What’s Wrong with The Freak??

There is much concern in the land of Castoffs and Misfits (SF Giants).  Our ace and franchise face, Tim Lincecum, isn’t having the best of seasons.  His record is 2-4 with a 6.04 ERA, 1.59 WHIP, and a fastball hovering around 89-91 MPH.  Most are attributing Timmy’s wayward season to a drop in velocity.  His fastball doesn’t have the same zip on it like it had when he first exploded onto the scene and on his way to winning back-to-back CY Young Awards (2008 and 2009).  While his lose in velocity should be noted, I don’t believe it’s the main cause of Timmy’s problems and one that shouldn’t be cited as the source.  In watching Timmy pitch this season, he tends to lose focus during, or even at the start of games, which allows for the big inning that has hampered him all season.  He also is getting little run-support from the Giants offense when he pitches, a problem that was consistent last season in his starts (he was the second amongst starting pitchers in lack of run-support last season).  But what’s a bigger concern in my book is his lack of control on his breaking pitches, mainly his curveball.  It’s makes life really easy for hitter when your curveball bounces 3-feet in front of home plate and they can just sit on your fastball.  And when you do get it over the plate, it’s up in the zone and any decent hitter will crush a hanging curve.  It is doing him no good to throw and I believe it’s a pitch that Timmy needs to abandon altogether.     

Normally, a starting pitcher will throw 4 pitches:  fastball, curveball, slider, and change-up.  The fastball will always be the primary pitch a pitcher throws and one that he throws the most often, typically the first pitch of every at-bat.  While Timmy’s fastball may only average 89-91 MPH, OPP BA (opponent’s batting average) is only .270.  He throws his fastball 54% of the time, 63% on first pitch, 56% early in the count, 40% with two strikes, 43% of the time when ahead in the count, and 64% when behind.  Compare that to Justin Verlander (.248, 58%, 72%, 61%, 47%, 42%, and 70%), Clayton Kershaw (.255, 68%, 81%, 73%, 50%, 49%, and 85%), and Roy Halladay (.268, 69%, 74%, 73%, 60%, 62%, and 78%), and it’s comparable.  I know these stats don’t measure velocity and only usage, but what I’m trying to say it hitters aren’t crushing his fastball despite the lost in velocity and he is not afraid to throw his fastball.  When you look at these same stats for his curveball, it tells a different story. 

What separates a good starting pitcher from the rest of the pack are their secondary pitches or “out-pitch.”  The “out-pitch” is normally an off-speed pitch, whether it’s a good change-up, slider, cutter, splitter, or curveball.  Timmy had three excellent out-pitches when he first came up: his slider, curveball, and an awesome change-up; so he has out-pitches, it’s just not his curveball anymore.  Timmy only throws his curveball 9% of the time; however he throws it 16% of the time as his first pitch (second after his fastball), 13% early in the count, 4% with two-strikes, 7% when ahead, and 6% when behind.  Worst yet, the OPP BA on his curveball is .321.  So by these stats, he’s not throwing his curveball when deep into counts, meaning he doesn’t have the confidence in that pitch to throw it for strikes.  And when he does throw the curve, hitters are crushing it, as evident by the high OPP BA.  When compared to his other secondary pitches – the slider and change-up - it’s night and day.  Timmy throws his slider 15% of the time, 12% on first pitch, 14% early in the count, 21% with two-strikes, 19% when ahead, and 12% when behind.  The OPP BA on his slide, .191.  When he throwing his change-up, he throws it 21% of the time, 9% on first pitch, 16% early in the count, 35% with two-strikes, 31% when ahead, and 16% when behind.  The OPP BA on this change-up is .174.  So clearly, Timmy’s two best out-pitches are now his slider and change-up. 

So why even throw the curve, Timmy?  You can make the argument that he has to throw it to keep hitters honest at the plate, but that is insane.  I pulled the same stats on Roy Halladay, and they only chart him for three pitches:  fastball, curve, and change-up.  Halladay’s OPP BA for those three pitches are: fastball is .268, curveball is .173, and change-up is .194.  If you took out Timmy’s curveball, his OPP BA for his three pitches would be: fastball .270, slider .191, and change-up .174.  Roy Halladay overall this season is a 4-4 record with a 3.58 ERA, 1.11 WHIP, and 56 K’s.  Timmy’s painful overall numbers, 2-4 record, 6.04 ERA, 1.59 WHIP, and 53 K’s.  One pitch makes a difference.

                   

I know there are other aspects of Timmy’s pitching that needs more help than just eliminating the curveball from his arsenal.  He needs to fine-tune his mechanics, which we all agree are out-of-whack.  This is not uncommon with Timmy, as this problem has happened in the past.  Normally what happens is that Timmy will go haywire with his mechanics for a couple of starts and his dad, Chris Lincecum, will come down from Seattle, watch some tape with Timmy, and get him back on track.  By the next start, he is back to his old self.  I think it’s about time for Old Lincecum Sr., to come back for a visit.  I also believe that his dad needs to work on Timmy’s mental aspect and pitching approach.  Timmy hasn’t been known as a pitcher who doesn’t go deep into games.  Normally, by the 7^th inning, he has a high pitch count and has to be taken out of the game, leaving the gems he throws up to the bullpen to finish.  I believe Timmy has it in his head that he has to try and pitch to contact instead of strikeouts, in order to save his arm so he can last longer in games.  In 2008, Timmy started 33 games, completing only 2 of them, with 1 shutout.  In 2009, he had 32 starts, 4 complete games, with 2 shutouts.  In 2010 and 2011, he has only 1 complete game, with those being shutouts. 

There is also this notion that Timmy has just peaked, and from here on out we should expect to see a natural regression from him.  I don’t necessarily buy that notion either, especially at his age (27).  In today’s baseball world, tradition baseball stats such as ERA and K’s aren’t viewed the same as they used to be.  With the advent of sabermetrics, we have to look deeper into the stats of a pitcher to see how good he really is.  So, let’s get all analytical and dive into sabermetrics with Timmy.  In 2008 and 2009, when Timmy won back-to-back CY Young Awards, his numbers were:

2008:  ERA 2.62, WHIP 1.172, H/9 7.2, BB/9 3.3, SO 265, SO/9 10.5, BA BIP (BA Balls in Play) .310

2009:  ERA 2.48, WHIP 1.047, H/9 6.7, BB/9 2.7, SO 261, SO/9 10.4, BA BIP .288

Those numbers are plush and hard to argue with.  In 2010, he did experience a regression were those numbers fell, but I think winning a World Series and pitching lights out in the playoffs trumps anything he did in the 2010 regular season, so I won’t post those numbers.  But last season, Timmy got back on track:

2011:  ERA 2.74, WHIP 1.207, H/9 7.3, BB/9 3.6, SO 220, SO/9 9.1, BA BIP .288

While these numbers are obviously not as spectacular as in 2008 and 2009, they are pretty comparable, with the expectation of 1 less K/9 (I would like to note that despite the awful season Timmy is having, his K/9 is back up to 10.0).  So when looking at his 2008, 2009, and 2011 numbers, while a natural regression may occur, we shouldn’t be seeing the type of 2012 season that Timmy is having.   

While I know it's a stretch to make the assertion that Timmy's problems will all of a sudden vanish by just eliminating one pitch that he may throw 9-12 times a game, but I believe Timmy can revert back to form and be a very good pitcher in baseball, even with throwing a 90 MPH fastball.  Many people feel that Timmy can't be an effective pitcher when he throws his fastball at 90 MPH.  But not all pitchers are Justin Verlander and can go 8+ strong and still throw 100 MPH gas in the late innings.  Timmy needs to learn how to adapt and use his arsenal better, i.e. using certain pitches more and some less or not at all.  But Timmy has to change his ways, and it has to start now.  Eliminate the curveball, work on the mechanics, and change the mindset of trying to pitch to contact, and I’m confident that we will see the Timmy of old; The Freak. 

