Lightening couldn’t strike twice, could it?  Well, it does.  The Giants continued their incredible streak and won the next 3 games to shut the door on the Cardinals in seven games, landing the Giants back in the World Series.  With their backs to the wall, the Giants seem to only get stronger and more resilient.  As a fan, it was maddening to watch; yet felt so sweet and glorious when the outcome fell in our favor. 

With all that being said, the Giants are running into a team that is also playing great ball in their own right.  The Detroit Tigers got hit in the mouth by a very good Oakland A’s team, but their ace and World Series Game 1 starter Justin Verlander punched them back and landed the knock-out blow that ended a remarkable A’s season.  Next up was the New York Yankees; who sat in the corner of the ring and wetted themselves as the Tigers breezed through the Yankees in four games to make the World Series.  Their starting pitching was fantastic in that series, with all four starters having a combined ERA under 1.00.  Watching the Tigers play the Yankees in the ALCS, you would think that they would be unbeatable and whoever goes up against them from the National League would be toast.  They feature the reigning AL CY Young winner and MVP in SP Justin Verlander. They feature what will probably be this year’s AL MVP in 3B Miguel Cabrera, who all he did this season was win the Triple-Crown, something that hasn’t been done in 45 years.  They have speed, power, starting pitching.  They can’t be touched, right.  WRONG!!!   

Keys to the Series –

Justin Verlander – Yes, he is a beast.  Yes, he should probably be the CY Young award winner again this season.  Yes, he has been unhittable this postseason.  Yes, he dates Kate Upton.  But the Giants have been here before.  In 2010, when the Giants won the World Series against the Texas Rangers, all of the pundits in the baseball world and the majority of the nation thought that the Giants would run into a buzz saw by the name of AL CY Young award winner, Cliff Lee.  He was thought to be unhittable, and the Giants were going to have to face him twice in the World Series.  What happened?  The Giants tagged him for seven runs in Game 1 of the World Series, and then tagged him again for another 3 runs in a World Series clinching Game 5.  The Giants had done the unthinkable, beating Cliff Lee twice.  The same thing was said in the NLCS series for the Giants against the Philadelphia Phillies and their ace, Roy Halladay.  All the Giants did in that series was tag Halladay for 4 runs in Game 1 of the NLCS, winning that game and setting the tone for the series.  For the Giants to win in six games, they will need to beat Verlander, or a Verlander-started game, at least once.  Tigers’ manager Jim Leyland has already said that Verlander is only starting Game 1 and Game 5.  The Giants best chance of getting to Verlander would be Game 1.  The Tigers have been on a long layoff of 6 days and the Giants are still riding high and playing with a lot of emotion from their epic Game 7 win over the Cardinals.  They are hot, motivated, and riding a streak.  If they can get to Verlander in Game 1, it sets up really nicely for the Giants for the rest of the series. 

Austin Jackson and Omar Infante or Quintin Berry – Most likely, Austin Jackson and either Omar Infante or Quintin Berry will be the one-two in the Tigers’ batting order.  If the Giants can keep the one-two of the batting order off the base paths, it will force the Tigers’ power bats of Miguel Cabrera and Prince Fielder to bat with no runners on base, making their at-bats a lot less stressful for the Giants pitchers.  Solo home runs are a lot easier to recover from then two or three run bombs.  If the Giants can’t keep Jackson, Infante or Berry off the bases, it could be short outings for the starting pitchers.  Also, especially with Jackson and Berry who have plenty of speed, these guys are base stealing threats and the Giants pitchers are horrible at holding runs on at first.  It wouldn’t surprise me to see the Tigers be aggressive if one of these guys get on base and try to steal.     

Hunter Pence – For much of the postseason, Pence has been a non-factor at the plate, batting under .200 in the Cardinals series.  But in Game 7 against the Cardinals, he came through big-time with two hits, the first being a bases-loaded clearing double.  The second hit was a solid contact single to right field.  The point here is that hopefully this gives Pence confidence at the plate and if he can establish himself early in this series, it will force the Tigers to pitch to Buster Posey, something the Cardinals had the luxury of not doing; which in turn caused Posey to swing at a lot of balls out of the strike zone in order to try and get hits, lowering his batting average.  If Pence can provide protection for Posey, the Tigers will have no choice but to pitch to Buster, and hopefully that will get his bat going as well. 

Brandon Belt, Gregor Blanco, and Brandon Crawford – The Giants don’t win the NLCS against the Cardinals unless they get production from the bottom of their lineup.  Brandon Belt hit .304 with 1 HR, Brandon Crawford hit .217 but he was second on the Giants in RBIs with 5, and Gregor Blanco hit .182 but drew 6 walks, leading the Giants in that category.  They had timely hits at the plate, and also provided the Giants with excellent defense as well.  If the Giants can they get this same kind of production out of these three guys, I think the Giants can live with that.  Also, winning in the postseason is all about matchups.  These three guys are all left-handed batters, which should bode well against an all right-handed starting pitching staff for the Tigers.  If the Giants can win these three matchups, I don’t see how they don’t put up at least 5-6 runs a game, and with their solid bullpen pitching, all take my chances.   

The DH – The Giants have home-field advantage, thank you Melky Cabrera.  This means that the Tigers will have to bat their pitching in games played in San Francisco, and I’m guessing Verlander and Game 2 starter Doug Fister haven’t picked up a bat and took serious swing with it since college ball.  It provides an easy out for the Giants pitchers and I suspect that if the 7^th place hitter in the batting order somehow gets on base with two outs, whoever is batting 8^th will either be intentionally walked or won’t see a pitch 3 feet close to the strike zone.  It also plays into effect with the Tigers defensive alignment.  The Tigers this postseason have been putting Delmon Young, the ALCS MVP and major defensive liability, at the DH spot and have been playing an outfield of either Andy Dirk or Quintin Berry in left, Austin Jackson in center, and Avisail Garcia in right.  For the Tigers to keep Young in the batting order in games played in SF, they will need to put him in left, which only weakens their defense.  In 2010, the Rangers had the same problem with All-Star DH Vladimir Guerrero.  In Game 1 of the Series, the Rangers put Vlad in right field, and that experiment blow up in their face, as he misplayed fly balls all night and committed two errors.  He was eventually replaced for defensive purposes in Game 1, and didn't even start Game 2.  The Tigers might have the same problem with Delmon Young.           