Mr. Armchair Speaking - 
(Stats provided by ESPN.com and BaseballReference.com)

NBA Playoffs Preview –

Yes, I know the NBA Playoffs have already started and that the first round is already behind us, but I don’t start really paying close attention to the NBA playoffs until the second round.  Ever since the NBA changes the first round playoff format and extended series from 5-games to 7-games, the NBA playoffs have just become too long and in this year’s case, boring.  With the exceptions of Memphis – Clippers series and the Lakers – Nuggets series, these first round matchups have been rather boring to me.  To be honest, to date, I may have watched more total minutes of the NHL playoffs than the NBA playoffs.  I know we had an 8-seed beat a 1-seed (Sixers over the Bulls), but the Bulls were without last year’s MVP Derrick Rose and pivotal defensive center Joakim Noah.  I don’t care how well the Bulls played without D-Rose during the regular season; you can’t sustain a loss like that and expect to win in the playoffs.  And losing Joakim Noah was huge, as the Bulls lack front-court depth and they made Spencer Hawes look like the second coming of Moses Malone.  The Heat and Knicks series was a big yawn, as the Carmelo-Lebron matchup fell flat on its face.  Indiana and Orlando lacked interest for me without Dwight Howard, although big-ups to Ryan Anderson, Go Bears.  The Celtics and Hawks series was ok, as I enjoy watching Rondo play.  In the Western Conference, both the Memphis-Clippers and Lakers-Nuggets series were entertaining because they went to game 7 and were highly competitive.  But both San Antonio and OKC made quick work of Utah and Dallas, not to this bloggers surprise but it was to one Texas/Dallas-bias blogger I know (index finger pointing at you, Professor).  All in all, to me, and particularly without a rooting interest, the NBA playoffs don’t get interesting until the second round.   

Eastern Conference –

Philadelphia 76ers v. Boston Celtics –

I think the 76ers will give the Celtics a run and make the games fairly competitive, as I do believe the 76ers are a good team and better than their regular season record would say.  They have a lot of good, young talented players that if they all develop together, they could make the leap to becoming a top 4 team in the Eastern Conference.  I like Jrue Holiday running the point for the 76ers and I even like what Evan Turner brings to the team.  I know he is a terrible 3-point shooter, but the guy averaged 10 points and 6 rebounds per game in the regular season and has expanded that to 12 points and 7 rebounds during the playoffs.  Andre Iguodala and Spencer Hawes aren’t superstars, but they are playing well and are giving them productive minutes.  But the Celtics big-three/three-and-a-half (I guess you still have to include Ray Allen) are playing too well of late to lose this series.  And whoever thinks Kevin Garnett is too old to still matter in the NBA is a dope.  He has been averaging 20-and-10 during the playoffs and playing like a man possessed.  Paul Pierce is being Paul Pierce and with Rajon Rondo liable to get a triple-double at any moment, I can’t see the 76ers over-coming.    

Boston in 5 games.      

Indiana Pacers v. Miami Heat –

The Pacers are doing everything they can to hype themselves up for this series, saying they aren’t the underdogs and their head coach calling out the Heat for flopping.  While all this is probably necessary for them to win, it’s a signal that this team knows it doesn’t stand a chance against the Heat.  The lack of a point guard will ultimately be the detriment of the Pacers, and Danny Granger going 1-10 from the floor like he did in game 1 of this series won’t get it done as well.  The Heat, even without the services of Chris Bosh, should still beat the Pacers comfortably.  Bosh suffered an abdominal strain in Game 1 and as I’m writing this right now, he is out indefinitely and likely out for the series.  If by some miracle the Pacers do end up winning this series, it will be a major upset in my book and mayhem will then ensue.  Pat Riley will race down from his GM suite like he did when the Heat traded for Shaq and didn’t win a title right away, and come to the rescue of coach Erik Spoelstra; or Riley will trade one of the big-three for a bunch of role-players, finally realizing that you can’t win an NBA Title with just 2 superstars, an overrated, overpaid, and soft big man, and a bunch of D-leaguers. 

Miami in 5 games.

Western Conference –

Los Angeles Clippers v. San Antonio Spurs –

For some reason, the more I watch the Clippers, the more I tend to root against them.  Frankly, I’m sick of Blake Griffin and his act.  I’m sick of his flopping; I’m sick of his two-foot hook shots that he calls dunks, and I think he is quickly developing what is known as the KG complex, a guy who is “fake tough”.  But I do think this will actually be a very entertaining series.  You have two of the best point guards in the game right now in Chris Paul and Tony Parker going head-to-head against each other.  Both are lightening quick with the dribble, both can penetrate the lane, and both are great floor generals.  This matchup alone will make this series worth watching.  The Spurs however will win the series.  It won’t be because the Spurs are more talented or athletic than the Clip-show, but they will out-smart the Clippers.  The Spurs are a very well-oiled machine right now and don’t count out the Spurs supporting cast.  They are getting productive minutes from guys like Kawhi Leonard, Danny Green, and Stephen Jackson.  In the playoffs, Kawhi is averaging 7 points, 3 rebounds, Danny Green is averaging 9 points, 4 rebounds, and Stephen Jackson is averaging 10 points, 4 rebounds.    

San Antonio in 6 games.   

Los Angeles Lakers v. Oklahoma City Thunder –

Well, this is the series everyone had hope for since Metta World Peace went Queens Bridge to James Harden dome.  All that is missing is a table leg going through someone’s heart (Jim Rome listeners will get that reference) and we might as well be playing this series at Rucker Park.  There is no doubt that the competitive juices will be flowing, with both teams wanted to come out with something to prove.  I’m sure we are going to see some technical fouls called this series.  While you can’t ever count out the Lakers as long as Kobe still wears a jersey, I like OKC to win this series.  The combination of Ramon Session and Steve Blake will get abused by Russell Westbrook and Metta World will have to go “Malice at the Palace” to stop Kevin Durant.  And quite frankly, like in the Lakers-Nuggets series, I think Pau Gasol and Andrew Bynum will be no-shows.  Serge Ibaka and Kendrick Perkins will completely take away the paint from them, rendering them to being useless and more importantly, heartless.  When you have Kobe coming out and saying that he can’t wait for Metta World Peace to come back from suspension because he is the only player he can count on, you as a team have major issues.   

Oklahoma City in 6 games.

Eastern Conference –

Boston Celtics v. Miami Heat –

This should shape up to be another classic bout between these two heavyweights of the Eastern Conference.  The Heat and the Celtics, and mainly the Celtics v. LeBron, have always been contentious and hard-fought.  Unlike the Pacers series, the Heat will need Chris Bosh to beat the Celtics.  If the Heat want to sit Bosh down for the Pacers series and let him recover from his abdominal strain, they could probably do that and still win.  But they will need Bosh to body up against KG in this series, as he is playing lights-out in the playoffs.  But the Heat will be too much for the Celtics.  For as good as KG and Rajon Rondo are playing, Ray Allen not being Jesus Shuttlesworth will finally catch-up with the Celtics. 

Miami in 7 games.   

Oklahoma City Thunder v. San Antonio Spurs –

I think this will finally be the year that OKC makes the leap and get into the Finals.  If they don’t do it this year, then I’m not sure when they will.  They have James Harden and Serge Ibaka both becoming free agents soon and many think they won’t have the cash necessary to sign both of them.  They could amnesty Kendrick Perkins to free up cash, but that will only give them enough to sign one of them, so I feel there is a small sense of urgency with the Thunder to win a championship with this core.  And while the Spurs are still the old, craft-veteran team that will out-coach and out-smart you to death, I just think OKC’s talent will overcome all those intangibles and they will take this series in a nail-biter. 

OKC in 7 games.    

Mr. Armchair Speaking –

Mr. Armchair’s Draft Recap and a Kentucky Derby Preview –

Monday was a very sad day for me. I felt so dejected and lost. Christmas was officially over. The three-day extravaganza that is the NFL Draft has come to an end with 253 collegiate football athletes have new jobs and employers. It’s probably one of the greatest days in those young men’s lives; receiving that phone call informing them that they have been drafted to play football in the NFL. Their dreams have finally come true. However, the Monday after the draft is always sad for me. No more mocking. No more reading and watching analysis or listening to podcast. Football goes silent for 2 months.  
 

So how did Mr. Armchair’s Mock Draft hold up against the experts? Quiet well, actually. I got 8 out of 32 correct picks, 25%. Note: a corrected pick counts as either a player getting drafted by the team you had them getting drafted by, or a player getting drafted in the numbered pick you had them getting drafted. Here are the stat lines:

Don Banks, SI.com – 10.5/32 (I gave him a .5 for having the Cleveland Browns trading back into the first-round from the second-round and taking QB Brandon Weeden)

MR. ARMCHAIR, Your favorite NFL Draft expert – 8/32

Michael Lombardi, NFL Network – 8/32

Charley Casserly, NFL Network and ex-NFL GM – 8/32

Todd McShay, ESPN and Scouts Inc. – 8/32

Mel Kiper, Jr., ESPN and known NFL Draft expert – 8/32

Charles Davis, NFL Network, FOX NFL Analyst, and Mr. Armchair reader (I have twitter proof) – 7/32

Peter King, SI.com NFL writer and Insider – 6.5/32 (he also had the Cleveland Browns trading up into the first-round from the second-round and taking QB Brandon Weeden)

Mike Mayock, NFL Network – 6/32

You may argue that most of us had the top 4 picks correct, as they were practically pre-determined before the draft started, as well as the Miami Dolphins’ selection of QB Ryan Tannehill. But what separated Mr. Armchair from the rest of the group was DT Dontari Poe getting drafted by the Kansas City at pick #11, CB Dre Kirkpatrick getting drafted by the Cincinnati Bengals (regardless of pick number), and DE Chandler Jones getting drafted by the New England Patriots (also regardless of pick number).

Before I get into my analysis of each teams draft, I wanted to throw-out some numbers for you in case you were unable to catch the footage of the NFL Draft this year.

39.6 – the number in millions of the people who watched the NFL Draft this year. Is there any doubt that the NFL rules the sports world?

8 – the number of first-round, draft-day trades; double from last year’s draft.

16 – the number of picks (half) in the first-round that changed hands prior to the draft (includes last year’s Cleveland Browns/Atlanta Falcons draft-day trade and the Cincinnati Bengals/Oakland Raiders mid-season trade).

3 – the number of hours it took to complete the first-round; the fastest first-round in NFL Draft history.

70 – the pick number (3^rd round) of the first Punter drafted. That honor goes to the Jacksonville Jaguars who took Cal Punter Bryan Anger.

50-3 – the record of Boise St. QB Kellen Moore - the winningest QB in NCAA History - who went undrafted.

2 – the number of draft-day hotties that took the Internet World and Twitter by storm. The co-leaders in the clubhouse were Minnesota Vikings first-round pick LT Matt Kalil’s mother and Miami Dolphins first-round pick QB Ryan Tannehill’s wife.

Analysis Time –  

It is always hard to analyze or “grade” a draft class right after the draft happens. You can’t truly analyze or “grade” a draft for at least 3-4 years after. When JaMarcus Russell was drafted #1 overall in the 2007 NFL Draft, the great draft-guru Mel Kiper raved about Russell’s “Elway-like” talent and labeled him as a “catch miss” prospect. The so-called experts are often times wrong as they are right about prospect outlooks. But it’s a piece that reader’s and football enthusiast enjoy reading, and therefore they are charged with the duty of judging a draft class upon first glance. So I figure I might as well partake.

Cincinnati Bengals – A

Analysis: I thought Cincinnati had the best draft. I can see every draft pick being a solid contributor this upcoming season, and this was a playoff team last season. Their top 2 needs were CB and OG, and with their two first-round picks, they drafted CB Dre Kirkpatrick and OG Kevin Zeitler. Both will be starters going into the season. They also managed to steal DT Devon Still in the middle of the second-round, who some had graded as a late first-round talent. And don’t sleep on late-round pick WR Marvin Jones (Go Cal Bears), S George Iloka, and RB Dan Herron. This was a great draft for the Bengals.

Pittsburgh Steelers – A

Analysis: I thought Pittsburgh also had a great draft. Everyone knew the Steelers were targeting the O-line, either at OG or OT. However, no one was confident that the Steelers would be able to address those needs at #24 without having to reach for a player. Well, not only did they not reach for a player, they had arguably the best OG in the draft fall to them. OG David DeCastro was rated as a top 10 prospect and how he fell to #24 in beyond my grasp. They also got OT Mike Adams – many feel he would have been a first-round pick if not for off-field issues - in the second-round.

Minnesota Vikings – A-

Analysis: Great chess game by the Vikings. Minnesota was able to convince the Browns that they were fielding offers for the #3 pick with teams looking to trade up for RB Trent Richardson. It was enough to spook the Browns into trading their #4 overall pick along with 3 additional draft picks to the Vikings for their #3 overall. The Vikings were still able to get their guy in LT Matt Kalil and used one of those acquired picks to move back into the first-round a grab S Harrison Smith. I also like late-round picks CB Josh Robinson - winner of the fastest 40-yard dash time at the Combine - and WR Jarius Wright.

Philadelphia Eagles – A-

Analysis: DT was a top need for them coming into the draft. DT Fletcher Cox was the top DT in the draft and they traded up to get him at #12, not costing them all that much in the process. And a bite of a homer analysis here, but ILB Mychal Kendrick from Cal was a great get. I’ve seen almost every game he’s played in and the dude is beastly. DE Vinny Curry will also add to the pass-rush Philly hopes to improve. QB Nick Flores looks to be the new QB-in-waiting for when Mike Vick gets hurts, and we know he will get hurt at some point during the season. CB Brandon Boykins is also underrated.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers – A-

Analysis: They traded out of the #5 spot and a chance to either draft CB Morris Claiborne or WR Justin Blackmon, and moved back to #7 and grabbed SS Mark Barron. You can argue whether CB or SS was a bigger need, but regardless Tampa Bay needed secondary help. Why not trade down and get an extra pick? They ended up using the pick (4^th round pick from Jacksonville) to move back into the first-round and draft RB Doug Martin, fulfilling another need. I also had a first-round grade for LB Lavonte David, who they got in the second-round. They helped themselves out tremendously.
  

Buffalo Bills – B+

Analysis: I liked the Bills draft more than most people. While CB wasn’t a major need, Stephon Gilmore is a major talent and in a division where you play the Patriots twice a year, you need all the talented DB’s you can get. Gilmore will be an immediate starter at CB and with the Bills having signed DE/OLB Mario Williams and DE Mike Anderson to improve their pass-rush; the Bills defense is now greatly improved. The one major need the Bills did have was at OT, and they were able to address it in the second-round with OT/OG Cordy Glenn. He’s another first-round talent who fell to the second-round.

Green Bay Packers – B+

Analysis: The Packers finished last season with the league’s worst defense, ranked #32. How did they address that need? They used their first 6 picks on defensive players. I like the selection of DE/OLB Nick Perry to play opposition Clay Matthews. Perry has a good chance to be that pass-rush specialize and get after the QB. I also like the selection of DT Jerel Worthy. I had him being drafted in the late-first, so to get Worthy in the mid-second was a steal in my opinion. And CB Casey Hampton will get plenty of action as their nickel CB and could be the heir apparent to Charles Woodson.

Indianapolis Colts – B+

Analysis: It was nearly impossible to screw up this year’s first overall pick, so that alone gives them a B grade. But the fact that they didn’t only get the #1 overall rated talent in the draft in QB Andrew Luck, but the Colts were able to snag his favorite target in college and #1 overall rated TE in Coby Fleener. When Fleener went undrafted in the first-round, picking Fleener with the second pick in the second-round was about as much of a lock as them taking Luck with the first pick. I question drafting TE Dwayne Allen with the first pick of the third-round, but I understand why they did it.

San Diego Chargers – B+

Analysis: Anytime you can get a highly-rated talent at a low-level pick, you will always get a good grade in my book. I had DE/OLB Melvin Ingram getting drafted at #7. I understand that there were concerns about what position he would best fit at, but for him to fall to #18 and have players like LB Bruce Irvin and DE Quinton Coples get drafted ahead of him is mind-boggling. The Chargers getting Ingram at #18 is great value. They had major needs along the D-Line and improving the pass-rush and Ingram should aid in solving those problems. DT Kendall Reyes was also good value in the second-round. 