Prediction –

You may, or probably are, going to think this is a homer pick, but I don’t care.  I’m a fan first, and I’m picking my Giants to beat the Tigers in six games.  GIANTS IN 6, BABY!!!  I think the Giants get to Verlander and win a game he starts.  I think the Giants pitching will keep Jackson, Infante or Berry off the base paths.  I think Hunter Pence builds off his incredible Game 7 and starts hitting.  I think the Giants see the same level of production out of the bottom of their lineup that they have been seeing this postseason.  And I think the DH becomes a problem for the Tigers, having to play Delmon Young in the field and having their starting pitchers hit. 

So there it is.  Regardless, it should be a great World Series and fun to watch.  I’ll be rooting hard for my Giants to pull it out, and the champagne shower will be ready.  You have to ask yourself, why can’t it happen again?

Mr. Armchair Speaking!!! 

Mr. Armchair’s 2012 NFL Preview –

All I have to say is, FINALLY!!!  We have the NFL back!!!  And even without a shortened training camp and preseason at that.  The only lockup fans may have to worry about is the one going on with the NFL Officials, and to a certain extent, fans should care about this.  As demonstrated during the preseason, the replacement officials have shown that they are not equip or capable of officiating an NFL game.  Never have I been so appreciative of the NFL officials until I watched these replacement officials officiate a preseason game.  And all this for what, a 401K pension plan and better benefits that when broken down would cost NFL owners pennies on the dollars, maybe even less.  It’s a ridiculous lockout that is occurring and NFL Commissioner Roger GODdell needs to end it.  The health of the players and the play on the field are at jeopardy and it won’t go unnoticed. 

So with that, I’ll keep the opening paragraph short since this is a lengthy post and I’ll get you to Mr. Armchair’s 2012 NFL Preview. 

NFC East –

New York Giants – 10-6

Analysis:  For the most part, the New York Giants remain intact and are returning the core of their 2011 Super Bowl Championship team.  They’ve added speed on offense with rookie RB David Wilson and WR Reuben Randle, Eli Manning is still the QB, WR’s Hakeem Nicks and Victor Cruz are still pass-catching machines, and the defensive is still a monster.  As long as this defense keeps running out Justin Tuck, Jason-Pierre Paul, and Osi Umenyiora on that stout D-Line, it will be hard to score against the Giants.

Philadelphia Eagles – 9-7

Analysis:  The Eagles were a major disappointment last season.  Coming into the season with much hype, the season quickly spiraled down as QB Michael Vick went down to injury and the defense failed to live up to expectations.  If anything positive came from last season, it was that RB LeSean McCoy truly established himself as an elite RB.  But the season will once again hinge on the health of Vick and the defense.  The additions of LB DeMerco Ryan and rookie DT Fletcher Cox will help out with that cause.        

Dallas Cowboys – 6-10

Analysis:  The Cowboys are going to suck!!!  They are a team in shambles and have a brutal schedule.  Along with an already tough conference schedule, their non-divisional schedule consists of the Seahawks, Bucs, Bears, Ravens, Panthers, Falcons, Browns, Bengals, Steelers, and Saints.  Besides the Bucs and the Browns, the Cowboys could very easily lose all those games.  They can’t stay healthy, and Mr. JJ is more concerned with paying babysitters than winning games.  Good luck this year, Professor!!! 

Washington Redskins – 5-11

Analysis:  I may have the Redskins record at 5-11, but it’s going to be a competitive 5-11.  They will go through some growing pains this year with rookie QB Robert Griffin III, but he has all the makings to be a dynamic QB in the NFL.  Their RB situation is a mess, as Head coach Mike Shannanhan can’t seem to just pick a guy and stick with him.  The defense has some building-block, especially at the LB position with Brian Orakpo and Ryan Kerrigan.  They are about a year or two away from being a really good team.         

 

NFC North –

Green Bay Packers – 11-5

Analysis:  This offense is still the most prolific in the NFL.  Aaron Rodger has clearly separated himself as the best QB in the NFL and he has no shortage of weapons at his disposal.  WR’s Greg Jennings and Jordy Nelson are two of the most sure-handed WR’s in the game and watch out for the emergence of WR Randall Cobb.  The defense struggled last season, but the Packers filled most of those needs through the draft, spending their first 6 picks on defensive players.  They are definitely an early Super Bowl favorite.    

Detroit Lions – 10-6

Analysis:  Last season I uttered a phrase that I thought I would never say, “The Detroit Lions will make the playoffs.”  After making the playoffs last season, I can confidently say that the Detroit Lions are now a playoff team.  They are here to stay, and stay for a while.  QB Matthew Stafford and WR Calvin Johnson are the best QB-WR duo in the league and I think the emergence of WR Titus Young and TE Brandon Pettigrew will help take some of the pressure off of Calvin Johnson to do it all.     

Chicago Bears – 9-7

Analysis:  While I do think that the Bears will be a better team this year and last year, I’m not sure if I completely buy the Bears as a playoff team.  While I like reuniting WR Brandon Marshall with his once QB Jay Culter; and the addition of RB Michael Bush will help keep RB Matt Forte healthier this season by taking some of the workload off of Forte’s shoulders, I don’t believe in the play-calling of new OC Mike Tice.  He’s a ground-and-pound play caller and I’m not sure how he will utilize his weapons.   

Minnesota Vikings – 5-11

Analysis:  Like the Redskins, I think the Vikings will play better than their record will indicate.  The Vikings will be a competitive 5-11.  This team is still very young so a playoff run is a year or two away.  They do have some explosive weapons on offense.  If QB Christian Ponder can build off last season and get the ball to WR Percy Harvin and hand the ball off to RB Adrian Peterson, the Vikings will be in every game.  Rookie LT Matt Kalil will help anchor a rebuilding O-line, so keeping Ponder upright may be a challenge.  

NFC South –

Atlanta Falcons – 11-5

Analysis:  The Atlanta Falcons are all in this year, again.  But this year, I think QB Matt Ryan needs to prove that he is a big-time QB.  He puts up nice regular season numbers, but in big games and in the playoffs, he wilts.  And with two stud WR’s in Roddy White and Julio Jones, an aging RB in Michael Turner and aging TE in Tony Gonzalez, and a suspect O-line, there is no time like the present for Ryan to prove he is an upper-tier QB.  If the Falcons don’t have a strong showing this season, when will they?           