Arizona Cardinals – B

Analysis: I understand why the Cardinals took WR Michael Floyd at #13. He was the second best WR on the board, some having him rated higher than Justin Blackmon. When a talent like that falls to you, it’s hard to pass on despite your pressing needs. I’m not sure if I would have passed on OT Riley Reiff here, as the Cardinals pass-blocking was terrible last season. Floyd will differently help the offense, immediately starting opposite Larry Fitzgerald. The Cards did draft 3 different OT, hoping one of them sticks. My money is on OT Bobby Massie, a second-round rated talent who fell to the fourth-round. 

Baltimore Ravens – B

Analysis: Anytime you can move out of the first-round, acquire an extra pick, and still get your guy who is a first-round talent, who had a good draft. The Ravens were able to move out of the first-round and still draft OLB Courtney Upshaw in the early second-round. I had Upshaw rated as a mid-first talent. The Ravens also filled a need on the O-line by drafting OT/OG Kelechi Osemele, who was a rising prospect coming into the draft. RB Bernard Pierce should see plenty of playing time with Ricky Williams retiring, and late-round picks CB Asa Jackson and WR Tommy Streeter should contribute.

Carolina Panthers – B

Analysis: The Panthers needed help in the middle of their defense, mainly at DT. While DT Fletcher Cox, Dontari Poe, and Michael Brockers were all available, the Panthers selected ILB Luke Kuechly instead. Kuechly is very talented but I would have rather gone after Fletcher Cox at #9 and then address the LB position in the second-round with either ILB Mychal Kendricks or LB Lavonte David. They could have even gone with CB Stephon Gilmore at #9 and then address DT in the second with Kendall Reyes, Jerel Worthy, or even Devon Still. I just didn’t see LB as a major need for the Panthers, but still a good draft.

New England Patriots – B

Analysis: The Patriots have always been known as a team who trades back in the draft in order to stockpile future draft picks, hoarding them in their 401K fund. But this year, the Patriots did something in the draft that no one expected them to do. They actually traded up in the draft. And not only did they do it once, they did it twice! They finally cashed in on those draft picks and got two players who will come in and have an immediate impact on their defense. DE Chandler Jones and LB Dont’a Hightower are two really good football players with excellent football skills and motors. 

San Francisco 49ers – B

Analysis: Despite being 13-3 and winning the NFC West division, their offense at times was horrible and slow. They had no speed or speed threat on the offensive side of the ball. Enter first-round pick WR AJ Jenkins and second-round pick RB LeMichael James. Jenkins ran the 8^th fastest 40-yard dash time at the combine at 4.37, and we’ve all seen what James can do in the open field. And I love what the 49ers did trading wise in the middle rounds. They acquired 3 additional picks for next season, giving them a total of 13 draft picks when you fact in free agent compensatory picks. The future is bright, my friends. 

Dallas Cowboys – B-

Analysis: I love what the Cowboys did with their first-round pick. The Cowboys traded up and got one of the top 5 elite prospects in the draft, CB Morris Claiborne. In a division where you have to face QB’s Eli Manning, Michael Vick, and now Robert Griffin III, getting an elite CB was a must. Claiborne, Carr, and Jenkins make up a good group of CB’s. I wasn’t too thrilled with their third-round selection, however. I would have liked for them to have taken C Philip Blake, who was the second-rated C in the draft. The QB-C exchange was a problem at time for the Cowboys last season. 

Detroit Lions – B-

Analysis: The Lions were another team that benefitted from a highly-rated prospect falling to them. I thought for sure OT Riley Reiff wouldn’t be passed on by the Arizona Cardinals, but they too had a prospect fall to them and they went in a different direction. The Lions have the oldest O-Line in the league and Reiff will be a welcomed addition. This allows OT Jeff Backus to move inside to the interior as he finishes up his career. Detroit took a big swing in the second-round by drafting WR Ryan Broyles. He is coming off a major knee injury and at that time, I feel the Lions had other needs to address. 

Jacksonville Jaguars – B-

Analysis: The Jaguars did a good job at addressing needs with their top two picks. They moved up to #5 and were able to get WR Justin Blackmon, arguably the best WR in the draft. I like this move because if you are ever going to find out if QB Blaine Gabbert can make it in the NFL; he needs a target to throw it. Jacksonville’s WR were some of the worst in the league last season. Now with Blackmon and free agent signee Laurent Robinson, Gabbert has no excuses. I also like the selection of DE Andre Branch in the second. He could have gone in the late-first and no one would have judged.

HOMER ANALYSIS: the Jaguars drafting P Bryan Anger in the third-round was awesome!!! As a Cal football season ticket holder, I’ve watched almost every game he played and the dude can kick it. One of my favorite Bears. Excellent draft pick!!! 

Kansas City Chiefs – B-

Analysis: I’m higher on DT Dontari Poe than most people. People look at his stats at Memphis and see that he’s only had 5 sacks in his college career; in no way making him worthy of being drafted at the #11. But DT/NT stats are misleading to begin with, as getting sacks isn’t there main job. There job is to clog the middle and shield blockers for the linebackers so they can get to the RB easier. With the big, wide frame of Poe, there is no doubt he is capable of doing that. He will team up nicely with DE’s Glenn Dorsey and Tyson Jackson. OG/OT Jeff Allen and OT Donald Stephenson add good depth to the O-line. 

New York Giants – B-

Analysis: They didn’t get great value in the first-round with RB David Wilson, but they got excellent value in the second and third rounds with WR Reuben Randle and CB Jayron Hosley. Wilson is a good RB, but they probably could have traded back about 5-10 spots, acquired extra picks, and still have gotten him in the second-round. I think Tampa Bay trading back up into the first-round and selecting RB Doug Martin (who the Giants really wanted), scared the Giants into drafting Wilson. And getting Randle with the last pick in the second-round was maybe the best value pick of the draft.

Miami Dolphins – C+

Analysis: Is QB Ryan Tannehill the answer to the everlasting Dolphins QB issue? For their sake, I sure hope so. The Dolphins drafted Tannehill to be their savior with the #8 pick. If there is ever a situation that Tannehill can jump into and have any hope so making it, it’s the Dolphins. They hired Green Bay OC Joe Philbin to be their new head coach. Additionally, the Dolphins hired Tannehill’s college coach, Mike Sherman, to be their OC. I liked them drafted OT Jonathan Martin in the second-round and TE Michael Egnew in the third. Fourth-rounder RB Lamar Miller was good value as well.

St. Louis Rams – C+

Analysis: Let me ask, what would have been the better draft class: DT Michael Brocker, WR Brian Quick, CB Janoris Jenkins, and RB Isaiah Peah; or CB Morris Claiborne, WR Stephen Hill, and OT/OG Cordy Glenn? The latter is an A draft class. The former is a C+ draft class. I would have taken CB Morris Claiborne and stayed with two second-rounders, than moving back to #14 and have three seconds. In the second round, taking WR Brian Quick with the first pick was a miss. WR Stephen Hill, DE Courtney Upshaw, TE Coby Fleener, DT Jerel Worthy, and OT/OG Cordy Glenn were better options. 

Washington Redskins – C+

Analysis: The only reason I’m giving the Redskins a C+ is because I love the move of trading up and getting QB Robert Griffin III. Otherwise, I’m not sure what they’re doing here. Along with QB, S and OT were major needs, so I’m puzzled with them drafting OG Josh LeRibeus in the third-round. With S Brandon Taylor and OT Donald Stephenson available in the third-round, I can’t see how they pass on those two. Also, why are they drafting QB Kirk Cousins in the fourth-round? With not having a first-round pick in the next two upcoming drafts, the Redskins can’t afford wasting picks for luxury.

Chicago Bears – C

Analysis: I know DE/OLB Shea McClellin was a late-rising prospect, but taking him at #19 was a bit of a reach. Addressing the O-line was a much bigger need and with OT Riley Reiff sitting there, he would have been the better draft pick for the Bears. The Bears will only go as far as QB Jay Culter will take them and they need to keep him upright. Reiff would have gone a long way to doing that, but instead he goes to your division rival. I’m also not a fan of what they did in the second-round either. WR Alshon Jeffery does fill a need, but with OT Mike Adams and Kelechi Osemele were there to be picked.

Cleveland Browns – C

Analysis: I’m not knocking the Browns here for making the trade with the Viking and giving up 3 picks to move up one spot and draft RB Trent Richardson. If there is a guy that you want and you feel there is a chance that he may not last to your pick, then go get him. The Browns had a surplus of draft picks, so they could afford to pull that move. I’m knocking the Browns for what they did after the Richardson pick, namely the drafting of QB Brandon Weeden with their second first-round pick. I thought it was a wasted pick. How much better is QB Brandon Weeden than Colt McCoy? I guess we’ll find out.

Houston Texans – C

Analysis: I felt drafting DE Whitney Mercilus was an overreaction and knee-jerk solution to the lost of DE Mario Williams. The Texans played most of last year without him, and they were still a dominating defense. With TE Coby Fleener and WR Stephen Hill still available, either one should have been their pick. I’m also not too thrilled with their second pick, third-round selection WR DeVier Posey. I feel they should have stayed in the second-round instead of trading out and drafted WR Reuben Randle, if Mercilus was truly the guy you had to have in the first.

Atlanta Falcons – C-

Analysis: The Falcons didn’t have a first-round pick, as that pick went to the Cleveland Browns in the trade made last draft season. With their second-round pick, the Falcons selected C Peter Konz, who was rated the top C in the draft. However, C wasn’t a need for the Falcons. The Falcons gave up a ton of sacks last season, but it was from the tackle positions on the O-line, not the interior. OT’s Mike Adams and Kelechi Osemele went after Konz and I feel either would have made a bigger impact this season than Konz. It might be a couple years before we hear about Konz making an impact.

Denver Broncos – C-

Analysis: I don’t understand what the Broncos were doing. I’m ok with them trading out of the first-round, as DT was their #1 priority and there were plenty of DT’s available early in the second. They went with DT Derek Wolfe and I felt Kendall Reyes, Jerel Worthy, and Devon Still, who all went after Wolfe, were better options. With their second second-round pick, they went with QB Brock Osweiler. WHAT?! REALLY? First, Osweiler stinks. Secondly, didn’t you just spend $96 million on a HOF QB? I’ll make this prediction: Tim Tebow will win more games in the NFL than Brock Osweiler.
     

New York Jets – C-

Analysis: They get a low grade not because they didn’t address any needs, but it’s who they addressed them with. How the Jets could pass on a player like DE/OLB Melvin Ingram, a player who would have fit their defensive scheme perfectly, for a player like DE Quinton Coples is beyond me. The Jets didn’t need a DE pass-rusher; but they needed an OLB type pass rusher. That player was Ingram. Instead they took Coples with their first-round pick. I like the move to go up in the second-round and get WR Stephen Hill, but he is still raw and I’m not sure if WR Santonio Holmes is the perfect mentor for him.

Tennessee Titans – C-

Analysis: If there is one person who should be the most disgruntled about this draft, it’s RB Chris Johnson. The Titans took WR Kendall Wright in the first-round and I understand the need to provide QB Jake Locker with weapons to throw too; but I felt the O-line was a much bigger need. The Titans last season made Chris Johnson the highest paid RB in NFL history, but with a bad O-line last season, CJ2k quickly became CJ1K. With OG David DeCastro or even OT Riley Reiff, they could have vastly improved their O-line and then target a WR in the second-round, with the second-tier WR’s falling.
 

New Orleans Saints – D+

Analysis: How do you grade a draft class that consists only of 5 players, with the earliest selection coming in the late third? The Saints traded away their first-round selection last season to the Patriots to draft RB Mark Ingram. Then they lost their second-round selection as punishment for Bountygate. And to top it off, they used their first draft pick, #90 overall, on a player who played in the Canadian Football league. The only reason I gave them a + was because I think WR Nick Toon can play in the NFL and was a good get in the fourth-round. It’s a good thing the Saints don’t need too much help through the draft.

Oakland Raiders – D+

Analysis: See my analysis of the Saints, and it’s the same for the Raiders, except the Raiders’ draft class consists of 6 players. The Raiders traded away their first-rounder to the Bengals in the Carson Palmer trade, and they traded their second-round pick to the Patriots in another trade. Thank God for the NFL free agent compensatory pick progress for lost free agents or otherwise I don’t think the Raiders would have any draft picks this year. And like the Saints, the Raiders used their first-draft pick, #95 overall and last in the third-round, on OG Tony Bergstrom. Enough said.

Seattle Seahawks – D

Analysis: To their credit, the Seattle Seahawks draft guys who they want, who they value, and they will draft them with whatever pick they have. They introduced this strategy last year when they drafted OG James Carpenter in the first-round, and they proved it this year by drafted OLB Bruce Irvin. Many saw Irvin as a mid to late second-round pick. No one imagined him going in the mid first-round. But like I said, they have a scheme, they have a value system, and they will draft players accordingly. Drafting QB Russell Wilson in the third was also strange; but hey, it’s their team. 

Really Quick Kentucky Derby Preview –  

Christmas comes around again, as the 138^th Kentucky Derby happens this weekend. 21 horses make up the field for the Run for the Roses and the motto holds true, it is the greatest 2 minutes in sports.

I enjoy the sport of horse racing. The 4 people who read my blog will remember that I wrote a post about my enjoyment for horse racing and how I’m sadden that it’s now labeled as a dying sport. But if there is one race that brings fans and patrons together, it’s the derby.

When picking my horses, I take into account two major factors: the jockey and the trainer. I also look at recent race times on comparable track lengths and turf, and then judge according. But like any other sport, anything can happen. For the derby, I like Union Rags. For the tri-fecta, I’ll take Union Rags with Dullahan and Take Charge Indy.  

Mr. Armchair Speaking - 
 

Mr. Armchair’s 2012 NFL Mock Draft –

Well, it’s that time of year again. It’s Christmas!!! The NFL Draft is upon us. After taking last week off for Spring Break (I’ve been swamped with work and life as well; I swear, doesn’t my employer know that I have hijinx to pull and blogs to write at work), I thought I would come back at you with my latest and final 2012 NFL Mock Draft. 

Mock drafts are the hardest post to come up with. You have an idea and feel for what you think teams will do or what direction they will go in, but one wayward team or one off-beat pick, and it completely throws off your mock. I evaluate my picks based off of articles and news clips I see, as well as from what I’ve seen when watching the NFL Scouting Combine. Yes, I actually sat down and watched about 5-6 hours of the NFL Scouting Combine. I watched grown men wearing spandex run 40-yard dashes, do broad jumps and verticals, and see how many times they can bench press 225 pounds; and made notes!!

Every year, I put up my mock draft against the likes of Mel Kiper and Todd McShay, and I like seeing how we all do against each other. My goal with my mock is to get 1/3 to 1/4 of my picks correct. I count a correct pick as either a player getting drafted in the pick I had them or by the team I had them going to, regardless of the number draft pick. I normally come up 1-2 picks behind Mel and McShay; but of course, I don’t have the same resources and rolodex as them. 

So I will keep the banter minimal and get you straight to my 2012 NFL Mock Draft.


Final Mock Draft –

1. Indianapolis Colts – Andrew Luck, QB Stanford

He is the best QB prospect coming out of college since John Elway, and some think he may be the best of all-time. Normally when a team has to transition away from a great QB - i.e. Denver Broncos with John Elway or Miami Dolphins with Dan Marino - it cripples the franchise for years. Unfortunately for the Colts, things couldn’t have worked out any better. They get to transition from a QB great in Peyton Manning to Andrew Luck. Must be nice!!! He has the makings to become a Hall of Fame QB. 