New Orleans Saints – 10-6

Analysis:  The Saints have been through a lot this offseason as we all know, but I don’t think the bounty scandal will have as big of an impact of the Saints as people may think.  I just don’t think this Saints team is as good as previous teams and I think the Saints will struggle to get to 10 wins.  I know that sounds weird, but trust me.  Their play on the field won’t be the same.  They also have a brutal stretch where they go at Green Bay, home San Diego, at Tampa, at Denver, home Philly, home Atlanta.     

Carolina Panthers – 9-7

Analysis:  I was never more wrong on any prediction last season than I was about the Carolina Panthers and starting QB and ROY, QB Cam Newton.  Cam was unbelievable last season, having the greatest rookie QB season in NFL history.  He passed for over 4,000 yards, rushed for over 700 yards, and had 35 total TD’s with 14 of those being rushing TD’s.  I really, really want to put the Panthers in the playoffs this year and I think they could surprise some people and make it, but I just can’t.  Not this year. 

Tampa Bay Buccaneers – 5-11

Analysis:  Man was I wrong on the Buccaneers.  I thought they had a nice young core and would make a strong push to make the playoffs.  They ended up finishing last season with a 4-12 record, practically quitting the final games of the season.  With a new Head Coach in Greg Schiano from the college ranked, an awesome incoming draft class, and a couple of big-time free agent pick-ups in OG Carl Nicks and WR Vincent Jackson, the Bucs should see some signs of forward movement this season.              

NFC West –

San Francisco 49ers – 11-5

Analysis:  As a proud 49ers fan, I was never so happy to be so wrong.  I had the 49ers winning 6 games last season, and all they did was go 13-3, win the division, win an epic playoff game against the Saints, and come a punt return fumble away from making the Super Bowl, possibly winning it.  The 49ers won’t win 13 games this season simply because the schedule is much tougher, but the team overall is better with the free agent pick-ups and the dominating defense from last season returns all pieces intact.      

Seattle Seahawks – 8-8

Analysis:  Is it just me, or I’m I the only one who seems to remember that newly appointed starting QB Russell Wilson is a rookie?  People are jumping on the bandwagon after 3 good preseason games against second stringers and beer delivery men.  If I didn’t know any better, I would have thought that Wilson was the #1 pick overall and the second coming of Elway, not Andrew Luck.  I think Wilson is showing signs that he can play, but the Seahawks will be improved because their defense is stellar. 

St. Louis Rams – 5-11

Analysis:  I gave the Rams a three-game bump over last season simply because they have a healthy QB in Sam Bradford and a Head Coach with a proven track record in Jeff Fisher.  Now who exactly Bradford throws the ball too is a different story, but WR’s are a dime-a-dozen in the NFL and someone will emerge as a target.  I still think RB Steven Jackson has something left in the tank and Fisher will make sure to get all that’s left out of him.  The defense is young, but building blocks are there. 

Arizona Cardinals – 3-13

Analysis:  Matt Barkley should start looking at property in Scottsdale.  How can I pick a team to win more than 3 games with John Skelton starting at QB?  Besides WR Larry Fitzgerald, who we all agree is a future HOF’er and can catch passes from anyone throwing the ball to him; the Cardinals next best offensive player may be on defense in CB Patrick Peterson.  Peterson is the Cards punt returner and last season proved that he should not be taken lightly, returning 4 punt returns for TD’s.      

AFC East –

New England – 13-3

Analysis:  The rich only get richer.  After making the Super Bowl, the Patriots only went out and were able to pick up WR Brandon Lloyd via free agency.  Adding Lloyd to an offense that already features WR Wes Welker and TE’s Rob Gronkowski and Aaron Hernandez, gives QB Tom Brady the viable deep-threat the Patriots missed last season.  This offense has the potential to post crazy-like 2007 numbers, when Brady threw for 50 TD’s and the Pats finished the year undefeated.  They are crazy good.       

Buffalo Bills – 10-6

Analysis:  Every year I try to make one bold prediction when picking playoff teams.  Last year, it was the Detroit Lions.  This year, the Buffalo Bills will make the playoffs this season.  They were on track to do so last season, but starting QB Ryan Fitzpatrick went down with a rib injury and was never the same.  I like their defense this season with the addition of DE Mario Williams, and I think WR Steve Johnson can by a dynamic player in the NFL.  Also, I love the RB combo of Fred Jackson and C.J. Spiller.  

New York Jets – 7-9

Analysis:  This team is a mess; and because of it, will not make the playoffs and put a lot of people’s jobs in jeopardy.  It wouldn’t surprise me one bite to see the Jets go through a major overhaul next offseason; front office, coaches, and players.  They are just not talented.  Frankly, don’t be surprise to see #15 underneath Center after the Jets go 3-5 into their bye week and panic.  Their defense will definitely keep them in games; I’m just not convinced they are going to be able to score points for them.      

Miami Dolphins – 3-13

Analysis:  Thank God for Lauren Tannehill (Ryan Tannehill’s wife), or otherwise we would have any reason to watch HBO’s Hardknocks.  They Dolphins are in complete rebuilding mode as this offseason they traded away their two most talented players in WR Brandon Marshall and CB Vonte Davis for draft picks.  I know new Head Coach Joe Philbin is regarded as an offensive genius, but even he won’t be able to get this offense to score more than two touchdowns a game.  Keep showing Lauren Tannehill.    

AFC North –

Baltimore Ravens – 10-6

Analysis:  This is a make or break year for starting QB Joe Flacco.  Entering free agency after the season, the Ravens need to know whether or not they can truly win with him.  I know he’s taken them to the playoffs and they came a missed chip-shot FG away from the Super Bowl last season, but the Ravens have always relied on their stout defense to get them places and as that defense gets older and stalwarts like ILB Ray Lewis get closer to retirement, more of the pressure to win will be on Flacco.

Pittsburgh Steelers – 10-6

Analysis:  I have the Steelers going 10-6, but I don’t feel too good about it and I can easily see the Steelers going more like 8-8 and missing the playoffs.  I’m giving them the benefit of the doubt here because I do believe that Head Coach Mike Tomlin can coach these guys up and have them perform at a playoff caliber level.  Their O-line is still a mess, especially now with the injury to stud rookie OG David DeCastro, and will have a hard time keeping QB Ben Roethlisberger upright.  Cautiously optimistic!      

Cincinnati Bengals – 9-7

Analysis:  The Bengals were just as surprising of a team as the 49ers were in terms of surpassing expectations.  The Bengals shocked the world and finished last season with a 9-7 record and a playoff appearance.  They have been a team that has drafted well the past couple of season and now they are starting to see the fruits of their labor pay off.  Starting QB Andy Dalton and WR A.J. Green look to build off of great rookie seasons.  The book is out of them now, so it’s up to them to step up their play.   

Cleveland Browns – 2-14

Analysis:  This team is going to be bad!!!  After spending one of their two first-round pick last draft to take starting QB Brandon Weeden, they may need to spend the #1 overall pick they’re likely to get this season on QB Matt Barkley.  They did great to get RB Trent Richardson with their other first-round pick, but with a mediocre O-line and shaky QB play by Weeden, defenses are going to stack the box and Richardson will have no room to run.  Expect a lot of 25 carries for 70 yards games out of him.    

AFC South –

Houston Texans – 11-5

Analysis:  The Houston Texans finally made the playoffs!!!  And they did so with their third-string QB unless.  They go into this season with likely the best defense in the AFC Conference.  I worry about their offense though.  Starting QB Matt Schaub and WR Andre Johnson both missed a substantial amount of time last season.  I also think we are down-playing the importance of them losing OT Eric Winston.  If the offense can stay healthy, they can really make some noise this season and be an elite team.

Tennessee Titans – 7-9

Analysis:  Despite CJ2k not living up to his self-imposed expectations and barely finishing the season well enough to claim the title of CJ1K, the Titans finished last season with a record of 9-7 and in the playoff hunt.  I have the Titans losing two more games than last season.  The reason being is that last season’s rookie QB Jake Locker is finally getting the keys to the car and their schedule is harder as well, having to play the Patriots, Chargers, Lions, Steelers, Bills, Bears, Jets, Packers, and division foe Texans twice.     

Indianapolis Colts – 4-12

Analysis:  Last season, I gave the Colts two different records, 9-7 or 2-14.  Unfortunately, or fortunately, depending on how you look at it, the latter prevailed.  Winners of the “Suck of Luck” campaign, a massive overhaul took place in Indy from the top on down.  Everyone is expecting big things this season from starting QB Andrew Luck, and from what we’ve seen this preseason, he looks to be the real deal.  We must remember he is still a rookie and the team is very limited on talent.  Let’s taper expectations.      

Jacksonville Jaguars – 4-12

Analysis:  Like two other teams in their division, the Jaguars are handing over the reigns of the team to a new starting QB.  Last season’s rookie QB Blaine Gabbert will be the starter, and he has targets to throw too in rookie WR Justin Blackmon and free agent pick-up WR Laurent Robinson.  However, the holdout of star RB Maurice Jones-Drew will definitely be a hindrance to the Jags offense.  He has rushed for over 1,300 rushing yards the past three seasons.  For Gabbert’s sake, get MJD signed now!!!

AFC West –

Denver Broncos – 10-6

Analysis:  This offseason, the Broncos made what is probably going to go down as the biggest free agent signing in NFL history when they signed starting QB Peyton Manning.  After spending 14 HOF seasons with the Colts and coming back from a season-ending neck injury, Manning will dawn the orange and blue, and quiet possible may have the most talented group of players he’s ever played with surrounding him.  The Broncos also return a very good defense that kept them in a lot of games last season. 

San Diego Chargers – 8-8

Analysis:  After a disappointing last season, there is no coach in the NFL more in need of a winning season than Norv Turner.  His reigns as the Head Coach of the Chargers will most likely come to an end if he posts another 8-8 record this season.  Much of the success the Chargers hope to have this season will depend on the health of two key players:  star TE Antonio Gates and star RB Ryan Matthews.  Having Matthews start the season on the injury list with a broken clavicle isn’t helping this cause.   

Kansas City Chiefs – 6-10

Analysis:  This team was decimated with injuries last season, losing starting RB Jamaal Charles, starting TE Tony Moeaki, and starting SS Eric Berry; all major contributors to the team the season before.  While they are all coming back, it doesn’t help the fact that the Chief play a brutal schedule, with non-conference games against the Falcons, Bills, Saints, Ravens, Bucs, Steelers, Bengals, and Panthers.  They’ll need starting QB Matt Cassel to shine this season, or they may be QB hunt come next draft.            

 Oakland Raiders – 5-11

Analysis:  It seems like the Raiders have been in rebuilding mode for the last 10 years.  The Raiders are in the first year of what is a “new” 3-year rebuilding process.  This may sound mean or disingenuous, but now that legendary owner Al Davis has pasted, it looks likes the Raiders are heading in the right direction in their rebuilding process.  New GM Reggie McKenzie seems to be making all the right moves and undoing all the wrong ones that were made by the previous administration.  Patience Raiders fans!           

Awards

MVP – Tom Brady, QB New England Patriots

Offensive Player of the Year – Matthew Stafford, QB Detroit Lions

Defensive Player of the Year – Patrick Willis, LB San Francisco 49ers

Offensive Rookie of the Year – Andrew Luck, QB Indianapolis Colts

Defensive Rookie of the Year – Luke Kuechly, LB Carolina Panthers

Head Coach of the Year – Chan Gailey, Buffalo Bills

Playoff Teams

NFC – Giants, Packers, Lions (WC), Falcons, Saints (WC), 49ers

AFC – Patriots, Bills (WC), Ravens, Steelers (WC), Texans, Broncos

Championship Games

NFC – 49ers over Packers

AFC – Patriots over Texans

Super Bowl

49ers over Patriots

Mr. Armchair’s 2012 College Football Preview – There Is A God!!!

There is a God!!!  And he is good!!!  We finally will have a playoff system!!!  Debuting in 2014, there will be a 4-team playoff system that will, for once and for all, determine who will be the true National Champions of College Football.  While it’s not an 8-team playoff, which seems more logical, I’m not complaining because at least it’s a start.  At least we have movement in the right direction.  The system can be fixed and corrected along the way, like having a committee pick the 4-teams to play in the playoffs, but for now, at least we can see the light at the end of the tunnel when before we couldn’t even see the tunnel. 