2. Washington Redskins (from St. Louis Rams) – Robert Griffin III, QB Baylor

Redskin fans can come out of hiding and rejoice. Finally, a team that has done so much wrong in recent years does something so right. They mortgaged the future (this year’s first-round pick, second-round pick, and first-round picks the following two years) to move up and draft RGIII; but it was a move they had to make. The #1a prospect of this draft class and Heisman winner should project to be a very good QB in the NFL, hopefully meaning those first-round picks will be in the low 20’s. 

3. Minnesota Vikings – Matt Kalil, OT USC

There is where all mock drafts could be ruined this year. What was once thought to be a lock has now turned into a huge question mark. We all thought Kalil would be the perfect fit for the Vikings, who spent last year’s first-round pick on QB Christian Ponder. You could put Kalil at LT and leave him there for the next 10 years to anchor your O-line and protect Ponders’ blind slide. Apparently, things have changed. Minnesota is now exploring possibly drafting WR Justin Blackmon or CB Morris Claiborne. 

4. Cleveland Browns – Trent Richardson, RB Alabama

What makes life easier for a terrible starting QB in the NFL? Turning around a handing off the ball to a stud RB 30 times a game, or trying to throw bad passes to a WR and hope he catches them? I’m going with option A. Richardson has the makings to become a special RB in the NFL. He had a very impressive pro-day, running a good 40-time and show no ill-effects from his knee injury. I know QB and WR are also pressing needs, but they have an extra first-round pick to address those. 

5. Tampa Bay Buccaneers – Morris Claiborne, CB LSU

The last of the tier-1 prospects to be drafted, Claiborne is the best CB prospect in the draft and would fill a huge need on the defensive side of the ball. Ronde Barber isn’t getting any younger and Aqib Talib is a head case. They could also go with RB Trent Richardson here if he falls, but I don’t see that happening. In Claiborne, Tampa Bay is getting one of the five elite prospects in the draft. He has great on-the-ball skills and his DB coach at LSU is now with Tampa, so there is a familiarity here already.

6. St. Louis Rams (from Washington Redskins) – Justin Blackmon, WR Oklahoma St.

The Rams couldn’t have played this any better. They trade down with the Washington Redskins, get a boat-load of extra draft picks this year and for the future, and still are able to get Blackmon to be there #1 WR target for QB Sam Bradford. Drafting Blackmon at pick #2 would have been a reach, but getting him at #6 makes drafting him look more reasonable. Some experts aren’t that high on Blackmon, but he is still the #1 WR in the draft and the Rams need to get Bradford a big WR target to throw the ball too. 

7. Jacksonville Jaguars – Melvin Ingram, DE / OLB South Carolina

The Jacksonville Jaguars need pass-rushing help in the worst way, as they were ranked tied for 25^th in sacks last season. DE Quinton Coples could go here as well - as he may be more talented than Ingram - but Ingram comes with far less off the field baggage than Coples. Jacksonville is known for drafting tough, nose-grinding, stand-up prospects that will come in and immediately make a leadership impact in the locker room. Ingram fits that mold. It also wouldn’t surprise me if they go WR at this spot. 

8. Miami Dolphins – Ryan Tannehill, QB Texas A&M

The last time the Miami Dolphins spent a first-round pick on a QB, he (Dan Marino) only went on to set the NFL passing yards record for a season. Now, I don’t Tannehill is Dan Marino, but it shows you how little Miami has done to address their QB problem ever since Marino retired. Miami needs to invest in a franchise QB. Tannehill is definitely a project QB - as he has only started 19 games at QB in college - but his head coach at Texas A&M is now the OC in Miami and I guarantee you he is lobbying hard. 

9. Carolina Panthers – Fletcher Cox, DT Mississippi St.

Fletcher Cox has now emerged as the best DT prospect, edging scouting combine monster Dontari Poe from Memphis. The Carolina Panthers need a run-stopping DT to anchor their DL and plug up the middle. Carolina’s defense was 25^th last year against the run, allowing an average of 4.6 yards per carry. But Carolina has options, as I can also see them going after WR Michael Floyd from ND to play opposite Steve Smith and giving Cam Newton other target to throw too. ILB Luke Kuechly could go here as well. 

10. Buffalo Bills – Michael Floyd, WR Notre Dame

This is where my mock draft will probably get ruined. Ever since the scouting combine, I’ve solidly had Riley Reiff, OT from Iowa, at this spot and I didn’t expect I would change it. And in reality, Buffalo should be drafting Riley Reiff, as they need a LT badly to protect their $50 million Har-Vard QB. While this is a WR heavy draft, it is also an OT heavy draft as well. I can easily see Buffalo taking Floyd here and then either trading up into the late first round to grab an OT or drafting one in the second round.

11. Kansas City Chief – Dontari Poe, DT Memphis

Dontari Poe won this year’s award for most outstanding scouting combine workout. Every year, there is one prospect that just blows every scout away from their workout and their stock shoots up higher than Apples’ did in the early 2000’s. Poe was that guy this year. His stats may not make him worth of getting drafted this high, but his workout does and you can’t pass on this kind of potential. While Kansas City had a good pass defense (6^th in the league), their run defense was 26^th last year. 

12. Seattle Seahawks – Luke Kuechly, ILB Boston College

Seattle needs a pass-rushing DE and Quinton Coples seems to be the logical pick here, but Kuechly is too talented to pass up at this point in the draft. Kuechly is a tackling machine who fills a need at LB for the Seahawks, who released ILB Lofa Tatupu at the beginning of last season. Also, Kuechly doesn’t come with the same off-field baggage like Coples does. If Seattle really wants Coples, they could possibly trade out of this spot and move down to get him. His stock is falling big time.

13. Arizona Cardinals – Riley Reiff, OT Iowa

This is Riley Reiff’s basement here. If Arizona stays put and Reiff falls to them, they should be doing cartwheels in their war room. Arizona’s biggest problem last year was keeping QB Kevin Kolb healthy. After trading away CB Dominque-Rodgers Cromartie and a second-round pick last season to acquire Kolb, they couldn’t keep him upright for most of the season, and had the likes of John Skelton throwing passes to WR Larry Fitzgerald. Arizona does not want a repeat of that this next upcoming season.

14. Dallas Cowboys – Mark Barron, S Alabama

I really wanted to put OG David DeCastro from Stanford here, and he may end up being their pick. But while DeCastro projects out to be an All-Pro OG, the Cowboys will draft Barron for one reason and one reason only. The Philadelphia Eagles draft right after them and supposedly, they are high on Barron. What better way to spoil the draft of your hated rival than taking the guy they covet. Plus, you don’t want to be the team that passes on Barron and then have to face them twice a year, either.

15. Philadelphia Eagles – Michael Brockers, DT LSU

Philadelphia’s ultimate dream is for either S Mark Barron or ILB Luke Kuechly to fall to them here. Unfortunately, I don’t see that playing out, and I can see the Eagles trading up to get the guy they want. If they stay, Brockers is a solid pick here for them. With Fletcher Cox and Dontari Poe off the boar already, Brockers is next in line for DT’s to be drafted. Teaming Brockers up with DT Cullen Jenkins in the middle will really give the Eagles the beef they lacked up the middle on defense.

16. New York Jets – Courtney Upshaw, DE/OLB Alabama

The New York Jets are a prime candidate to move up in the draft to ensure that they get their guy, most likely either S Mark Barron, OT Riley Reiff, or one of the Top 3 DT’s. If they do stay here and the draft plays out like I think it will, they will take Upshaw. The Jets could use another pass-rusher from the outside position, whether it’s from the DE or OLB spot. It’s uncertain which position Upshaw best fits at, but he is very skilled from playing at Alabama and under head coach Nick Saban.

17. Cincinnati Bengals (from Oakland Raiders) – David DeCastro, OG Stanford

I can’t believe I have DeCastro falling this far. The Cincinnati Bengals would be thrilled if DeCastro falls to them here at 17. After drafting WR A.J. Green and QB Andy Dalton last year, DeCastro would fit right in on that O-line and help improve both the running and passing game. He would be an added plus in the run-game, especially with the Bengals committing to running between the tackles. They signed The Law Firm, BenGarvis Green-Ellis, away from the New England Patriots in the offseason.