The current BCS system has undoubtedly been a complete flop.  Throughout the years, it has enraged people with its maddening calculations to determine - based off of coaches polls, margin of victory, strength of schedule, opponents strength of schedule, and other factors - which teams should be playing in the major bowl games and in the all-coveted BCS National Championship game.  While it created much debate and talk, which in a sense I guess kept it relevant, it was often times more wrong than right.  This led too much national debate over whether or not the system actually works.  In the end, the only rational conclusion and the only true way of determining who should play in the BCS National Championship game is to have a playoff.  Well, now we have it, and in 2014, all will be right in the world, mostly....        

So here it finally is, Mr. Armchair’s 2012 College Football Preview.

1.       Alabama – The SEC has had a team in the BCS National Championship game the last 6 years, and I’m banking that they are going to make it 7.  I have a rule for each sport to never bet against a certain player or coach no matter the circumstance or situation.  In college football, it's too never bet against Saban.  While they lost a lot of star power to the NFL Draft on defense, Alabama never rebuilds, they reload with better.  Senior FS Robert Lester and Junior LB C.J. Mosley will lead the Bama defense this year, and with Junior QB AJ McCarron and Senior OC Barrett Jones returning on offense, Bama looks to be as strong as ever to defense their Championship.   

2.       LSU – Yeah LSU may have just dismissed last year’s Heisman Trophy finalist, Junior DB Tyrann Mathieu, but when you can let a player of his caliber go and have your defense still be considered tops in the nation, you know you have talent on that side of the ball; and LSU does.  Their defense may be better than last years, featuring a stout D-line with Junior DE’s Sam Montgomery and my favorite player to watch this year, Barkevious Mingo.  Throw in the fact that LSU may have the best offense it's ever had under Head Coach Les Miles, which will finally feature a true pocket-passing QB in Junior Zach Mettenberger.  

3.       USC – Let me get my bias rant out of the way here.  USC, blah, blah, blah…Matt Barkely, woo-hoo, woo-hoo…Fight On, Fight On, Victory, Victory, yeah, yeah, yeah we get it.  Ok, now that I got that out, USC has 14 returning starters (8 offensive, 6 defensive) and the favorite to win the Heisman Trophy and be the #1 pick in next year's NFL Draft in Senior QB Matt Barkley.  While he is no Andrew Luck, Barkley is great in his own right and with WR’s Robert Woods and Marqise Lee, he should put up some godly numbers.  They still have concerns at the RB position, as none of the RB’s they’ve recruited (minus Silas Redd) has any official NCAA carries.  And of course, Lane Kiffin is still there Head Coach.      

4.       Florida St. – People are really under-selling FSU this year.  They could very easily make it to the BCS National Championship game.  Schedule-wise, FSU has one of the easiest paths to the BCS National Championship game, as their only real tough road game is against Va. Tech.  If Senior QB EJ Manuel can finally somehow put it all together like we've been waiting for him to do and lead this offense to score some points, FSU’s defense is right up there with Bama and LSU and could vault them into the National Championship game.  Senior DE Brandon Jenkins and Junior DE Bjoern Werner are as good of a combo as any and don’t forget #1 national recruit DE Mario Edwards. 

5.       Oregon – For either Oregon or USC to make the BCS National Championship game, they’ll have to beat each other twice.  When you talk about Oregon, you are talking about speed, speed, and more speed.  They may have the fastest player in the country in Sophomore RB D’Anthony Thomas, and of course are returning Senior RB Kenjon Barner.  A lot of weight though bears on the shoulders of redshirt Freshman QB Marcus Mariota.  Their schedule is very light to start, as their first 6 games are in Eugene, so Mariota will have some time to adapt to playing the position and learning the pistol-spread offense Head Coach Chip Kelly loves to run. 

6.       Oklahoma – Like USC, the Sooners have their stud, Heisman candidate QB returning for his senior year in Landry Jones.  First making his mark as a freshman when QB Sam Bradford went down with a season-ending shoulder injury in the first game of the 2009 season, Jones has blossomed into a first-round caliber NFL QB.  With Mike Stoops returning to Oklahoma to serve as defensive coordinator, the same position he held at Oklahoma in the early 2000’s, Sooner fans are hoping for the same returning stud defense they were used too when he was there.

7.       South Carolina – The dark horse to win the SEC Conference, this could be the best team that head coach Steve Spurrier has ever had at S. Carolina.  They have a 5-game brutal stretch of games starting at home against Georgia, at LSU, at Florida, home against Tennessee, and home against Arkansas, but they don’t face Alabama this season.  Junior QB Connor Shaw will be the starting QB week 1 and won’t have to worry about dope-head Stephen Garcia infringing on his playing time.  And of course, they are returning Heisman candidate RB, Senior Marcus Lattimore.

8.       Wisconsin – Every year it seems like all Wisconsin does is find themselves in the Big Ten Championship game, and somehow every year make the Rose Bowl.  There is no reason why Wisconsin can’t do the same this year and make it to a third Rose Bowl appearance.  Their schedule is very favorable, as they don’t play Michigan during the regular season and have home games against Michigan St. and Ohio St.  They are returning Heisman candidate Senior RB Montee Ball, who last season only led the nation in rushing yards (1,923) and only scored 39 TD’s. 

9.       Georgia – I don’t think I’ve seen an easier SEC schedule in my life than the one Georgia gets to play this season.  No Alabama, no Arkansas, and no LSU.  Seriously!!  Their only tough games are at S. Carolina and at Auburn.  The loss of Sophomore RB Isaiah Crowell (dismissed from team) will hurt Georgia, but a lot still will hinge on the play of Junior QB Andy Murray, who has thrown for more than 3,000 yards the last two seasons, and Georgia’s defense, which is returning 10 starters.  If the stars align, Georgia could easily waltz into the SEC Championship game.

10.   Michigan – Well, they’re guaranteed to start the season with a lost, as they open up the year in Dallas playing against defending National Champions Alabama.  In head coach Brady Hoke’s first season, he definitely made an impression, finishing the year with a record of 11-2 and making a BCS Bowl Game, defeating Va. Tech in the Sugar Bowl.  They are returning one of the most exciting players in the country in Senior QB Denard Robinson, who if he continues to improve his all-around game, will find himself in New York at the Sports Museum of America (Heisman).      