18. San Diego Chargers – Cordy Glenn, OG/OT Georgia

The San Diego Chargers could go a number of ways here. They could address the D-line and hopefully pick up one of the top 3 DT’s in this draft, or they could go for a pass-rushing DE. They could also try and move up for ILB Luke Kuechly as well. But I feel their greatest need is at O-line, which makes Glenn here the perfect choice. They didn’t resign Marcus McNeil in the offseason, leaving a whole at OT. Glenn could come in and can play either OT or OG, helping them solidify their O-line.

19. Chicago Bears – Quinton Coples, DE UNC

If Coples didn’t have so many off the field issues, he would easily be the first DE/DL takes in this draft. That still may happen based purely on his talent; but from what I’m reading, Coples is a prime candidate to be a bust in this draft. People question his motor and intensity. That said, Chicago needs a pass-rusher opposite Julius Peppers and hopefully the veteran leadership of Peppers and Urlacher can help shape Coples into the talented prospect he could become. WR Kendall Wright is an option as well.

20. Tennessee Titans – Stephon Gilmore, CB South Carolina

The Tennessee Titan’s O-line was terrible last season, especially in the interior. It wouldn’t surprise me one bite to see the Titans trade out of this spot and move down to draft someone like C Peter Konz of Wisconsin to play alongside G Steve Hutchinson, who they picked up via free agency. However, I’m going with Gilmore here. Losing CB Cortland Finnegan will be a huge blow to their defense and Gilmore would be a capable replacement, if he is even here for them. Grabbing a DE is a possibility as well.

21. Cincinnati Bengals – Dre Kirkpatrick, CB Alabama

Going into the draft, the Bengals two most glaring needs were at OG and CB. They already addressed the OG spot with taking DeCastro with the first of their two first-round picks. Here at 21, they have the luxury of sitting back and waiting to see which CB falls to them. They would prefer CB Stephon Gilmore, but would settle for Kirkpatrick. He’s just another first-rounder from that stout National Championship Alabama defense. They could also go WR Kendall Wright from Baylor here to play opposite AJ Green.

22. Cleveland Browns (from Atlanta Falcons) – Kendall Wright, WR Baylor

Cleveland acquired this pick from the Atlanta Falcons last season in the draft-day trade involving WR Julio Jones. The Browns need to desperately upgrade the talent level at their skilled-positions. With their first first-round pick, they went with RB Trent Richardson. Now they upgrade the WR position by taking Wright. Cleveland ranked 24^th in passing offense and their leading WR was Greg Little with 61 receptions for 700 yards. Wright would be an instant starter along with Richardson.

23. Detroit Lions – Jonathan Martin, OT Stanford

I’ve had Dre Kirkpatrick penciled in here for the last two months, but with other teams ahead of the Lions in need of CBs, I’m not sure if they will be able to grab him. While CB is a need for the Lions, so is O-line. By drafting Martin, the Lions are adding youth and depth to the O-line. Taking Martin would give the Lions the option of either moving Backus to the interior to finish out his career or playing Martin at OG and moving him to OT after Backus retires. DE Chandler Jones could go here as well.

24. Pittsburgh Steelers – Dont’a Hightower, ILB Alabama

The last of the 5 first-round draft picks from that star-studded Alabama National Championship team, Hightower is a perfect fit for the Steelers. He can read plays and take away passing lanes like no other college ILB. The Steelers need youth on the defensive side of the ball. While the Steelers would prefer to take a 3-4 NT to eventually replace Casey Hampton, Hightower is an impact player who will have an immediate effect on the defense. OT is a must add here as well if one should fall to them.

25. Denver Broncos – Jerel Worthy, DT Michigan St.

There is no other team that has to draft for a need position than the Denver Broncos. Getting a run-stopping DT is essential for them. In last year’s draft, they bypassed on DT Marcell Dareus for OLB Von Miller, and now have no talented DT on their current roster. Worthy would be an instant upgrade for the Broncos at that position. They could also target a RB like Lamar Miller from Miami, Doug Martin from Boise St., or David Wilson from Va. Tech, but Worthy fills the much greater need for them.

26. Houston Texans – Stephen Hill, WR Georgia Tech

Houston’s offense suffered greatly when they lost star WR Andre Johnson for an extended period of time. Hill is a big WR at 6’4” and is a speed threat, but he is very raw talent wise. The knock on him is that he played at Georgia Tech which runs the triple-option, which doesn’t get the WR’s involved on offense all that much, calling into question Hill’s route-running ability and technique. Houston could also go with TE Coby Fleener here as well, as they lost TE Joel Dreessen to free agency.

27. New England Patriots (from New Orleans Saints) – Chandler Jones, DE Syracuse

Despite making the Super Bowl last season, New England ranked 31^st in total defense and passing yards allowed. Chandler Jones makes perfect sense here for the Patriots. New England desperately needs a pass rusher and they lost last season’s sack leader DE Mike Anderson in free agency. From what I’m reading, Jones has been rising up draft boards and NFL Network analyst Matt Mayock even has Jones as his 9^th rated prospect. If Jones is still around, there is no way New England will pass on him.

28. Green Bay Packers – Whitney Mercilus, DE/OLB Illinois

Green Bay managed to have an even worst defense last season than the New England Patriots. The Packers were last in total defense and passing yards allowed and were in the button 1/3 in sacks. They need a pass-rusher opposite OLB Clay Matthews to help relieve some of the pressure on the secondary. Mercilus is a 3-4 DE/OLB and can get to the QB. He had 16 sacks and 9 forced fumbles last season for Illinois. Shea McClellin, OLB from Boise St. and Nick Perry, OLB from USC are also viable options.

29. Baltimore Ravens – Lavonte David, OLB Nebraska

Frankly, I don’t even know why I’m making a selection, as there is a good chance the Ravens won’t keep this pick. This is prime territory for teams who have already drafted to jump back into the first-round and pick up another player to fill a need. The Cleveland Browns, St. Louis Rams, Indianapolis Colts and other teams with high second-round picks could look to deal with Baltimore. In the off-chance the Ravens stay here, I have them taking David, as defense in the Ravens bread-and-butter.

30. San Francisco 49ers – Kevin Zeitler, OG Wisconsin

The 49ers did a great thing this free agency and offseason in that they set themselves up to not have to draft for a specific need or position like most teams. The 49ers can go in a number of directions. They can target an OG, add depth to the D-Line, take a WR, or simply select the best talent available. They can go anywhere from WR Stephen Hill if he is around, to sleeper OG Amini Silatolu of D-II Midwestern State, to TE Coby Fleener of Stanford. I think Zeitler is the pick, but I’m not confident in it.

31. New England Patriots – Shea McClellin, OLB Boise St.

The Patriots need a lot of everything on the defensive side of the ball. McClellin seems like a Bellichick kind of guy. He is big with good outside quickness. I can also see the Patriots taking a flier on CB Janoris Jenkins from North Alabama, who is extremely talented but has major off-field issues. Bellichick has a history of taking players with off-field issues and somehow getting them to buy into his system. They could also trade down to acquire another first-round pick in next year’s draft.

32. New York Giants – Coby Fleener, TE Stanford

This is a great value pick here. The Giants lost two TE’s to major knee injuries in their Super Bowl victory, so Fleener does fill a need position despite the Giants finishing the season 5^th in passing offense. Teaming Fleener up with WR’s Hakeem Nicks and Victor Cruz will only enhance their passing attack that much more. You can line Fleener up split-wide or on the line. The Giants could also go with a RB like Doug Martin from Boise St., but neither he nor any of the other RB’s are worth a first-round pick.