11.   Arkansas – Arkansas has a lot of offensive fire-power returning to its team.  Talented QB Tyler Wilson is returning for his senior season and the Razorbacks are getting back the SEC’s leading rusher from 2010 in Junior RB Knile Davis.  Davis missed all of last season with a knee injury.  While scoring points won’t be the issue in theory, many will still be watching to see how this team’s play on the field will be effected by all of the off-season issues they had to endure with their former head coach Bobby Petrino.   

12.   Michigan St. – Their defense is good.  Really good!!!  The defense is returning 8 starters and it’s led by All-American Defensive End William Gholston, who has NFL first-round talent written all over him.  But the big question mark will be on offense, where they only return 4 starters, one of them being new Junior QB Andrew Maxwell.  A backup for the past two seasons behind Kirk Cousins, he is now in command and if he were smart, he would lean heavily on Junior RB Le’Veon Bell.  Like Maxwell, he too is finally being given the chance to start full-time.      

13.   Stanford – After losing probably the most-talented QB of our generation in Andrew Luck to the NFL Draft (#1 pick overall), Stanford is bound to take a step or two back this season.  However, they still have a lot of talent at the skilled positions and their defense is underrated, led by Senior LB Chase Thomas.  Stanford will try to break in Luck’s replacement, Junior QB Josh Nunes, and a big key to that will be Senior RB Stepfan Taylor, who will be getting a lot of work this season.  Sophomore WR Ty Montgomery is very talented and primed for a breakout season.    

14.    Va. Tech – For Va. Tech to win this season they will rely heavily on Beamer Ball, as Va. Tech is returning 9 starters on defense.  While the defense looks to be intact, it’s the offensive side of the ball which everyone will be anxious to see.  The offense lost last season’s ACC Offensive Player of the Year in RB David Wilson to the NFL Draft, but with all that being said and only returning 3 starters, no one seems to be worried.  That is because Va. Tech is returning starting Junior QB Logan Thomas, who is supposedly better than Michael Vick was at Va. Tech.    

15.   W. Virginia – W. Virginia is returning 15 starters (8 offensive, 7 defensive), none more important than returning seniors, QB Geno Smith and WR Tavon Austin.  In 2011, Smith threw for 4,335 yards and 31 TD’s and Austin lead the nation in all-purpose yards.  But all of this was done last season in the Big East Conference; a conference many would argue is sub-par when compared to the powerful Big 12 Conference W. Virginia will be playing in this season.  It will be very interesting to see how all this speed will hold up in the Big 12.

National Championship Winner:  Alabama over USC

Heisman Winner:  Matt Barkley, QB  USC (very close second – Montee Ball, RB  Wisconsin)

Mr. Armchair Speaking!!! 

Oh, what could have been? –

Angel Pagan – CF

Marco Scutaro – SS

Melky Cabrera – LF

Buster Posey – C

Pablo Sandoval – 3B

Hunter Pence – RF

Brandon Belt – 1B

Brandon Crawford – SS

Starting Pitcher

This was the lineup that all Giants' fans have been waiting to see.  A perfect balance of power, contact hitting, and speed.  Not since 2002 and the Aurilla, Kent, Bonds, Sanders, Snow lineup or maybe even 1993 and the Thompson, Clark, Williams, Bonds team has a Giants lineup been so potent.  This was supposed to be the lineup that would lead the Giants into the playoffs and possibly another World Series run.  This lineup, lasted only one game. 

Today, Major League Baseball announced that Giants left fielder Melky Cabrera will be suspended 50 games for testing positive for PED’s (Performing Enhancing Drugs), more specifically testosterone.  And unlike the Ryan Braun situation, there will be no appeal process, no technically, no arbitrator to intervene.  Melky Cabrera is done for the year; and along with Melky, possibly the Giants playoff hopes. 

In all likelihood, Melky has played his last game in a San Francisco Giants uniform.  A free agent after this season, talks of a possible extension had made its way into the news headlines, but was quickly tabled by both the Giants and Melky.  They were supposed to resume the talks in the offseason, but those talks will unlikely occur now.  Before the suspension, Melky was batting .346 (AVG) with 11HR, 60 RBI, and a .906 OBS, an MVP type season, and most likely on his way to a lucrative pay-day from the Giants.  After today, I don’t see any way the Giants resign him after this incident.  Just as the Giants were finally ridding themselves of the alleged Barry Bonds scandal, the last thing they need to do is get involved with another player associated with PED’s.

So where do the Giants go from here?  They will most likely finish out the season with a platoon in left field of Gregor Blanco, Brett Pill, or some other minor-leaguer, and hopefully the team can rally around each other and still make a strong push for the division title and a playoff berth.  But the odds are greatly stacked against them.  They’ll need Buster to stay hot and keep hitting at the rate he has been since the All-Star break.  They’ll need Pablo to return from his injury and continue to hit like he does.  They’ll need Hunter Pence to get on a roll and help pick up the slack.  And hopefully Brandon Belt can build on his recent hot-hitting streak, where he is nearly batting .500 (AVG).  All the chips have to fall the right way, all the breaks need to break in their favor, and the baseball Gods will need to shine down upon them.  Is it impossible?  No, not with their starting pitching and bullpen; but it’s going to be tough. 

If worse comes to worse and the Giants do fail to make the playoffs, at the very least from all this, they will have money to spend in the offseason to go out and find Melky’s replacement, and I have no doubt in my mind that they will.  The Giants will have money to spend and the one name that comes to my mind - and I would do cartwheels if this were to happen (not pretty, but I would do them) – is Michael Bourn.  Currently on the Atlanta Braves, he is the perfect center fielder and leadoff man for the Giants.  He has a .292 AVG, with 9 HRs, 50 RBIs, 31 SBs, and a .353 OBP.  Having him at the top of the lineup would be ideal.  The Giants can still resign current centerfielder Angel Pagan, who is also a free agent after this season, and move him to left and maybe bat him second in the order.  A lineup featuring Bourn, Pagan, Panda, Buster, Pence, Belt, Scutaro, Crawford, is a very solid lineup.  But whether it’s Bourn or another outfielder, the Giants will be able to use the money supposedly set aside for Melky on a very capable replacement; so in the long term, I think the Giants will survive this fallout.           

To his credit, I’m glad to see that Melky admitted his fault and took full responsibility for his actions.  He let the Giants organization, his teammates, the fans, the Melkmen (and Melkwomen), and most importantly his family and himself down, and he owned up to it.  I’m sure Melky will move on and find another team to sign with, but I'm confident it won’t be with the Giants, and it won’t be for nearly the type of pay-out he was expecting.  I like what ESPN's Buster Olney tweeted out on his twitter page, “Melky was like a bank robber who did everything right in his plan to steal million – right up until the moment his getaway car ran out of gas.”

Angel Pagan – CF

Marco Scutaro – SS

Melky Cabrera – LF

Buster Posey – C

Pablo Sandoval – 3B

Hunter Pence – RF

Brandon Belt – 1B

Brandon Crawford – SS

Starting Pitcher

I would’ve liked to have seen this lineup play together.  Oh, what could have been…?    

Mr. Armchair Speaking –

    

Penn State Will Be Made Whole Again; The Victim’s won’t –

Today was judgment day for Pennsylvania State University, also known more commonly to us as Penn State.  As the fallout from the Jerry Sandusky scandal continues, NCAA President, Mark Emmert, leveled Penn State with what some are calling the most severe penalties ever handed down by the NCAA.  Penn State’s punishment:  $60 million sanction, four-year bowl game ban, vacating all wins from 1998-2011 (112 wins in total), and lose of scholarships (10 initial and 20 total per year for a four-year period).  Current Penn State football players are given the opportunity to transfer to other school they want to and can play their immediately (normal transfer rules state that a player must sit out a year before resuming play).  The Penn State Athletic Department will also be on probation for five-years.  These penalties will undoubtedly cripple the Penn State football program in the years to come; but many still wonder, was it enough? 

Dan Wetzel of Yahoo! Sports called today’s penalties worse than the Death Penalty (for those of you unfamiliar with the Death Penalty, it’s when the NCAA completely shuts down a school’s football program).  The only time the NCAA handed down the Death Penalty as a punishment to a football program was in the early 80's against SMU (Southern Methodist University), when it was found that SMU was paying high school recruits to attend there school.  I’m not sure if I agree with Wetzel.  On the surface, today's announcement sounds like a stiff penalty.  But when you take a step back and really examine what was lost here, I don’t think this was enough.  Let’s go through each penalty:

$60 million sanction – the $60 million is to be paid over a period of five-years, $12 million per year, and is the equivalent to the average annual revenues that the Penn State football program generates for the school.  The $60 million must be paid into an endowment to help fund programs for child abuse victims and cannot come from non-revenue sports or cannot come from scholarships being taken away. 

Four-year bowl game ban – Penn State is prohibited from participating in any post-season bowl games, despite win-loss record.  Additionally, the Big Ten Conference announced that Penn State is not eligible for any of the conference’s bowl revenue over that time span.  Penn State is also not eligible to play in their conference championship game as well.

Vacating all wins from 1998-2011 (112 wins total) – This is probably the most damaging to Joe Paterno, who after today is no longer the winningest head football coach in NCAA Division-1 history.  111 of the 112 wins are credited to his record, and with today’s announcement of the vacating of those wins, his career win total of 409 is now knocked down to 298, making him 5^th all-time. 

Loss of Scholarships – This is probably the most damaging to the Penn State football program.  Penn State will have to forfeit 10 initial scholars and 20 in total per year over the next four years and cannot carry more than 65 scholarship football players on their team.  For those wondering, that is about the equivalent of a NCAA Division-1 AA football school, i.e. Sac State or UC Davis.




So, what would I have done differently?  I would have hit Penn State with the Death Penalty for a year, in addition to what was handed down to Penn State today.  I would shut them down for a year, and then when they come back, make today’s penalties take effect.  It may be overblown, but that is what I would do.  I understand the argument that you are punishing players and an administration that had no involvement in what took place that led us to this point, but something has to be done.   

The simple fact is that Penn State football needs to go away for a year.  Out of respect for the victims and their families, especially the ones who are still living in the Penn State/Happy Valley area, this season will just be a constant reminder of everything they had to re-live this past year with the scandal.  When Penn State takes the field on September 1, they won’t find closure or solace, while others not involved with this scandal might.  This may be a bad term to use, since the dust will never settle on this, but Penn State football needs to let the dust settle on this, and then come back next season. 

There is another aspect that I think is wrong with letting Penn State continue to play this season.   I agree with what John Feinstein had to say on the Jim Rome radio show today when he said that all the NCAA is doing by these penalties is enabling Penn State to create a “Rudy” or “Underdog” type atmosphere around their football program, especially with those who disagree with today's punishments and think the NCAA overstep their boundaries.  By allowing them to continue to compete, they will be known as the "little-football-program-that-could," trying to compete and win games despite being under-manned and under-scholarshiped.  They can somehow spin and use today's punishment as a motivator for their football team, all while losing sight of the victims involved with this scandal.  I know you can't abolish the entire program, which is why I think if you at least shut them down for this season, they can let this scandal somewhat pass by them and then come back the following season and play under better circumstances and maybe even honor those victims as best they could.  


The $60 million in sanctions, while a high price-tag, I’m sure will be made up to the school through fundraising and donors who are still loyal to Penn State.  Remember, in the middle of this entire scandal, Penn State had their second highest fundraising and donor totals in school history.  That $60 million will be made up in no-time.  The four-year bowl game bad will at first discourage recruits from attending Penn State, but what happens after the four years when they become eligible again?  And I have never understood the meaning of vacating wins from the record books.  The games ultimately happened, players played, coaches coached, and people were there to witness it.  You never will be able to erase that.  The loss of scholarships hurts in the immediate term, but we just saw USC go through a loss in scholarships and bowl-game ban, and it had no effect on their ability to recruit talented players or their stature as a football program.  In the immediately future for Penn State this might affect recruiting, but what about in years three or four, when that bowl-game ban is about to be lifted and Penn State is able to offer not only a scholarship but also an opportunity to play in a bowl game?  And they can offer playing time, which is the most important thing to a high-school player. 

There may be no penalty severe enough for what has occurred at Penn State.  But after the $60 million sanction, after the four-year bowl game ban, after the vacating of wins, after the loss of scholarships, Penn State will be made whole again.  We will never be able to say the same for those victims.