Mr. Armchair Speaking –

Master’s Recap and My First NFL Mock Draft of the Draft Season –

I don’t mean to gloat, but does Mr. Armchair know how to pick them of what? Bubba Freaking Watson if you need him, folks. Bubba captured his first Major, winning the Masters in a sudden death playoff over Louis Oosthuizen. Yes, I know I picked Tiger to win or finish in the top 4, and that prediction blew up in my face. In hence sight, I will admit that I took the suckers bet and bought into Tiger’s performance at Bay Hill and thought it would carry over to the Masters. Obviously, that didn’t happen, as Tiger finished with a final score of +5, his worst Masters finish since he missed the cut in 1996. But everyone knows that when you pick Tiger to win a Major, especially the Masters, you always follow it up with another come bet. When you win 14 Majors like Tiger, and in the fashion that he did, you’ve earned the right for everyone to consider you a favor in every Major you enter from here on out. So when making predictions for Major winners, you always go “Tiger and….” My “and” for the Masters was Bubba Watson. 

This was one of the best Masters we’ve seen in recently years, maybe even since El Tigre won his first Masters in 1997 when he went off for -18, winning by 12 strokes. The only another Masters victory that might compare was when Hefty Mickelson won his first Masters, sinking that birdie putt on 18 and then subsequently leaping an inch and a half off of the green in celebration. This Masters also featured two of the best golf shots I’ve ever seen. The first being Louis Oosthuizen’s 2^nd shot on the Par 5 second hole, resulting in a double-eagle; a shot more rare than a hole-in-one. It was the first ever double-eagle shown live in Masters’ history. The second greatest shot being Bubba Watson’s 2^nd shot on the second sudden death playoff hole, a right hook from the pin straw that landed just short of the green but rolled to within 10 feet for a birdie putt. My butt-hole puckered up after watching that shot. But what made this Masters so incredible was that the two golfers battling for the Green Jacket were in the same pairing. We got to watch the battle occur instantaneously, instead of having the leader be waiting in the clubhouse and checking the leaderboard to see if anyone has chased him down; or the leader is in one of the final pairings and has widen the lead to where the leader curses into the 18^th green for victory. 

I was fortunate enough to play in a Masters pool this year. The creator broke up the field and made 10 tiered-groups, based on talent, ranking, and probably of winning. From the top 9 groups, you pick one golfer from each group, and 2 from group 10, seemingly the worst group. From your pool of 11 golfers, you must have at least 5 golfers make the Masters cut. From there, you take your 5 best golfers final scores and that is your cumulative score. Needless to say, your boy here finished 3^rd with a final cumulative score of -24. Thank you, Bubba Watson and Louis Oosthuizen, for playing lights out on Easter Sunday. Here was my stable of golfers: 

Tiger Woods +5

Bubba Watson -10

Nick Watney +3

Louis Oosthuizen -10

Paul Casey – missed cut

Zach Johnson +3

Jim Furyk -3

Robert Garrigus – missed cut

Padraig Harrington -4

Angel Cabrera +3

Stewart Cink +8

Mr. Armchair’s NFL Draft Mock #1 -

Everyone who knows me knows that I love the NFL Draft. It’s one of my seven Christmas’s (Opening Day of Baseball, First Sunday of the NFL Season, Super Bowl Sunday, The Masters, First Round of March Madness, and the Kentucky Derby). We are two weeks out from the NFL Draft, so I thought I would unleash my first mock draft of this draft season, and the week of I will unveil my final mock. 

Mock Draft #1 (Subject to Change) – 

1. Indianapolis Colts – Andrew Luck, QB Stanford

Best QB prospect coming out of college since John Elway. This is a virtual lock. 

2. Washington Redskins (from St. Louis Rams) – Robert Griffin III, QB Baylor

The 1a of this draft class; the Redskins sold the city to move up to get the Heisman winner. 

3. Minnesota Vikings – Matt Kalil, OT USC

Vikings could surprise people and go Justin Blackmon, but Kalil is the Andrew Luck of OT prospects. 

4. Cleveland Browns – Trent Richardson, RB Alabama

His pro day confirmed that he’s worthy of spending a top 5 pick on, a practice that is frowned upon.

5. Tampa Bay Buccaneers – Morris Claiborne, CB LSU

Best CB prospect in the draft. Ronde Barber isn’t getting any younger and Aqib Talib is a head case.

6. St. Louis Rams (from Washington Redskins) – Justin Blackmon, WR Ok St.

The Rams get their wish in trading down from #2 and still getting their WR for Sam Bradford. 

7. Jacksonville Jaguars – Quinton Coples, DE UNC

He’s the most athletic DE in the draft, but off-field issues are a great concern. 

8. Miami Dolphins – Ryan Tannehill, QB Texas AM

Tannehill’s college head coach is now the Dolphins OC. Put two-and-two together. 

9. Carolina Panthers – Dontari Poe, DT Memphis

The winner of the best scouting combine workout. He’s the run-stopping NT they need on D. 

10. Buffalo Bills – Riley Reiff, OT Iowa

They could go WR here as well, but they need to protect their $59 million Harvard man. 

11. Kansas City Chiefs – Fletcher Cox, DT Miss St.

New head coach Romeo Crennel is a defensive guy and Cox is just as athletic as Poe. 

12. Seattle Seahawks – Melvin Ingram, DE/OLB S. Carolina

After swinging and missing on Aaron Curry, the Hawks need to establish a pass-rush. 

13. Arizona Cardinals – Michael Floyd, WR ND

Fitzy can’t do it all himself and after missing on Peyton, this relieves some pressure off Kolb. 

14. Dallas Cowboys – David DeCastro, OG Stanford

If Mr. Jones is truly committed to Romo as his QB, then he needs to keep him upright. 

15. Philadelphia Eagles – Luke Kuechly, ILB BC

He could go higher than this. A tackling machine is perfect for a weak-tackling defense. 

16. New York Jets – Courtney Upshaw, DE/OLB Alabama

Best available talent pick here and you can never have enough pass-rushers. 

17. Cincinnati Bengals (from Oakland Raiders) – Cordy Glenn, OG/OT Georgia

They have a QB in place; now the goal is to keep him on the field and give him time to throw. 

18. San Diego Chargers – Michael Brockers, DT LSU

Their D-line was torched with injuries. This will provide them with more depth. 

19. Chicago Bears – Jonathan Martin, OT Stanford

The Bears will go only as far as Culter will take them. He needs to be on the field for that to happen.

20. Tennessee Titans – Mark Barron, S Alabama

I’ll likely move Barron up in the draft in my final mock, but the Titans are praying he falls to them. 

21. Cincinnati Bengals – Stephon Gilmore, CB S. Carolina

Do you really want to rely on Pacman Jones to be your slot CB? 

22. Cleveland Browns (from Atlanta Falcons) – Kendall Wright, WR Baylor

Step two of improving their awful offense. This gives Colt McCoy another target to throw too. 

23. Detroit Lions – Dre Kirkpatrick, CB Alabama

If the Lions had a decent CB last season, they could have really made some noise in the playoffs. 

24. Pittsburgh Steelers – Dont’a Hightower, ILB Alabama

After being torched by Tebow in the playoffs, the Steelers need an influx of young talent on D. 

25. Denver Broncos – Janoris Jenkins, CB N. Alabama

He is a major talent but has major off-field issues. Hopefully being on a veteran team will cure that. 

26. Houston Texans – Lavonte David, LB Nebraska

They would love Wright here, but they also just traded away DeMarco Ryan to clear cap space. 

27. New England Patriots (from New Orleans) – Chandler Jones, DE Syracuse

Andre Carter remains unsigned and they let Mike Anderson go in free agency. 

28. Green Bay Packers – Nick Perry, DE/OLB USC

Can play both DE and OLB and will provide good depth at those position for the Pack. 

29. Baltimore Ravens – Mike Adams, OT Ohio St.

The Ravens can go a number of ways here, drafting help at LB, S, or C. This pick will change as well. 

30. San Francisco 49ers – Stephen Hill, WR Georgia Tech

I’m not so sure it’s a lock the 49ers take a WR here anymore. They need depth at DL as well. 

31. New England Patriots – Kendall Reyes, NT UCONN

The Pats need help on defense in the worst way and Ty Warren isn’t getting younger either. 

32. New York Giants – Andre Branch, DE Clemson

The Giants will probably lose Osi to free agency and their butter-and-bread is their pass rush. 

Mr. Armchair Speaks –