Mr. Armchair Speaking –

The Midsummer Classic………Debate!! –

They say it’s not officially summertime until the MLB All-Star game happens. What was once called “The Midsummer Classic,” the MLB All-Star game has now become a focal point to great debate and scrutiny over the last decade. Over the past couple of weeks, I’ve been engaging in numerous debates over MLB’s All-Star game; from who should be voted into the starting lineup, to whether the game should determine home-field advantage for the World Series, to which starting pitcher should even start the game. There are purest who think this game is sacred and should mean something, to the purest that see this game as strictly an exhibition to showcase the game’s brightest and best players, to the casual fan who mainly tunes in to see their favorite team represented by their team player representative. With the wide range, yet no compromising, view of the All-Star game, there seems to be no middle ground in this debate, when surface is badly needed for stability. So let’s try to find some ground.

The first thing we need to put on the table is the true meaning of the All-Star game. In recent years, the All-Star game has determined home-field advantage for the World Series, mainly whichever league wins the All-Star game gets home-field advantage throughout the World Series. This travesty occurred in 2002, when the All-Star game went into extra innings and both the National and American League team managers used all of their pitchers available to pitch. After consulting with Commissioner Selig, and to prevent risking injury to players, they called the game a tie. That offseason, Commissioner Selig instituted the rule currently in place that the winning league on the All-Star game would have home-field advantage in the World Series; supposedly brining meaning to the game and the hope that both the players and managers take the All-Star game more seriously and treat it as a real game.

What a crock, if you ask me.  First off, in my opinion, you shouldn't have to ask these players to play hard in the All-Star game.  They should want to do so because they are representing themselves, their team, and their fans. But there are always those who need that something extra, and need you to make it worth their wide. Take for example Washington Nationals shortstop Ian Desmond. He is not playing in the All-Star game due to an “oblique injury,” yet the Sunday before today’s All-Star game (last game before the break) he went 2-4 with a homerun and 2 stolen bases. But yet he is still in Kansas City, will be announced as an All-Star with the others, and will watch the game from his cozy sit in the dugout. If he truly cared about being an All-Star and playing in the game, he would play. I know it's just one example, but these players shouldn't need home-field advantage on the line to make them play hard.  They are supposedly going against the best-of-the-best in the game and should want to showcase their talent.  I know that is not always the case, and having something to play for is nice, but it shouldn't be home-field advantage in the World Series.

And secondly, if the All-Star game is going to determine which league gets home-field advantage in the World Series, how is that going to make the players care more and try harder to win the game? Really, there is about maybe 17 players in total who really care about that aspect. Why would Carlos Gonzalez, playing for the last place Colorado Rockies, care about home-field advantage in the World Series? The Rockies are terrible and won’t even sniff the playoff race let alone the World Series. In fact, they may be even mathematically out of the playoff race right now (don’t quote me on that). Yeah, guys who play for winning ball clubs and on teams who have a legit shot at making the World Series will care enough to maybe dive for a ball or hustle a little more, but otherwise I don’t think players go into the game trying any harder to win than if home-field advantage for the World Series weren’t on the line. Players are going to “play to win” and try hard because they are natural competitors. They shouldn’t need home-field advantage to make them compete harder.

So how do we fix the problem of making sure that the players playing in the All-Star game care more about winning and playing hard, but not have the ramification of losing home-field advantage in the World Series if they lose? I have the answer: $$$$$$$$!!!!!!!!!! Money, folks!!! I guarantee, if you put a pot of money up for grabs, say $20 million, and the winning team divides that pot up into equal shares amongst the players and coaches, you will have players trying hard to win. For those playing for the losing team in the All-Star game? Nothing!!! No compensation. You must remember, not all of the players playing in the All-Star game are amongst the highest paid players in baseball. Some of these guys are still on their minor-league deals and haven’t had the opportunity through free agency to cash in on that big-money contract. So in baseball terms, while they aren’t starving, they aren’t getting paid as well. Put a paycheck on the line, and you may see some competition.

The second thing I want to address is the fans voting for the starters. Now, there has been some controversy about this because most recently, baseball fans outside of the San Francisco / Bay Area have accused Giants fans of “stuffing the ballot-boxes” and voting for all Giants players instead of those truly deserving of being All-Star starters, essentially ruining the integrity of the fan vote. My opinion, I caution because I am a die-heart Giants fan, if you are going to give the fans the power to vote for whoever they want to be in the game, you are going to have to deal with the consequences. If that means Pablo Sandoval starting at third base over New York Met David Wright, so be it. Giants’ fans flex their muscle!!! Where were you Mets fans?? See, if you are going to make the All-Star game count for something, then you can’t have the fans involved in the process of determining who plays in the game. And this is where the lines get crossed between whether or not the All-Star game should count for something or just be an exhibition for the fans. You can’t have it both ways in this aspect. If you truly want the game to mean something and have home-field advantage for the World Series on the line, then you have to let the players and coaches determine who plays in the game. I think the NFL with the Pro Bowl gets it right here. While the Pro Bowl is probably the worst All-Star game to watch out of the three major sports, they get it right when determining who in fact is a Pro Bowler. It’s 33% players, 33% coaches, and 33% fans. Baseball should be the same way if they want the All-Star game to current on this path.

Personally, I think the fans should have the right to vote for whoever they want to see in the game. It’s their game!!! The game was originally meant to be played for the fans. And if Giants fans, or any fans of any team, want to see their own players playing in the All-Star game, they should have the right to vote for them. I would just caution to those out there to not make Giants fan mad, because next year, you may see all 9 Giants starters starting the All-Star game.

So I think we cleared up the glaring issues surrounding MLB’s All-Star game and have come to some sort of middle ground regarding the purpose of the game. Sure there is no perfect solution and there will always be those unsatisfied with any outcome; but for the most part, I think we solved the problem. We’ve made the game meaningful by having the players play for money, which we all know they will play hard for; and we gave the game back to the fans by making the game an exhibition while keeping the integrity of what it means to be an All-Star. We let the fans vote for their favorite players, but not have their vote be the sole determining factor of who becomes an All-Star starter. Problems solved, patting myself on the back.

The Midsummer Classic Debate……….Over!!!!



Mr. Armchair Speaking!!!